[Cracked Sidewalks]Mayo, Anderson, Thomas 3 Overachievers Heading into Crucial Noon Game

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Mayo, Anderson, Thomas 3 Overachievers Heading into Crucial Noon Game

Todd Mayo, Juan Anderson and Jake Thomas are the three Marquette players who have exceeded their Value Add projections this season heading into a game at an even more disappointing Butler. The opportunities are there for someone to step up down the stretch to give the team a run and shot at extending their string of bids, but they almost must win every winnable game such as today.

Two years ago I projected this team as an Elite 8 team led by JC transfer Jameel McKay, Vander Blue, and others on the roster. The signing of Duane Wilson seemed to give MU a chance at a point guard to take over from Junior. The fact that those three players transferred, left to tryout for the pros and were injured, respectively, took almost 10 points of Projected Value Add and that is enough to drop a team from 30th to 130th.

The team was projected to have perhaps the best depth in basketball with NINE players in the top 20% (top 800) of all college players. However, in addition to the loss of those three players, Steve Taylor, JuJuan Johnson, Chris Otule and most disappointingly Jamil Wilson have not even been in the top 30% (Top 1200 players).

The four players who have been strong according to Value Add are Davante Gardner, Todd Mayo, Deonte Burton and Juan Anderson. While Gardner's rank of 283rd is very good, he is nowhere near his projected place as the 50th most valuable player in the country.

So let's try looking at the glass as half full. Jamil's potential is apparent to everyone. If he lights it up, Jake pulls out some games with downtown shots, and most importantly Buzz can figure out if he can get some shooting out of the point guard position to prevent all of the double teams on Davante and Jamil, then the team does have the firepower to turn it on and beat a lot of teams.

Marquette is a one to five point underdog in each of the next three games according to www.kenpom.com. If MU can get two wins in these games - at Butler and Georgetown and at home against Villanova - there would start to be a ray of hope of a bid, so let's see who can step up starting at Noon tomorrow against a Butler team that MU last beat to make it three straight Sweet 16 games. Today may be a bit of a do-or-die as well, so GO Marquette!


<style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {  border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif  font-size: 12px; }  .tableizer-table td {  padding: 4px;  margin: 3px;  border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th {  background-color: #104E8B;   color: #FFF;  font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Marquette Roster</th><th>Class</th><th>2014 Value Add</th><th>Rank</th><th>Projected</th><th>Projected Rank</th><th>Over/Under perform</th></tr><tr><td>Gardner, Davante</td><td>4 Sr</td><td>3.22</td><td>283</td><td>6.82</td><td>50</td><td>-3.6</td></tr><tr><td>Mayo, Todd</td><td>3 Jr</td><td>2.26</td><td>504</td><td>0.94</td><td>1670</td><td>1.32</td></tr><tr><td>Burton, Deonte</td><td>1 Fr</td><td>1.74</td><td>685</td><td>2.71</td><td>620</td><td>-0.97</td></tr><tr><td>Anderson, Juan</td><td>3 Jr</td><td>1.7</td><td>700</td><td>1.28</td><td>1363</td><td>0.42</td></tr><tr><td>Otule, Chris</td><td>4 Sr</td><td>0.9</td><td>1216</td><td>2.3</td><td>754</td><td>-1.4</td></tr><tr><td>Wilson, Jamil</td><td>4 Sr</td><td>0.9</td><td>1219</td><td>4.69</td><td>165</td><td>-3.79</td></tr><tr><td>Thomas, Jake</td><td>4 Sr</td><td>0.63</td><td>1498</td><td>0.48</td><td>2236</td><td>0.15</td></tr><tr><td>Johnson, JaJuan</td><td>1 Fr</td><td>0.61</td><td>1519</td><td>3.39</td><td>435</td><td>-2.78</td></tr><tr><td>Wilson, Derrick</td><td>3 Jr</td><td>0.31</td><td>1975</td><td>0.94</td><td>1667</td><td>-0.63</td></tr><tr><td>Dawson, John</td><td>1 Fr</td><td>0.25</td><td>2071</td><td>0.88</td><td>1727</td><td>-0.63</td></tr><tr><td>Taylor, Steve</td><td>2 So</td><td>0.15</td><td>2303</td><td>3.04</td><td>518</td><td>-2.89</td></tr><tr><td>Not playing</td><td></td><td>12.67</td><td></td><td>27.47</td><td></td><td>-14.8</td></tr><tr><td>Wilson, Duane</td><td>1 Fr</td><td>injured</td><td>NR</td><td>2.48</td><td>685</td><td>-2.48</td></tr><tr><td>McKay, Jameel</td><td>3 Jr</td><td>transfer</td><td>NR</td><td>3.44</td><td>433</td><td>-3.44</td></tr><tr><td>Blue, Vander</td><td>4 Sr</td><td>Israel</td><td>NR</td><td>3.94</td><td>228</td><td>-3.94</td></tr></tbody></table>


Source: Mayo, Anderson, Thomas 3 Overachievers Heading into Crucial Noon Game

[UticaBusBarn]

Great to have 'bama back offering real data for consideration and discussion.

My take, based on these numbers, is that Coach Williams has the rotation correct ... except for his point guard who is below what can be kindly characterized as modest projection for this year. (Let's skip the every other game of "the lights are on, but no one is home" J. Wilson.)

The only way to get those few extra points to win, as I see it, is the "Buycks Solution." That is, Mayo ought to be moved to point. Flaws and all, he can (at least) dribble, pass and shoot.

Even with this somewhat flawed Mayo "fix", it would then seem that the inside game would open-up and take care of itself.

[bamamarquettefan]

Gosh, you are absolutely right. Not about me being back LOL, but about Mayo at the point.

There would definitely be some moments where he would look ahead and lose the ball and critics would say "Why did Utica think Mayo should be at the point?" but Buycks really was a huge positive despite occasionally whipping a bullet past Otule and out of bounds.

Can you imagine the guy guarding Mayo slipping back to double team Jamil or Davante and Todd having to make tough decisions like, "Do I just bury the three from the top of the key, or to I step up to 17 feet and make it a long free throw for 2?"

Buzz was willing to try Jamil at the point and admittedly there were some turnovers, so maybe he would do it.

BTW, www.kenpom.com has another amazing breakthrough (go there and pay the $20 for the year to look at all this stuff!). I believe his program just assumes the smallest player (maybe some consideration for assists) on the court is the point guard, etc. He shows the percent of the time each lineup has been on the floor, so he assumes JaJuan and Todd have played the point when Derrick is out and I'm not sure why Dawson doesn't show up - but still fascinating to look at his breakdown:

PG, SG, SF, PF, C, Pct,
12 Derrick Wilson, 23 Jake Thomas, 0 Jamil Wilson, 10 Juan Anderson, 42 Chris Otule, 14.7%
5 JaJuan Johnson, 23 Jake Thomas, 30 Deonte Burton, 0 Jamil Wilson, 54 Davante Gardner, 6.5%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 5 JaJuan Johnson, 30 Deonte Burton, 54 Davante Gardner, 5.3%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 0 Jamil Wilson, 10 Juan Anderson, 54 Davante Gardner, 3.9%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 5 JaJuan Johnson, 30 Deonte Burton, 42 Chris Otule, 3.3%
4 Todd Mayo, 30 Deonte Burton, 0 Jamil Wilson, 10 Juan Anderson, 54 Davante Gardner, 2.9%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 23 Jake Thomas, 0 Jamil Wilson, 42 Chris Otule, 2.8%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 30 Deonte Burton, 10 Juan Anderson, 54 Davante Gardner, 2.7%
12 Derrick Wilson, 4 Todd Mayo, 23 Jake Thomas, 0 Jamil Wilson, 54 Davante Gardner, 2.5%
4 Todd Mayo, 23 Jake Thomas, 30 Deonte Burton, 0 Jamil Wilson, 54 Davante Gardner, 2.5%

[real chili 83]

Nice to see you back John.  Good stuff.

[Slim]

Nice to see you back John.  Good stuff.

+1
Welcome back. 

[tower912]

So, Jake, Juan, and Todd are overachieving, while Jamil and Davante are far underachieving.    My eyes have not deceived me.   

[NersEllenson]

So, Jake, Juan, and Todd are overachieving, while Jamil and Davante are far underachieving.    My eyes have not deceived me.   

In my view, only Mayo exceeding expectations/overachieving has any merit - as the benchmark from last year's performance by Jake and Juan was virtually nothing/no contribution.

Far easier for Jamil and Davante to "underachieve" as they put up very good numbers last year.  Considering Mayo has basically replaced Blue's production - pretty hard to figure out just how Davante and Jamil have regressed so much...must be because Trent Lockett isn't on the team.

[GGGG]

In my view, only Mayo exceeding expectations/overachieving has any merit - as the benchmark from last year's performance by Jake and Juan was virtually nothing/no contribution.

Far easier for Jamil and Davante to "underachieve" as they put up very good numbers last year.  Considering Mayo has basically replaced Blue's production - pretty hard to figure out just how Davante and Jamil have regressed so much...must be because Trent Lockett isn't on the team.

Let's see how much longer Ners trots out this line after today's game.

[NersEllenson]

Let's see how much longer Ners trots out this line after today's game.

Nice cherry pick Sultan.  Blue laid some eggs last year too...all while getting 33 minutes a game, and playing alongside a better running mate...and not a walk on shooting guard next to him either.  But, yes, Todd had an awful game today.  Just like most of Derrick Wilson's games all year.

[GGGG]

Nice cherry pick Sultan.  Blue laid some eggs last year too...all while getting 33 minutes a game, and playing alongside a better running mate...and not a walk on shooting guard next to him either.  But, yes, Todd had an awful game today.  Just like most of Derrick Wilson's games all year.

No.  Your premise was wrong from the very beginning.

[NersEllenson]

No.  Your premise was wrong from the very beginning.

And what premise is that?  That the biggest difference between this year's team and last year's team is having lost Junior Cadougan, and him being replaced by Derrick Wilson?  Yeah..I'll stand by that premise, particularly when your two best players are WORSE as seniors than they were as Juniors - Gardner and Jamil.

[GGGG]

And what premise is that?  That the biggest difference between this year's team and last year's team is having lost Junior Cadougan, and him being replaced by Derrick Wilson?  Yeah..I'll stand by that premise, particularly when your two best players are WORSE as seniors than they were as Juniors - Gardner and Jamil.

No.  The premise that Mayo is replacing what Blue brought last year.

[ecompt]

Funny how all three absolutely sucked today.