#24 in Pomeroy's preseason rankings

[Skatastrophy]

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

Has us going 19-10, 11-7 in conference.

[Skatastrophy]

His blog explains his methodology

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/pre_season_ratings_2014

[Ellenson Guerrero]

I'll be pretty disappointed if we are 11-7 in conference.

[Skatastrophy]

I'll be pretty disappointed if we are 11-7 in conference.

At this point both Georgetown and Creighton are ranked ahead of us (at 14 and 13, respectively), and Nova right behind us at 26. If that's all correct, we could have a tougher go with our conference schedule than we initially thought.

[tower912]

Having an inexperienced backcourt makes predictions difficult.   IMO, this team could be anywhere from Pomeroy's prediction to a Final Four team.   

[brewcity77]

His system also doesn't favor freshmen, and the more we progress the more it seems 1-2 could be playing significant roles on this team.

[bobnoxious]

He does have us going undefeated at home

[avid1010]

He does have us going undefeated at home

that's 16 games...so only 3 road/neutral site wins all year???

i'd bet on buzz getting 22+ wins again.

[willie warrior]

Hmmm... Can only say Pomeroy does not know basketball. Look at the season predictions by our fans in the other thread.

[madtownwarrior]

Something must be really wrong with Pomeroy - he does not have Wisconsin in his usual top 5 spot. 

[hoyasincebirth]

You have to remember that the projected record will not include the 2 games in the preseason tournament that have not been "scheduled" yet.

[4everwarriors]

How 'bout the closed door preseason scrimmages?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Hmmm... Can only say Pomeroy does not know basketball. Look at the season predictions by our fans in the other thread.

I'd say it's in between the Pomeroy predictions and the overly optimistic stuff in the other thread. 

[Coleman]

I'd say it's in between the Pomeroy predictions and the overly optimistic stuff in the other thread.  

I tend to agree. I don't think this is a 4 loss team. But I also don't think this is a 10 loss team. I'm inclined to split the difference and say we end up with 7 losses (before the Big East tournament begins).

I don't understand Pomeroy's methodology if he has us going 19-10 yet defeating Ohio State. Does he value the home court advantage that much?

[brewcity77]

I tend to agree. I don't think this is a 4 loss team. But I also don't think this is a 10 loss team. I'm inclined to split the difference and say we end up with 7 losses (before the Big East tournament begins).

I don't understand Pomeroy's methodology if he has us going 19-10 yet defeating Ohio State. Does he value the home court advantage that much?

If you really want to throw yourself for a loop, count how many games he actually picks us to win and lose. Game-by-game, he has us 20-10 (12-6). The disparity is because his game-by-game totals are based on single-game percentages. Homecourt is a significant advantage. But season totals are based on the total percentages added up. If you add all the percentages, it totals 1916.8, which equates to the 19-10 record (which, as hoyasincebirth mentioned, fails to include the 2nd and 3rd game of the Anaheim Classic).

So Ohio State and Xavier, with a combined percentage of 102%, is worth just more than 1 win. Or the three game stretch of Creighton, @ DePaul, and Georgetown, a combined win percentage of 183%. Despite us being picked to win all three, that's worth less than 2 wins in the formula. Meanwhile, the games against New Hampshire, @ Arizona State, and @ CS-Fullerton are totaled at 235, which is more than 2 wins despite us being picked to lose one of those three games.

[raul]

I wonder what  pomroys prediction was of MU last year? Probably about the same if not worse than this years 19-10.

[Brewtown Andy]

Something must be really wrong with Pomeroy - he does not have Wisconsin in his usual top 5 spot. 

There was an offseason adjustment to the algorithm.

[Brewtown Andy]

Big East is ranked #2 as a conference behind the Big Ten and ahead of the ACC.

Just sayin'.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Big East is ranked #2 as a conference behind the Big Ten and ahead of the ACC.

Just sayin'.

Top to bottom, we are the best conference. Butler, Seton Hall, and Depaul all have potential to be top 100 teams this year. No other conference can claim that.

However, other conferences are larger and more top heavy. We will have a lot of 3-11 seeds but probably no 1 or 2 seeds

[Skatastrophy]

Top to bottom, we are the best conference. Butler, Seton Hall, and Butler all have potential to be top 100 teams this year. No other conference can claim that.

However, other conferences are larger and more top heavy. We will have a lot of 3-11 seeds but probably no 1 or 2 seeds

You listed Butler twice

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You listed Butler twice

Whoops, fixed it

[brewcity77]

Top to bottom, we are the best conference. Butler, Seton Hall, and Depaul all have potential to be top 100 teams this year. No other conference can claim that.

However, other conferences are larger and more top heavy. We will have a lot of 3-11 seeds but probably no 1 or 2 seeds

I think a double-champion would have a good chance to get a 2-seed. Creighton and Marquette are probably the best chance we have to be on the top two seed lines. And who knows what happens in season? Right now, I'd say Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, Michigan State, and Kansas look locked into the top line (with someone obviously getting left out) but things always change. Who expected last year's Kentucky to miss the field completely?

[The Equalizer]

I think a double-champion would have a good chance to get a 2-seed. Creighton and Marquette are probably the best chance we have to be on the top two seed lines. And who knows what happens in season? Right now, I'd say Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, Michigan State, and Kansas look locked into the top line (with someone obviously getting left out) but things always change. Who expected last year's Kentucky to miss the field completely?

Creighton plays too many 300+ non-conference teams to get a 2 seed.

[Windyplayer]

Top to bottom, we are the best the most balanced conference.