Is it tough to win on the road?? Really??

[muguru]

All but one of our road losses this year have come to tournament teams, assuming nova and cincy are in, which it seems like they are.

I'm not so sure about Cincy. We'll know more about them today. To me they are walking in dangerous territory right now. They are currently 7-7 in conference and starting today they finish with...@ND, UCONN, @UL, and S. Florida. I could easily see them losing 3 of those. If they do...no way are they getting in with a 8-10 BE record. I'm not so sure they'll get in @ 9-9(a split in their remaining 4). They may need to win 3 of the last 4 to be guaranteed a spot. Today is monumental for Cincy IMO. Their RPI is 50 right now, and their SOS is 34. Once again, Cincy built a "reputation" on what they did in the non conference. They are only 3-6 vs the Top 50, and 12-0 against teams 101+. Their Non conference SOS according to Pomeroy is 312.

[The Equalizer]

That wasn't his original point.  His original point was that it really isn't that hard to win on the road, used one year's worth of evidence to back it up, and concluded that MU is a poor road team because of it.  All club cheezes did is expand the year's in question to refute his conclusion.

I read it as this year's team, but even if we assume you're right, cheezes post made just an egregious error.

His refuting stat should have been to compare other top-rated RPI teams over five years--not all Big East teams over five years.

I don't know where MU's road record this year would fall compared to all other top RPI teams using 5 years of data--but I do know its not valid to include the Big East bottom feeders in the comparision.

[Pakuni]

I don't know where MU's road record this year would fall compared to all other top RPI teams using 5 years of data--but I do know its not valid to include the Big East bottom feeders in the comparision.

MU has been far from a "top RPI team" over each of the past five years, though.
2013 (to date) - 17th
2012 - 9th
2011 - 50th
2010 - 55th
2009 - 30th

[ATL MU Warrior]

Things I can conclude after reading this thread:

1) muguru has never ever played basketball at any level beyond grade school.  If he had he would know better.

2) MU must not be one of the top 5 or 10 teams in the land as we don't win on the road as often as those teams do. 

3) I think everyone on this board knows that MU is not one of the top 5-10 teams in the land so I am not sure why muguru finds #2 surprising.

[muguru]

Things I can conclude after reading this thread:

1) muguru has never ever played basketball at any level beyond grade school.  If he had he would know better.

2) MU must not be one of the top 5 or 10 teams in the land as we don't win on the road as often as those teams do. 

3) I think everyone on this board knows that MU is not one of the top 5-10 teams in the land so I am not sure why muguru finds #2 surprising.

1. Played ball all through HS thanks.
2. They are not, but isn't the goal to become one of them consistently??
3. I don't find it surprising, but it's not surprising MU is not among the elite because of it. Again, isn't the goal to become "Elite". Or to at least win a conference Championship once in awhile?? They will likely have several of them in the B7, but that ain't the same as winning the BE reg season title.

[Pakuni]

I hear/see fans proclaim this all the time, that it's tough to win on the road. There's nothing that gets my ire up more than that. Why?? Basketball is basketball...the game is the same no matter where you play it. You pass, dribble and shoot whether that's in Milwaukee at the Bradley Center or at the Pavilion in Philadelphia.

Wall Street Journal says you're wrong:

"The road winning percentage in major men's college basketball is .340 -- meaning the road team wins roughly one out of every three games.

Somewhere on Earth there may be a sport in which this figure is lower. But it isn't the NBA, NHL, American or Australian football, English or Argentine soccer, Major League Baseball, Japanese baseball, Dominican winter baseball, or any of two dozen other sports leagues.

There is nothing tougher in team sports than what 42 schools in NCAA's Division I will try, mostly in vain, to do tonight: Put a dozen skinny kids into an opponent's gym and beat them at basketball."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123612655303924107.html

[tower912]

The original post compared Marquette's road record to this year's other high/RPI potential NCAA teams.  In other words, teams similar to us.

Someone attempted to refute it by posting a 5-year comparision among Big East teams--changing both the timeframe (one year vs five) and the nature of the teams being comparable (bringing in BE bottom feeders--teams nothing at all like us)

Honestly, does a better five-year road record than DePaul, Rutgers, USF, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall change anything about muguru's original point about MU compared to this year's highly rated teams?

The two aren't even REMOTELY comparable.   Yet you cheer him on?

Seriously?   You are being critical of someone else changing the parameters of an argument?    Are you being ironic?

[The Equalizer]

MU has been far from a "top RPI team" over each of the past five years, though.
2013 (to date) - 17th
2012 - 9th
2011 - 50th
2010 - 55th
2009 - 30th

So using your five years of data, despite having our 2nd best RPI in the past five years, we have our worst road record over that stretch.

Thats on top of the data that muguru provided that shows that of the top 24 RPI teams this year, our road record is 2nd worst. 

But let's include some more data.  Lets compare to the road-record of every top 30 RPI Big East over the last five years:

Team	RPI Rank	Record	W/P
2009 UConn	5	10-1	0.909
2010 WVU	4	9-1	0.9
2010 Syracuse	6	9-1	0.9
2012 Syracuse	2	9-1	0.9
2009 UL	7	8-1	0.889
2011 Pitt	12	7-2	0.778
2009 Villanova	8	9-3	0.75
2009 Pitt	2	7-3	0.7
2011 Syracuse	20	7-3	0.7
2010 Villanova	16	7-4	0.636
2011 Georgetown	15	8-5	0.615
2009 WVU	22	7-5	0.583
2010 Pitt	18	5-4	0.555
2009 Marquette	30	6-5	0.545
2009 Syracuse	12	6-5	0.545
2010 Georgetown	14	6-5	0.545
2012 MU	9	6-5	0.545
2012 UL	10	6-5	0.545
2012 Georgetown	12	6-5	0.545
2011 ND	10	5-5	0.5
2011 WVU	21	5-6	0.454
2013 Marquette (+2 more road wins)	17	5-6	0.454
2011 UL	17	4-6	0.4
2011 St. Johns	28	5-8	0.384
2011 UConn	6	4-7	0.363
2013 Marquette (+1 more road win)	17	4-7	0.363
2013 Marquette	17	3-6	0.333

                              

So not only are is our record currently worst of any top-30 BE team, it can't get better than #22 of 25 if we win 2 more games, and this year will still be tied for worst if we win only one of our two remaining road games.

muguru was right--we are having a poor road record this year, and the "everyone struggles on the road" excuse doesn't explain it. 

I'm sorry if that offends your sensibilities.  But he certainly seems to be right.

[Aughnanure]

You might want to compare home and road records, if your hypothesis is
that winning road games isn't any more or less difficult than home games.

All of these teams have SIGNIFICANTLY better win
%ages with their home schedules.  If winning on the road was so easy, or
any different, like you claim, their home records would not be as great, right?

If winning on the road is so easy, why are these teams' home records so
gaudy?  Only 1 team with more than 2 losses, and 4 undefeated teams.

Also, what are the RPIs, SOSs of the road games that these teams
have played, relative to the home games?  I'll bet that the road games
feature much more difficult opponents than the cupcake-palooza this list
played at home earlier in the season.

I think debunking or bunking the "playing on the road is tough" axiom is
going to take a bit more analysis than just showing us the top 30ish RPI
teams road records.
 

This +100. The biggest competitive problem in college basketball is the utterly ridiculous disparity between home and road games. It's a problem, and it's out of control. How can a solid but unspectacular basketball program like Wisconsin for instance be only around .500 (or less) on the road but nearly unbeatable at home?

Something is wrong. We love to rave and congratulate programs for their "home court advantage" but there's something sick about KU winning 63 straight games at home. SIXTY freaking THREE! Bill Self is literally 159-8 at home. Not even double digit losses in nearly a decade!

It's getting stupid, and the more people want to ignore the terrible inconsistencies from the refs the longer we will have this problem. The disparity between how a game is called depending on where its being played is an issue that should be looked at very seriously.

[Pakuni]

muguru was right--we are having a poor road record this year, and the "everyone struggles on the road" excuse doesn't explain it. 

I'm sorry if that offends your sensibilities.  But he certainly seems to be right.

And in shocking news, Equalizer changes the parameters of the debate (again).
Had muguru simply wrote "MU is having a poor road record this year," as you claim he does, the only criticism he'd get is for his butchering of the English language.
But that's not at all what he wrote. You're shifting the argument because you know what he initially wrote is incorrect.
Instead, he wrote nearly 500 words attempting to disprove the conventional wisdom that winning on the road is difficult. In fact, his concluding paragraph states "but to say 'it's hard to win on the road' I do not and never will believe is an accurate statement."

Of course, as the WSJ story linked above shows, it is a completely accurate statement. It's accurate for every major sport, and it's especially accurate for college basketball.

[muguru]

And in shocking news, Equalizer changes the parameters of the debate (again).
Had muguru simply wrote "MU is having a poor road record this year," as you claim he does, the only criticism he'd get is for his butchering of the English language.
But that's not at all what he wrote. You're shifting the argument because you know what he initially wrote is incorrect.
Instead, he wrote nearly 500 words attempting to disprove the conventional wisdom that winning on the road is difficult. In fact, his concluding paragraph states "but to say 'it's hard to win on the road' I do not and never will believe is an accurate statement."

Of course, as the WSJ story linked above shows, it is a completely accurate statement. It's accurate for every major sport, and it's especially accurate for college basketball.

As my argument proved however, is it isn't terribly difficult for the "elite" teams to win on the road, or even some not so elite. But yet, it's been extremely difficult for MU to win on the road this year. I have watched a lot of college hoops this year(and every year), and I can honestly say that I have seen no other team that plays so completely different on the road as they do at home, as does MU. Yes, every team has difficulties on the road at times, but, for lack of a better term, no team I have seen this year looks as clueless on the road as MU does. It's hard to explain. If they were just a bad basketball team, then they should do the same things at home(at least at times) as they do on the road, but they don't. It's like two completely different teams. It's baffling. It's a mental toughness thing. AS Junior said in the JS article "we were thinking too much".

[The Equalizer]

And in shocking news, Equalizer changes the parameters of the debate (again).
Had muguru simply wrote "MU is having a poor road record this year," as you claim he does, the only criticism he'd get is for his butchering of the English language.
But that's not at all what he wrote. You're shifting the argument because you know what he initially wrote is incorrect.
Instead, he wrote nearly 500 words attempting to disprove the conventional wisdom that winning on the road is difficult. In fact, his concluding paragraph states "but to say 'it's hard to win on the road' I do not and never will believe is an accurate statement."

Of course, as the WSJ story linked above shows, it is a completely accurate statement. It's accurate for every major sport, and it's especially accurate for college basketball.

You and I both read the same 500 words.  *I* think he's talking about just the top-rated teams.  *YOU* think he's talking about all 345 D1 teams.

You're right--he didn't explicity state he was comparing our road record to just the top-ranked teams.
He also didn't say he was comparing to all 345 D1 teams. 

Absent a clear statement one way or the other, I used the context of the post to conclude he was comparing us to highly ranked teams. 

I'd LOOOOVE to know what clues you devined from his post that makes you so certain that he's talking about road wins for all 345 D1 teams in general. 


For my part, I'll share why I think the way I do: 
--He specifically limited his comparision to the 10 teams ahead and 10 teams behind us in the RPI
--He stated that he specifically excluded mid-majors, and explained why.
--He stated that if someone claim that if someone pointed out that this only this included "elite" teams, he said it "makes my point".
--He commented that "if MU ever wants to become elite, and become one of them, they need to be better on the road."

So that's why I think he's talking about a comparsion about top rated teams.

So how about it--can you explain why (absent anything in his post that says so) you assumed he's talking about all 345 D1 teams?

[Pakuni]

You and I both read the same 500 words.  *I* think he's talking about just the top-rated teams.  *YOU* think he's talking about all 345 D1 teams.

You're right--he didn't explicity state he was comparing our road record to just the top-ranked teams.
He also didn't say he was comparing to all 345 D1 teams. 

Absent a clear statement one way or the other, I used the context of the post to conclude he was comparing us to highly ranked teams. 

I'd LOOOOVE to know what clues you devined from his post that makes you so certain that he's talking about road wins for all 345 D1 teams in general. 


For my part, I'll share why I think the way I do: 
--He specifically limited his comparision to the 10 teams ahead and 10 teams behind us in the RPI
--He stated that he specifically excluded mid-majors, and explained why.
--He stated that if someone claim that if someone pointed out that this only this included "elite" teams, he said it "makes my point".
--He commented that "if MU ever wants to become elite, and become one of them, they need to be better on the road."

So that's why I think he's talking about a comparsion about top rated teams.

So how about it--can you explain why (absent anything in his post that says so) you assumed he's talking about all 345 D1 teams?

Really?

[Les Nessman]

I am still trying to figure out what the point of the original post is. Guru, even if you somehow prove that it is really easy to win on the road, what difference does it make? We are still 3-6 on the road. Guru, you don't offer any sort of solution, you just keep beating the same dead horses that are "we aren't elite" (no kidding, no one thinks we are), "we need better players" (any team who has ever lost a game in team sports could make this claim, so again who cares), and now "we're bad on the road" (it's a reality this season, you can't change it).

I would love to hear some rational and realistic insight as to how you think we could reach your goals of being elite, getting better players, and being good on the road. Until you do that, all you seem to be doing is having a tantrum. And it's awkward for everyone involved.

[lab_warrior]

You and I both read the same 500 words.  *I* think he's talking about just the top-rated teams.  *YOU* think he's talking about all 345 D1 teams.

Who gives a s*** whether he was talking about the RPI top 30
teams, or all 350 D1 teams?!  Or, for that matter, whether we use
a year of data, or 5 years?  Either data set, the road records
are significantly worse than the home records.  You can't cherry
pick the top 30 teams, from this year (to date) and use that to "prove"
some broad sweeping statement.   

And, as Pak posted in that WSJ article, it's not just college basketball,
IT IS EVERY SPORT PLAYED ON THE EARTH, where home > road. 

Trust me, I LOOOOVE taking dumps all over "conventional wisdom",
mostly, because conventional wisdom is a euphemism for "cliched
horses***".  But the argument that winning on the road is just as
easy as winning at home is a valid one. 

Also, I reiterate, I'd love to see the comparison of MU's quality of road
opponents, vs. Duke's, or MSU's, or IU's, or Gonzaga's, or everyone elses.
Not everyone's road opponents are equal. 

[The Equalizer]

Really?

Yes, really. 

What specficially did you read in the post that gave you the impression that this was a general comment about all road games for all D1 teams in general.

I told you why I thought it was about MU compared to other top teams.  I'd appreciate if you reciprocated, given you're using it as a basis to attack me.

[The Equalizer]

Who gives a s*** whether he was talking about the RPI top 30
teams, or all 350 D1 teams?!  Or, for that matter, whether we use
a year of data, or 5 years?  Either data set, the road records
are significantly worse than the home records.  You can't cherry
pick the top 30 teams, from this year (to date) and use that to "prove"
some broad sweeping statement.   

And, as Pak posted in that WSJ article, it's not just college basketball,
IT IS EVERY SPORT PLAYED ON THE EARTH, where home > road. 

Trust me, I LOOOOVE taking dumps all over "conventional wisdom",
mostly, because conventional wisdom is a euphemism for "cliched
horses***".  But the argument that winning on the road is just as
easy as winning at home is a valid one. 

Also, I reiterate, I'd love to see the comparison of MU's quality of road
opponents, vs. Duke's, or MSU's, or IU's, or Gonzaga's, or everyone elses.
Not everyone's road opponents are equal. 

Let me simplify the orginal post for you:

Other good teams:
Road Record < Home Record

MU:
Road Record <<< Home Record.

You can't explain the difference between < and <<< by saying "everyone is worse on the road." 

[Pakuni]

Yes, really. 

What specficially did you read in the post that gave you the impression that this was a general comment about all road games for all D1 teams in general.

I told you why I thought it was about MU compared to other top teams.  I'd appreciate if you reciprocated, given you're using it as a basis to attack me.

I've engaged in a lot of stupid debates on this board. A lot.
But even I won't sink to your level of pedantic nonsense here.

[jesmu84]

Indiana was AWFUL on the road last year. Much improved this year. Some teams/players just play much better at home. Am I okay with MU playing poorly on the road? No. But is there really a reason to harp on the point this much? Can't we just accept that's the identity of the team this season? And to further state/imply that MU doesn't want to be an elite program is absolutely asinine.

[muguru]

Indiana was AWFUL on the road last year. Much improved this year. Some teams/players just play much better at home. Am I okay with MU playing poorly on the road? No. But is there really a reason to harp on the point this much? Can't we just accept that's the identity of the team this season? And to further state/imply that MU doesn't want to be an elite program is absolutely asinine.

I'm not saying they don't strive to be, I'm sure they do, but as my study shows, truly elite teams win on the road, and they beat other good teams on the road. They don't just beat Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence etc. I mean when you really think about it, when is the last time MU has ever had a "shock the world" type road win??  Like TCU vs Kansas, or Wake vs. Miami?? I don't recall any. From most of what i remember is that MU beats bad teams on the road, and when they play a decent team or a good team, they will usually lose. That's not what Elite programs do. They will lose some road games, but they will also have BIG road wins as well. When is the last time MU beat a Syracuse, or a Louisville for example, on the road?? Heck, go back to last year, they had Georgetown down by 17 points @ Georgetown and went on to lose. Those things just don't happen to "normal teams" on the road. Or what about the @ UL game, where they blew a what 8 point lead in the last minute or so?? WTF is MU's problem with winning on the road?? It HAS to be mental toughness. There is no other explanation.

[Les Nessman]

Your "study"? This is comical now.

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

I'm not saying they don't strive to be, I'm sure they do, but as my study shows, truly elite teams win on the road, and they beat other good teams on the road. They don't just beat Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence etc. I mean when you really think about it, when is the last time MU has ever had a "shock the world" type road win??  Like TCU vs Kansas, or Wake vs. Miami?? I don't recall any. From most of what i remember is that MU beats bad teams on the road, and when they play a decent team or a good team, they will usually lose. That's not what Elite programs do. They will lose some road games, but they will also have BIG road wins as well. When is the last time MU beat a Syracuse, or a Louisville for example, on the road?? Heck, go back to last year, they had Georgetown down by 17 points @ Georgetown and went on to lose. Those things just don't happen to "normal teams" on the road. Or what about the @ UL game, where they blew a what 8 point lead in the last minute or so?? WTF is MU's problem with winning on the road?? It HAS to be mental toughness. There is no other explanation.

Last year:  @Wisconsin
Year before: @UConn
Year before that: @UConn

[jesmu84]

I'm not saying they don't strive to be, I'm sure they do, but as my study shows, truly elite teams win on the road, and they beat other good teams on the road. They don't just beat Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence etc. I mean when you really think about it, when is the last time MU has ever had a "shock the world" type road win??  Like TCU vs Kansas, or Wake vs. Miami?? I don't recall any. From most of what i remember is that MU beats bad teams on the road, and when they play a decent team or a good team, they will usually lose. That's not what Elite programs do. They will lose some road games, but they will also have BIG road wins as well. When is the last time MU beat a Syracuse, or a Louisville for example, on the road?? Heck, go back to last year, they had Georgetown down by 17 points @ Georgetown and went on to lose. Those things just don't happen to "normal teams" on the road. Or what about the @ UL game, where they blew a what 8 point lead in the last minute or so?? WTF is MU's problem with winning on the road?? It HAS to be mental toughness. There is no other explanation.

MSU (as pointed out by PTM in another thread) has racked up conference road wins against RPI 90, 200, 24, 129 and 97 this year. No "shock the world" wins there. I'd also argue that "shock the world" wins come when 2 teams are so far apart in talent/rankings. TCU/Kansas and Wake/Miami are not the same as MU playing Louisville or Syracuse or Georgetown. Beating any of those 3 would not be "shock the world" wins because we're much more comparable programs.

Which top 10/"elite" team has had a "shock the world" win this season?

Also, how do you feel about neutral court? I'd say beating Cuse in the NCAA tourney was pretty "shock the world"

[muguru]

Last year:  @Wisconsin
Year before: @UConn
Year before that: @UConn

Not "shock the world" type road wins IMO, all wins I actually expected them to get. Specifically @ Madison last year.

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

Not "shock the world" type road wins IMO, all wins I actually expected them to get. Specifically @ Madison last year.

You are setting a standard that is impossible for them to meet then.  Because for them to be "shock the world" type wins in your eyes, MU has to be pretty bad.  (As your examples show...)  And when they have a quality road win, you simply say "I expected them to win."

I guess if a win against the eventual national champion isn't good enough, then I simply don't know what is.