Marquette's Ceiling - a 5 seed?

[RTutton]

Hey all,

I've been posting in another thread about the C7 expansion and VCU, but I wrote a blurb about Marquette in my bracketology blog. I like their chances to be there in March.

http://www.bracketdance.com/blog.html

Feel free to comment, criticize, love, hate, delete this thread, etc. It's been cool posting over here, you guys are an awesome group of fans.

[brewcity77]

Well, our ceiling, if we win out, is still a 1-seed. 18-0 in the Big East and a conference tourney title would do that. I think we go 12-6 and enter the tourney with a 23-8 record and get a 4-seed, though 5-6 is probably more realistic.

[JakeBarnes]

Well, our ceiling, if we win out, is still a 1-seed. 18-0 in the Big East and a conference tourney title would do that. I think we go 12-6 and enter the tourney with a 23-8 record and get a 4-seed, though 5-6 is probably more realistic.

Keep the dream alive, brew!

[CAGASS24]

Tell you what; if this team keeps up the small improvements I really can see a 13+ win conf season....the ceiling with this team is like every other marq team under buzz- the absolute top.  I honestly think we are talented enough to be able to win any game ( without any caveat such as making 75 percent of threes or forcing 25 turnovers ) and can match up with anyone in the country.  Concentration, execution, and effort on a high level and we can go all the way )  Sure we'll have one or two piss down our leg games and everyone here will be convinced how bad we are, but I just don't see it.  14-4 and finally making a conf final game and at least being in it at the end equals another three seed.  

[jsglow]

Good site RTutton.  I'll spend some time.

[RTutton]

Tell you what; if this team keeps up the small improvements I really can see a 13+ win conf season....the ceiling with this team is like every other marq team under buzz- the absolute top.  I honestly think we are talented enough to be able to win any game ( without any caveat such as making 75 percent of threes or forcing 25 turnovers ) and can match up with anyone in the country.  Concentration, execution, and effort on a high level and we can go all the way )  Sure we'll have one or two piss down our leg games and everyone here will be convinced how bad we are, but I just don't see it.  14-4 and finally making a conf final game and at least being in it at the end equals another three seed.  

You go 14-4 and you'll be playing in Auburn Hills with a top 4 seed for sure.

[🏀]

You go 14-4 and you'll be playing in Auburn Hills with a top 4 seed for sure.

Ah crap, Auburn Hills? I'd rather play out west again.

[g0lden3agle]

Ah crap, Auburn Hills? I'd rather play out west again.

Having just recently moved back to my home state, I would very much appreciate a chance to see some MU tourney action in person for the first time.

[bilsu]

Last year we were 11-2 non-conference and lost our first two Big East road games. I am not sure of the timing of those games, but I think our current record is now better than last year's record especially, if we win tonight against Seton Hall.

[frozena pizza]

Last year we were 11-2 non-conference and lost our first two Big East road games. I am not sure of the timing of those games, but I think our current record is now better than last year's record especially, if we win tonight against Seton Hall.

Yep, we were 12-4 after starting out 1-2 in the conference.  Things actually looked kind of bleak at that point since we had lost 4 of 6, including the loss at LSU, getting blown out at home by Vanderbilt and blowing a big lead at Georgetown.  Then we won 7 straight.  The Big East is a little weak this year after Louisville and Syracuse.  As long as we take care of business we should be in good shape.

[Goose]

Hard to believe any team could have a ceiling at this point in the season. Sitting here today I wouldly gladly be a five seed. Lot of basketball to be played and will be crazy season. Reminds me of the two years Butler made their run. There does not seem to be the elite team that is unbeatable and would not be surprised if low seed plays in FF.

[MUMonster03]

Yep, we were 12-4 after starting out 1-2 in the conference.  Things actually looked kind of bleak at that point since we had lost 4 of 6, including the loss at LSU, getting blown out at home by Vanderbilt and blowing a big lead at Georgetown.  Then we won 7 straight.  The Big East is a little weak this year after Louisville and Syracuse.  As long as we take care of business we should be in good shape.

I believe we were ranked at that time wern't we? Last year things were expected out of us and this year I feel like the expectations were low.

I don't know if I would go as far to say as we could beat anyone, that demolishing Florida gave us was pretty bad and we just don't seem to match up with them well.

[Benny B]

At this static moment in time, Marquette is a 5-seed.

"Ceiling" is a very vague term.  Brew is correct, MU's ceiling is still a #1 seed, but that is also the ceiling for probably 20-30 other teams at this point.  Given forward projections for MU, I would say a #3 seed is the ceiling (2nd place finish in Big East, lose in BET semis).  If you want to define "ceiling" as the most likely outcome at this juncture, MU is probably a 6-seed.

Moral of story: "ceiling" is a very, very, very bad term to use when forecasting this early in the season.

[brewcity77]

We're actually ranked almost exactly where we were last year at this time. The difference is, at least perception-wise, we're improving now whereas last year's team had lost 4/6.

I look at our schedule and don't see a game we can't win, including on the road at #1 Louisville on Super Bowl Sunday...and if we do win that game, how much does it suck that NO ONE will be talking at all about #1 Louisville losing to Marquette they'll all be talking about what will probably be a Super Bowl blowout win for the Patriots? There are tough games, but no team we can't beat in this league.

Florida did blow us out, but I think that level of domination was a bit of a fluke. We shot horribly, couldn't get to the line, and got pounded on the glass. I have to think that's the worst we could play. They might beat us 8/10 times, but I think they'd only beat us that badly 1/10 times and most times it'd probably be a single-digit game, especially on a neutral court. Hopefully if we do see them again Otule's mobility will have improved, we'll get a few more free throws, and some of our shots will fall.

[JD]

We're actually ranked almost exactly where we were last year at this time. The difference is, at least perception-wise, we're improving now whereas last year's team had lost 4/6.

I look at our schedule and don't see a game we can't win, including on the road at #1 Louisville on Super Bowl Sunday...and if we do win that game, how much does it suck that NO ONE will be talking at all about #1 Louisville losing to Marquette they'll all be talking about what will probably be a Super Bowl blowout win for the Patriots? There are tough games, but no team we can't beat in this league.

Florida did blow us out, but I think that level of domination was a bit of a fluke. We shot horribly, couldn't get to the line, and got pounded on the glass. I have to think that's the worst we could play. They might beat us 8/10 times, but I think they'd only beat us that badly 1/10 times and most times it'd probably be a single-digit game, especially on a neutral court. Hopefully if we do see them again Otule's mobility will have improved, we'll get a few more free throws, and some of our shots will fall.

I still cannot grasp how you think MU will come close in the Louisville game let alone win...  I watched them 2 nights ago and Silva is a BEAST.  He would run circles around Junior or Derrick.  If they stay within 10 i'd be happy and surprised.  There is no way they win that game.

[frozena pizza]

I look at our schedule and don't see a game we can't win, including on the road at #1 Louisville on Super Bowl Sunday...and if we do win that game, how much does it suck that NO ONE will be talking at all about #1 Louisville losing to Marquette they'll all be talking about what will probably be a Super Bowl blowout win for the Patriots?

Don't worry Brew, if we win that game I'll be telling everyone at my Super Bowl party about it.  The flip side is that if we get blown out, no one will notice.

[Goose]

We are a long ways from matching UL on the court. I always have hope for MU but must admit realistic expecations going into that game. Biggest problem I see is that we are not a system team perse. Teams like UW or Butler are better situated for springing an upset than we are.

[brewcity77]

I still cannot grasp how you think MU will come close in the Louisville game let alone win...  I watched them 2 nights ago and Silva is a BEAST.  He would run circles around Junior or Derrick.  If they stay within 10 i'd be happy and surprised.  There is no way they win that game.

1. Defensively, I only care about 2 guys -- Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. Either Vander or Todd are always on Smith. Both are solid man defenders and have a significant length advantage. Pester the hell out of Siva. Keep one person on him and try to trap him with doubles. He can be turnover-prone, that hasn't changed.

2. We have to crash the hell out of the defensive boards. When Louisville misses shots (and they are a good, not great, shooting team) you have to control the glass to keep away from the press.

3. Win the free throw battle. We are better at getting to the line and better at not putting other teams on it. If we get Dieng in foul trouble, we have a big advantage inside.

4. Don't turn it over. Louisville is really good at turning teams over. I think some 2-PG sets will help with this, especially against a team who usually has two 6'0" players on the floor.

5. Get lucky. We will need some breaks to win this game. I'm not saying we will win, but I think that the 8% chance Pomeroy gives us is ludicrous. I would give us about a 30% chance of winning. But this team is one I think will get better by the week. Buzz will have almost a full week to prepare and the team will certainly be amped for it provided UL doesn't slip up against Syracuse or Georgetown. Get a couple lucky bounces, hope a few fouls go our way, and make sure it's close in the final 4 minutes and we can absolutely beat them.

[Goose]

Brew

Love your confidence. I would give us less than 5% chance of winning and I am a homer when it comes to MU. Hope you are right.

[Golden Avalanche]

I just hope Marquette makes the NCAA Tournament.

[RTutton]

Well a lot has changed since I last posted. The overall profile of this team is great. Balanced, disciplined. Their resume is fine as well, although the one thing of slight concern is their lack of major opportunities for non-home wins until the BET. The game at Georgetown on Monday will be one of the most important of the season for that very reason.

For now I have Marquette as a 4 in San Jose, which exceeds where I thought they would get a few weeks ago. There are too many excellent wins to ignore. Make no mistake, though. Getting up in the 3 seed range is critical to get placed in a region fairly close to home. A win @ the Hoyas and one big win in the BET plus taking care of business in games you should win would get you there, IMO.

Cheers.

http://www.bracketdance.com/bracket-projections.html

[77ncaachamps]

I just hope Marquette makes the NCAA Tournament.

Hear, Hear!

[brinsler]

Marquette gets a 4 with a real chance at a 3 seed.

[Sunbelt15]

6 seed

[BrewCity83]

Well a lot has changed since I last posted. The overall profile of this team is great. Balanced, disciplined. Their resume is fine as well, although the one thing of slight concern is their lack of major opportunities for non-home wins until the BET. The game at Georgetown on Monday will be one of the most important of the season for that very reason.

For now I have Marquette as a 4 in San Jose, which exceeds where I thought they would get a few weeks ago. There are too many excellent wins to ignore. Make no mistake, though. Getting up in the 3 seed range is critical to get placed in a region fairly close to home. A win @ the Hoyas and one big win in the BET plus taking care of business in games you should win would get you there, IMO.

Cheers.

http://www.bracketdance.com/bracket-projections.html

Looks like we've already blown through one ceiling...