Stats Update

[Henry Sugar]

Stats by the half for last night. Boring



Chart of the Day - Juan's season trend for this year vs last year



Bonus Chart #1 - Jamil comparison for this year vs last year



Bonus Chart #2 - Per Game comparison of Dawson and Derrick. If you're keeping track, Derrick has six net-positive games and five net-negative games. Dawson has zero net-positive games, eight net-negative games and three DNP-CD.

[Jay Bee]

Juan & MBDeonte both with steal rates around 5.5%...

I think Jae was over 4% as a Sr,... 5+ is niiice. Probably will fall to the low to mid 4's for Jusn by season's end, but quite impressive

[jesmu84]

But if Dawson was getting 30 min/game, he'd be big east first team...

[Dawson Rental]

But if Dawson was getting 30 min/game, he'd be big east first team...

I guess that he'll have to settle for Big East sixth man of the year.

[frozena pizza]

I guess that he'll have to settle for Big East sixth man of the year.

So disrespectful to Davante.

[bilsu]

Maybe stats are boring, but I do not see how first half possessions can be right. MU 36 possessions and Ball St 37 does not seem possible. We won the tip and Gardner had the ball at the end for a last minute attempt, which to me means MU had to have one more possession than Ball St. Am I not understanding something?

[NersEllenson]

But if Dawson was getting 30 min/game, he'd be big east first team...

Nobody said he'd be first team big east or even close - one thing I can assure you is that Derrick Wilson won't sniff All Big East honors.  The guy is 3 years into the program, so I sure as hell would hope he'd outperform a guy 4 months in.  That said, Derrick's Net Negative games sure do stretch far to the negative, and looking at them, don't bode well for the better competition we'll face soon - thankfully it won't be the former rugged Big East with Cuse, Lville, and UCONN - who's guards would eat Derrick alive...or Dawson for that matter.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Nobody said he'd be first team big east or even close - one thing I can assure you is that Derrick Wilson won't sniff All Big East honors.  The guy is 3 years into the program, so I sure as hell would hope he'd outperform a guy 4 months in.  That said, Derrick's Net Negative games sure do stretch far to the negative, and looking at them, don't bode well for the better competition we'll face soon - thankfully it won't be the former rugged Big East with Cuse, Lville, and UCONN - who's guards would eat Derrick alive...or Dawson for that matter.

It's been explained to you that Derrick's net negatives are a reflection of usage,and that if the numbers were normalized for usage Dawson's numbers would be by far the worst on the team. But carry on anyway.

[NersEllenson]

It's been explained to you that Derrick's net negatives are a reflection of usage,and that if the numbers were normalized for usage Dawson's numbers would be by far the worst on the team. But carry on anyway.

Thanks Tony.  From your playing days, did you not play better the more minutes you got, as compared to getting a 2 minute stint here and there?  Dawson's showed a great deal of unselfishness in his play, hasn't forced his shot at all, but instead created some great looks for teammates.  But, carry on anyway.

[keefe]

Ners

What happened to your old tag line? It was so much better.

[jesmu84]

Thanks Tony.  From your playing days, did you not play better the more minutes you got, as compared to getting a 2 minute stint here and there?  Dawson's showed a great deal of unselfishness in his play, hasn't forced his shot at all, but instead created some great looks for teammates.  But, carry on anyway.

Interesting. You've implied this point as a negative for derrick

[Jay Bee]

Maybe stats are boring, but I do not see how first half possessions can be right. MU 36 possessions and Ball St 37 does not seem possible. We won the tip and Gardner had the ball at the end for a last minute attempt, which to me means MU had to have one more possession than Ball St. Am I not understanding something?

Yes - you are not understanding that possessions are an estimate. Indeed, one can know actual possessions, but rarely are they used.

[g0lden3agle]

Yes - you are not understanding that possessions are an estimate. Indeed, one can know actual possessions, but rarely are they used.

Not totally sure why this mathematical "possession" number is used. We depend on the stat book to keep track of every other stat used (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. etc.), why can't we just get a "possession" tally for every time a team gains possession of the ball? 

[Jay Bee]

Not totally sure why this mathematical "possession" number is used. We depend on the stat book to keep track of every other stat used (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. etc.), why can't we just get a "possession" tally for every time a team gains possession of the ball? 

We could - and if it was widely done then it would be used.

However, the estimates work well over the course of a season (and game to game)... you won't be materially off unless there are hundreds of FT's in a game (OK, maybe that's possible now!)... not to mention the masses don't care much about how many possessions were in a game.. it's important for those who don't stop at "uhh, this guy averages 14.2 points a game so he's a better scorer than the guy on another team who gets only 12.7" type of analysis.

[esotericmindguy]

Can't Juan play the 2? He's plenty athletic enough and his length would bother a lot of other guards. Buzz could then start Deonte at the 3 and still bring Devante, Mayo, JJJ and Thomas off the bench. I'm hoping this is what happens when conference play begins. It's the best lineup and still offers balance with the second team.

[GGGG]

Can't Juan play the 2? He's plenty athletic enough and his length would bother a lot of other guards. Buzz could then start Deonte at the 3 and still bring Devante, Mayo, JJJ and Thomas off the bench. I'm hoping this is what happens when conference play begins. It's the best lineup and still offers balance with the second team.

It's not going to happen.  There really is nothing wrong with the rotation now.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Thanks Tony.  From your playing days, did you not play better the more minutes you got, as compared to getting a 2 minute stint here and there?  Dawson's showed a great deal of unselfishness in his play, hasn't forced his shot at all, but instead created some great looks for teammates.  But, carry on anyway.

It had nothing to do with Dawson's "unselfishness" on a single play...it was your slam on Derrick's negative games.  The fact is Dawson has thus far acculumated far more negatives per minute than Derrick, which is to be expected, since he is a frosh.  But no silly things like facts are going to change your narrative.

[NersEllenson]

It had nothing to do with Dawson's "unselfishness" on a single play...it was your slam on Derrick's negative games.  The fact is Dawson has thus far acculumated far more negatives per minute than Derrick, which is to be expected, since he is a frosh.  But no silly things like facts are going to change your narrative.

I'm still waiting for you to answer the question - did you not play better in your playing days the more run you got?  How productive were you in 2 minute stints.  It's hard to accomplish much of anything when you typically are getting 2-3 minute stints in a game. So, Dawson gets very short stints of minutes, doesn't force things (such as trying to score a whole lot), other than creating a few good looks for teammates - and by the statistical analysis - it comes out net negative if "normalized."

I'd say also the sample size on Dawson isn't relevant whereas on Derrick - the sample size is quite relevant - he's generally been pretty bad, especially against good teams.

[GGGG]

I'm still waiting for you to answer the question - did you not play better in your playing days the more run you got?  How productive were you in 2 minute stints.  It's hard to accomplish much of anything when you typically are getting 2-3 minute stints in a game. So, Dawson gets very short stints of minutes, doesn't force things (such as trying to score a whole lot), other than creating a few good looks for teammates - and by the statistical analysis - it comes out net negative if "normalized."

I'd say also the sample size on Dawson isn't relevant whereas on Derrick - the sample size is quite relevant - he's generally been pretty bad, especially against good teams.

Yes if we only played our bad players more, they would be better than the good players. 

But in many ways that really isn't the point.  Buzz has seen Dawson get plenty of "run" in practice.  He knows full well what their relative strengths and weaknesses are, and has likely communicated those repeatedly with each player.

Ners, when you reach this point in the conversation, you might just want to admit that you were wrong.  Perhaps Dawson will one day be better than Derrick is now.  But he's not.  Buzz doesn't even run him as back up a good portion of the time.

[NersEllenson]

Interesting. You've implied this point as a negative for derrick

The part you don't seem to grasp is Derrick rarely CREATES great looks for teammates.  Watch the games closely.  Anybody can end up with 4 assists a game playing 32+ minutes per game, simply through the nature of Buzz's ball swing offense.

Count how many assists of Derrick's come from him being a catalyst - driving the lane, forcing help, dumping off for easy lay ins by our bigs/wings.  Or, how often is he driving and collapsing the defense and kicking out to open 3 point shooters?  

I'm not trying to hate on the kid, simply calling it like it is with regard to his playmaking ability.  He simply isn't a playmaker.  He's a good, solid, game manager back up type of point guard - but apparently Dawson isn't ready yet to get ahead of him in the rotation...I just happen to think Dawson would pay bigger dividends come March, if had been getting 20 minutes per game in this early/cupcake part of the schedule...

[GGGG]

So through ten games this year...

Marquette is scoring at about the same rate as it did through ten games last year.
Marquette is shooting at about the same pace as it did last year.
Derrick is getting more assists per minute than Junior did last year, AND turning the ball over less.
Derrick has a higher OR than Junior

And somehow Derrick Wilson is a problem??  Because he's not a "playmaker?"  His assists are the wrong kind of assists?  (Which may or may not be the case since no one has proven how his assists are really any different than Junior's were.)

The mind-boggles...

[NersEllenson]

So through ten games this year...

Marquette is scoring at about the same rate as it did through ten games last year.
Marquette is shooting at about the same pace as it did last year.
Derrick is getting more assists per minute than Junior did last year, AND turning the ball over less.
Derrick has a higher OR than Junior

And somehow Derrick Wilson is a problem??  Because he's not a "playmaker?"  His assists are the wrong kind of assists?  (Which may or may not be the case since no one has proven how his assists are really any different than Junior's were.)

The mind-boggles...

How has Derrick played against UW and OSU?  SDSU?  You can look at Junior's numbers for a whole season, playing in the former rugged Big East - and compare to Derrick's through 10 games, so far having played against 4 quality teams, and 6 cupcakes.  We'll see how it shakes out in the end.  Would be great to be wrong.  If Derrick can average in conference play, 8-10ppg, 5 assists, and limit TO's to 2 per game - I'd be very happy..and would get off his case.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

If Derrick can average in conference play, 8-10ppg, 5 assists, and limit TO's to 2 per game - I'd be very happy..and would get off his case.

I'd like to make a wager with you:

There will be 3 players (or less) in the conference that meet your criteria.

If 4 or more guys average 8+pts, 5+assists and 2 or less TO's per game in conference, I'll take a vacation from MUSCOOP for a year.

If 3 or less players do it, you take a vacation for a year.

[GGGG]

How has Derrick played against UW and OSU?  SDSU? 

Not terribly different from Junior's games v. Florida and UWGB from last year.  He was phenominal against UW.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yes if we only played our bad players more, they would be better than the good players. 

^^This.  Yup, that's his argument, and no amount of facts are going to sway him.