ESPN article on MU-UW game

[Windyplayer]

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/90796/marquette-desperate-for-nonconference-win

Overstatement of the century:
"Saturday's game might not be a must-win for Marquette. But it's close." Um, no, not even close to a must win for tournament purposes. It would be a massive win, but an acceptable loss.

[GGGG]

Not exactly sure how a road game against a top 10 team is a "must win."

[mu03eng]

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/90796/marquette-desperate-for-nonconference-win

Overstatement of the century:
"Saturday's game might not be a must-win for Marquette. But it's close." Um, no, not even close to a must win for tournament purposes. It would be a massive win, but an acceptable loss.

Talked about this on the Scrambled Eggs podcast, this is as close to a must win in December as you get.  If we lose this, the New Mexico is absolutely have to win.  We can't go into conference season, not knowing the true quality of the conference yet, without a single RPI top 100 win.

[Dawson Rental]

Talked about this on the Scrambled Eggs podcast, this is as close to a must win in December as you get.  If we lose this, the New Mexico is absolutely have to win.  We can't go into conference season, not knowing the true quality of the conference yet, without a single RPI top 100 win.

Define must win.  Must win to make the NCAA?  The Big East Conference Tournament winner gets an automatic invite to the NCAA.  The Wisconsin game has nothing to do with the Big East regular season champion.  What is the likelihood that the Big East regular season champ doesn't make the NCAA?

Must win to get a decent seed?  Now that's something different, so you can see it's important to define "must win".

[ChicosBailBonds]

You need a scalp or two on the resume. 

[Windyplayer]

Define must win.  Must win to make the NCAA?  The Big East Conference Tournament winner gets an automatic invite to the NCAA.  The Wisconsin game has nothing to do with the Big East regular season champion.  What is the likelihood that the Big East regular season champ doesn't make the NCAA?

Must win to get a decent seed?  Now that's something different, so you can see it's important to define "must win".

Must-win can only be interpreted in one way and that is to get into the tournament. The win will not help us win the BEast regular season championship or the conference tournament.

[Litehouse]

I always consider this game a "must win", because a win over UW makes Christmas at the in-laws much more tolerable.

[NavinRJohnson]

 If we lose this, the New Mexico is absolutely have to win.  We can't go into conference season, not knowing the true quality of the conference yet, without a single RPI top 100 win.

Ok then, lets assume they do. If what you say is true, then the conference season is meaningless? We're hoping for an NIT bid? What?

'Must win' may be the most absurd and overused term in all of sports.

[MU82]

I always consider this game a "must win", because a win over UW makes Christmas at the in-laws much more tolerable.

This. And my in-laws aren't even Bucky fans.

More seriously, it definitely would be significant if we can take an unbeaten, top-10 team in their building. A loss, particularly an ugly one, would hurt the perception of the team even if it didn't kill our RPI. Those on the NCAA selection committee are subjective humans.

Technically, it isn't a must-win. Even if we also lose to New Mexico (meaning we'll have zero meaningful non-con wins) and even if we don't come close to winning the regular-season Big East title, the only true "must-win" games will be the elimination games in the BET. But do we really want to have to rely on winning the BET to get into the NCAAs?

Yes, it is overstating it to call it a must-win. But it's a big game beyond the emotional aspect of beating Wisconsin. Anybody who says otherwise is just trying to cushion the blow in advance.

Oh, and I'd sure like to be able to trash-talk all my Bucky-loving friends.

[Windyplayer]

Quite simply, a must-win game should be defined as a game that should the team/player not win the game, then they are mathematically elimiated from advancing toward the desired end.

[willie warrior]

You need a scalp or two on the resume. 

Exactly! And this would be a huge scalp/pelt. (Can't use scalp-not PC for a warrior)  The season is still early but this is a game we desperately need. The way we are playing now, .500 in conference is possible. And .500 in conference gives us about 12 plus losses for the year. 12 losses is likely not dancing material, so we need this game.

[Dawson Rental]

Ok then, lets assume they do. If what you say is true, then the conference season is meaningless? We're hoping for an NIT bid? What?

'Must win' may be the most absurd and overused term in all of sports.

This,

Quite simply, a must-win game should be defined as a game that should the team/player not win the game, then they are mathematically elimiated from advancing toward the desired end.

and this.

If the NCAA tournament is the goal, and MU is on the bubble or out at the start of the Big East Tournament, then the must win games begin.

The Wisconsin game would be a very useful scalp to have on the resume when the NCAA committee determines tournament seeding.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Quite simply, a must-win game should be defined as a game that should the team/player not win the game, then they are mathematically elimiated from advancing toward the desired end.

That's traditionally not the case.  If you are in a 7 game series and lose the first two games, game three is a must win typically despite not being an elimination game.

Is Sat a must win?  No.  If we don't win it does it put more pressure to win against UNM and to have a killer record in the Big East?  Yes

[Windyplayer]

typically

Therein lies the problem of calling a game a must-win.

Are there going to be situations where it will be a hell of a lot more difficult to achieve your desired end if you don't win a particular game? Of course. But that doesn't make that game a must-win.

[mu03eng]

Ok then, lets assume they do. If what you say is true, then the conference season is meaningless? We're hoping for an NIT bid? What?

'Must win' may be the most absurd and overused term in all of sports.

I didn't say must win, I said it was very close to must win.  If we have no non-conference wins and have to rely on our conference resume to get us into the dance and/or the automatic bid, that is dangerous.  Especially going the conference route because what if some of the conference foes we would rely on for a quality win suddenly have injuries or fall apart and they aren't quality wins any more.  We have to have quality wins in the non-con or it really hurts the overall resume

[ChicosBailBonds]

Therein lies the problem of calling a game a must-win.

Are there going to be situations where it will be a hell of a lot more difficult to achieve your desired end if you don't win a particular game? Of course. But that doesn't make that game a must-win.

You could take that to the extreme and say non of the games are must win until the conference tournament.  All depends what level you want to take it.  I agree with you that this game is not a must win, but opportunities are dwindling and I just don't see us finishing 15-3 or 14-4 like some people do in conference, at least not with the current product.  Many have pointed out we will get better...we should and will need to accomplish that type of conference record.

[hoyasincebirth]

Marquette must win either @ Wisconsin or vs. New Mexico in order to get an at large birth at this point. I think that's what they mean.

This is because there will not be many scalps (defined as top 50 and top 25 RPI wins) to be gained in BE play. The conference has underachieved to date and currently our only top 50 team is Villanova. OOC wins are more important than ever.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Marquette must win either @ Wisconsin or vs. New Mexico in order to get an at large birth at this point. I think that's what they mean.

This is because there will not be many scalps (defined as top 50 and top 25 RPI wins) to be gained in BE play. The conference has underachieved to date and currently our only top 50 team is Villanova. OOC wins are more important than ever.

Yes, I agree this is what they mean.  The RPI predictor (with very limited data right now), does expect three teams to finish in the top 50

Nova
GTown
Creighton

Again, very limited data and it will change.  Probably not even worth posting, but what the hell. 

[MUSF]

You could take that to the extreme and say non of the games are must win until the conference tournament.

Factually, those games are the only true "must wins", and even then, the term is only accurate for teams without a strong enough tourney resume.

That is why "must win game" is one of the most over-used, eye roll inducing sports clichés. There is no such thing as a must win college bball game in December.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Factually, those games are the only true "must wins", and even then, the term is only accurate for teams without a strong enough tourney resume.

That is why "must win game" is one of the most over-used, eye roll inducing sports clichés. There is no such thing as a must win college bball game in December.

I think the writer said close to it, but not a must win. 

[79Warrior]

Not exactly sure how a road game against a top 10 team is a "must win."

"Saturday's game might not be a must-win for Marquette. But it's close." That was the quote. It helps to put the comment in context.

I think the writer is correct. MU faces the reasonable probability of have Zero quality non-conference wins in we lose Saturday. That leaves one more opportunity, New Mexico. I get where the writer is going. We will have to be outstanding in conferenceplay  because our non conference play could potentially hurt us.

[MUSF]

"Saturday's game might is not a must-win for Marquette. But it's close." That was the quote. It helps to put the coment in context.

I think the writer is correct.

Fixed it. Now the writer is correct.

[The Lens]

Yes, I agree this is what they mean.  The RPI predictor (with very limited data right now), does expect three teams to finish in the top 50

Nova
GTown
Creighton

Again, very limited data and it will change.  Probably not even worth posting, but what the hell. 

And we'll play each of them twice.

[Windyplayer]

Marquette must win either @ Wisconsin or vs. New Mexico in order to get an at large birth at this point.

Totally false. We're projected to win the Big East. Are you saying if we do that and lose against UW and UNM that we will not get an at-large birth.

If we lose these next two major non-conference games, then we can kiss good-bye seeds 1-6 or 7, but to say that we need them for an at-large bid is ludicrous. Unless, of course, there's sound analysis to go with your assertion.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Totally false. We're projected to win the Big East. Are you saying if we do that and lose against UW and UNM that we will not get an at-large birth.

If we lose these next two major non-conference games, then we can kiss good-bye seeds 1-6 or 7, but to say that we need them for an at-large bid is ludicrous. Unless, of course, there's sound analysis to go with your assertion.

We were picked in the preseason to win the Big East. Preseason rankings mean nothing.