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[The Equalizer]

Last year ...

* we were robbed of a few weekend games because of the NBA lockout forced a condensed 66 game schedule.  The Bucks had priority in scheduling as we had to move some game to weekdays.   After January 1, only three of our remaining 8 home BE games were weekends (Pitt Jan 14, Cincy Feb 2 and GU Mar 3).

* If you assume MU fans also attend Bucks games, between these two last year the games were coming fast and furious in the BC.  Their night have been some over-saturation.

* We also did not play Wisconsin

* We had a really weak early non-conference schedule (Mount St. Marys, Norfolk, Jacksonville and Northern Co)

So yes, the highly ranked team and DJO/Jae should have dragged people to the BC.  But, all the stars aligned in the wrong way to make last year a crappy year for attendance.

There is a danger in drawing assumptions simply by looking at the 2012 schedule in isolation.  Compare the points you make about 2012 with what happened in 2008:

* The Bucks actually played 23 home games January through March 2008 (compared to 22 in what you call an  "oversaturated" 2012).  

* In 2008 we also did not play Wisconsin at home.

* In 2008 We had a really weak non-conference which included Savanna Sate, Coppin State, Sacremento State, Utah Valley State, IUPUI, IUPU-FW and Florida Gulf Coast.  We actually played one less crappy non-conference opponent in 2012, adding a quality SEC team in Vanderbilt to the schedule.  

* In 2008 only 4 home BE conference games were on Saturdays, but there were no Sunday (Villanova) or Holiday (Louisville) games as there were in 2012, and two of those Saturday games were against crappy Big East teams (DePaul, Rutgers).

Mabye the stars did align in 2012 for a crappy year for attendance.  But the stars aligned in a similar way in 2008, and we managed to overcome it.

[Tugg Speedman]

There is a danger in drawing assumptions simply by looking at the 2012 schedule in isolation.  Compare the points you make about 2012 with what happened in 2008:

* The Bucks actually played 23 home games January through March 2008 (compared to 22 in what you call an  "oversaturated" 2012).  

* In 2008 we also did not play Wisconsin at home.

* In 2008 We had a really weak non-conference which included Savanna Sate, Coppin State, Sacremento State, Utah Valley State, IUPUI, IUPU-FW and Florida Gulf Coast.  We actually played one less crappy non-conference opponent in 2012, adding a quality SEC team in Vanderbilt to the schedule.  

* In 2008 only 4 home BE conference games were on Saturdays, but there were no Sunday (Villanova) or Holiday (Louisville) games as there were in 2012, and two of those Saturday games were against crappy Big East teams (DePaul, Rutgers).

Mabye the stars did align in 2012 for a crappy year for attendance.  But the stars aligned in a similar way in 2008, and we managed to overcome it.

I was not arguing that last year attendance should have approached 2008/2009's all-time record.  I was arguing that last year's below average 15,100 would have been a more average 15,500 to 15,800 if a few things (like Wisconsin at home) had broke our way last year.  They did not.

When you only have 15 home dates spread over 5 months, one or two games difference in the scheduling, like an extra week-end game here or, more marquee games (GU, 'ville, ND) and Wisconsin at home will affect the average attendance for the season by several hundred.

Lastly, if you look at college basketball attendance everywhere it is down.  MU's 2008 high water mark of 16,239 was the 14th largest average attendance in college basketball.  2011 15,586 was the 11th largest that year.  Our absolute attendance was down by almost 700 but our relative position improved three spots,

-------------

More on waning attendance everywhere else ....

Our Student section is 3,670.  Duke's Student section is 1,200
MU undergrad enrollment is 8,000   Duke Undergrad enrollment is 6,500

As this article says, Duke can only sell 650 student tickets.  The rest are sold to the public.
http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/low-attendance-forces-duke-athletics-sell-student-seats

[The Equalizer]

I was not arguing that last year attendance should have approached 2008/2009's all-time record.  I was arguing that last year's below average 15,100 would have been a more average 15,500 to 15,800 if a few things (like Wisconsin at home) had broke our way last year.  They did not.

When you only have 15 home dates spread over 5 months, one or two games difference in the scheduling, like an extra week-end game here or, more marquee games (GU, 'ville, ND) and Wisconsin at home will affect the average attendance for the season by several hundred.

Fine, let's use this year, when we have Wisconsin on the schedule.,

Overall Non-Confernce average attendance:
2008 (No Wisconsin): 14,384
This year (WITH Wisconsin) 14,027

Even with Wisconsin pulling up attenance this year, we're down over 350/game. 

For example, compare season openers--both times aginst cupcakes:
2008:  IUPUI drew 13,991
This year:  Colgate drew 13,065

Best attended non-conference game:
2008:  UW-Milwauee 18,283
This year: Wisconsin 18,588

Final Non-conference tuneup:
Savannah State: 15,060
North Carolina Central: 13,600

First Big East home game:
2008: Providence: 17,041
This year: Uconn: 14,159

Our attendance is down this year--and that's WITH Wisconsin on the non-conference schedule.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Anything yet on today's meeting?

[Tugg Speedman]

Our attendance is down this year--and that's WITH Wisconsin on the non-conference schedule.

We have played 7 home games, have 8 left ... what is your point?  That you can predict how the next 8 are going to turn out?

[MU82]

The New Kennel is still brand new so I don't see the Zags leaving. Lotta pride in that facility and it's a great home court advantage. Maybe some big games get played downtown.

This is the exact kind of situation DePaul needs. Build a small on-campus arena, no more than 8,000 fans. Sell it out and make it a "kennel" or "barn" or some other kind of rowdy atmosphere visiting teams hate. Then, if you get good enough and/or when a super-attractive opponent comes to town, play them at the United Center. This was the way it was at UConn back before they became great -- tough little arena in Storrs, gradually playing more home games in Hartford.

Gonzaga is to be commended for doing things right and making each Zags game a hot ticket.

[tower912]

We have played 7 home games, have 8 left ... what is your point?  That you can predict how the next 8 are going to turn out?

If he thinks it can make MU look bad, he can. 

[jsglow]

No doubt MU attendance has suffered a bit from the peak in 2008.  Economic conditions have simply dictated.  But there's little doubt that most other schools have suffered more and that our strong 2013 conference dates this year will allow us to have a good overall average here in 2012-13.

One thing I'd like to add.  The university made the decision to lower student season tickets back to $99 this season after experimenting with $125 last year.  I sense the decision to increase the price last year had a fairly dramatic impact.  $99 is the correct price point in my mind and they'd do well to maintain that long term.  The more kids we pack in (within reason), the better the experience is for all.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If he thinks it can make MU look bad, he can. 

He presents logical arguments that are usually fact based...lets the data be heard and usually has an opinion that is tied to the data.   

I've always liked his approach...one of the smartest guys on this board from an educational perspective.  Very impressive background.

[Lennys Tap]

He presents logical arguments that are usually fact based...lets the data be heard and usually has an opinion that is tied to the data.   

I've always liked his approach...one of the smartest guys on this board from an educational perspective.  Very impressive background.

Can't speak to his background but I'll take your word for it.

As to his "approach" (long winded, fact twisting misrepresentations of other's statements), I don't find a whole lot to like. I think you're getting dangerously close to being in a "vast minority"

[The Equalizer]

We have played 7 home games, have 8 left ... what is your point?  That you can predict how the next 8 are going to turn out?

I was responding to your list of suggestions as to why attendance was declining, none of which fit with reality. Good theories. But all were wrong.

If you have some other idea, I'd be happy to hear it.  Meanwhile, the facts suggest the decline in attendance over the last five years can't be easily explained away by your theories of Wisconsin games, crappy cupcakes, or not enough marquee weekend opponents.

I don't know for sure what the next 8 games will bring attendance-wise, but we'll know more after Georgetown, which we can compare to Pitt last year (18,404 for a marquee Saturday opponent during winter break).

If he thinks it can make MU look bad, he can.  

Nothing I can say could make MU look any worse than losing to Green Bay, blowing a 21 point lead to LSU, or suffering a 30+ point blowout against Florida.

As to his "approach" (long winded, fact twisting misrepresentations of other's statements), I don't find a whole lot to like. I think you're getting dangerously close to being in a "vast minority"

To correct your error, my approach is quoting the twisted misreprensentations of others (like you above), then rebutting them with facts.

I beleiev your "long-winded" argument is code for "you got me, but I'll be damned if I admit it." 

[Tugg Speedman]

I was responding to your list of suggestions as to why attendance was declining, none of which fit with reality. Good theories. But all were wrong.

If you have some other idea, I'd be happy to hear it.  Meanwhile, the facts suggest the decline in attendance over the last five years can't be easily explained away by your theories of Wisconsin games, crappy cupcakes, or not enough marquee weekend opponents.

Year       Rank              Avg. Attendance
2003       11                   15,553
2004       12                   15,291
2005       21                   11,965
2006       18                   13,998
2007       20                   15,345
2008       14                   16,239
2009       10                   16,200
2010       10                   15,617
2011       11                   15,586     
2012                              15,100


Since you're not listening to me, I will SAY IT SLOWLY.  Above is our attendance numbers.  I never argued we were are near the 2008/2009 peaks.  Instead I argued that last year's 15,100 was more like 15,500 to 15,800 like the previous two years if we had played Wisconsin at home and had one more Saturday home game.  Had that happened, like it did in previous years, last year's attendance could have been more like 15,500+.  That is all I was saying,  You took that and compared it to 2008 and a bunch of other stuff I never implied.

Now why is our attendance declining from 2008?  Again I will speak SLOWLY ... All schools are seeing attendance fall.  Notice that our national attendance rank goes up even though our attendance goes down.  That means ... everyone else is falling faster.

Go see the Duke link on the previous page,  They cannot sellout their student section of 900 anymore.  We get 3,000 students in a student section of 3,6000 and we get 10 threads about why the student section sucks. 

[MU82]

Boys ... boys ... boys ... do I have to turn this car around right now?

[The Equalizer]

Since you're not listening to me, I will SAY IT SLOWLY.  Above is our attendance numbers.  I never argued we were are near the 2008/2009 peaks.  Instead I argued that last year's 15,100 was more like 15,500 to 15,800 like the previous two years if we had played Wisconsin at home and had one more Saturday home game.

Had that happened, like it did in previous years, last year's attendance could have been more like 15,500+.  That is all I was saying,  You took that and compared it to 2008 and a bunch of other stuff I never implied.

I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure your comment was in response to a post that mentioned the 1000+ decline in attendance since 2008.  Re-read the comment that you replied to:
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=35270.msg435028#msg435028

I think you overplay the Wisconsin and weekend angles, but I'll play along just for fun.

Let's pretend that instead of UWM we played Wisconsin.  Attendece would have grown from 14,917 by about 4,000.  Lets also pretend that instead of playing Louisville on a Monday that drew 16,688, we played them on a Saturday and drew 2,332 more.

6,332 more fans over 16 games comes to an average of 396 more per game.  15,138 + 396 is 15,533 (which is well short of 15,800 end of the range you provided). 

And it still leaves an unexplained decline of more than 700 per game from 2008.

Now why is our attendance declining from 2008?  Again I will speak SLOWLY ... All schools are seeing attendance fall.  Notice that our national attendance rank goes up even though our attendance goes down.  That means ... everyone else is falling faster.

Everyone else?

Why don't we actually compare the top 15 from last year and see if everyone else is falling faster?

2012 top 15 (change from 2008)

1. UK 23721 (up 1167 since 2008)
2. Syr. 23618 (up 3273)
5. UL 21,503 (up 2022)
4. UNC 20159 (down 335)
5. UW 17181 (down 9)
6. Creighton 16,665 (up 1,328)
7. Tenn. 16,543 (down 3724)
8. Ohio State 16,462 (down 76)
9. Indiana 16,462 (down 405)
10. Kansas 16,445 (up 36)
11. Memphis  16,234 (down 541)
12. BYU 15,424 (up 1906)
13. MU 15,138 (down 1,101)
14. Illinois 14,986 (down 1,650)
15. MSU 14,797 (up 38)

Not only is everyone else NOT falling faster, 7 of the top 15 actualy grew!

And of those falling, most aren't falling faster than us--only TWO of those teams fell faster than we did.

So, no matter how slowly you say it, your comment that all schools are seeing attendance fall faster than ours is simply not consistent with the facts.   

[brewcity77]

I don't think you're making a fair argument there, 84. Not saying there may not be accuracy to it, but unless you compare the positions of all of the 2008 top attendance schools, there's a huge potential for inaccuracy. Are all the top schools the same? I suspect there are some below 15 that were above Marquette in 2008.

Regardless, I think a big difference that I haven't seen mentioned (granted, I'm jumping in late) is Tom Crean. The guy was pure salesman. He drew people to the game by sheer force of personality. And while some would point to the Indiana numbers and say "they're down and he's there" I'd be curious to see what the numbers were between 2008 and 2012, my guess is they were lower than that and are rising, and likely this year will be back at 2008 levels or even higher.

Though I fail to see what any of this has to do with the prospective new members for the conference.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Obviously winning% affects those numbers up or down with the number falling for just MU to 11,965 in 2004-05 after the F4 hangover.  So does new construction like the Yum! Center in 2010.  The recession hit hard after those 2008 seats were reseated so 2009 took a hit.  More so, the Amigos created a F4 buzz that saw a steady climb since 2004-05 with the entry into the BE.  Also, the AD while Crean was there gave away a lot of freebies to amp crowd size, whether these figures represent those I am unsure.  MU switched to the $99 plans after to encourage the occasional/weekend fans, and to garner some revenue.  And I agree that Crean as a salesman was a major factor...the dude for better or worse was spinning every day in the national media.

[Tugg Speedman]

I don't think you're making a fair argument there, 84. Not saying there may not be accuracy to it, but unless you compare the positions of all of the 2008 top attendance schools, there's a huge potential for inaccuracy. Are all the top schools the same? I suspect there are some below 15 that were above Marquette in 2008.

Regardless, I think a big difference that I haven't seen mentioned (granted, I'm jumping in late) is Tom Crean. The guy was pure salesman. He drew people to the game by sheer force of personality. And while some would point to the Indiana numbers and say "they're down and he's there" I'd be curious to see what the numbers were between 2008 and 2012, my guess is they were lower than that and are rising, and likely this year will be back at 2008 levels or even higher.

Though I fail to see what any of this has to do with the prospective new members for the conference.

My guess is the 2008/2009 years saw the peak as they were driven by an expectation that those teams were something special (three amigos).  As was pointed out before, 2009 was after the economy collapsed and 2009 was also Buzz's first year.  So the Crean and economy arguments for changing attendance fall short.

Following on this, my guess is the hype around next year's recruiting class could duplicate the 2008/2008 attendance number, but not next year. ASSUMING that class lives up to its billing, and nothing else materially changes (like Buzz leaving), in 2 to 4 years we could see attendance numbers back near the 2008/2009 peaks.

[Tugg Speedman]

Obviously winning% affects those numbers up or down with the number falling for just MU to 11,965 in 2004-05 after the F4 hangover.  So does new construction like the Yum! Center in 2010.  The recession hit hard after those 2008 seats were reseated so 2009 took a hit.  More so, the Amigos created a F4 buzz that saw a steady climb since 2004-05 with the entry into the BE.  Also, the AD while Crean was there gave away a lot of freebies to amp crowd size, whether these figures represent those I am unsure.  MU switched to the $99 plans after to encourage the occasional/weekend fans, and to garner some revenue.  And I agree that Crean as a salesman was a major factor...the dude for better or worse was spinning every day in the national media.

Thanks dr.  My larger point in answering the question why are the attendance numbers down about a thousand from the peak.  Or, where did those 15,000 people go? Their are almost too many variables to answer this question in one sentence, or even a paragraph.

[Tugg Speedman]

Equalizer, in 2008 we drew 16,239 and ranked 14th in national attendance.  In 2012 we drew 15,138 and ranked 13th.  How did we move up one spot?  Answer, you have the wrong table above.  Need to compare the 2008 list, not the 2012 list.  A bunch of other schools from the 2008 list fell faster than us allowing us to move up one spot despite our drop in attendance.

[Benny B]

Are we really arguing about causes of and conclusions to be drawn from attendance numbers?

It's like reading a book on how to win at roulette.

[rocky_warrior]