HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll About Concussions In Football

[Pakuni]

Pakuni

Here is the lawsuit filed in Federal court.

http://www.anapolschwartz.com/pdfs/nfl-complaint.pdf


It's a fun read and I think you will find your answers throughout.  It's amazing to me the extent Travellers, the players, etc go out of their way to highlight the various violence, marketing of violence, etc, going back to even the 1930's....amazing that the NFL knew it was a violent game and the players didn't.  Odd.  Strange.  Or that equipment was mandated throughout the development of football because of injuries and the attempt to reduce them.  

No one is suggesting CTE isn't real or isn't something important to be dealt with.  Of course it is.  My problem with all of this is that someone these players didn't know the risks everytime they went on the football field.  Ridiculous, but that is what their lawsuit states.  It is preposterous. 

When do baseball pitchers start suing because their after 15 years and thousands of pitches thrown their arm doesn't work like it used to?

Chico's ... one again, you're badly mischaracterizing the nature of the lawsuit and the players' claims. It's difficult - no, impossible - to have a serious discussion about the validity of the allegations with someone who refuses address the actual allegations, and instead makes up what he wants them to be so he can more easily refute them.

The irony here is, had you actually taken the time to read the lawsuit you linked, you would understand what the claims are.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Keefe/CBB

I agree with you about football and concussions.  But it does not matter.

The long-knives are out for Football and they will not stop until they turn it into boxing (a sport that used to be far and away the most popular in the country and is not a minor sport because of its brutality.).  I've argued that in 10 to 15 years football will be as popular as the MLB while on its way to boxing.  I see no reason to change that view.

Think taobacco lawsuits.  Those took decades and they were relentless until they hallowed out that industry.  Same thing is happening with football.  When they are done with the NFL, the lawsuits will turn to the NCAA and high school until they are gutted.

Years from now we'll look at the TV contract CBB noted above as the high water mark of Football's popularity.

I think you truly have no idea why boxing became what it became with your comments.  No idea.

Pay Per View.  Period. Throw in a hefty dose of corruption, lack of solid fighters in certain divisions (heavy weights mostly), etc.  That will not happen with football.

Happy to take bets on this.  You clearly do not understand the money involved in this.  Just wait for a few announcements in the coming  months and the length of the deals and the dollars involved and tell me again how football will be the same as boxing.

You are just wrong, there is no other way I can put it for you.  Follow the money and it is ENORMOUS.

[brandx]

Happy to take bets on this.  You clearly do not understand the money involved in this.  Just wait for a few announcements in the coming  months and the length of the deals and the dollars involved and tell me again how football will be the same as boxing.

You are just wrong, there is no other way I can put it for you.  Follow the money and it is ENORMOUS.

While one of my rules is to always "follow the money", I think this may be the one exception to the rule. I think this is going to be a "public perception" issue first and foremost. Once enough of the public turns, no amount of money will matter.

Marc Trestman said the biggest difference he saw in the NFL after returning from Canada was the bulk of the current players. He saw a noticeable difference in size, speed, and strength over just the few years he was gone. I don't think the injury problem - mainly head injuries - is going to improve and THAT is the big issue.

We can look the other way for broken bones and torn ligaments, but when serious head injuries are involved, it will make a difference. It may play out over 10 -15 years, but it will happen.

[Pakuni]

I don't think the injury problem - mainly head injuries - is going to improve and THAT is the big issue.

We can look the other way for broken bones and torn ligaments, but when serious head injuries are involved, it will make a difference. It may play out over 10 -15 years, but it will happen.

Actually, I disagree. I think the head injury issue is going to improve in the years ahead, not get worse.
Steps being taken today - concussion protocols, baseline testing, serious penalties for blows to the head, reduction in the amount of contact allowed during practices - all are likely to reduce the amount of serious, and more importantly, repetitive/cumulative head injuries. A few decades ago, a guy who suffered a concussion was told "ya got yer bell rung, now get back out there," which, of course, led to more serious brain trauma. Now that same player is put on the shelf immediately and held out until post-concussion symptoms are gone.
Also, helmet technology will improve. Because it has to. As we all know, companies (i.e. the NFL and helmet makers like Ridell) only make safety improvements to their products when there is a financial incentive to do so. Well, now that incentive exists in the form of product liability.

[brandx]

Actually, I disagree. I think the head injury issue is going to improve in the years ahead, not get worse.
Steps being taken today - concussion protocols, baseline testing, serious penalties for blows to the head, reduction in the amount of contact allowed during practices - all are likely to reduce the amount of serious, and more importantly, repetitive/cumulative head injuries. A few decades ago, a guy who suffered a concussion was told "ya got yer bell rung, now get back out there," which, of course, led to more serious brain trauma. Now that same player is put on the shelf immediately and held out until post-concussion symptoms are gone.
Also, helmet technology will improve. Because it has to. As we all know, companies (i.e. the NFL and helmet makers like Ridell) only make safety improvements to their products when there is a financial incentive to do so. Well, now that incentive exists in the form of product liability.

The NFL is taking positive steps, but we aren't seeing the same thing in high school and college. They still want to hit every day.

It is not just the "big" hits that are the problem as much as the constant lesser blows to the head. I don't have numbers to back it up, but it seems as though there have been fewer long term head injuries to QBs and WRs - maybe because the QB is usually off limits in practice and WRs are also not involved in hard hitting nearly as often.

[brandx]

I'm not inferring that football will become like boxing. I think baseball would be a more apt comparison.

Still popular - but no longer the national pastime.

[ChicosBailBonds]

While one of my rules is to always "follow the money", I think this may be the one exception to the rule. I think this is going to be a "public perception" issue first and foremost. Once enough of the public turns, no amount of money will matter.

Marc Trestman said the biggest difference he saw in the NFL after returning from Canada was the bulk of the current players. He saw a noticeable difference in size, speed, and strength over just the few years he was gone. I don't think the injury problem - mainly head injuries - is going to improve and THAT is the big issue.

We can look the other way for broken bones and torn ligaments, but when serious head injuries are involved, it will make a difference. It may play out over 10 -15 years, but it will happen.

So what's the bet?   You and Another....any other takers?   Let's name the stakes.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chico's ... one again, you're badly mischaracterizing the nature of the lawsuit and the players' claims. It's difficult - no, impossible - to have a serious discussion about the validity of the allegations with someone who refuses address the actual allegations, and instead makes up what he wants them to be so he can more easily refute them.

The irony here is, had you actually taken the time to read the lawsuit you linked, you would understand what the claims are.

I read it.  I'm well aware of the allegations.  I don't believe in them.  Just as I don't believe in smokers getting a red cent if they started smoking in the last 30 years.  Trust me, I get it just fine, I just find the allegations and arguments ridiculous. 

[Tugg Speedman]

The NFL is taking positive steps, but we aren't seeing the same thing in high school and college. They still want to hit every day.

It is not just the "big" hits that are the problem as much as the constant lesser blows to the head. I don't have numbers to back it up, but it seems as though there have been fewer long term head injuries to QBs and WRs - maybe because the QB is usually off limits in practice and WRs are also not involved in hard hitting nearly as often.

Bingo

This is why the NFL got off "easy" with $765 million.  It is the constant pounding that is more damaging than the big hits.  Nearly all NFL players had 8 years of banging heads (4 in HS, for in college) before they arrived.  The league was not arguing that head trauma does not exist.  They argued that most players are damaged goods when they arrive at their first NFL training camp.  This severely weakened the case against the NFL which is why the players settled.

The lawyers went after the NFL first because they have money.  When they are done with them, they are going after college and HS and will gut them before they are done.

The NFL will still exist but it will be like boxing, only performed by the poor and desperate for the enjoyment of the rich.

[Pakuni]

I read it.  I'm well aware of the allegations.  I don't believe in them.  Just as I don't believe in smokers getting a red cent if they started smoking in the last 30 years.  Trust me, I get it just fine, I just find the allegations and arguments ridiculous. 

If you're well aware of the allegations, why is your recitation of them here (i.e. "We players never knew football was dangerous") so out of line with reality?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm not inferring that football will become like boxing. I think baseball would be a more apt comparison.

Still popular - but no longer the national pastime.

And what becomes the national pastime in its place?  We subscribe to a number of data reports on popularity because we need to know where to invest.  Here is one of them.

Pro Football is currently listed by 34% of the public as their favorite sport....more than twice that of baseball which is at 16%. 

College football comes in at #3 at 11%, trailing only baseball and the NFL

When you combine college football and pro football, it is monstrous how big the lead is at 45% with the next closest at NBA and college hoops combined at 10%.  MONSTROUS superiority.  College hoops continues to decline in popularity.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris%20Poll%203%20-%20Favorite%20Sport_1.17.13.pdf

[brandx]

And what becomes the national pastime in its place?  We subscribe to a number of data reports on popularity because we need to know where to invest.  Here is one of them.

Pro Football is currently listed by 34% of the public as their favorite sport....more than twice that of baseball which is at 16%. 

College football comes in at #3 at 11%, trailing only baseball and the NFL

When you combine college football and pro football, it is monstrous how big the lead is at 45% with the next closest at NBA and college hoops combined at 10%.  MONSTROUS superiority.  College hoops continues to decline in popularity.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris%20Poll%203%20-%20Favorite%20Sport_1.17.13.pdf

Current numbers aren't necessarily an indicator of future numbers. I would guess that if you looked back to the '50s, baseball would have had the huge advantage with boxing possibly ranking second.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Current numbers aren't necessarily an indicator of future numbers. I would guess that if you looked back to the '50s, baseball would have had the huge advantage with boxing possibly ranking second.

Yes, but boxing went to a PPV model, and the NFL is not going to do that. 

Baseball is a boring game to many people, the NFL and college football are not.


Every model we have done, CBS, ESPN, NBC, etc....let's put it this way, we're not spending billions of dollars on a sport that isn't going to be king of the hill over the next 15 to 20 years.  Some of these contracts already go into the 2020's. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

If you're well aware of the allegations, why is your recitation of them here (i.e. "We players never knew football was dangerous") so out of line with reality?

Because some of their attorneys and their own comments are arguing just that.  Not all of them, but enough to make one's head spin.  

[Tugg Speedman]

Current numbers aren't necessarily an indicator of future numbers. I would guess that if you looked back to the '50s, baseball would have had the huge advantage with boxing possibly ranking second.

The most popular sports in the 1950s

Baseball
Boxing
Horse Racing
Track & Field
Football

[ChicosBailBonds]

Bingo

This is why the NFL got off "easy" with $765 million.  It is the constant pounding that is more damaging than the big hits.  Nearly all NFL players had 8 years of banging heads (4 in HS, for in college) before they arrived.  The league was not arguing that head trauma does not exist.  They argued that most players are damaged goods when they arrive at their first NFL training camp.  This severely weakened the case against the NFL which is why the players settled.

The lawyers went after the NFL first because they have money.  When they are done with them, they are going after college and HS and will gut them before they are done.

The NFL will still exist but it will be like boxing, only performed by the poor and desperate for the enjoyment of the rich.

Again, I find some of these statements to be based on myth and not reality.  I'm sure there are high schools that hit every day.  Where I played, one of the best programs in the state of California and nationally ranked in the top 20 in the last 15 years, we hit ONE day a week.  Many of our competitors did the same thing.  This was 25 years ago.  I don't think we were the exception. 

When you get down to Pop Warner, if you have ever seen a game, the hits are so mild that it is extremely rare when something bad happens.  Again, exceptions, of course, but they put the kids in weight divisions and it is often just a scrum of kids with no violent hits of any kind.  I would guess heading the ball in soccer in AYSO or club at the level does every bit the damage at that level.  Of course, today, the restrictions are even greater to point we are babying these kids to the nth degree.  I mentioned what happened to one of my son's friends at our local high school. It was preposterous the overanalysis they did for a kid that never had a concussion.

[Tugg Speedman]

Again, I find some of these statements to be based on myth and not reality.  I'm sure there are high schools that hit every day.  Where I played, one of the best programs in the state of California and nationally ranked in the top 20 in the last 15 years, we hit ONE day a week.  Many of our competitors did the same thing.  This was 25 years ago.  I don't think we were the exception.  

When you get down to Pop Warner, if you have ever seen a game, the hits are so mild that it is extremely rare when something bad happens.  Again, exceptions, of course, but they put the kids in weight divisions and it is often just a scrum of kids with no violent hits of any kind.  I would guess heading the ball in soccer in AYSO or club at the level does every bit the damage at that level.  Of course, today, the restrictions are even greater to point we are babying these kids to the nth degree.  I mentioned what happened to one of my son's friends at our local high school. It was preposterous the overanalysis they did for a kid that never had a concussion.

Watch this segment

http://www.hbo.com/real-sports-with-bryant-gumbel/episodes#/real-sports-with-bryant-gumbel/episodes/0/188-episode/video/188-concussions.html/eNrjcmbOYM5nLtQsy0xJzXfMS8ypLMlMds7PK0mtKFHPz0mBCQUkpqf6JeamcjIyskknlpbkF+QkVtqWFJWmsjGyMQIAWCcXOA==

It quotes high division 1 coaches (note the plural)  arguing why it is necessary to hit everyday ... in 2013!!!

[Tugg Speedman]

Yes, but boxing went to a PPV model, and the NFL is not going to do that. 

Baseball is a boring game to many people, the NFL and college football are not.

Every model we have done, CBS, ESPN, NBC, etc....let's put it this way, we're not spending billions of dollars on a sport that isn't going to be king of the hill over the next 15 to 20 years.  Some of these contracts already go into the 2020's. 

So your contention is boxing's WORLDWIDE decline is due purely to PPV model and nothing to do with sport fans tastes moving away from brutality.  Let me guess, you must work in the broadcasting industry because you seem to hammer every nail with the same hammer!

To further your argument, if boxing were to move to ESPN for, say a revival of the most popular TV show of the 1950s, Friday Night Fights, boxing would return to its former glory.  Oh, wait, Friday Night Fights has returned to ESPN a few years ago so the PPV model is going away (save a few really big fights) and yet the sport is not really getting more popular.

[Pakuni]

The most popular sports in the 1950s

Baseball
Boxing
Horse Racing
Track & Field
Football

This may have been true in 1920s, but it's nowhere close to the case in the 1950s.
Gallup conducted polls in 1948 and 1961 asking people about their favorite spots to watch.
The results ('48, followed by '61):
Baseball - 39 percent/34 percent
Football - 17 percent/21 percent
Basketball - 10 percent/9 percent
Hockey - 3 percent/2 percent
Boxing - 2 percent/3 percent
Horse Racing, golf, swimming, skiing - 1 percent

http://www.mrpopculture.com/january-1-1961

So, it's pretty clear football had a firm grip on #2 through the entire 1950s (and eventually became #1 in the late 60s). Keep in mind, while the NFL wasn't nearly the monster  in the 40s and 50s that it is today college football was hugely popular back then.

[Pakuni]

The lawyers went after the NFL first because they have money.  When they are done with them, they are going after college and HS and will gut them before they are done.

No chance. In most states it's nearly impossible - in some states literally impossible - to sue a government entity like a school for negligence.

[brandx]

The most popular sports in the 1950s

Baseball
Boxing
Horse Racing
Track & Field
Football

As I said - things change.

And the one thing we know about the future is - things will change.

Will football keep it's current level of popularity? Despite Chicos telling us it will, none of us (including Chicos) know that answer

[forgetful]

No chance. In most states it's nearly impossible - in some states literally impossible - to sue a government entity like a school for negligence.

While I see suits against schools at the high school level having no success, I find it nearly impossible for Universities to avoid lawsuits.

The Universities have pretty well established that they are acting in a commercial manner with the signing of large TV contracts.  I can see that easily nullifying the government immunity.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The most popular sports in the 1950s

Baseball
Boxing
Horse Racing
Track & Field
Football

Football is the perfect television sport.  It thrives in a world of technology.  Horse racing and track & Field do not.  Boxing chose their own death (and even so, they are still making a lot of money on some PPV).  Baseball is a respectable second.

You need a sport with action, intensity, high speed, and a defined window of time (baseball doesn't have it).  Football has all of those.  It is also a minimal commitment of one game a week, usually on the weekend.  It is the most enlightened sports model and nothing else really comes close, especially in the media age.

Of your list from the 1950's, only two are still around and one of them is very much in the lead.  I'd love to see what is going to supplant it....nothing that is out there today.  Maybe a new sport comes along, but

[brandx]

Football is the perfect television sport.

You need a sport with action, intensity, high speed, and a defined window of time (baseball doesn't have it).  Football has all of those.  It is also a minimal commitment of one game a week, usually on the weekend.  It is the most enlightened sports model and nothing else really comes close, especially in the media age.

I don't think any of us are arguing these points. But, I'm guessing that when the Romans went to the coliseum, they figured that what they were seeing would never be outdone either.

[keefe]

I don't think any of us are arguing these points. But, I'm guessing that when the Romans went to the coliseum, they figured that what they were seeing would never be outdone either.

The more things change the more they stay the same. There is no mistaking the lineage of today's brutal sports. A veneer of civilization is all that prevents the thumb's down verdict.