ESPN Commercial

[MarsupialMadness]

Have you seen the March Madness ESPN commercial with "Robo-Bilas"? The robot shows a matchup of MU vs Gonzaga and predicts Marquette the winner. I hope Robo-Bilas is right!

[keefe]

Have you seen the March Madness ESPN commercial with "Robo-Bilas"? The robot shows a matchup of MU vs Gonzaga and predicts Marquette the winner. I hope Robo-Bilas is right!

No way it happens. The Bail Bondsman has already pronounced Gonzaga grossly overrated and the first 1-16 casualty.

[ChicosBailBonds]

No way it happens. The Bail Bondsman has already pronounced Gonzaga grossly overrated and the first 1-16 casualty.

No, never said that.  Sweet 16 likely, but it would not surprise me to see them dumped in the second round depending on their opponent.  I did say I hope we are in their bracket....good to see RoboBilas and I are on the same page.  Please, please, please put us in Gonzaga's bracket and their 87th placed schedule.

[keefe]

No, never said that.  Sweet 16 likely, but it would not surprise me to see them dumped in the second round depending on their opponent.  I did say I hope we are in their bracket....good to see RoboBilas and I are on the same page.  Please, please, please put us in Gonzaga's bracket and their 87th placed schedule.

Just effing with you. I would love to see that final. I think it would be a last possession nail biter. Mark Few is a viper.

[Tigidal]

This one from last year Robo Bilas picks MU over Kentucky... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3bEJpQ2xLE

[77ncaachamps]

This one from last year Robo Bilas picks MU over Kentucky... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3bEJpQ2xLE

Can someone get a screenshot of that Robot?

Would love to post it to raise the ire of BBN colleagues.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Robo Bilas: Next Big Head

[forgetful]

I think this is actually a good year for a 16 over 1 upset.  Still extremely unlikely, but this year is as good as any.

[sarcastro]

Not sure if this'll work...

[AZWarrior]

Nicely done.   

[MUMonster03]

I think this is actually a good year for a 16 over 1 upset.  Still extremely unlikely, but this year is as good as any.

It is going to happen one of these years. Ever since the one and dones we have seen more smaller schools upset teams early on due to the one and done (major school trying to make 3 or 4 freshmen and sophomores play as a team, while smaller school is staring all juniors and above i.e. Cleveland State a couple years ago).

It is just going to take the right team, maybe slipping through the committees cracks a little, but their experience pulls the through. 1/16 games are definitely more competitive then they were a decade ago.

[Ari Gold]

Can someone get a screenshot of that Robot?

Would love to post it to raise the ire of BBN colleagues.

why just a screens shot, thats gif worthy

[Dunk The Ball Eric]

It is going to happen one of these years. Ever since the one and dones we have seen more smaller schools upset teams early on due to the one and done (major school trying to make 3 or 4 freshmen and sophomores play as a team, while smaller school is staring all juniors and above i.e. Cleveland State a couple years ago).

It is just going to take the right team, maybe slipping through the committees cracks a little, but their experience pulls the through. 1/16 games are definitely more competitive then they were a decade ago.

the guys at ESPN's "Giant Killers" think so too. If you have ESPN Insider I highly recommend checking out their stuff sometime before the tourney begins. I apologize if the charts didn't paste correctly.

It seems like a top-ranked NCAA team loses every time a day ends in "Y" this season. With the top of brackets as unstable as astatine-213, it's time to ask: Could this finally be the year a No. 16 seed takes down a No. 1?
The Giant Killers statistical model tells us it's not actually likely that a No. 1 seed will become the first ever to lose its first March Madness game, but the odds are much better than we have seen in recent seasons. We estimate there's a 27 percent to 30 percent chance of an upset in 2013, compared with a range of 7 percent to 17 percent in tournaments since 2007. And if the right Killer steals an auto bid and gets seeded against a vulnerable Giant, the probability of an enormous upset could zoom to more than 40 percent. This season, it will make sense to pause at least a moment before advancing No. 1 seeds through your brackets.
Allow us to explain why and show you which potential No. 16 seeds have the best chance of pulling an upset, and which potential No. 1 seeds are most vulnerable.
Five teams have ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll this season, and none for more than five consecutive weeks. The squads now in position to secure top seeds aren't horribly weaker than past groups, though. Looking at the seven teams most bracketologists had as potential No. 1s at the beginning of this week -- Duke, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville and Michigan -- we estimate they are an average of 30.5 points per 100 possessions better than the average NCAA team, versus an average of 32.0 points per 100 possessions for all No. 1 seeds since 2007.
But whereas past No. 1 seeds were almost always boosted by what we call Giants' "secret sauce" -- their ability to play like teams that warded off deep underdogs in past tournaments, which helps determine our Giant and GK Ratings -- most of the 2013 crop doesn't share those characteristics. As a result, the Giants are at least slightly vulnerable:
Vulnerable Giants
Team   Rating*   'Secret Sauce'**   Odds of beating avg 16 seed
Duke   30.7   -11.0   85.7%
Georgetown   22.2   -0.6   87.9
Kansas   29.6   -1.1   94.0
Michigan   29.6   -0.7   94.2
Gonzaga   31.7   -1.2   95.1
Louisville   33.2   7.6   98.3
Indiana   36.3   4.8   98.4
Avg proj. No. 1 seed, 2013   30.5   -0.3   93.7%
Avg No. 1 seed, 2007-12   32.0   2.4   97.2%
* -- in points per 100 possessions above NCAA average, adjusted for strength of opposition
** -- points per 100 possessions of estimated over- or underperformance versus Giant Killers
The No. 1 club is also being hurt by a curious exclusion. Florida is at 38.2 points per 100 possessions above average in our spreadsheets, the best in the country. The Gators top Ken Pomeroy's rankings and rank third in BPI, but they just aren't making it into most bracketologists' top slots. Add the fourth-most efficient offense and second-most efficient defense in the NCAA to a top line that includes, say, Indiana, Louisville and Gonzaga, and the odds of a 16-over-1 upset would drop significantly -- to something like 12 percent. But that doesn't seem to be in the cards.
Meanwhile, this season's potential No. 16 seeds are quite a bit stronger than the teams we usually see at the bottom of brackets. In contrast to the Giants, many do play like successful Killers of the past:
Upset Threats
Team   League   Rating*   'Secret sauce'**   Odds of beating avg 1 seed
Robert Morris   NEC   4.1   11.5   16.6%
Niagara   MAAC   3.9   6.0   9.6
Northeastern   Colonial   1   8.8   9.5
Stony Brook   America East   13.4   -5.5   7.9
Charleston Southern   Big South   0.7   7.1   7.8
Mercer   Atlantic Sun   3.8   3.1   7.2
Long Beach State   Big West   4.3   -0.1   5.4
Southern   SWAC   2.5   -9.2   1.7
Norfolk State   MEAC   -4   -3.4   1.6
Avg proj. No. 16 seed, 2013   --   3.3   2.0   6.3%
Avg No. 16 seed, 2007-12   --   -1.4   -0.6   2.8%
* -- in points per 100 possessions above NCAA average, adjusted for strength of opposition
** -- points per 100 possessions of estimated over- or underperformance vs. Giants
As you can see, the probability that one of these deepest 'dogs will pull an upset is more than twice as great this season as it's been in recent years. Get four teams with that kind of puncher's chance into the ball, and Cinderella-16 might finally get her glass slipper.
Moreover, there's a possibility these odds could jump before the NCAA tournament gets under way. Our model identifies Niagara as just the third-best potential Giant Killer in the MAAC, and Long Beach State as only the fourth-best in the Big West. An unheralded assassin that snags an auto bid could really juice a No. 16 seed. Our dream scenario: Canisius storms out of the MAAC to take on Duke, where the Golden Griffins would have a 41.5 percent chance of pulling an all-time shocker.
Clearly, even very weak conferences can produce legitimate NCAA tournament participants. Seventeen conferences have an average strength of less than zero this season, meaning below the average D-1 team, but only five don't have even one team that's five or more points better than average. Moreover, one or two of the few really dreadful entrants are likely to get knocked out by play-in games. And all of these teams can use giant-killing strategies to make themselves scarier to Goliaths.
For instance, thanks to the "secret sauce," Robert Morris, project by Joe Lunardi in today's bracket as facing Indiana, actually has a one-in-six chance of toppling a top seed.
The overall result: The opposition awaiting No. 1 seeds today is considerably tougher than in 2007, when all four No. 16 seeds were below-average teams and Jackson State was one of the worst to ever make the tournament.
All of this could mean talent is dispersing more widely throughout the NCAA. After all, the Southern (with Davidson) and Southland (Stephen F. Austin) conferences and Ivy (Princeton) and Patriot (Bucknell) leagues aren't even part of this conversation; despite their overall poor quality, they are probably sending their best teams to No. 14 and No. 15 seeds. But it's too early to make that call.
What we can say is this: In 2012, UNC-Asheville, with a GK Rating of 17.5, was the strongest No. 16 seed our model had ever seen (our data goes back only to the 2007 tournament) and Western Kentucky posted the best performance in our database by a No. 16 seed. (In losing to Kentucky, 81-66, the Hilltoppers exceeded our model's expectations by 16.1 points. Asheville's narrow loss to Syracuse wasn't far behind.) In 2013, we bet both of those records are going to fall.
There's a three-in-10 chance a No. 1 seed will too