Root for IU to help MU's pod?

[wardle2wade]

Dare I say it, but if we are hoping to keep MU close to home, we really want tOSU to lose at IU tonight. 

Ohio State is one of those teams right there with Marquette fighting for Auburn Hills, Dayton, (and even Lexington and KC.)  If they knock off the Hoosiers on the road, that's a huge resume builder.

This being said, it's very hard for me to root for IU... I'll just root against the Buckeyes.

[4everwarriors]

I'll take my chances.

[Silkk the Shaka]

NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!

And I don't care about our pod.  I just want a good draw no matter the location.  Avoid super-athletic pressing teams and we could make some noise.

[connie]

Too many variables to risk on rooting for IU.

[NavinRJohnson]

Pass

[wardle2wade]

As I'm watching, I'm finding myself rooting against ii,ii.  Enough said.

[Warriors10]

A day cannot go by where we aren't talking about IU.  Get over it.

[wardle2wade]

A day cannot go by where we aren't talking about IU.  Get over it.

Lighten up, Francis. 

OSU winning at IU really does hurt MU.  It's got pretty big implications to where MU gets assigned... Mich/Dayton/Lex already each have 2 spots reserved for top4 seeds.  Most of those spots are already locked up by Mich, MSU, Ind, Louisville, Florida, Miami, and maybe Duke (in Lex).  If OSU wins, they'll get the nod over Marquette.

As much I want to visit Austin for the first time, it's very expensive and will really limit MU's following for the tournament.  MU's crowd at Cleveland and Louisville was much larger and much more vocal than San Jose, Anaheim, Boise, or San Diego.  I'm a firm believer for the NCAA's that the crowd (and a team's travel) affects the outcome with momentum and big calls.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Lighten up, Francis. 

OSU winning at IU really does hurt MU.  It's got pretty big implications to where MU gets assigned... Mich/Dayton/Lex already each have 2 spots reserved for top4 seeds.  Most of those spots are already locked up by Mich, MSU, Ind, Louisville, Florida, Miami, and maybe Duke (in Lex).  If OSU wins, they'll get the nod over Marquette.

As much I want to visit Austin for the first time, it's very expensive and will really limit MU's following for the tournament.  MU's crowd at Cleveland and Louisville was much larger and much more vocal than San Jose, Anaheim, Boise, or San Diego.  I'm a firm believer for the NCAA's that the crowd (and a team's travel) affects the outcome with momentum and big calls.

Win out, get a share of the BEast regular season title with a little Nova magic, exact revenge on Louisville in the conference tourney, have a good showing in (or win) the final, and all of this takes care of itself.  We still control our own destiny.

[wardle2wade]

Win out, get a share of the BEast regular season title with a little Nova magic, exact revenge on Louisville in the conference tourney, have a good showing in (or win) the final, and all of this takes care of itself.  We still control our own destiny.

True that, but that's banking on a lot of stuff.  As much as I want that to happen, it's a tall order.

[4everwarriors]

I feel another f*ck you handshake commin' on.

[Silkk the Shaka]

True that, but that's banking on a lot of stuff.  As much as I want that to happen, it's a tall order.

Better than rooting for IU!

And I appreciate your layered thinking on this.  I really do.

[Lennys Tap]

Who wants this turd?

[MUMountin]

I'm a firm believer for the NCAA's that the crowd (and a team's travel) affects the outcome with momentum and big calls.

Especially for a MU team that has obviously struggled to find energy outside of the BC.

[Benny B]

Consider:

OSU is 5-7 vs. RPI-50 and 7-7 vs. RPI-100 and no bad losses
MU is 7-5 vs. RPI-50 and 10-6 vs. RPI-100 and one bad loss

Road/Neutral records
OSU 4-5 / 2-0
MU 3-6 / 2-1

1) The RPI gap b/t MU (#12) and OSU (#16) is currently .0109... a pretty significant gap this time of year.  As a matter of perspective, if MU's RPI increased by .0109, it would be #7 overall in RPI.
2) OSU's last game is at home, where wins are devalued and losses inflated in the RPI formula; whereas MU is on the road where the opposite is true.
3) With a win on Sunday, they will probably have to play Illinois, Iowa or Purdue in their first conf tourney game... compared to MU who will probably play ND, Pitt or Cuse (6th seed) in their first game.
4) Keep in mind that the Big? Championship ends - literally - minutes before selections are announced.  Even if OSU runs the table, the selection committee likely has seeds determined and sites selected before the B? Championship starts... the committee will occasionally draw up two brackets and release only one depending on the outcome of a game, but most times that's only done if the championship game involves a bubble team (or bubble breaker).  In other words, the best chance OSU has to clearly overtake MU in committee - winning the B? Championship - might be too late to have an impact.

-----

In summary... OSU is going to have a very difficult time getting pod priority over MU.

[Benny B]

Why MU won't be playing in Indianapolis: Top three teams from a given conference must be placed in different regions; therefore, if Georgetown and/or Louisville end higher on the s-curve than Marquette, either would get Indy - if available - over MU.

Why MU will be playing in Indianapolis: Despite making the tourney for the eighth consecutive year, not once over that span has MU been placed in its natural region.  In fact, as a #3 seed last year, MU was placed in the furthest region (though it did get - arguably - the most favorable pod site).

Why MU will play in Detroit, Dayton or Kansas City (three closest pod sites):  Of the likely 1-4 seeds, only Kansas lists KC as its most favorable pod site.  Dayton is most favorable for three teams: IU, MU and OSU... per my previous post, MU should have an advantage in committee over OSU.  The committee might not want the highest seeds in each pod at the same site from the same conference (e.g. only one of IU, MSU, OSU and UM are placed in Detroit, and MU would be the only other team to list Detroit as most favorable.)  [Note - I am considering Detroit and Dayton a push as far as which would be most favorable for MU.]

Why MU won't play in Detroit, Dayton or Kansas City: If MU gets bumped a seed and sent to San Jose or SLC because of the dearth of west coast teams in the top four lines, or if not for that, the only other logical conclusion: because the committee hates us.

[wardle2wade]

Road/Neutral records
OSU 4-5 / 2-0
MU 3-6 / 2-1

I haven't read through your entire post yet, but MU's road record is incorrect.  MU's is 4-6 after Rutgers.  They'll likely be favored vs St Johns and it would bring MU to 5-6 on the road.

[wardle2wade]

Why MU won't be playing in Indianapolis: Top three teams from a given conference must be placed in different regions; therefore, if Georgetown and/or Louisville end higher on the s-curve than Marquette, either would get Indy - if available - over MU.

Why MU will be playing in Indianapolis: Despite making the tourney for the eighth consecutive year, not once over that span has MU been placed in its natural region.  In fact, as a #3 seed last year, MU was placed in the furthest region (though it did get - arguably - the most favorable pod site).

Why MU will play in Detroit, Dayton or Kansas City (three closest pod sites):  Of the likely 1-4 seeds, only Kansas lists KC as its most favorable pod site.  Dayton is most favorable for three teams: IU, MU and OSU... per my previous post, MU should have an advantage in committee over OSU.  The committee might not want the highest seeds in each pod at the same site from the same conference (e.g. only one of IU, MSU, OSU and UM are placed in Detroit, and MU would be the only other team to list Detroit as most favorable.)  [Note - I am considering Detroit and Dayton a push as far as which would be most favorable for MU.]

Why MU won't play in Detroit, Dayton or Kansas City: If MU gets bumped a seed and sent to San Jose or SLC because of the dearth of west coast teams in the top four lines, or if not for that, the only other logical conclusion: because the committee hates us.

Benny - Thanks for the excellent detailed post.

If Louisville gets a top two seed, I'm curious to see where they get put.  I can see them not being assigned Lexington, and instead getting Dayton or Detroit.  The hatred of Louisville from Big Blue Nation is so strong the committee may view Lex as a road site.

And yes, I firmly believe the hatred BBN is capable of dishing out is MUCH stronger than UK at the Yum last year.  Their fans were willing to pay crazy prices to see their special team and take over Louisville.  I don't see that happening with Rupp.  Also, with UK possibly not making the tourney (or being in the last four in), I'd imagine BBN holds onto most of their seats as college basketball fans just to rip into the Cardinals.

My uncle told me a great story of when Duke was assigned Lexington in 1998... UK fans filled all of Rupp for Duke's hour-long practice solely for the purpose of booing them for the 1992 loss ("The Shot").  It's just a different kind of crazy at that school.  Maybe the fact Duke got put there as a #1 seed says the committee won't give a chit about Louisville.

Btw, I do have to disagree with you on the NCAA's regional selection.  Maybe it's just me, but it seems the committee disregards the regional rules often with top teams to give them higher seeding... ie gave MSU a #1 last year, but then shipped them out to the Phoenix Region.

[32NCAAs]

Here are some rooting strategies you might want to take:

If you want Dayton: root against tOSU and perhaps WI
If you want Lexington: root against UL (and hope the committee sends FL and Mia to Austin or out west)
If you want Auburn Hills: root against MI and MSU
If you want KC: route against KSU and Ok St and perhaps even SLU

Obviously MU needs to take care of business and be at or above the 4 seed line for any of this to matter.

[Benny B]

Benny - Thanks for the excellent detailed post.

If Louisville gets a top two seed, I'm curious to see where they get put.  I can see them not being assigned Lexington, and instead getting Dayton or Detroit.  The hatred of Louisville from Big Blue Nation is so strong the committee may view Lex as a road site.

And yes, I firmly believe the hatred BBN is capable of dishing out is MUCH stronger than UK at the Yum last year.  Their fans were willing to pay crazy prices to see their special team and take over Louisville.  I don't see that happening with Rupp.  Also, with UK possibly not making the tourney (or being in the last four in), I'd imagine BBN holds onto most of their seats as college basketball fans just to rip into the Cardinals.

My uncle told me a great story of when Duke was assigned Lexington in 1998... UK fans filled all of Rupp for Duke's hour-long practice solely for the purpose of booing them for the 1992 loss ("The Shot").  It's just a different kind of crazy at that school.  Maybe the fact Duke got put there as a #1 seed says the committee won't give a chit about Louisville.

The committee will not consider Lexington a "road site" for Louisville.  Keep in mind that, generally speaking, most tickets are allocated to the participating schools and corporate sponsors... what tickets do remain for distribution to the host school and/or general public aren't "lowers" or between the baselines.  In Indianapolis in 2003, most of the tickets available to the general public prior to SS were in the upper bowl of the RCA dome; only a few lower bowl seats were made available, and most of those went to the high dollar Butler donors.

I get your point about UK not having anything better to do if they miss the tournament, but if you asked Pitino where he would like to play the first weekend, I bet he'd pick Lexington.

Btw, I do have to disagree with you on the NCAA's regional selection.  Maybe it's just me, but it seems the committee disregards the regional rules often with top teams to give them higher seeding... ie gave MSU a #1 last year, but then shipped them out to the Phoenix Region.

The committee cannot place two of the top three teams from a conference in the same regional - it is a "hard" rule.  In the case of MSU, they got the "bump & ship," but that was allowed only because neither of the other top two teams from the Big Ten were placed in the West region.  MU likely ends up as top three Big East along with GU and UL... so each one will have to be in a separate region, period.  Now, that doesn't mean that UL and GU can't both be bumped a seed and sent to DC and Austin, respectively, leaving Indy open for Marquette... it's just not the most likely scenario right now.

[wardle2wade]

The committee will not consider Lexington a "road site" for Louisville.  Keep in mind that, generally speaking, most tickets are allocated to the participating schools and corporate sponsors... what tickets do remain for distribution to the host school and/or general public aren't "lowers" or between the baselines.  In Indianapolis in 2003, most of the tickets available to the general public prior to SS were in the upper bowl of the RCA dome; only a few lower bowl seats were made available, and most of those went to the high dollar Butler donors.

Somewhat correct, the 4 schools playing during the doubleheaders get about 1100 tickets each... These are along the sidelines incuding lowers and upper.  The corporate seats are usually the ones directly on half court and sometimes club seats if the venue has them.  Not nearly as they

Everything else (about 17k seats for Rupp as it's the largest bball "arena") will be to UK season ticket holders and the public onsale.  It's a huge amount.

I feel pretty strongly about this as well as the crowd dynamics... I've sat in MU's allotment in 8 of Marquette's 9 tourney years since 2002, as well as our regionals. 

If Lou gets put in Lexington, their rd of 32 game will be a very tough environment.