fiscal cliff

[Benny B]

The late 1990's had the .com boom, as well.  That is never going to be repeated again.  That was a temporary gift that lead to irrational exuberance and a false economic bump.  Not sure that is the date range I would use.  It was also before terrorist attacks on the US.

The 2000's had the housing boom.  That is never going to be repeated again.  The question you should be asking is what will be the boom in the 2010's that will never be repeated again?

Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are destined to repeat them... they just might not be exactly the same mistakes, though.

[ChicosBailBonds]

FDR said no such thing.

I'm not sure how things are in California, but the average public worker pension here in Illinois is less than $40,000. For a teacher, it's a whopping $45,000. And, keep in mind, these are people who get no Social Security.
The average public pension in Wisconsin is less than $25,000.


Unfunded because legislators chose not to fund them.

About 80% don't get Social Security, not 100%..but you make a good point.  However, they are also not forced to pay into SS, either, which means they earn more upfront and the benefits are greater than SS.   http://www.illinoispolicy.org/news/article.asp?ArticleSource=4523

The amounts of the pensions are also skewed because it is only recently that those with the biggest pensions are retiring and hammering the budgets.  A teacher in California with 35 years in the system can retire at age 60 and expect to earn $87K per year.  The amounts for other sectors is higher, north of $100K and being able to retire at 50.

On the FDR stuff, well it's been debated both ways.  "FDR warned us about public sector unions" NY Times piece.  "It is impossible to collectively bargain with the government"  http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/02/18/the-first-blow-against-public-employees/fdr-warned-us-about-public-sector-unions


Unfunded because legislators chose not to fund them and because the money doesn't exist to cover them anyway.  It just doesn't exist at the levels they have been promised.


Good debate, glad everyone kept it civil.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The 2000's had the housing boom.  That is never going to be repeated again.  The question you should be asking is what will be the boom in the 2010's that will never be repeated again?

Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are destined to repeat them... they just might not be exactly the same mistakes, though.

Some of us were smart enough not to be taken in by the housing boom and buying more house than we could afford.  It easily could have been done, but we didn't.  That's part of the anger for having to bail out a bunch of idiots that bought $750K homes out here for nothing down and a $70K a year job.  And yes, the blame goes to many...gov't, banks, lending institutions, buyers, etc.  But as is typically the case, the person that goes slow and steady, keeps his nose out of trouble is usually the one left holding the bill.

[Pakuni]

On the FDR stuff, well it's been debated both ways.  "FDR warned us about public sector unions" NY Times piece.  "It is impossible to collectively bargain with the government"  http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/02/18/the-first-blow-against-public-employees/fdr-warned-us-about-public-sector-unions

FDR did say he was opposed to having to collectively bargain with public unions, but the context of that comment was in reference to dealing with his prior civilian Navy workers. Essentially he didn't believe people who worked in necessary government services should be allowed to walk off the job in a labor dispute. Up for interpretation if he would have extended that position to teachers and office clerks,
He was not opposed to the unions themselves, much less wanted them outlawed.

Unfunded because legislators chose not to fund them and because the money doesn't exist to cover them anyway.  It just doesn't exist at the levels they have been promised.

I suppose we're going around in circles on this last point, but the reason the money doesn't exist is because the legislators have chosen to spend it elsewhere.
Here's a description of what's happening from a news source I think we can agree is not liberal. My favorite example is my home state's, which borrowed $10 billion to pay down pension obligations ... then proceeded to spend the money on anything but pension obligations:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/10/09/games-states-play-with-underfunded-pensions-665490505/

I don't disagree that there are some egregious examples of pension abuse out there, but by and large the issue is less one of the pensions being too high as it is one of lawmakers taste for spending elsewhere being too high.

[Tugg Speedman]

[hairy worthen]

The only one that really made Rick Perry look bad was Rick Perry, and I'll give you three reasons why:

1. His debate skills rival those of a rhesus monkey.

2. He is easily tripped up by annoying things known as facts. (Um, Gov. Dopey, Turkey is our ally and isn't run by "Islamic terrorists.")

3. And let's see ... I can't ... The third one, I can't ... Sorry ... Oops.

I won't disagree with you there. Not an impressive candidate. That has nothing to do with what the media does

[ATL MU Warrior]

I won't disagree with you there. Not an impressive candidate. That has nothing to do with what the media does

then why did you say this?

I am sure you can find a number of articles that support any argument. You are using some pretty liberal leaning publications that had an agenda of making Rick Perry look bad when he was running for president.  CNN, NY Times, and 2 dot orgs.  Not exactly organizations that I would trust to get unbiased information. 
There are other factors that those articles will not tell you, like Texas has a huge Hispanic and illegal alien problem that skew the numbers.  Air quality?  There are many cities that have air quality issues for a number of reasons, L.A., Denver, Chicago. 

[hairy worthen]

then why did you say this?

I guess reading comprehension is not your thing. What does one comment have to do with the other. Do you think Perry's opponents would stop attacking him just because he already looks like a baffoon?

[ATL MU Warrior]

I guess reading comprehension is not your thing. What does one comment have to do with the other. Do you think Perry's opponents would stop attacking him just because he already looks like a baffoon?

It seemed clear you were blaming the media for "making Rick Perry look bad" in one post then saying it had nothing to do with the media in another, but whatever. 

You might try to learn how to spell before criticizing others you "Baffoon" 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The 2000's had the housing boom.  That is never going to be repeated again.  The question you should be asking is what will be the boom in the 2010's that will never be repeated again?

Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are destined to repeat them... they just might not be exactly the same mistakes, though.

A good candidate for the next bubble is Natural Gas or the Fracking Bubble.

[hairy worthen]

It seemed clear you were blaming the media for "making Rick Perry look bad" in one post then saying it had nothing to do with the media in another, but whatever. 

You might try to learn how to spell before criticizing others you "Baffoon" 

Two separate thoughts.  1. Rick Perry not a good presidential candidate.  The media has little to do with that. 2. The media is bias and can/will slant stories to further an agenda. They will do this regardless if the candidate is good or bad.  I know it wasn’t clear,  but it’s a MU basketball board not a PhD dissertation, plus I was typing on a smart phone with my knobby fingers. 

Now I am finished with this annoying topic. I thought this would be locked by now.

[Strokin 3s]

A good candidate for the next bubble is Natural Gas or the Fracking Bubble.

In what respect are you talking about this being a bubble?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

A good candidate for the next bubble is Natural Gas or the Fracking Bubble.

Honestly, I think athletics (college and pro) might be a good candidate.

TONS of $ moving around right now... and anytime that amount of $ starts moving without a lot of forethought, it makes me nervous.

We all assume there is a lot of forethought with all of the college moves, but I'm not so sure.

[mu03eng]

Honestly, I think athletics (college and pro) might be a good candidate.

TONS of $ moving around right now... and anytime that amount of $ starts moving without a lot of forethought, it makes me nervous.

We all assume there is a lot of forethought with all of the college moves, but I'm not so sure.

Completely agree on this assessment.  Anytime a group starts thinking the gravy won't end or the paradigm won't change while moving around a ton of money is formula for a bubble.

Several factors at play, including, at some point American's are going to have to tighten their discretionary spending meaning fewer dollars for sports entertainment.  Leagues are driving to develop more content to provide to the flood of sports networks being created and which are paying insane amounts of money to get that content.  At some point the value of the content won't be equal to the money being spent on it and you'll see some networks shutter, collapsing the system.  Lastly, especially with football, there is some concern around concussions that will impact that value/cost of football at all levels.

Interesting times.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Completely agree on this assessment.  Anytime a group starts thinking the gravy won't end or the paradigm won't change while moving around a ton of money is formula for a bubble.

Several factors at play, including, at some point American's are going to have to tighten their discretionary spending meaning fewer dollars for sports entertainment.  Leagues are driving to develop more content to provide to the flood of sports networks being created and which are paying insane amounts of money to get that content.  At some point the value of the content won't be equal to the money being spent on it and you'll see some networks shutter, collapsing the system.  Lastly, especially with football, there is some concern around concussions that will impact that value/cost of football at all levels.

Interesting times.

Yep, I agree completely.

The only thing that I'll add is that there could be a normal "market correction" scenario instead of a "bubble".

If a handful of new sports networks ultimately can't make it because they are paying too much for content and go out of business, that's not necessarily a bubble, that's more of a simple market correction (cost, supply, demand).

But, if the money being spent stops and causes major universities to have a financial crisis and/or cancellation of athletic programs, then we are getting into bubble bursting time. The ripples are huge and carry through multiple industries.

[Bocephys]

Yep, I agree completely.

The only thing that I'll add is that there could be a normal "market correction" scenario instead of a "bubble".

If a handful of new sports networks ultimately can't make it because they are paying too much for content and go out of business, that's not necessarily a bubble, that's more of a simple market correction (cost, supply, demand).

But, if the money being spent stops and causes major universities to have a financial crisis and/or cancellation of athletic programs, then we are getting into bubble bursting time. The ripples are huge and carry through multiple industries.

The Cleveland Indians selling off Sports Time Ohio to Fox Sports this week could be the beginning of that.

[Pakuni]

The Cleveland Indians selling off Sports Time Ohio to Fox Sports this week could be the beginning of that.

I'm not sure I'd put the sports industry on the list of potential bubbles because it's not something in which a significant amount of people are invested (unlike, say, housing or tech stocks), it doesn't employ a significant number of people (unlike the auto and housing industries) and, relative to other economic bubbles we're discussing, it makes up a small segment of the economy.

[reinko]

I'm not sure I'd put the sports industry on the list of potential bubbles because it's not something in which a significant amount of people are invested (unlike, say, housing or tech stocks), it doesn't employ a significant number of people (unlike the auto and housing industries) and, relative to other economic bubbles we're discussing, it makes up a small segment of the economy.

All of this is true, but remember things like tax payer funded stadiums (taxes that impact thousands), service industry bars/restaurants and their employees that depend on turnouts at stadium, stadium employees themselves...

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

All of this is true, but remember things like tax payer funded stadiums (taxes that impact thousands), service industry bars/restaurants and their employees that depend on turnouts at stadium, stadium employees themselves...

A few networks going out of business is a blip on the radar. But, if major teams/schools are suddenly missing a significant amount of revenue that they were counting on, then the dominoes start. That doesn't mean it will hit rock bottom (probably won't), but there is a lot of money betting on sports viewing right now. That's not without significant risk.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

In what respect are you talking about this being a bubble?

The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind Aubrey McClendon's Gas Boom

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-big-fracking-bubble-the-scam-behind-the-gas-boom-20120301#ixzz2GwIg44k5

[Bocephys]

The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind Aubrey McClendon's Gas Boom

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-big-fracking-bubble-the-scam-behind-the-gas-boom-20120301#ixzz2GwIg44k5

Well that sub-headline makes it sound very unbiased...

Another, much briefer point of view.  http://www.economist.com/node/21556249

[mu03eng]

A few networks going out of business is a blip on the radar. But, if major teams/schools are suddenly missing a significant amount of revenue that they were counting on, then the dominoes start. That doesn't mean it will hit rock bottom (probably won't), but there is a lot of money betting on sports viewing right now. That's not without significant risk.

You are also seeing a fair amount of hedge funds/investment groups moving in to sponsor teams, purchasing stock like MSG, etc.

I'm not chicken little here, but I think there is a chance 5-10 years from now the sports industry is going to go splap on the pavement.  Too much money and too much interconnectedness and a lack of foresight on management's side makes for bubble opportunity.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I fully expect to have a natural gas bubble in a few minutes.  Can feel my stomach starting to frack right now.

[Benny B]

All of this is true, but remember things like tax payer funded stadiums (taxes that impact thousands), service industry bars/restaurants and their employees that depend on turnouts at stadium, stadium employees themselves...

In the grand scheme, you're still talking about a miniscule fraction of the population whose lives would be impacted by the implosion of professional sports.  As for college sports, I would focus more on the former, less on the latter.

If I had to guess... post-secondary education is the next bubble that we won't ever repeat; specifically, the costs and debt loads.  At some point, the gov't is simply not going to have the capacity (or desire) to continue to guarantee these loans as more students default.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-27/scariest-chart-quarter-student-debt-bubble-officially-pops-90-day-delinquency-rate-g

[Strokin 3s]

The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind Aubrey McClendon's Gas Boom

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-big-fracking-bubble-the-scam-behind-the-gas-boom-20120301#ixzz2GwIg44k5

Full disclosure, I work in the industry (not directly in drilling).  Reading those two articles I could point out at least 5 errors on the first page of each.  Secondly, I am not sure what the bubble is other than people getting less from their mining rights than they initially thought.  If anything shale gas has taken the bubble out of natural gas since NYMEX prices have stabilized at (what was previously thought) unbelievably low prices just 3-4 years ago.  Natural Gas already had its bubble along with all other commodities in the financial collapse of '08.