1/22 Bracketology

[drewm88]

MU a 7 seed playing Colorado State in Dayton. Winner plays...Florida. I'll pass.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[brewcity77]

So would the committee, most likely. They usually try to avoid having teams potentially play another team in the first weekend that they already played in the regular season.

Not always, but generally.

[LloydMooresLegs]

Though it would be fun to hang with all of our new friends from Dayton.   

[Benny B]

So would the committee, most likely. They usually try to avoid having teams potentially play another team in the first weekend that they already played in the regular season.

Not always, but generally.

Second round (Round of 64) re-matches are prohibited.  Third round (Round of 32) re-matches are allowed, but only to preserve other selection rules/guidelines.

In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round... it couldn't just match the two up for the sake of convenience.  Lunardi does a decent job of forecasting the teams that will be in the tournament, but he's not so great with locations/matchups.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Florida will end up a 1 seed.  The SEC is pretty much garbage this year.  Would not be shocked at all to see them enter the tournament on a 20+ game winning streak while other 1 seed contenders will likely drop at least a couple tough conference games between now and then.

[RushmoreAcademy]

In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round.

Nothing about that first match up should compel them to schedule another match up.

[MarquetteDano]

Nothing about that first match up should compel them to schedule another match up.

LOL.  Ouch.  True.  But ouch.   

[brewcity77]

Florida will end up a 1 seed.  The SEC is pretty much garbage this year.  Would not be shocked at all to see them enter the tournament on a 20+ game winning streak while other 1 seed contenders will likely drop at least a couple tough conference games between now and then.

They definitely should be a 1-seed. I think they should handle Ole Miss at home and Missouri on the road. The toughest game will probably be the season finale at Kentucky. While the Wildcats have underwhelmed, they are so young that you could see a big jump between now and March 9.

Looking ahead, Florida seems like the most likely lock. They have only 2 games according to kenpom with less than a 91% chance to win (@ Missouri 85, @ Kentucky 78). Duke and Kansas also seem like pretty solid bets. I think the last #1 seed will either go to a Big East or Big Ten team that wins both the conference and conference tourney. If no one does that, I think Syracuse/Louisville have the edge on any Big Ten team...there's just too many top teams in that league.

[Benny B]

I think the last #1 seed will either go to a Big East or Big Ten team that wins both the conference and conference tourney. If no one does that, I think Syracuse/Louisville have the edge on any Big Ten team...there's just too many top teams in that league.

I'll go one step further... there will be more teams from the future C7 (including the invite 3 or 5) in the Sweet Sixteen than from the Big Ten.


Of course, I'm going to eat my words because Georgetown will probably screw it up by losing to an 11 seed.

[jsglow]

I agree that FLA is headed to a #1.  But the simple tweak I'd make is to slide Tommy's team in as the #2 at Dayton.  Notice the other side with Butler on the headline bill as well.  That's going to be one helluva good time if it materializes.  See you boys there.

[boyonthedock]

I think Indiana is a 3 seed, tops. Lotta losses left on the ledger for them in the big ten.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think Indiana is a 3 seed, tops. Lotta losses left on the ledger for them in the big ten.

Unless the train derails, it's hard to imagine IU dropping below a 2-seed. IU has 7 more games with teams currently ranked in the top 15. Even if they go 2-5 in those games, that's still 2 quality wins and 5 "quality losses" (for lack of a better term). Not to mention, a team that was the preseason #1 typically gets a little more slack.

[boyonthedock]

yep. the predictin' business is a tough road to hoe. Just the way I see it goin' down, but I've been colossally, criminally wrong before.

[Benny B]

Unless the train derails, it's hard to imagine IU dropping below a 2-seed. IU has 7 more games with teams currently ranked in the top 15. Even if they go 2-5 in those games, that's still 2 quality wins and 5 "quality losses" (for lack of a better term). Not to mention, a team that was the preseason #1 typically gets a little more slack.

A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.

IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota.  Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.

Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture.  Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico.  I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.

IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota.  Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.

Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture.  Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico.  I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.

Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25?   Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.

[🏀]

Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25?   Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.

I'll bet a night of blackout drinking at the first C-7 conference tournament in Indy they don't drop out.

[martyconlonontherun]

Second round (Round of 64) re-matches are prohibited.  Third round (Round of 32) re-matches are allowed, but only to preserve other selection rules/guidelines.

In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round... it couldn't just match the two up for the sake of convenience.  Lunardi does a decent job of forecasting the teams that will be in the tournament, but he's not so great with locations/matchups.

To me this is like an early mock draft where you dont factor on team needs until real close to the draft. It's way to early to be looking into matchup and potential scenarios that won't be allowed. You just are trying to get a general standing. If you fool around with I right now, it would lose accuracy since you are only shifting for hypotheticals. 

[Benny B]

Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25?   Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.

Put the prediction in your signature line, and if you win, you can choose any post of mine that I'll put in my signature until the end of the season, and if I win, I get to choose any post of yours to put in your signature.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Put the prediction in your signature line, and if you win, you can choose any post of mine that I'll put in my signature until the end of the season, and if I win, I get to choose any post of yours to put in your signature.

Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit.  Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative.

[Benny B]

Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit.  Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative.

If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.

[Lennys Tap]

A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.

IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota.  Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.

Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture.  Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico.  I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.

I hope you're right about IU being overrated but think the real odds for them being out of the top 25 at any time this season, let alone by Feb 11, are minuscule.

[brewcity77]

Indiana is currently ranked #7 in the country. For Indiana to drop out, they'll have to lose more than the expected games. Here's their schedule blocks:

WEEK ONE: Penn State, Michigan State

Both at home. If they win both, they'll probably climb 2 spots and I would guess there is absolutely no way they drop out.

WEEK TWO: @ Purdue, Michigan

Losing to Michigan, even at home, won't hurt much. Losing to Purdue would. Regardless, they are very good at home, and Purdue hasn't been very good anywhere.

WEEK THREE: @ Illinois, @ Ohio State

This may be one the Illini need, and I expect they'd lose to Ohio State. IU is usually poor on the road, so a 2-loss week is possible.

In that stretch, I think they need to go 1-5 to drop out completely. Even if they go 2-4 (beating PSU and Purdue) I think they will be right around the 20-25 spots. They play at least one top-15 team each week, those don't hurt you that much.

[🏀]

If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.

This excites me, but I'm doubtful of the outcome.

[🏀]

Indiana is currently ranked #7 in the country. For Indiana to drop out, they'll have to lose more than the expected games. Here's their schedule blocks:

WEEK ONE: Penn State, Michigan State

Both at home. If they win both, they'll probably climb 2 spots and I would guess there is absolutely no way they drop out.

WEEK TWO: @ Purdue, Michigan

Losing to Michigan, even at home, won't hurt much. Losing to Purdue would. Regardless, they are very good at home, and Purdue hasn't been very good anywhere.

WEEK THREE: @ Illinois, @ Ohio State

This may be one the Illini need, and I expect they'd lose to Ohio State. IU is usually poor on the road, so a 2-loss week is possible.

In that stretch, I think they need to go 1-5 to drop out completely. Even if they go 2-4 (beating PSU and Purdue) I think they will be right around the 20-25 spots. They play at least one top-15 team each week, those don't hurt you that much.

I only see it happening if they beat PSU and lose the rest.

[JD]

If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.

I'm licking my chops over here... Please win Benny, and please lose IU.