Vander Blue

[keefe]

Plus Jae played alongside Butler, which means he's going to have split rebounds, points, etc.  Vander doesn't have anyone playing the same level with him so he has more opportunities.  Blue is playing 32.7 minutes per game to Jae's 27.6...you can get a lot done in 5 extra minutes. 

That's a bit obtuse. I wouldn't say considerably better but I would argue better. A separate question is Who is more valuable to the team and that is when you can factor in Butler. To that I would say VB is far more valuable to his team.

[JD]

Scenario.


MU makes the Elite 8 this year, but Van declares and is drafted.

Do you take it, or want him to return next year? (Erasing the Elite 8 run)

For me this is tough, i think we have a higher ceiling next year if he returns with De'De'.... I'm saying stay.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Interesting that you guys are debating Vander vs. DJO's junior year.  According to KenPom, the most similar statistical player to Blue's junior year in recent college basketball history is drumroll please..... DJO's junior season.  DJO's ORTG = 106.8, Blue's currently = 106.1.  And to bring it all back around to missed recruiting opportunities, the third most similar is Michael Snaer's junior year.

Yup, and DJO according to KenPom was BETTER his junior year than Vander.  DJO, currently, not playing in the association either.  Undersized, inconsistent shot, etc.  Yes, it sounds all too familiar.  It took a great DJO senior season to get drafted and get his cup of coffee.  Vander, if he doesn't play next year, won't have that Senior season to make that impression.  Hard to see him getting drafted based on this year's performance...a good season, not a great season and plenty of players with a safer pedigree to pick than him.  That's the point I think many of us are making...he certainly isn't CONSIDERABLY better than DJO (or Jae) their junior years or whatever other adjectives are being used.  It just isn't there.

[keefe]

If 13lue goes, I hope it's a hyperinformed decision.

We can pull out the Chones story and try to apply it to today's world, but it doesn't work. There were two "premier" leagues at the time: NBA and ABA. Now it's just the NBA and at a distant 1,000,000th, the NBADL.

If he's not drafted, he's going to Europe where the money is. But without the guaranteed contracts the NBA offers, it's a riskier proposition.
At worse, he's playing in the NBADL wondering what a senior campaign would have looked like.

Not sure I would say the ABA was premiere. I would say that International leagues have replaced the ABA in terms of offering a second option for players.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's a bit obtuse. I wouldn't say considerably better but I would argue better. A separate question is Who is more valuable to the team and that is when you can factor in Butler. To that I would say VB is far more valuable to his team.

Agree, Blue is more valuable to this team because this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  To which I opined if you were to put the junior version of Jae on this year's team, he would be equally valuable if not more so.  That's part of the problem of comparing different teams with players from different teams.

Big East was better two years ago....tougher to get the stats back then
This year's team devoid of talent...Blue is going to shine
More talent on team 2 years ago that had to be shared with other players...diminishes some of the stats of those players

Tough to make those comparisons.  I'm thankful for the Ken Pom statistical comparison, as flawed as that is also.

[Lennys Tap]

Agree, Blue is more valuable to this team because this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  To which I opined if you were to put the junior version of Jae on this year's team, he would be equally valuable if not more so.  That's part of the problem of comparing different teams with players from different teams.

Big East was better two years ago....tougher to get the stats back then
This year's team devoid of talent...Blue is going to shine
More talent on team 2 years ago that had to be shared with other players...diminishes some of the stats of those players

Tough to make those comparisons.  I'm thankful for the Ken Pom statistical comparison, as flawed as that is also.

Well, if college basketball has disintegrated to the point that a team devoid of talent is in the top 20 and tied for first place in the Big East I guess a #1 seed or a national championship won't mean much this year.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Agree, Blue is more valuable to this team because this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  To which I opined if you were to put the junior version of Jae on this year's team, he would be equally valuable if not more so.  That's part of the problem of comparing different teams with players from different teams.

Big East was better two years ago....tougher to get the stats back then
This year's team devoid of talent...Blue is going to shine
More talent on team 2 years ago that had to be shared with other players...diminishes some of the stats of those players

Tough to make those comparisons.  I'm thankful for the Ken Pom statistical comparison, as flawed as that is also.

Not that I disagree with you necessarily, but that entire season you were saying that we sucked and that Buzz CLEARLY had the program trending in the wrong direction, and that the league wasn't really all that tough, and that 9-9 was UNACCEPTABLE.  Now you want to pump up the league that year to discount Blue.  Just love watching you twist things.

And I'm really curious where this narrative came from that this year's team is utterly devoid of talent (not just from you).  Blue, Cadougan, JWilson, Anderson, and Taylor were all RSCI top 100 players coming out of high school.  Gardner is one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation.  Mayo is a nice scorer.  Everyone was at least a three star except Otule.  We're tied for 1st in the BEast 2/3 the way through the season.  Do we lack outside shooting?  Yes, that is a weakness.  But we're not utterly devoid of talent - not even close.  And that talent seems to be coming together at the right time.  College hoops is wide open this year, and we have the talent to make a run.

[keefe]

Another MU84

You win. Got me twice today on the ex pats tax issue and VB going pro.

Expat Tax issues. Both PepsiCo and GE used the same firm to manage that stuff for expats so I was able to use the same guy for 12 years. I called him a couple weeks ago and told him I spent most of last year working off shore and needed tax advice. My off shore income was zero since it was all volunteer work but I incurred tens of thousands of dollars worth of expense related to that volunteer work. He said that under the US Tax Code a lot of personal expenses from volunteer work off shore can reduce my overall tax burden. I called really just to say hi and ended up saving a few bucks. The best part is he said he would do it pro bono since my stuff was charity work. You've been over there a while so you likely have solid advice but if you need a great guy I would recommend Anthony Tong with PWC.

[Goose]

Keefe

Thanks for the lead. Glad to hear at least one ex pat was not screwed by the US government last year.

[keefe]

Keefe

Thanks for the lead. Glad to hear at least one ex pat was not screwed by the US government last year.

Yea, I had to have off shore income of zero in order to not get screwed by Uncle Sugar. I loved the guys who worked without a W2. When the off shore exclusion was $75K they always seemed to make between $65-70K. I guess the exclusion is around $97K now?

Where are in China are you based?

[Goose]

Office in Guangzhou. $97k is the number now I think.

[MU82]

Well, we will agree to disagree?  Statistically I think it's a wash if not benefit to Jae and DJO.  Tougher league back then, but they still had slightly better stats and had better players on the team they had to share the ball with.  It's tough to break through when you have DJO and Butler also on the team, but he did.  When you say "no comparison" that makes me scratch my head.  If you look statistically, not only is there a comparison but one can easily argue VB loses that argument...so I don't get where "no comparison" comes from, ESPECIALLY when you look at how much better the Big East was that season and what VB's role is on this team vs those guys roles on that team.

Going into his senior season, Crowder and DJO were both preseason All Big East picks so I don't think I would agree that people didn't think they were for real until midseason.  People knew they were pretty good before the season even started.  Blue will be a preseason all Big East player going into his senior season as well, if he sticks around.

If Blue leaves, he leaves.  I wish him the best.  Hopefully he makes it.  To me, he is undersized, hasn't proven he can play the point, has a very inconsistent outside shot.  Another year would do him well.

DJO was preseason All-Big East and absolutely considered Marquette's best player.

Jae was honorable mention choice.

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-men/hc-big-east-preseason-players,0,3642946.story

So while Jae didn't exactly sneak up on people his senior year, there were few if any out there who expected him to be PoY.

[Goose]

Jae was a major surprise to many. I do not recall his expectations going into last year matching DJO but could be wrong.

[Pakuni]

Here are my two cents in this conversation.

IF Blue wants to go pro, he should do this after his junior year. The draft class of this year is the worst in decades; it's absolutely atrocious. He might sneak in as a middle 2nd rounder or later or something.

His senior year draft class is STACKED beyond belief. Wiggins, Harrison twins, that whole Kentucky team in general, maybe Jabari Parker. If he wants to play in the Association, he should declare after this year.

With that said, I do not think he will declare. He will come back for his senior year and win the national championship 
His skills need a lot of work and we'll see how he plays in this final part of the season and the NCAA's. I think how he plays in March is key for his decision.

Except the relative strength/weakness of the draft class really only matters if VB can work his way into the first round and get a guaranteed deal.
Otherwise, there's pretty much no advantage between being a second-round pick and being a free agent. Being a second-round pick helps a bit in that a GM isn't eager to cut a guy he just drafted, but being a free agent gives you the chance to choose your situation (and go where you have the best opportunity) rather than have it chosen for you.

And, in regards to all that, Vander doesn't appear to be on the radar as a first-round pick right now. Of course, I'm not sure JFB as at this time his senior year either, so there's still time. But unless he's a lock in the first, he's better off coming back to MU and working on his ball skills.

[keefe]

Well, if college basketball has disintegrated to the point that a team devoid of talent is in the top 20 and tied for first place in the Big East I guess a #1 seed or a national championship won't mean much this year.

What means more: screwing the Prom Queen at 17 or tapping her on a mattress on the floor of her trailer at 45 after 6 kids, 4 bad marriages, and years of drinking cheap rye whiskey?

[Sunbelt15]

Blue should test the waters and declare for the draft like Ty Lawson did his junior year at UNC. As long as he doesn't sign with an agent, he'll have the option of coming back and gain experience of the rookie camp. He'll also get insight of draft possibility.

[Tugg Speedman]

Blue should test the waters and declare for the draft like Ty Lawson did his junior year at UNC. As long as he doesn't sign with an agent, he'll have the option of coming back and gain experience of the rookie camp. He'll also get insight of draft possibility.

+1  Nothing wrong with this.  In fact, Jamil Wilson should consider the same.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Here are my two cents in this conversation.

IF Blue wants to go pro, he should do this after his junior year. The draft class of this year is the worst in decades; it's absolutely atrocious. He might sneak in as a middle 2nd rounder or later or something.

His senior year draft class is STACKED beyond belief. Wiggins, Harrison twins, that whole Kentucky team in general, maybe Jabari Parker. If he wants to play in the Association, he should declare after this year.

If the draft is the worst in decades (no idea if this is true), then won't more juniors declare than normal?  Heck, you might have some sophomores declare more than normal.  Since VB seems to have problem even ranking among the top 50 juniors right now, that leads me to believe if the market is flooded with more juniors and sophomores than normal to take advantage of the weak draft it will hurt him just the same. 

[keefe]

Office in Guangzhou. $97k is the number now I think.

Man I remember when Shenzhen was duck farms and Guangzhou was still Canton. Back then nobody lived in Guangzhou so you would take the KCR or the Hydrofoil up the Pearl Estuary. I remember going into the head on the KCR and the sh1tter was a squatter hole in the floor without a reservoir. Most people had bad aim points so the floor was a filthy mess but if you were accurate your 'stuff' fell straight onto the tracks! It was then that I vowed to always take the hydrofoil.

I remember one of my first trips to Guangzhou. I had learned Mandarin so I laid it on the waitress at Bei Yuan. She immediately let me know in a torrent of Cantonese that she didn't care for Putonghua! I'm sure you know about it but Bei Yuan serves up the best damn Dim Sum outside of Hong Kong. And you can eat like a Tai Pan for less than $10. Incredible.  

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'm a big Vander fan, and I do think he has a shot to play in the league someday.

With this said, his current performance/skill set isn't there yet.

He has the physical tools (size, speed, agility, quickness), but he still lacks the polish a sub 6'9" player needs to get drafted.

Big guys and freaky athletes get drafted on potential. Not many 6'3" guys drafted on potential. They usually have to have their game well sorted.

Vander is light years ahead of last year, but still needs to make another jump in the off season to really have a shot at the NBA. Shooting would still be an area for improvement.

He is a very good college player right now, and if he has another good off season, he could be 1st team all Big East next year and be in the conversation for conference POY.

[honkytonk]

If the draft is the worst in decades (no idea if this is true), then won't more juniors declare than normal?  Heck, you might have some sophomores declare more than normal.  Since VB seems to have problem even ranking among the top 50 juniors right now, that leads me to believe if the market is flooded with more juniors and sophomores than normal to take advantage of the weak draft it will hurt him just the same. 

It will be very interesting to see who goes and who stays. All of these players will be watching each other to see what they do. Im guessing there will be a lot of last minute agent signings.

The college basketball talent level wont be any better next year. The very top few players will prob be better compared to this year but they dont do anything for the average team (and half of them are going to UK anyways).

[keefe]

I have always been a Vander Blue fan and I am thrilled with his leading this year's team. But I believe that if he leaves early he better have his passport ready.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Not to nitpick, but outside of Goose and his source, does anybody actually think Vander is going?

This reminds me when "everybody" thought Buzz was leaving, when it reality there were about 3 people who thought that and then everybody commented on all of the variables.

Vander has some nice physical attributes, but I can't remember the last SG drafted who shot 30% from the college 3pt line.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not that I disagree with you necessarily, but that entire season you were saying that we sucked and that Buzz CLEARLY had the program trending in the wrong direction, and that the league wasn't really all that tough, and that 9-9 was UNACCEPTABLE.  Now you want to pump up the league that year to discount Blue.  Just love watching you twist things.

And I'm really curious where this narrative came from that this year's team is utterly devoid of talent (not just from you).  Blue, Cadougan, JWilson, Anderson, and Taylor were all RSCI top 100 players coming out of high school.  Gardner is one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation.  Mayo is a nice scorer.  Everyone was at least a three star except Otule.  We're tied for 1st in the BEast 2/3 the way through the season.  Do we lack outside shooting?  Yes, that is a weakness.  But we're not utterly devoid of talent - not even close.  And that talent seems to be coming together at the right time.  College hoops is wide open this year, and we have the talent to make a run.

Nope....use that little search engine link up top there and go back and read what I actually said that year.  I'm not going to let you get away with false claims.  Go ahead...or just issue your apology now.

I think 4ever stated it pretty well the other day on talent.  We're slow, outside of Vander.  We don't shoot well.  We generally don't have a lot of solid athletes like we did the last few years.  As such, Vander stands out even more.  While a few years ago, with Butler, Crowder, DJO, etc, it was much harder to stand out for Jae or anyone else because everyone was quick, everyone was athletic.  That's one of the reasons the year we had that year was disappointing, but I didn't say we sucked the entire season nor did I say he had the program trending in the wrong direction.  I just love watching you make up crap or taking one statement I make and extrapolating that to ALL SEASON LONG YOU SAID.....

[ChicosBailBonds]

DJO was preseason All-Big East and absolutely considered Marquette's best player.

Jae was honorable mention choice.

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-men/hc-big-east-preseason-players,0,3642946.story

So while Jae didn't exactly sneak up on people his senior year, there were few if any out there who expected him to be PoY.

Correct, him becoming POY was a surprise.  But he was preseason all Big East team and expected to be one of the better players on the team and in the league...which of course he was.