Am I missing something? JJJ/Freshman Impact

[goldeneagle91114]

Hi all,

I'm pretty new to the board (see number of posts) and was hoping some of you "old timers" could shed some light on question I have.

There is a lot of conversation around JJJ and his impact next year. However, Buzz never seems to play freshman all that much. Why do we think JJJ will be different? this is not meant to be a loaded question, just curious.

Thanks all!

[bilsu]

That is not neceassily true. Gardner played a lot as a freshmen. Blue played a lot as a freshmen. Both Smith and Maymon were playing a fair amount before they transfered at mid-season their freshmen year. Steve Taylor played and would of played a lot more, if Lockett had not transferred in. Derrick Wilson and Mayo played  a fair amount as freshmen. The limiting factor in almost all of the above cases was the fact that there were experienced players in front of them. The freshmen that did not play much generally were weak on defense.

[real chili 83]

Hi all,

I'm pretty new to the board (see number of posts) and was hoping some of you "old timers" could shed some light on question I have.

There is a lot of conversation around JJJ and his impact next year. However, Buzz never seems to play freshman all that much. Why do we think JJJ will be different? this is not meant to be a loaded question, just curious.

Thanks all!

First step is to change your name to Warrior91114.   

Bilsu has it nailed.

[Markusquette]

What bilsu said but to answer your other question many people just believe JaJuan is one of the most talented incoming recruits we have gotten recently.  He seems to have a very polished offensive game.  Unlike Vander in HS, JJJ has more of a polished shot and smooth offensive game.  It appears he possesses the same athleticism too.  

Can't forget about Duane Wilson's potential impact too.  It's always speculation, so who knows.  This recruiting class is potentially the most unpredictable we've had.  Any one of these guys could step up or step back.

[GoldenZebra]

I just think we are all getting our hopes up too much. They are great recruits...but I dont see that much of an impact like some suggest. i still think they play decent minutes though

[BCHoopster]

Freshman are what they are, there freshman.  The upper class run the show, barely does any freshman come in on an experienced team and lead the team, particularly at guard.  Butch
Lee the #1 recruit out of New York averaged 8.7 points as a freshman.  I think that was great for that team, but in no way shape or form was he going to lead that team.  In saying that,
Duane Wilson has a chance to be special, if he is and the upper class buy into it, he might and I am saying might average double figures.

[flash]

I just think we are all getting our hopes up too much. They are great recruits...but I dont see that much of an impact like some suggest. i still think they play decent minutes though

I agree, I would be surprised if any of the freshman averaged above 6-7ppg.  I hope Duane Wilson comes in and establishes himself as the starter, but that is doubtful.  I expect this class to be special a couple years down the road, but there is always that transition period. 

[willie warrior]

I agree, I would be surprised if any of the freshman averaged above 6-7ppg.  I hope Duane Wilson comes in and establishes himself as the starter, but that is doubtful.  I expect this class to be special a couple years down the road, but there is always that transition period. 

If we do not get 6 to7 ppg from some of the newbies, we could be in trouble. 12-15ppg from Ox and same from J. Wilson are likely, but we are not going to get any scoring from Anderson, De. Wilson, Thomas or Otule. Add the numbers:
OX: say 13ppg
J. Wilson: say 14
Otule: say 6

We will need 8-10ppg from McKay and hopefully another 8ppg from Taylor. That gives us about 50ppg from those guys. To get to the next level, we will needabout 22-25 ppg from the rest. It is doable, but JJJ and or Du. Wilson will need to step up. Face it, we were offensively challenged quite a bit last year.

[Goose]

BC Hoopster
Agree on your Butch comment, but times have changed. Many of the elite programs live off playing top recruits. AAU has changed the game and the very top recruits are more prepared to transition to college bll than when Butch was freshman. IMO for us to move to next level we need to recruit kids that are ready to play from day one. That said, you only need one impact freshman every year or two. I believe we will have two impact players at guard position this year.

In addition, Steve Taylor could have and should have received more minutes this year. He had potential to be an upper lvel freshman this past year. Not going to argue with Buzz's thought process because it works, but great coaches make adjustments as they mature as coach. Buzz has ability to roll dice with young guys now because he has a strong national reputation. This is the year we see our young guys make immediate impact IMO.

[Windyplayer]

However, Buzz never seems to play freshman all that much.

I get where you're coming from with this statement, but the issue isn't that they're freshman, it's that they're not ready. Buzz would have no problem playing LeBron or Melo as freshmen just as he has no problem not playing a junior or senior. When it comes to PT, age is just a number. It comes down to talent, in-game approach, and an understanding of how to play within the system. Some freshmen just get it. If any of these freshmen get it, they'll play and have a major impact on this team.  

[WarriorFan]

The key is where will the points come from, and I'd be amazed if any of the freshmen put up more than 5ppg, or if all together they add more than 10.  Where will points CEO from?
Center: 20ppg, 15 Gardner, 5 Otoule
PF: 13 ppg, Taylor 8, McKay 5
SF: 20ppg Anderson 5, Wilson 15
SG: 10 ppg mayo 5, jjj 5
PG: 5 ppg Wilson 2, Du Wilson 3

That's 68, what they averaged last year.  

[Windyplayer]

The key is where will the points come from, and I'd be amazed if any of the freshmen put up more than 5ppg, or if all together they add more than 10.  Where will points CEO from?
Center: 20ppg, 15 Gardner, 5 Otoule
PF: 13 ppg, Taylor 8, McKay 5
SF: 20ppg Anderson 5, Wilson 15
SG: 10 ppg mayo 5, jjj 5
PG: 5 ppg Wilson 2, Du Wilson 3

That's 68, what they averaged last year.  

So surprised that you have them averaging 13? And I'm sorry, but Mayo is not going to score more than JJJ next year.

[BCHoopster]

BC Hoopster
Agree on your Butch comment, but times have changed. Many of the elite programs live off playing top recruits. AAU has changed the game and the very top recruits are more prepared to transition to college bll than when Butch was freshman. IMO for us to move to next level we need to recruit kids that are ready to play from day one. That said, you only need one impact freshman every year or two. I believe we will have two impact players at guard position this year.

In addition, Steve Taylor could have and should have received more minutes this year. He had potential to be an upper lvel freshman this past year. Not going to argue with Buzz's thought process because it works, but great coaches make adjustments as they mature as coach. Buzz has ability to roll dice with young guys now because he has a strong national reputation. This is the year we see our young guys make immediate impact IMO.

I agree with your statement about the players today being better than years past, they are more prepared than ever.  With Duane Wilson living here, I am sure going to the Al earlier
than most new freshman will prepare him to play with his new teammates.  That is why I believe he might be special.  Offensively, he is probably there, Defensively, that is another question.
Steve Taylor offensively was fine, will play ahead of Juan in my estimation but the knee injury might hold him back.  His D at times was suspect.  Freshman who stay 4 years have to go
to school, the one and done do not, nor ever care to graduate, they take a few cupcake courses in fall, and then coast.  I do not see any of the MU kids as one and done.  So there is
a bigger transition for them, it is school, away from home for the first time, new friends, and basketball.  It is a lot to take in as a freshman.

[MU82]

That is not neceassily true. Gardner played a lot as a freshmen. Blue played a lot as a freshmen. Both Smith and Maymon were playing a fair amount before they transfered at mid-season their freshmen year. Steve Taylor played and would of played a lot more, if Lockett had not transferred in. Derrick Wilson and Mayo played  a fair amount as freshmen. The limiting factor in almost all of the above cases was the fact that there were experienced players in front of them. The freshmen that did not play much generally were weak on defense.

Actually, I guess it depends on how one defines "a lot." Gardner averaged 9 minutes as a freshman -- less than a quarter of each game. Blue averaged 19 -- less than half of each game. I don't consider that "a lot," but maybe some do. Todd Mayo played more as a freshman (21 mpg) than anyone since the Amigos.

One of the interesting things for me will be how willing Buzz is to use the freshmen next season. He has a strong sense of loyalty and a strong feeling that kids should "earn it." I agree with those, but I also wonder if he has been a little stubborn at times. Lots of Scoopers were begging for more Steve Taylor last season, that's for sure.

Buzz is a coach and coaches want to win. I trust that if Derrick Wilson isn't getting it done, Duane Wilson will at least get a real chance -- just as Mayo did his freshman year when other more-tenured guards were struggling.

This will be an interesting experiment. We all are thrilled about having a top-10 recruiting class. Will it affect our ability to attract top recruits in the future if Buzz doesn't play the 4-star freshmen (and hopefully 5-stars) as much as other coaches do?

Believe me, I'm not saying Buzz is doing it "wrong." I'm just saying recruits watch this stuff and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[esotericmindguy]

Dom James Freshman:
2005-06    31g 32.5min 15.3pts 43.1FG% 30.13% 64.1FT% 5.4A    4.5RBs 0.4BLKs 1.6STLs

It can be done, he was the last recruit ranked as highly as JJJ and the minutes will be available. There is a reason Juan tried to transfer, and JJJ is that reason.

[MUfan12]

There is a reason Juan tried to transfer, and JJJ is that reason.

You could not be more wrong about this.

[willie warrior]

The key is where will the points come from, and I'd be amazed if any of the freshmen put up more than 5ppg, or if all together they add more than 10.  Where will points CEO from?
Center: 20ppg, 15 Gardner, 5 Otoule
PF: 13 ppg, Taylor 8, McKay 5
SF: 20ppg Anderson 5, Wilson 15
SG: 10 ppg mayo 5, jjj 5
PG: 5 ppg Wilson 2, Du Wilson 3

That's 68, what they averaged last year.  

And 68 did not get us to the next level. Need to score a consistent 70 plus. Doubt if we will get 200PPG out of SF, unless Wilson has a monster year. Do not believe that Anderson will verage 5ppg.  We need to get better than 10 ppg at 2G and should with JJJ and Mayo. Still think Burton will get some points, and lekely Mc Kay wiil average more than 5.

[Badgerhater]

Dom James Freshman:
2005-06    31g 32.5min 15.3pts 43.1FG% 30.13% 64.1FT% 5.4A    4.5RBs 0.4BLKs 1.6STLs

It can be done, he was the last recruit ranked as highly as JJJ and the minutes will be available. There is a reason Juan tried to transfer, and JJJ is that reason.

The Three Amigos were better than everyone else on the team their frosh year with the exception of Steve Novak.

Frosh under Buzz get major minutes if they can contribute as well as an upperclassman or provide something that the team needs.   MU has lots of good players up and down the roster.

Finding minutes for everyone who can play is a high-quality problem.

[Badgerhater]

And 68 did not get us to the next level. Need to score a consistent 70 plus. Doubt if we will get 200PPG out of SF, unless Wilson has a monster year. Do not believe that Anderson will verage 5ppg.  We need to get better than 10 ppg at 2G and should with JJJ and Mayo. Still think Burton will get some points, and lekely Mc Kay wiil average more than 5.

I think Juan will average two 3-pointers a game with another basket or two tossed in.  He will be a solid 8-point guy.

With regard to the team scoring.....it will be up because we drop some of the toughest competition in the conference.

[bilsu]

We have 5 newcomers and it reasonable to expect any two of the 5 to be impactful new players. Beyond that it becomes a matter of playing time. There are too many returning veterans to expect all the newcomers to get significant playing time. I believe the two most talented players are JJJ and McKay. They also are the two players that I worry the most about having the physical strength to play high major division one basketball. Also, if you look at history form the Crean era on an impactful freshmen average about 6 points a game. Diener, Hayward, Novak, Blue etc. were all around that number  Butler average about 6 pts his first year. Of course there are others that have scored more, but 6 points for a new player that is going to be a star in future years is pretty average.

[GGGG]

You could not be more wrong about this.

Exactly.  Seriously if people don't know what is going on, don't speak as if you do.

[GGGG]

And 68 did not get us to the next level. Need to score a consistent 70 plus.

Really?  That whole 2 extra ppg is what is going to get us there?

[willie warrior]

Really?  That whole 2 extra ppg is what is going to get us there?

Yes, scoring more points will win us more games. We had no scoring against Syracuse in Elite 8. We had 46 points in that game--poor offense. More points would have taken us to the next level. Not that hard to register, is it Skink? I know you get your jollies trying to gig me. life is good, isn't it?

[Sir Lawrence]

Yes, scoring more points will win us more games. We had no scoring against Syracuse in Elite 8. We had 46 points in that game--poor offense. More points would have taken us to the next level. Not that hard to register, is it Skink? I know you get your jollies trying to gig me. life is good, isn't it?

Um, we had 39 points against Syracuse.  Had Gardner not tossed up a three with 19 seconds left, Marquette would have had, well, I'll let you do the math.....

[GGGG]

Yes, scoring more points will win us more games. We had no scoring against Syracuse in Elite 8. We had 46 points in that game--poor offense. More points would have taken us to the next level. Not that hard to register, is it Skink? I know you get your jollies trying to gig me. life is good, isn't it?

Back to your original statement:  "And 68 did not get us to the next level."  That is factually incorrect.

Marquette PPG under Buzz:

2012-13: 68 (E8)
2011-12: 75 (S16)
2010-11: 75 (S16)
2009-10: 73 (64)
2008-09: 78!!! (32)

So 68 ppg actually *did* get us to the next level.  Huh.  I have a theory on that...it's called "defense."  You can win basketball games many ways.  And Buzz's best defensive team got him further than he has ever gone as coach.

And back to the original topic, the freshmen will play when they show they can defend.