Reggie Johnson not traveling to DC.....

[mr.MUskie]

His big asset seems to  be...

His big asset.

[MUMountin]

Also think about what Buzz has talked about with Otule--while he may not appear in the stats all the time, he totally changes the complexion of the game because of the space that he takes up.  You can't replace that, and it will change the overall complexion of their team. 

Also, Gamble looks to be both more foul-prone and a terrible FT shooter. 

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Also, Gamble looks to be both more foul-prone and a terrible FT shooter. 

All great points, but I didn't even think of this aspect of his absence. Johnson's 67.8% FT% looks Novak-esque compared to Gamble (47.4%), Kadji (66.1%), and Jekiri (55%). Lets the perimeter defenders stay a little closer to the shooters because our bigs can be aggressive down low.

[Golden Avalanche]

Not everything that helps a team shows up in the box score.....

Signed,
Chris Otule

[MU31]

Espn.com just reported Miami's Reggie Johnson out for the Sweet 16 games.

[4everwarriors]

Coincidentally, "Reggie Johnson" was my alias when I was an undergrad.

Thought you are traditional?

[bobnoxious]

Signed,
Chris Otule

Thanks I forgot to sign it

[ZiggysFryBoy]

they aren't even letting the cat go to DC to watch his boys play?

[wardle2wade]

they aren't even letting the cat go to DC to watch his boys play?

Must be recoup'ing from surgery and unable to fly.  Works for me.

[Benny B]

The more I'm reading/thinking about this, the better this is looking for MU.

I hope to God they front DG.  He will be crapping Gamble and Kadji chunks all morning on Friday.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Not everything that helps a team shows up in the box score.....

See: Otule, Christopher; winter/spring of 2012

edit: should have known others would be there first

[JakeBarnes]

The Miami Herald said Reggie might be back for the final four.  Most of the posters on their scout board are already talking about how Jekeri will look good against Zeller and then Reggie will be back for the Semis.  I'd love for some crow to be eaten.

[Avenue Commons]

they aren't even letting the cat go to DC to watch his boys play?

According to the Pat Forde article on Yahoo he had surgery on his meniscus (knee).

Typical recovery is 6-8 weeks for that unless it was just removing some debris.

Best of luck to Reggie Johnson. I sincerely hope the surgery and his recovery are successful.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaab--sources--miami-center-reggie-johnson-out--but--could-come-back--for-final-four-234653188.html

[MU82]

The floor at the Verizon Center is grateful that it will not have to support both Johnson and Davante!

[Avenue Commons]

The more I'm reading/thinking about this, the better this is looking for MU.

I hope to God they front DG.  He will be crapping Gamble and Kadji chunks all morning on Friday.

Miami should have been a 1 seed ahead of Gonzaga. We have our work cut out for us no matter what. Miami is very, very, very good. Great coach and an elite PG.

[Benny B]

Miami should have been a 1 seed ahead of Gonzaga. We have our work cut out for us no matter what. Miami is very, very, very good. Great coach and an elite PG.

I don't disagree, but look at it this way... Johnson has been to Miami all season what Otule has been to Marquette over the last couple weeks; imagine what the atmosphere would be like on Scoop if Otule so much as came down with the flu today.

To lose a big piece of your puzzle on basically 2-3 days' notice is much more significant that one might initally anticipate.  That doesn't mean that Miami isn't still capable of playing like a 2-seed (or 1-seed), but any time spent adjusting and reorganizing your own team is time you're not spending on preparing to play the other team.  If Buzz & Co can take advantage, this has the potential to be a huge exploit.

The consensus line this morning was Miami -5.5; however since the Johnson news was announced, the consensus line dropped a half point to -5, with some offshore houses offering -4.5 now.

[77fan88warrior]

Miami should have been a 1 seed ahead of Gonzaga. We have our work cut out for us no matter what. Miami is very, very, very good. Great coach and an elite PG.

Larkin was supposed to play at DePaul and feel bad for them. Jerry still might be there for all we know.

[TallTitan34]

Larkin was supposed to play at DePaul and feel bad for them. Jerry still might be there for all we know.

Wasn't it Purnell who recruited Larkin after Jerry was already gone?

[Retire54]

Pretty sure he was going to go to Clemson for Purnell and then switched to follow Purnell to DePaul. Took summer classes then was let out of his commitment so he could go to Miami

[Avenue Commons]

Pretty sure he was going to go to Clemson for Purnell and then switched to follow Purnell to DePaul. Took summer classes then was let out of his commitment so he could go to Miami

This is correct.

[77fan88warrior]

My bad. Wasn't there a health issue in the family?

[tower912]

Reggie Johnson is an integral part of their rotation.    It is the equivalent of MU losing Otule a year ago.   The question is whether the next man up can perform.   It also probably changes MU's approach somewhat.   With Miami thinner up front, probably more post ups for DG and CO, trying to force foul trouble. 

[Benny B]

Reggie Johnson is an integral part of their rotation.    It is the equivalent of MU losing Otule a year ago.   The question is whether the next man up can perform.   It also probably changes MU's approach somewhat.   With Miami thinner up front, probably more post ups for DG and CO, trying to force foul trouble. 

Exactly... and MU was still a S16 team, but the key takeaway is that it took MU a couple of weeks and a few games to adjust (a luxury Miami doesn't have).  There was definitely a learning curve those first few games without Otule.  They might recover fine against MU, but if I was betting against any top-four seed remaining to win it all, Miami would be far and away my first choice.

[Henry Sugar]

Just put parts of this on twitter.

Miami's offensive efficiency with Johnson (1.12 ppp). Without (1.00)
Defensive efficiency with (0.95). Without (0.90)

Avg Opponent Quality with (ranking of 87); without (102)

Granted, it's a small set of games, but Miami did face some very good teams (Arizona, LaSalle, UNC, Maryland). During that stretch, the offense really did struggle.

This may not necessarily be a good thing... If #mubb's offense is comparable to Miami's offense, but our defense is worse, then it favors Marquette to play more of an offensive type game.

[brewcity77]

Just put parts of this on twitter.

Miami's offensive efficiency with Johnson (1.12 ppp). Without (1.00)
Defensive efficiency with (0.95). Without (0.90)

Avg Opponent Quality with (ranking of 87); without (102)

Granted, it's a small set of games, but Miami did face some very good teams (Arizona, LaSalle, UNC, Maryland). During that stretch, the offense really did struggle.

This may not necessarily be a good thing... If #mubb's offense is comparable to Miami's offense, but our defense is worse, then it favors Marquette to play more of an offensive type game.

If this were a typical team of the past few years where we went 7-8 deep, I'd agree. But this team I feel really benefits from going 10-11 deep. Miami generally only goes 7 deep including Johnson. Without him, they'll likely give the minutes to Jekiri and Swoope. In the games against top-150 competition, here are their combined numbers replacing Johnson:

11.1 mpg, 2/6 FGs, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 ppg

Now I'm no John Pudner, but the Value-Add for Johnson is 1.24 while the Value-Adds for Jekiri and Swoope are 0.49 and 0.36 respectively.

Another guy who will likely get more minutes is Julian Gamble. One stat to note regarding him...he fouled out twice this season and had a total of six games where he had 4 or more fouls. Four of those six games (and both foul-outs) were games when he played extended minutes because Johnson was out.

I think the key to this game is going to be the interior. If we can establish Otule and Gardner early and get Gamble in foul trouble, it will put a lot more pressure on Kadji and also force more minutes out of the relatively ineffective Jekiri and Swoope. Miami plays man and is horrible at turning teams over defensively, so we should be able to feed the post. Getting Gamble in foul trouble early could put us in the driver's seat relatively early.