+/- DePaul Game

[NersEllenson]

#1 It is surprising to me that the starting combo forward is the best option as the back-up PG. MU isn't really deep at forward either, so regardless of how Jamil actually plays, there is a significant opportunity cost as well. Plus, Jamil looked bad when he was asked to play true PG. He's great at entry passes. He understands the offense. He's good at the top of the key. He's bad at bringing the ball up. He's bad at protecting when he has to put it on the floor in the back court.

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

#3 Is it possible that you have just over estimated how good JD is right now? He might be MU's all time leading scorer in 4 years (I haven idea), but RIGHT NOW, it appears like the coach doesn't think he's ready for meaningful minutes.

Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.

[Norm]

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

I missed this article by Paint Brushes, but the author gives no information as to how he determines the possible minutes played for each player. Take Otule for instance. In his freshman season he sat out the first 10 games of the season with a foot injury. He was available for the next 25 games but only saw action in 9 of them, garnering 60 minutes of floor time. According to the author, there were only 360 possible minutes for Otule to play that year - really???? If you only count the 9 games he actually played in, and only apply 40 minutes possible to play in, that's 360 minutes. But what about the other 16 games, at 40 minutes each, for an additional 640 minutes? Heck, Otule played in the Big East Tournament game against St. John's that year on March 11. Why is the author of the article not counting all the DNP's that Otule racked up his freshman year?

Jeronne Maymon also sat out the NC State game before he transferred, playing in 9 out of a possible 10 games, for 400 minutes available, not the 360 listed.

[Henry Sugar]

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.

Well, truthfully, I don't know if Dawson is ready to contribute or not.

Nobody on the internet does.

(that's the whole point)

[mu03eng]

Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.

This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen

[CTWarrior]

CT, there is a way out of the dilemma.   Start Todd or JJJ for Juan.   The offense looked so good against DePaul down the stretch because having Jamil, Todd, and Davante out there opened space for Jake.   Putting a second offensive threat out there to start the game creates space for Oxtule, and can create just enough help to get Jake open looks.   

That does improve the offense, but a defensive alignment of Gardner, Mayo, Thomas and the Wilsons will be troublesome, particularly on the defensive boards.  And it doesn't change the 4 on 5 dynamic on offense, just that the 4 are better.  The proposal does make good good sense, but like I said, it is not a good solution, just one of the best of the not so good solutions.

[NersEllenson]

I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.

Sugar, can you provide updated season efficiency ratings on the team?

[NersEllenson]

This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen

This is a fair point, and one I can agree with - my only frustration is that even if recruited as a 3rd string PG, Dawson truly hasn't been worse than Derrick, or if you want to split hairs, perhaps you could say he's been slightly worse.  My contention is that with the disparity that small between a guy 6 months into the program and a guy 3 years in the program with experience in roughly 40 games prior to his season - it shouldn't even be a debate...or questionable as to who's better - and if there is that question - you have little to lose if you get game experience for your freshman...and in so doing, he might just surprise the coaching staff and spark the team that desperately needs one.  If he doesn't, you lose nothing, return him to DNP status, and wait till next year..

[tower912]

That does improve the offense, but a defensive alignment of Gardner, Mayo, Thomas and the Wilsons will be troublesome, particularly on the defensive boards.  And it doesn't change the 4 on 5 dynamic on offense, just that the 4 are better.  The proposal does make good good sense, but like I said, it is not a good solution, just one of the best of the not so good solutions.

Or, it is time to start Deonte in place of Juan.     I see Otule still starting, as he can get a few points on offense and rebounds well.   Jake and Derrick both rebound better than they should, so I don't see as big a let down on the defensive boards as you do.  I just think that the starting lineup needs one more attacking offensive player.   I would prefer Todd as a 3rd guard starting to spread the floor and have someone who can get into the lane starting.   He gets into the lane and suddenly Jamil and Jake have catch and shoot 3 opportunities.  Derrick doesn't look as bad because the defense isn't sloughing off elsewhere, he gets into the lane and makes the defense move just a little and suddenly the offense is in sync.   

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.

Rats.

Well, I'll leave it for you and the PT guys to hash it out.

IMO, Buzz does play guys in the early part of the season, but has always shortened his bench quite a bit in conference play. I've actually never loved his rotations, but the results have been good, so I've always just deferred to Buzz's judgement.

Also, I don't know how you account for this, but Jae, DJO and Buycks all played a lot in their first seasons. While they aren't frosh, certainly they still had steep learning curves to learn MU's system, so first year players do have an opportunity to get minutes... but they have to earn them.


 

[tower912]

Check out the PT article regarding Burton's playing time.  He's getting 18.3 mpg over his last 8.   Good for a frosh without a position.   If you read the article, you gain insight as to why his playing time is increasing, but not JJJ or JD.

[ATL MU Warrior]

This is a fair point, and one I can agree with - my only frustration is that even if recruited as a 3rd string PG, Dawson truly hasn't been worse than Derrick, or if you want to split hairs, perhaps you could say he's been slightly worse.  My contention is that with the disparity that small between a guy 6 months into the program and a guy 3 years in the program with experience in roughly 40 games prior to his season - it shouldn't even be a debate...or questionable as to who's better - and if there is that question - you have little to lose if you get game experience for your freshman...and in so doing, he might just surprise the coaching staff and spark the team that desperately needs one.  If he doesn't, you lose nothing, return him to DNP status, and wait till next year..

But it's not a debate or questionable as to who is better.  That's the whole point. 

[Avenue Commons]

Marquette is now 9-6 with 3 Ls to No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 21 San Diego State and a 4th to Creighton in Omaha. 1-1 in conference. Put me in the "the worst is behind us" camp.

Like to see more of Mayo.

[The Equalizer]

This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen

Let's assume you're right on this. 

Why take another HS senior who by all reports was even more raw and needed even more grooming than Duane Wilson? Why not go with a JUCo transfer or a graduate transfer?   

It seems rather unbelievable that in September of 2012 Buzz had seen enough of Derrick Wilson and Duane Wilson to know neither would be good enough take over as PG gap in the fall of 2013, but that John Dawson was the most credible option to fill that gap.

[NersEllenson]

But it's not a debate or questionable as to who is better.  That's the whole point. 

It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what?  Derrick's numbers are about as awful as you can get.  Give Dawson 30 minutes of run at the point, and I highly doubt he'd perform worse than Derrick - it is next to impossible to play more poorly than Derrick has.  Sorry ATL, but that's just the truth.  But, I guess 2 of 6 from the Free Throw line, 0-1 from the field, and 3 assists and 2 turnovers against the worst team in the Big East in 31 minutes of action is a stat line you feel would be hard to exceed??  Cmon Man.

[ATL MU Warrior]

It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what?  Derrick's numbers are about as awful as you can get.  Give Dawson 30 minutes of run at the point, and I highly doubt he'd perform worse than Derrick - it is next to impossible to play more poorly than Derrick has.  Sorry ATL, but that's just the truth.  But, I guess 2 of 6 from the Free Throw line, 0-1 from the field, and 3 assists and 2 turnovers against the worst team in the Big East in 31 minutes of action is a stat line you feel would be hard to exceed??  Cmon Man.

Then you should really send Buzz another email because he obviously agrees with me.  Dawson will be lucky to get 30 minutes the rest of the season.  There must be a reason for that and the reason is that Buzz thinks Derrick is better.  This isn't that hard Ners. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what? 

If Dawson is equal or better than Wilson, why is Jamil the back-up PG?

[augoman]

I think the flaw in the stats is the lack of consideration for the combination on the floor.  If all Todd's minutes come with Jamil at point and Deonte at the 3, Davante at the 4, I would think the points per minute SHOULD be higher than the points given. 

[NersEllenson]

If Dawson is equal or better than Wilson, why is Jamil the back-up PG?

That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.

[Wojo'sMojo]

That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.

I'm going to go with hyper loyal to Derrick. There is absolutely no way that Dawson would not be able to match or exceed Derrick's production given the same playing time. If he was unable to, we really wasted a scholarship as we are about as bad as we can get at the pg spot right now and have nowhere to go but up. I have always loved Buzz and still do, but sometimes I feel like my head is going to explode with some of the decisions he's making this year...Namely Derrick's playing time and JJJ's lack of.

[NersEllenson]

I'm going to go with hyper loyal to Derrick. There is absolutely no way that Dawson would not be able to match or exceed Derrick's production given the same playing time. If he was unable to, we really wasted a scholarship as we are about as bad as we can get at the pg spot right now and have nowhere to go but up. I have always loved Buzz and still do, but sometimes I feel like my head is going to explode with some of the decisions he's making this year...Namely Derrick's playing time and JJJ's lack of.

Totally agree with all points.  Still think Buzz is best thing to happen to MU since Al for sure.....just wish he'd roll Dawson out for a few games of 25 minutes and at least get good handle on how he'd do in a game situation, and how the team would perform. 

Only thing I can conclude is that like last year with Lockett - when many were calling for Lockett to be benched - that by the end of the year, the loyalty paid off and Lockett made solid contributions to the team in March.  Suspect Buzz is hoping like hell the same will happen with Derrick - yet I think it is far more likely given Derrick's position of PG and what he has shown thus far.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.

Truthfully, Dawson hasn't been awful in games (he's better than Bart Miller!), but the sample size is pretty tiny.

However, I trust that the coaching staff sees the players enough to know who should play.

I find it hard to believe that MU has some sort of secret weapon on the bench in Dawson.

I remember when everybody was excited about Niv Berkowitz because MU was DYING for some back-up PG help. "He's gotta be better than Hanley or Champman" we all thought. Turns out, he wasn't.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Totally agree with all points.  Still think Buzz is best thing to happen to MU since Al for sure.....just wish he'd roll Dawson out for a few games of 25 minutes and at least get good handle on how he'd do in a game situation, and how the team would perform.  

EDIT:

Forget it. I've spent far too much time on this topic. If somebody actually cares, they can read one of the 50 other posts I've made about John Dawson.

New Years resolution: Don't say the same sh*t over and over on a message board.

[Wojo'sMojo]

EDIT:

Forget it. I've spent far too much time on this topic. If somebody actually cares, they can read one of the 50 other posts I've made about John Dawson.

New Years resolution: Don't say the same sh*t over and over on a message board.

I'll admit that I have commented in numerous John Dawson threads/Derrick Wilson threads. This is a fun topic to discuss because it bears heavy consequences...the main key to our season I believe. I personally think that with Wilson as our main pg option we will be destined for the NIT. I hope I'm wrong and will enjoy another Golden Eagles tourney bid! However, I don't see it happening. If Derrick is our best option at pg which he may be, im gonna hope to win the NIT and start fresh next year.