Gotta Win BE Tourney

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If this team goes .500 in conference, obviously we have problems.  I tend to think it will be something between 11-7 and 14-4.  This team is pretty good, just hasn't executed in close games on the road yet. They will continue to develop and be dancing come March, but a good portion of their margin for error has now evaporated.

[brewcity77]

Still waiting...

I agree with Glockner on twitter.

"1-5. Not good."

No, you're not. You said one. I gave you one. You agree with Glockner, who also said one.

I'm not saying I'm happy with one. I'm not saying it's ideal. I'm saying you asked for one, we have one, so there's really nothing more to discuss regarding that point. You can say one isn't good enough, one won't get us into the Dance, or we need 14+ Big East wins to get in as an at-large, but you can't say we don't have one. We do. Not that complicated.

[MarquetteDano]

Losing this one was big.  However, this does not mean we have to win the BE tourney to get in.  If we don't win the BE Tourney the following must occur:

• Go at least 13-5 in conference
• Get at least one big road win (e.g. Villanova, G'Town, Creighton, Xavier)
• No bad losses at home (e.g. Seton Hall, DePaul, Samford)
• Make a good showing in the BE Tourney.  One and out with even above may not be good enough

Let's assume 2-1 in the BET and 13-5 in conference.  That would be 23-11.  Given above, that is definitely good enough to get an at-large bid.

Anything less than this and we could be in trouble.

[MU82]

Losing this one was big.  However, this does not mean we have to win the BE tourney to get in.  If we don't win the BE Tourney the following must occur:

• Go at least 13-5 in conference
• Get at least one big road win (e.g. Villanova, G'Town, Creighton, Xavier)
• No bad losses at home (e.g. Seton Hall, DePaul, Samford)
• Make a good showing in the BE Tourney.  One and out with even above may not be good enough

Let's assume 2-1 in the BET and 13-5 in conference.  That would be 23-11.  Given above, that is definitely good enough to get an at-large bid.

Anything less than this and we could be in trouble.

This. Necessary win total might be +/-1, but this analysis makes sense.

[Dish]

No, you're not. You said one. I gave you one. You agree with Glockner, who also said one.

I'm not saying I'm happy with one. I'm not saying it's ideal. I'm saying you asked for one, we have one, so there's really nothing more to discuss regarding that point. You can say one isn't good enough, one won't get us into the Dance, or we need 14+ Big East wins to get in as an at-large, but you can't say we don't have one. We do. Not that complicated.

Agree to disagree.

[brewcity77]

Agree to disagree.

I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.

[The Equalizer]

I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.

I think there's a difference between the absolute definitions as compared to the qualtative discussions the committee will have at the end of the year.

By the strictest definitions of "good win", George Washington is in the top 100. 

But I don't think anyone considers GW at a level where a win over them gives you the same creditiblity as a win over #38 Memphis or #40 New Mexico, even though mathematcially Memphis, GW and New Mexico are very similar.

[Dish]

I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.

GW is 68 in Ken Pom. That screams quality win, you are right, my bad.

[madtownwarrior]

Yeah, I am sure that lone GW win will undoubtedly impress the selection committee.  Maybe they will like that Southern win too. 

l

GW is top-50 RPI. Your wait is over.

[brewcity77]

Yeah, I am sure that lone GW win will undoubtedly impress the selection committee.  Maybe they will like that Southern win too. 

That's not the point. The point is he said one quality win. Generally, top-50 RPI is considered a quality win. I said myself that I'm not happy with it, but that doesn't change that it's on our resume.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

Where is MU getting enough quality wins from in conference? If this was the old Big East, ok. This Big East? No way.

What are you talking about? 7 of the 10 Big East teams are in the Top 60 in KenPom.

Villanova (4)
Creighton (18)
Georgetown (32)
Marquette (41)
Xavier (47)
Butler (54)
St. John's (55)

Marquette will play the other 6 of those teams at least twice. So right there, that's 12 opportunities for a quality win.

[Dish]

What are you talking about? 7 of the 10 Big East teams are in the Top 60 in KenPom.

Villanova (4)
Creighton (18)
Georgetown (32)
Marquette (41)
Xavier (47)
Butler (54)
St. John's (55)

Marquette will play the other 6 of those teams at least twice. So right there, that's 12 opportunities for a quality win.

And MU is going 12-0, right? XU, BU, Johnnie's...meh.