First 6 Conference Games Tough Stretch

[WayOfTheWarrior]

I look at the first 6 conference games, 4 of them being on the road, and I see a rocky start. I hope we don't dig ourselves into too big a hole early. It sure would be nice to go into that huge home showdown against Nova with a 4-2 record and a couple road wins.

Merry Christmas, looking forward to Saturday.

[MarquetteDano]

Looking at those games:

At Creighton:  Winning in Omaha with that environment would be tall order.  Would be nice to get a 'W' but I would be surprised

Home vs. DePaul:  given the non-con about as must win as they come

At Xavier:  Tough to win in Cincy as well.  Best chance for a road win of the first six

Home vs. Seton Hall:  like DePaul, must win unless we win one of the first two road games

At Butler:  Not liking this matchup in Indy.  Really good defensive team with our average offense

At G'Town:  Another tough matchup on the road with their defense

I think a realistic goal the first six would be 3-3.  Not one easy road game in the bunch so steal one of those on the road.  If we are 2-4 after the first six we are in trouble.  If we are 4-2 we will be looking good.

[Texas Western]

The silver lining so far this year is that,with the exception of the Ohio State game, all of our losses have been close games on the road. I think that gives the team some valuable experience going into the big east. All of the conference games are going to be tough this year and non are guaranteed wins. The Creighton game is extremely important, a win there will do a lot for this team.

[MU82]

Home loss to either DePaul or Seton Hall would be catastrophic (in a basketball sense).

We won't be able to survive many home losses, period. We certainly can't lose at home to the likes of them.

So we won't lose to 'em. And we'll steal a road win or two during this stretch, too.

[MUFlutieEffect]

Home loss to either DePaul or Seton Hall would be catastrophic (in a basketball sense).

We won't be able to survive many home losses, period. We certainly can't lose at home to the likes of them.

So we won't lose to 'em. And we'll steal a road win or two during this stretch, too.

This may very well be my favorite Scoop post of all time.  Optimistic yet realistic, and takes into account that, despite what the 500 of us on this site during the holidays might think, nothing in basketball is truly "catastrophic."  We need more like this - thank you.

[willie warrior]

If we go 4-2, then we will likely still need to go 10-2 over the remainder to make the Dance. That would give us 14-4 and likely win the Conference regular season. Don't see that the way we are playing now, but things can change with Buzz we trust and our stud Guard lineup.

[martyconlonontherun]

If we go 4-2, then we will likely still need to go 10-2 over the remainder to make the Dance. That would give us 14-4 and likely win the Conference regular season. Don't see that the way we are playing now, but things can change with Buzz we trust and our stud Guard lineup.

As much as I disagree with WW, even if we get 4 in in this "tough" stretch, our final twelve games include 2 against Nova, 2 against Prov, 1 against Butler, 1 against Creighton.

It's weird, I think we have a good conference  but only 1 team right now in the top 35. We need to get better fast if we want to make the tourney.

[bilsu]

The silver lining so far this year is that,with the exception of the Ohio State game, all of our losses have been close games on the road. I think that gives the team some valuable experience going into the big east. All of the conference games are going to be tough this year and non are guaranteed wins. The Creighton game is extremely important, a win there will do a lot for this team.

Buzz's prior teams were good at winning close games. This team so far has not.

[MarquetteDano]

As much as I disagree with WW, even if we get 4 in in this "tough" stretch, our final twelve games include 2 against Nova, 2 against Prov, 1 against Butler, 1 against Creighton.

It's weird, I think we have a good conference  but only 1 team right now in the top 35. We need to get better fast if we want to make the tourney.

I think we need to be realistic.  This team is probably not going 14-4 in conference.  If we go 4-2 in the first six games that will be fantastic. I think 3-3 may be more realistic.

In the next twelve, if we could hold serve at home and win some winnable road games 13-5 is possible, 12-6 more likely.  If we go 13-5, we only need to win one BET game to go dancing.  If we go 12-6, we need to win at least two BET games to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

It is very possible this team could be 11-7 as well.  If that happens, we have to least to get the championship game in the BET.  And even that may not be enough.

It is going to be interesting ride.  Buckle up campers!

[Hards Alumni]

I think we need to be realistic.  This team is probably not going 14-4 in conference.  If we go 4-2 in the first six games that will be fantastic. I think 3-3 may be more realistic.

In the next twelve, if we could hold serve at home and win some winnable road games 13-5 is possible, 12-6 more likely.  If we go 13-5, we only need to win one BET game to go dancing.  If we go 12-6, we need to win at least two BET games to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

It is very possible this team could be 11-7 as well.  If that happens, we have to least to get the championship game in the BET.  And even that may not be enough.

It is going to be interesting ride.  Buckle up campers!

20 games is usually the magic number... We will probably need 12 wins.

[MarquetteDano]

20 games is usually the magic number... We will probably need 12 wins.

If we go 12-6 and lose in the first round of the BET, we will be sweating big time on Selection Sunday.  Particularly if we win our home games and our away victories are all against bottom feeders.

Could we get in with the above scenario?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

I think this year 22 wins has everyone arguing what seed we will be versus wondering whether we are going to Dayton or not.

[tower912]

Win all 9 at home, 4-5 on the road, I have MU at 13-5 in conference.   

[willie warrior]

20 games is usually the magic number... We will probably need 12 wins.

20 games is not the Magic Number. There are plenty of teams every year who win more than 20 and are left out and a number of teams with less than 20 who make it dues to Conference SOS and quality wins.

IMO 20-11 regular season record without 3 quality wins won't. Not sure where 3 quality wins will come from because the losses to teams we have already incurred will not help us. 14-4 in conference should get us in.

[bilsu]

This is the good and the bad of our situation. According to ESPN only Villanova has beaten a top 25 team. Depending upon whether you are using the AP Top 25 or the USA Top 25 Villanova is 2-0 or 1-0 against top 25 teams. Seton Hall has not played any top 25 teams. Providence, Butler, Creighton, Xavier and DePaul are all 0-1 against top 25 AP. Xavier has not played a top 25 team using USA top 25. St John's and Georgetown are 0-2 against top 25. MU is 0-3 against top 25. So basically taking into account games against top 25 there is not that much difference between our record and the rest of the conference outside of Villanova. Villanova plays #2 Syracuse and Providence plays #23 Umass. The Big East is 2-12 (1-11 USA poll) against top 25 teams with two more games left. The good is that MU can beat most teams in our conference the bad news is that, if they do not finish in top 3 they are not likely to get an NCAA tournament bid.

[Hards Alumni]

20 games is not the Magic Number. There are plenty of teams every year who win more than 20 and are left out and a number of teams with less than 20 who make it dues to Conference SOS and quality wins.

IMO 20-11 regular season record without 3 quality wins won't. Not sure where 3 quality wins will come from because the losses to teams we have already incurred will not help us. 14-4 in conference should get us in.

See why included the word USUALLY?

Reading is fundamental.

[martyconlonontherun]

See why included the word USUALLY?

Reading is fundamental.

Second time in a row I agree with WW. You followed it up by saying we will need 12. The context it is in makes it sound like you think 20 would get us in usually (as in this is a normal year).

[willie warrior]

See why included the word USUALLY?

Reading is fundamental.

OK, I see that. Reading is fundamental. So it is also not unusual that 20 wins does not get into the tourney. Now you can nitpick that also. Every year there are good teams with 20 plus that do not make it--uhh..usually.

[Hards Alumni]

OK, I see that. Reading is fundamental. So it is also not unusual that 20 wins does not get into the tourney. Now you can nitpick that also. Every year there are good teams with 20 plus that do not make it--uhh..usually.

You've stopped making sense altogether.

Second time in a row I agree with WW. You followed it up by saying we will need 12. The context it is in makes it sound like you think 20 would get us in usually (as in this is a normal year).

I don't know what to tell you.  Twelve wins will be the minimum.  At 11 wins, we won't even be considered. Eleven won't be enough.  We won't be considered if we have 11 conference wins.  More than twelve conference wins would be ideal.  If we don't get to 20 wins overall, we won't be considered.

USUALLY 20 WINS IN A SEASON BY A TEAM IN A MAJOR CONFERENCE WILL GET YOU IN THE TOURNEY.  Clear enough?

[bilsu]

Old Big East 20 wins would most likely get a team in the tournament. I think the New Big East is 21 or 22 wins.

[Windyplayer]

We need a winnable home game against a solid opponent. So far, the only game close to that criteria was OSU and that game was not really winnable.

Sucks that the two home games in the first 6 conference games are against crap and the four on the road would be winnable games against solid opponents. This team just needs to get a little momentum going and this early conference schedule doesn't really give us that opportunity. On the flip side, if they can steal a couple on the road, it would give us all the momentum we need and then some.

[martyconlonontherun]

You've stopped making sense altogether.

I don't know what to tell you.  Twelve wins will be the minimum.  At 11 wins, we won't even be considered. Eleven won't be enough.  We won't be considered if we have 11 conference wins.  More than twelve conference wins would be ideal.  If we don't get to 20 wins overall, we won't be considered.

USUALLY 20 WINS IN A SEASON BY A TEAM IN A MAJOR CONFERENCE WILL GET YOU IN THE TOURNEY.  Clear enough?

Easy does it, big guy. I never said you were wrong. I'm just saying the way you typed it could be misinterpreted, which is on me and WW. No need to jump down people's throat and insult them, though.

[Hards Alumni]

Easy does it, big guy. I never said you were wrong. I'm just saying the way you typed it could be misinterpreted, which is on me and WW. No need to jump down people's throat and insult them, though.

Willie misinterprets everything.  So I was just trying to be crystal clear for him.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think all 6 of those games are winnable. I'm gonna be optimistic and call 5-1. Buzz always saves his best basketball for conference play

[MUfan12]

I think all 6 of those games are winnable. I'm gonna be optimistic and call 5-1. Buzz always saves his best basketball for conference play

Wish I shared your optimism. They'll win the two home games. They haven't shown enough toughness for me to think they'll be able to finish a game on the road.

[Marquette84]

USUALLY 20 WINS IN A SEASON BY A TEAM IN A MAJOR CONFERENCE WILL GET YOU IN THE TOURNEY.  Clear enough?

Last year 7 teams from the top 6 major conferences won 20 games or more (actually 6 of them won 21 games) and still didn't make the tournament: Iowa, ASU, Virginia, Maryland, Alabama, Kentucky & Tennessee.  

With 20 or fewer wins, only Villanova, Minnesota, California, and Oklahoma made the tournament.

The "magic number" for a major conference doesn't appear to be 20--it appears to stand at 22 wins.