[Rosiak's Blog] MU releases schedule

[muarmy81]

   MUDish

   I am sorry but that is completely flawed logic....MU's  OOC schedule will have only a tiny sliver of an effect on our seeding.  It will have a tiny effect only in one way...if we have some bad losses ala SDSU last year.  That is absolutely it!! People.  it will have no more effect. 

MU's sedding will be determined by our conference record and finish along with how we perform in our last 8 or so games and in the BE tournament.  We were "underseeded" last year because we stumbled down the stretch, came in 6th in conference and lost Jerel.  You are absolutely delusional if you beleive last year's OOc schedule had anything to do with our seeding and equally delusional if you feel it will this year.!!!


Here's one for you ....."picture early March  the committee is assembled and Mu is coming off a 14-4 BE record finals of the BE tourney, maybe semifinals, Over all record of 25-6 and ranked #12 in the country a top 20 SOS and a top 15 RPI......and some commitee member says " they should be a 6 or 7 seed becuase of a week OOC"  Not only am I laughing right now but that guy would be laughed out of the room as well.
Ludicrous

Let me ask this question....Say we only played 16 BE games this year and hhad a OOc road game against say Vanderbilt and a home game against say BC.  Would you still feel the same way?  Well folks that is exactly wht we do have but instead those two games are against BE teams!!  6 of one 1/2 dozen of another.  not that hard to grasp.

Well put,
The only way this affects our seeding come march is if we loose to a cupcake.  How often do you hear all the "experts" talk about who's in and who's out with respect to their OOC record?  It's always, well they finished 8-8 in the ACC or 9-7 in the Big East or did well in the SEC so I think they're in or seeded at such and such...

[DegenerateDish]

You're totally missing the point too. It has nothing to do with overall OOC record!

You hear experts ALL THE TIME saying "who did you beat, and where did you beat them" and if you think that doesn't apply to non-conference opponents, then why evern bother playing teams out of conference? It affects our seeding, absolutely. When you have Teams A, B, C, D that are all similar, they're going to ask "who did you beat and where did you beat them?"

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

While I agree that the non-conf. schedule is disappointing, I think your dislike of Crean is bleeding through a little too much here.

We do know that the coach has influence over the schedule, but common sense and common knowledge also tells us that there are a lot of people involved in making the schedule (president, AD, opposing schools AD, opposing coach, travel logistics, etc. etc.)

To simply blame one person (coach Crean) is really misguided and silly.

Ultimately he is the head of the program, so I understand that he is an easy target, but I'm not sure he is the correct target.

You might be right about my dislike of Crean, but you're crazy if you don't think he makes the schedule on his own. You think he's asking Fr. Wild who he can play? Or our interim AD?  Misguided? I don't think so.

Well, like I said, I do believe that Crean is responsible for most of the decision making regarding everything with basketball. My guess is that everything is run past Fr. Wild and the AD for approval, but realistically coach is the one calling the shots (I don't think that is uncommon for a lot of schools).

The problem with scheduling is all of the variables that are out of MU's hands. Travel, BC availability, student's class work, opposing team's travel, $$$ in the contract, opposing teams schedules, etc. etc.

I'm not saying its impossible to put together a great schedule... but I don't think it's as easy as "why don't we play so and so?"

Anyways, you jab at Crean might not be entirely misguided... but on the flip-side, be prepared to give Crean a ton of credit when MU is successful this season.

If you want to hold a coach accountable for all aspects of the program, then you need to give him the appropriate amount of credit when that program is successful.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Crean had a great 2005-06 regular season.

[mufan924]

Does anyone have any pacifiers or binkies?

Thought we were all rooting for the same team here.

[jmayer1]

You're totally missing the point too. It has nothing to do with overall OOC record!

You hear experts ALL THE TIME saying "who did you beat, and where did you beat them" and if you think that doesn't apply to non-conference opponents, then why evern bother playing teams out of conference? It affects our seeding, absolutely. When you have Teams A, B, C, D that are all similar, they're going to ask "who did you beat and where did you beat them?"

Actually you are the one who is totally missing the point.

You can't replace our two worst Big East games with BC and @Vandy.  You have no idea which Big East games we wouldn't have had.  If we win a good amount of the Big East road games, it will not matter that we didn't play one more BCS road game.

When the committe says "who did you beat and where did you beat them?" they aren't just going to look at the OOC schedule, they are gonna look at the conference schedule too.  Maybe Kentucky will have one more out of conference road win, but if Marquette has one more in conference road win; what will the difference be?  None.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Crean had a great 2005-06 regular season.

AND he helped get the al mcguire center built, and he helped MU get into the big east, and he's the second best coach MU has ever had, and he landed Dwade, and he got MU to the final 4, and he got 3 guys into the NBA, and etc. etc.

You can't pick and chose what he is/isn't responsible for.

If you are going to hold him accountable for something like scheduling, well, then you have to give him credit for the things listed above. It's not like he is only responsible for the bad things, and it's just dumb luck when good things happen to the program.

[Harrison]

MUDISH

 said "You hear experts ALL THE TIME saying "who did you beat, and where did you beat them" and if you think that doesn't apply to non-conference opponents, then why evern bother playing teams out of conference? It affects our seeding, absolutely. When you have Teams A, B, C, D that are all similar, they're going to ask "who did you beat and where did you beat them?"  "

Maybe you are not seeing the forestdue to the trees .... but if we go 12-6 to 14-4 or something of those lines in the BE , then the answer to your /their question of whod did you beat and where did you beat them will be very very very impressive.   Additionally, How many times have you heard those same "gurus" rave about a "big win" in Novemebr??!??!  if anything my recollection is it is always heavily discounted.  ie.  "Well they did beat so and so but that was way back in December"  in other words no one cares what you did in December. 

Additionally,  you pick Cincy etc or the two worst team on the schedule in your opinion...we'll see who is better this year Vandy or Cincy.  it really does not matter they will be close enough.  And how convienent to pick the two worst teams on the schedule. 

read jameyer's post he is dead on ...read it like 10 times.

[DegenerateDish]

You're totally missing the point too. It has nothing to do with overall OOC record!

You hear experts ALL THE TIME saying "who did you beat, and where did you beat them" and if you think that doesn't apply to non-conference opponents, then why evern bother playing teams out of conference? It affects our seeding, absolutely. When you have Teams A, B, C, D that are all similar, they're going to ask "who did you beat and where did you beat them?"

Actually you are the one who is totally missing the point.

You can't replace our two worst Big East games with BC and @Vandy.  You have no idea which Big East games we wouldn't have had.  If we win a good amount of the Big East road games, it will not matter that we didn't play one more BCS road game.

When the comitte says "who did you beat and where did you beat them?" the aren't just going to look at the OOC schedule, they are gonna look at the conference schedule too.  Maybe Kentucky will have one more out of conference road win, but if Marquette has one more in conference road win; what will the difference be?  None.

Why can't you replace those two BE teams? I didn't know there were conditions in "hypothetical land". I'll throw it back at you, you have NO IDEA which BE teams it would be. Could it be South Florida and Cincy? ABSOLUTELY. Could it be Georgeotwn and West Virginia? ABSOLUTELY. If you want to split hairs, you could take two average BE teams (Providence and DePaul) and use those two as the hypothetical.

For a FANTASTIC read, check out Seth Davis' article from this last March on the effects your scheudling in regards to the NCAA tournament committee. Seth had some good access direct with the committee and wrote on it. If you don't want to read the whole article, here are the highlights:

"ESPN has recently added a feature during its studio shows listing the credentials of two teams without revealing to the talking heads who the teams are. But the first piece of data on the graphic is always the teams' RPI rankings. The rankings are usually close, like 47 vs. 61. The segment is a lot of fun to watch, but that first set of numbers is all but worthless. The UCLA sheet makes that clear.

Here's the other thing I'll bet you noticed on the sheet. While UCLA's RPI ranking is hard to find unless you go looking for it, the blue shading that highlights the Bruins' non-conference games leaps off the page. This is not an accident. The committee wants to know what choices Ben Howland made with the part of his schedule he was able to control.

The significance of the non-conference schedule might be understood by the public, but I still think it is not emphasized enough. Again, go back to ESPN's comparison game. As part of the criteria they list the respective overall strength of schedule rankings for each team. That, however, is skewed because it is a reflection of the conference that team plays in. The more relevant numbers are the teams' respective non-conference strength of schedule rankings. There's a reason those games are highlighted in blue on UCLA's sheet. The committee wants them to be easy to spot.

For example, Drexel, which is squarely on the bubble, has played the 95th strongest schedule in the country. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has played the 34th toughest schedule. Advantage, Mississippi State. But Mississippi State's nonc-onference SOS ranking is 124, while Drexel's is five. Also keep in mind that for a team such as Drexel, upgrading your schedule means hitting the road, whereas BCS teams like Mississippi State have the financial wherewithal to pay mid- and low-majors to come to their place to play. So now if you were choosing between Drexel and Mississippi State for the final at-large spot, which would you pick?"

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/seth_davis/03/08/hoop.thoughts/index.html

[DegenerateDish]

read jameyer's post he is dead on ...read it like 10 times.

Read Seth Davis' article about 10 times. Nice try today Harrison. Thanks for playing, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[StillAWarrior]

Quoting Seth Davis:  "For example, Drexel, which is squarely on the bubble, has played the 95th strongest schedule in the country. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has played the 34th toughest schedule. Advantage, Mississippi State. But Mississippi State's nonc-onference SOS ranking is 124, while Drexel's is five. Also keep in mind that for a team such as Drexel, upgrading your schedule means hitting the road, whereas BCS teams like Mississippi State have the financial wherewithal to pay mid- and low-majors to come to their place to play. So now if you were choosing between Drexel and Mississippi State for the final at-large spot, which would you pick?"

and

Read Seth Davis' article about 10 times. Nice try today Harrison. Thanks for playing, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

I'm not really interested in picking sides in this fight, but I think it's reasonable to point out that neither Drexel nor Mississippi State made the NCAA tournament.  Both went to the NIT.  Miss. St. was a #1 seed, and Drexel was a #3.  Drexel lost in the first round to the #6 seed (NC State) and Miss. St. lost in the final four to the eventual champion (and #1 seed) West Virginia.

Seth had some nice thoughts, and I enjoyed his article.  But, his choice to focus on Drexel and Miss. St. turned out to be misguided.

[Harrison]

That is a really funny article to read.....HMMMMM?

Oh that's right UCLA was a #1 seed and Drexel missed the cut!!

Thanks, I hope you are not a lawyer.

[DegenerateDish]

"The committee wants to know what choices Ben Howland made with the part of his schedule he was able to control."

I know, I know, it's tough to understand and comprehend. Even for a #1 seed like UCLA, the committee wants to know who UCLA played out of conference. Imagine that.

[Harrison]

......and Drexel with the #5 OOC schedule in the country and 20+ wins goes to the NIT.  BUT how!?

Give it a rest.  You are wrong.

[DegenerateDish]

......and Drexel with the #5 OOC schedule in the country and 20+ wins goes to the NIT.  BUT how!?

Give it a rest.  You are wrong.

I'm happy to let the experts answer your questions. Let's let Joe Lunardi field this one...

"My evaluation today places the Dragons as the very last team out of the projected NCAA field. And this is not a bad thing, as more teams typically tend to play their way "out" than "in" at this late stage of the season.

Drexel actually has the best at-large profile among the top four CAA teams. It can't be discounted, however, that the Dragons are 1-4 against VCU, Old Dominion and Hofstra. They did face VCU without star forward Frank Elegar, but it's the two fairly convincing losses to Old Dominion which hurt the most at this point."

AGAIN, my point is that OCC matters. Drexel would never have been in the position they were in if they didn't go out and face good teams. Losing in their conference only hurt their chances even more than if they didn't have the OCC schedule they had.

I don't make up this stuff Harrison. I'm thinking if the experts are talking about it, there might be some truth behind it? Could be just me.

[Harrison]

So then what you are actually saying is how they did in conference actually carried even more weight than the #5 OOC SOS in the nation!!!

Thanks for finally joining the crowd.

Truly i hope you are not a lawyer.

[DegenerateDish]

Sigh.

To get to the #5 OOC, they needed to absolutely play the OOC schedule they had. Considering the conference they play in, they had no choice.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe I ever said that conference play didn't matter. Actually what mattered is that THEY LOST TO BAD TEAMS. It didn't matter if they were in conference or out of conference, the fact is they lost to teams you can't lose to if you want to make the tournament. The fact that these teams were in their conference is only reflected in the fact that they HAD to play these teams, they had no choice. We're not even talking about Drexel right now if they didn't go out and make the OCC schedule they did. They also lost to Penn and Rider out of conference. Do you think that had an effect?

The 2001 Georgia team is the PERFECT example of how an OCC gets you in the tourney. They finished 16-14, worst record ever to get into the NCAA tourney. They played in a power conference, but they went out and played a good Minnesotta team, Utah, Stanford, Georgia Tech, NC St, Wake Forest, Cal, Villanova. Given they have the resources to schedule this way, but you are insane/crazy/out of your mind if you don't think the Committee seeds you based on who you play in OCC.

The "truly I hope you are not a lawyer" bit is funny. It's funny that I provide tangible quotes/facts and you just comment on it and buy into your own philosophy based on it. Feel free to give some expert analysis from someone or anything of substance.

The defense rests.

[jmayer1]

"The committee wants to know what choices Ben Howland made with the part of his schedule he was able to control."

I know, I know, it's tough to understand and comprehend. Even for a #1 seed like UCLA, the committee wants to know who UCLA played out of conference. Imagine that.

Marquette will have played UW, LSU/Ok St, and Duke all either away or at neutral sites.  I feel pretty good with those teams being highlighted on our non-conference schedule with the huge conference slate we are already playing.

Would you rather play BC and Vandy than Providence and Depaul?  I dunno, to me I don't think it makes a damn bit of difference.  

Marquette's RPI and those of its opponent will still be plenty high that I don't think not having one more home and home in year when we play at UW and at Maui is going to hurt us at all.  Contrary to what Davis thinks, the committe looks plenty at RPI and especially those of its opponents.  Lunardi, who is the best at what he does, definitely backs this up.  

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/Interviews/JoeLunardi.htm

[mu1642]

ALL WHINE, EVERY YEAR! DON'T BUY SEASON TICKETS IF YOU FEEL THAT WAY!

[Secret of the Ouse]

ALL WHINE, EVERY YEAR! DON'T BUY SEASON TICKETS IF YOU FEEL THAT WAY!

Thank you, we didnt join the big east so we would have to schedule a hard OOC.  this years home schedule is one of the best in the past few years, so whats all the fuss about

[Avenue Commons]

We finally play DePaul on a Saturday and it's in Milwaukee. Damn.

[Harrison]

Thanks Jaymeyer....i think actually know that by the end of the season MU's SOS will be hard to beat.  The whole part of the schedule they can control was controlled pretty damn well.  Is the actual complaint that they are not being played in the Bradley? I wonder?   Show me how many programs across the country will play  At UW and then LSU?OSU and then Duke or some other team on a Nuetral court??  How many other teams that are ranked in the preseoson will take on that type of challenge.  When conference begins basically the only teams with a stonger OOC SOS will be the drexels of the World.  Then we enter the BIG East and we will have one of the best Conferce SOS in the entire nation.  OUR SOS will be top 15 in the country and we are arguing the OOC is not hard enough?? It's actually as good or better than our peers and no one can hold a calendle to our Conference scheduel.  

If this is really an argument that you spent $30 x the number of seats times the Number of OOC games that is one thing.  But to say out OOC strenght of scheduel is either weak or will hurt us is simply baseless.

[DegenerateDish]

Show me how many programs across the country will play  At UW and then LSU?OSU and then Duke or some other team on a Nuetral court??  How many other teams that are ranked in the preseoson will take on that type of challenge.   

1. Arizona (Virginia, @ Kansas, Texas A&M, Illinois, @ Memphis)
2. North Carolina (Louisville on a neutral court, @ Ohio St, @ Kentucky
3. Kansas (Arizona, @ USC, @ Georgia Tech, @ Boston College)
4. Kentucky (possibly Memphis on a neutral court, North Carolina, @ Indiana, Louisville)
5. Duke (Marquette, Wisconsin, Pitt on a netural court)
6. Memphis (Arizona, Gonzaga, Georgetown, USC on a neutral court, possibly Kentucky on a neutral court)
7. Louisville (North Carolina in Vegas, @ Kentucky, Purdue in Indy)

Do you need me to keep going, or no?

[Harrison]

yes, I really think you need to keep going.  What have you done...you have named 7 schools that have 3 or 4 big time games...just like us.  Remember our OOC SOS is really going to hurt us. ALL you have done is name 7 schools in our same boat.

8. MU ( @ UW, LSU/OSU neutral, DUKE/Illinois neutral)

[DegenerateDish]

Ask and you shall receive my friend. Remember, you said, and I quote "Show me how many programs across the country will play XYZ? How many teams will take on that type of challenge?" All I'm doing is answering your question. You made it sound like no one else is.

8. Mich St (CBE in Kansas City, Texas, @ BYU, North Carolina St)
9. Gonzaga (@ Memphis, UConn in Boston, Tennessee in Seattle, Georgia, Wash St.)
10. Texas (@ Wisconsin, @ Mich St. possible games with Tennessee and WVU in Newark)
11. Washington (Pitt, @ Ok St, Preseason NIT, @ LSU)
12. Tennessee (@ Gonzaga, Memphis, possible games with Texas and WVU in Newark)
13. Georgetown (Michigan, @ Alabama, @ Memphis)
14. USC (Oklahoma, Kansas, Memphis in NYC)
15. Ohio St (Preseason NIT, North Carolina, Florida)
16. Indiana (@ SIU, Kentucky, Georgia Tech)

Let me know when to stop.