Our losses in perspective (again)

[Windyplayer]

According to the AP poll released earlier today...four of our losses have come to top 20 teams (Creighton at #20, OSU at #11, SDSU at #10, and Wisconsin at #3), and two losses came to to teams receiving votes (UNM and Xavier). Our lone loss to a team not listed somewhere in the rankings is ASU who is pretty darn tought at home--they have one loss there all year to Washington--a team that just knocked off then #15 Colorado by 17.

Yes, it's been a rough first half of the season, but the team is showing signs of life and we have 0 bad losses (we haven't been able to say that for the last few years at this point in the season). We haven't buried ourselves, only made it a little more difficult to snag that bid without any marquee wins yet. They'll come--we have some delicious home cooking coming up in mid-to-late February and a huge game in a few weeks against Nova.

[CTWarrior]

All good points. 

Two of our losses (Ohio State, at Creighton) were outright stinkers regardless of the quality of the opponents.  We've had those in years past, too (at Florida, for example).  Each other individual loss (out west to San Diego State and New Mexico and at Arizona State, Xavier and Wisconsin in competitive games) is understandable.  But losing ALL of them is not so good.  Throw in GW and we are only 1-7 against teams that would have a chance for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  Also, what concerns me (and maybe others) is that, other than GW, we haven't been impressive in our wins, either.

[Windyplayer]

All good points. 

Two of our losses (Ohio State, at Creighton) were outright stinkers regardless of the quality of the opponents.  We've had those in years past, too (at Florida, for example).  Each other individual loss (out west to San Diego State and New Mexico and at Arizona State, Xavier and Wisconsin in competitive games) is understandable.  But losing ALL of them is not so good.  Throw in GW and we are only 1-7 against teams that would have a chance for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  Also, what concerns me (and maybe others) is that, other than GW, we haven't been impressive in our wins, either.

I think we should take comfort in the fact that we've been so competitive againt solid compeition rather than the fact that we've squeaked by a few lessser opponents. We know we can play with the big boys, it's a just a matter of finding those productive rotations--Buzz is getting close--to pull out some of these games.

[Windyplayer]

One more point...I think we forget that the field is 68 teams. We've been spoiled with some higher seeds over the last few years and our expectations are aligned with those seeds. But, we forget that teams that get in on the tail end have a lot of Ls. Hell, at this point, I'd be happy with a play-in game and that's more than doable for this squad. Of course, a #10 or #11 seed would be preferred...

[jsglow]

Everything said is true.  I think we'd all feel quite different if we had gone 2-2 rather than 0-4 in our combined ASU, SDSU, New Mex and Xavier games.  I'd personally argue that an impressive performance and win this Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse is very important.

[MerrittsMustache]

All good points.  

Two of our losses (Ohio State, at Creighton) were outright stinkers regardless of the quality of the opponents.  We've had those in years past, too (at Florida, for example).  Each other individual loss (out west to San Diego State and New Mexico and at Arizona State, Xavier and Wisconsin in competitive games) is understandable.  But losing ALL of them is not so good.  Throw in GW and we are only 1-7 against teams that would have a chance for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  Also, what concerns me (and maybe others) is that, other than GW, we haven't been impressive in our wins, either.

Looking "impressive" in wins means nothing. Whether MU beat Seton Hall by 1 point or by 40 points, it doesn't matter at season's end. All that matters is that MU wins.

Honestly, MU fans have been spoiled in these last few seasons because MU has always pulled out a handful of tough games. As has been pointed out, MU has no "bad" losses this season. However, we're used to seeing MU pull out games like the ones against SDSU, New Mexico and Xavier.

MU has 7 winnable home games left. If they can hold serve, that gets this team to 17 wins. Get at least 4 on the road (very doable - Butler, Gtown, StJ, SHU, DePaul, Nova, PC) and things all of a sudden aren't looking so bad heading into the BET.  

Looking at the 4 remaining January games, I really think we'll have a better idea of where this team stands (in terms of postseason aspirations) by the end of the month.

[Windyplayer]

Looking at the 4 remaining January games, I really think we'll have a better idea of where this team stands (in terms of postseason aspirations) by the end of the month.

+1.

[Badgerhater]

MU cashed in plenty of good basketball karma vs. Davidson last year.  Have to rebuild that.  If that means losing to ASU in a heartbreaker on the road in the non-conference schedule, then so be it.   

[willie warrior]

I think we should take comfort in the fact that we've been so competitive againt solid compeition rather than the fact that we've squeaked by a few lessser opponents. We know we can play with the big boys, it's a just a matter of finding those productive rotations--Buzz is getting close--to pull out some of these games.

Yeah we sure have shown we can play with the big boys judging by our blowout by Creighton and the thorough ass kicking we took at home against OSU, who just lost at home to Iowa. Nothing wrong with Iowa, but they have less talent than we do, so that is just one more team that will make the dance over us. And it is funny you say Buzz is getting close to pull out some of these games, when all the losses seem to be blamed on the players.

Face it, we will need to go to at least 21 wins with two to three quality wins to make the dance. Without looking at the schedule that means we have to go about 11-3 rest of way, just to get to the bubble. While not impossible, it is very unlikely to happen given the way we have played thus far. Close losses do not mean anything to making the dance without about 3 quality wins.

[willie warrior]

+1.

Thank you captain obvious.

[CTWarrior]

Looking "impressive" in wins means nothing. Whether MU beat Seton Hall by 1 point or by 40 points, it doesn't matter at season's end. All that matters is that MU wins.

It doesn't mean anything in terms of your RPI, but it does say something about the quality of your team.  We have not looked like and NCAA tournament team so far this season, and part of the reason we think that is because we have had a harder time with DePaul and Seton Hall at home than you would expect an NCAA quality team to have.  Also, if you feel close wins don't matter as long as you win, you can't use the fact that we've had some close losses as a positive factor, either.

[The Process]

Thank you captain obvious.

So Willie... Where do you think we finish the year?

[MerrittsMustache]

It doesn't mean anything in terms of your RPI, but it does say something about the quality of your team.  We have not looked like and NCAA tournament team so far this season, and part of the reason we think that is because we have had a harder time with DePaul and Seton Hall at home than you would expect an NCAA quality team to have.  Also, if you feel close wins don't matter as long as you win, you can't use the fact that we've had some close losses as a positive factor, either.

I never suggested using close losses a positive factor. If MU experiences a "good" loss, it also doesn't matter if it's by 2 points or 20 points.

[willie warrior]

So Willie... Where do you think we finish the year?

18-13, and that is optimistic, colored by my blue and gold glasses. I guess that puts us at 10-8 in conference. Sorry--just don't see much this year, based on play thus far.

[Windyplayer]

18-13, and that is optimistic, colored by my blue and gold glasses. I guess that puts us at 10-8 in conference. Sorry--just don't see much this year, based on play thus far.

Apply the "Willie" deviation factor...and [computer noise calculations], we should finish at 21-10.

[willie warrior]

Apply the "Willie" deviation factor...and [computer noise calculations], we should finish at 21-10.

reading is fundamental. Never said we should finish 21-10. I said it would take at least 21-10 with 3 quality wins to make the dance. But I wouldn,t expect you to get that.

[Windyplayer]

reading is fundamental. Never said we should finish 21-10. I said it would take at least 21-10 with 3 quality wins to make the dance. But I wouldn,t expect you to get that.

I was only accounting for your hardcore pessism, and as a result, added 3 wins to your "blue and gold" prediction to arrive at a more probable finish. It was merely in jest, and that comment was in no way related to your previous post. But yes, I agree, reading is fundamental--Bo does, too.

[4everwarriors]

By puttin' our losses in perspective, I'm figurin' we didn't win any of 'em

[Windyplayer]

By puttin' our losses in perspective, I'm figurin' we didn't win any of 'em

This isn't just an exercise to make us feel better. The Selection Committee looks at losses from many angles, obviously--so it's worth evaluating them and what they mean for our tourney aspirations.

[willie warrior]

I was only accounting for your hardcore pessism, and as a result, added 3 wins to your "blue and gold" prediction to arrive at a more probable finish. It was merely in jest, and that comment was in no way related to your previous post. But yes, I agree, reading is fundamental--Bo does, too.

Hmmmm....hardcore pessimism...that is a mouthful. Judging by performance this year there is plenty of reason for pessimism, and little reason for mushroom optimism.

[Windyplayer]

there is plenty of reason for pessimism

When isn't there? Let a little light into your life, Willie. Not a mushroom full, just a little.

[Atticus]

Let's say we sweep SHU, DePaul, Butler, Providence, and SJU. That equals ten wins, obviously. Yet, it's looking like none of them are against tournament teams. Georgetown isn't even a lock and they lost Trawick for a couple of weeks. I think we have to beat nova once and it would help to beat creighton at home. Of course, we also have to account for a 'WTF' loss that happens every year in conference play. 

[keefe]

According to the AP poll released earlier today...four of our losses have come to top 20 teams (Creighton at #20, OSU at #11, SDSU at #10, and Wisconsin at #3), and two losses came to to teams receiving votes (UNM and Xavier). Our lone loss to a team not listed somewhere in the rankings is ASU who is pretty darn tought at home--they have one loss there all year to Washington--a team that just knocked off then #15 Colorado by 17.

Yes, it's been a rough first half of the season, but the team is showing signs of life and we have 0 bad losses (we haven't been able to say that for the last few years at this point in the season). We haven't buried ourselves, only made it a little more difficult to snag that bid without any marquee wins yet. They'll come--we have some delicious home cooking coming up in mid-to-late February and a huge game in a few weeks against Nova.

I appreciate a man who can find the beauty in anything

[Archies Bat]

I appreciate a man who can find the beauty in anything

You still have photos from your parties in McCormick?

[keefe]

You still have photos from your time in McCormick?

No, I think that is the entrance to the Cobeen Chow Hall.

But I have to hand it to Windy. He's a man who truly sees the MuuMuu Half Full










As they say, If the MuuMuu fits...