Is college football doomed?

[GGGG]

I don't feel I have to explain myself.

Sure.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I don't feel I have to explain myself. 

Lot of that going on with you lately.   

[Tugg Speedman]

My opinion on the matter is that football won't be king forever but it is going to be a long time before it falls and it isn't going to impact MU's current situation nor is it going to impact the C7 contract discussions so why talk about its fall as it is going to happen anytime soon.  Based on people in the know it is 10 yrs away minimally but more realistically iris 20-30yr

Yesterday I stumbled upon a book written by Rick Telander in 1994 about how in 1990 UW athletics was a mess and on the verge of bankruptcy.   I started a thread about it

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=35055.0

So, yes football's popularity does not affect the formation of the C7.  But if football schools over-reach and many schools return to where UW was in 1990, it will indeed affect us.

And it will not take 20 to 30 years.  You will see it starting in the next 3 to 5.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You're right. Football can NEVER FAIL.

C'mon Chicos.

Everything we know about housing now is hindsight. At the time, everybody was riding the train.

Early indicators against football? Concision research. Lawsuits. Less kids playing youth ball. Over expansion of conferences in college.

Now, I'm not saying it's going to fail, but automatically dismissing seems a bit naive.

I'm not saying it can never fail, I want to know what is going to replace it?  Maybe a new sport.  My company is about to launch a new sport next year (I can't reveal for competitive reasons).  We spent 3 years trying to figure out where to go with it.  Even then, it's a toe in the water kind of thing because there isn't a slam dunk sport on the horizon.  If anything, if football falls it will be one of the other majors that bypasses it but it is hard to see what that would be.  By the way, why do people keep saying less kids playing football, the statistics show more are playing today than ever before.  High schools are adding football, colleges are adding football.  Participation at record levels.

My son will be playing next year in high school.  We've talked long and hard about it.  There are risks, there are risks with everything.  We just had another soccer high school player out here die last week.  My son will be playing soccer as well (in California, football in the fall and soccer in the winter) and since he is a goalie is makes me nervous, many of the injuries happen to keepers.

I predict you will see some changes in the equipment that will help some on the danger side for football.  It's in the American fabric, I don't think you are going to see it fall because there are too many fans, too much money to make sure it doesn't. 

As I mentioned earlier in all the studies we do, football is one of the few sports where the top and bottom bolster each other.  Fans that watch high school and college football consume NFL in droves, and vice versa.  This is not the same for basketball.  College fans do not adopt the NBA and vice versa at anywhere close to the same levels.  They are the same game, but they are significantly different enough to diverge the fans. 

[GGGG]

Chicos hits on something that I also don't think people fully realize...how much football is part of the culture.  People watch the NFL on Sundays in the fall.  It is simply what a lot of people do.  That doesn't mean that it won't go through rough patches, but people don't want it to fail.  It is too much a part of who we are as a society.  And what do we replace that with.

I mean look at English soccer.  In the 1980s you had hooliganism.  People crushed at soccer games.  Stadiums actually burning down during televised games.  Seriously, this video is from 1985!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BgcYzkZNWE

Yet how did it survive, and in fact become the richest soccer league in the world?  Because the sport was too ingrained in the culture not to.  Football is like that in the US.

[Tugg Speedman]

Chicos hits on something that I also don't think people fully realize...how much football is part of the culture.  People watch the NFL on Sundays in the fall.  It is simply what a lot of people do.  That doesn't mean that it won't go through rough patches, but people don't want it to fail.  It is too much a part of who we are as a society.  And what do we replace that with.

I mean look at English soccer.  In the 1980s you had hooliganism.  People crushed at soccer games.  Stadiums actually burning down during televised games.  Seriously, this video is from 1985!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BgcYzkZNWE

Yet how did it survive, and in fact become the richest soccer league in the world?  Because the sport was too ingrained in the culture not to.  Football is like that in the US.

But the sport suffered horrendously in the years that followed.  The EPL (english premiership league) was formed in 1992 to try and save it.

It worked but a lot of money was first lost, fans disappeared and the game had to change.  You suggest that nothing happened after 1985.  English soccer had a gut wrenching period before it became what it is today.

My concern is the conference realignments and money spent of college football (new stadiums, facilities, etc) is based on the assumption that football money is a never-ending well that can be dipped into.  This belief is so ingrained that rivalries and conference histories are unimportant. Form everything for TV because the money will always be there.

When it peaks, half these schools will look like UW in 1990.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Chicos hits on something that I also don't think people fully realize...how much football is part of the culture.  People watch the NFL on Sundays in the fall.  It is simply what a lot of people do.  That doesn't mean that it won't go through rough patches, but people don't want it to fail.  It is too much a part of who we are as a society.  And what do we replace that with.

I mean look at English soccer.  In the 1980s you had hooliganism.  People crushed at soccer games.  Stadiums actually burning down during televised games.  Seriously, this video is from 1985!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BgcYzkZNWE

Yet how did it survive, and in fact become the richest soccer league in the world?  Because the sport was too ingrained in the culture not to.  Football is like that in the US.

Just like baseball was ingrained in the American culture in the 1950's?

How about boxing in the 30's?

Football is HUGE and is probably here to stay, but cultures change and evolve over time. It's not inconceivable to think that Americans will change over time.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'm not saying it can never fail, I want to know what is going to replace it?  Maybe a new sport.  My company is about to launch a new sport next year (I can't reveal for competitive reasons).  We spent 3 years trying to figure out where to go with it.  Even then, it's a toe in the water kind of thing because there isn't a slam dunk sport on the horizon.  If anything, if football falls it will be one of the other majors that bypasses it but it is hard to see what that would be.  By the way, why do people keep saying less kids playing football, the statistics show more are playing today than ever before.  High schools are adding football, colleges are adding football.  Participation at record levels.

My son will be playing next year in high school.  We've talked long and hard about it.  There are risks, there are risks with everything.  We just had another soccer high school player out here die last week.  My son will be playing soccer as well (in California, football in the fall and soccer in the winter) and since he is a goalie is makes me nervous, many of the injuries happen to keepers.

I predict you will see some changes in the equipment that will help some on the danger side for football.  It's in the American fabric, I don't think you are going to see it fall because there are too many fans, too much money to make sure it doesn't. 

As I mentioned earlier in all the studies we do, football is one of the few sports where the top and bottom bolster each other.  Fans that watch high school and college football consume NFL in droves, and vice versa.  This is not the same for basketball.  College fans do not adopt the NBA and vice versa at anywhere close to the same levels.  They are the same game, but they are significantly different enough to diverge the fans. 

You're right, and I don't know what is going to replace it... but I'm sure Microsoft felt confident nothing could replace it, Detroit Automakers felt confident nothing could replace it, etc.

I think football is probably here to say, but it seems like you guys are talking with such certainty about it. We've seen sports and culture evolve over time. Football could be apart of that as well.

[mu-rara]

#1. Poor choice of words, but my point was that it wasn't like a technology change.

#2. It doesn't have to be king forever with these contracts...just over the next decade, which it will assuredly be.

#3. NASCAR is an interesting example.  However it really isn't a parallel. 

Sultan,

I used an example of a technology company.  It could have been any institution in any era.  Examples are everywhere. 

I am not predicting the downfall of football.  I am saying there are changes in society that leaders in football should be watching.  To use another tech example (again, this is a world I follow, but you could find examples anywhere) look at IBM.  Late 80's, early 90's IBM had fallen far from grace.  Obituaries were being written.  Lou Gerstner took over, changed IBM into a services company, and 15 years later, they are as powerful as ever.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

Why are we comparing technology companies to sports entertainment?  What do they have to do with one another?  Nothing.

[Benny B]

Why are we comparing technology companies to sports entertainment?  What do they have to do with one another?  Nothing.

Neither do __________ and ___________ but people compare those all the time.

[mu-rara]

Why are we comparing technology companies to sports entertainment?  What do they have to do with one another?  Nothing.

Executive leaders in any industry/institution follow trends from industries/institutions outside of their own.  It's called out of the box thinking.  It's what the big boys/girls get paid large $$ for.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Executive leaders in any industry/institution follow trends from industries/institutions outside of their own.  It's called out of the box thinking.  It's what the big boys/girls get paid large $$ for.

Oh, I definitely get it.  My team is very much involved in looking at the video landscape, for example.  OTT, 4K, authenticated rights, what the music industry did and why they failed, what is Google, Amazon, Apple and others doing?  Clear wire..mobile...where do they fit?  What will studios do?  What will the leagues do?  What will many of the networks and content providers (HBO, Starz, Viacom, etc) do?  My team gets paid to look at those things all the time.  In some areas we will fail, in some areas we will succeed.  Some are out of our control, or the cost is so large it isn't worth the risk.  I totally get you.

But we also put things in proper context as well.  What may be applicable in one industry and have cross over in several others may not in a very unique industry like sports.  It is simply a much different animal.  No one here has been able to articulate what is going to replace football?  What is going to be so huge that 100,000 fans are going to want to cram into a football stadium on Saturdays to watch?  That is so big they will be willing to pay $300 to watch their team on TV if they don't live in their market?  That is so big it will siphon off literally 10's of billions in television contracts?

It's easy to say it won't be as popular, won't be on top, etc.  I think you are ignoring the very fabric of our culture, the tradition and history involved, and the huge huge HUGE dollars invested in that sport that dwarfs everything else.  It's the one sport that women and men follow.  It's the one sport where half this country gets together to watch the championship game on tv.  None of us are soothsayers, but there is a reason why the money and fandom and television investments are there.  It's as sound a bet as you can make.

[BallBoy]

Executive leaders in any industry/institution follow trends from industries/institutions outside of their own.  It's called out of the box thinking.  It's what the big boys/girls get paid large $$ for.

Chicos point is this is a bad analogy which it is.

1.  Microsoft didn't lose popularity because people's tastes changed but because the company itself wasn't innovating in a industry based on innovation
2.  Msft stayed in a desktop world while other players took over the tablet and iPhone markets.  They are nonexistent in those spaces in comparison to google and apple. It's ridiculous what % of the market is apple or android.  
3.  Its competition directly attacked its security features and stability.  Won't happen in sports world as most of these sports don't compete with each other as their seasons are different
4.  Msft also made it hard for it's customers to use its product.  Internet Explorer treats HTML and other things completely differently than many of the other browser while at the same time not adding value.  MSFT spends more time trying to make something theirs versus adopting a standard and building new features on top.  Another example, Windows phones don't use web kit which is the standard for mobile websites/web apps.  
5.  MSFT used its OS as a means to force people to conform to what they wanted but the market has shifted from OS based and many rulings have prevented MS from using its OS that way anymore.
6.  This isn't something that just happened. The trajectory for MS has written on the wall for the last ten years but it is still one of the Big players. 

A better analog would be a study which shows that pizza has dramatically dropped in popularity amongst Americans due to gluten intolerance or long term health concerns (injuries).  Or just that Americans want something new.  Pizza has been engrained in lives of most Americans since they were kids just like watching football. We aren't going to stop eating pizza just because.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ballboy...thank you. 

[ATL MU Warrior]

Thought I would resurrect this thread with an observation from the UF/Louisville Sugar Bowl game.

There was a play where the UL running back was carrying the ball and had his helmet ripped off while running through the line of scrimmage.  Blatant facemask which was completely missed by the officials.  He continues running -- without a helmet -- and get's blasted by the UF linebacker or safety.  Fortunately he was not hit in the head by the defensive player's helmet but he easily could have been.  His head was driven into the ground by the force of the collision.  He bounced right up, collected his helmet, and returned to the huddle or maybe the sideline since his helmet came off.  No problem.

What if any number of things happened differently and he's killed or permanently disabled on that play?  It could easily have happened.  Is there public outrage?  Are there lawsuits from the family against the school, the bowl game, the NCAA etc, etc.? 

For a variety of reasons I don't agree that football is in any real trouble in this country.  However, with a fluke play like this and the very real chance that a player could end up dead on National TV, I don't think it's quite as bulletproof as others seem to think.  And I know that guys have ended up paralyzed, but it's not the same thing, at least to me. 

All I know is that watching that play made my stomach turn as I thought I was going to witness a guy maybe get killed.   

[mu-rara]

Thought I would resurrect this thread with an observation from the UF/Louisville Sugar Bowl game.
There was a play where the UL running back was carrying the ball and had his helmet ripped off while running through the line of scrimmage.  Blatant facemask which was completely missed by the officials.   He bounced right up, collected his helmet, and returned to the huddle or maybe the sideline since his helmet came off.  No problem.
What if any number of things happened differently and he's killed or permanently disabled on that play? 
For a variety of reasons I don't agree that football is in any real trouble in this country.  However, with a fluke play like this and the very real chance that a player could end up dead on National TV, I don't think it's quite as bulletproof as others seem to think.  And I know that guys have ended up paralyzed, but it's not the same thing, at least to me.     

The fact that this discussion exists means that anyone involved in the football business should include this in any SWOT analysis done.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thought I would resurrect this thread with an observation from the UF/Louisville Sugar Bowl game.

There was a play where the UL running back was carrying the ball and had his helmet ripped off while running through the line of scrimmage.  Blatant facemask which was completely missed by the officials.  He continues running -- without a helmet -- and get's blasted by the UF linebacker or safety.  Fortunately he was not hit in the head by the defensive player's helmet but he easily could have been.  His head was driven into the ground by the force of the collision.  He bounced right up, collected his helmet, and returned to the huddle or maybe the sideline since his helmet came off.  No problem.

What if any number of things happened differently and he's killed or permanently disabled on that play?  It could easily have happened.  Is there public outrage?  Are there lawsuits from the family against the school, the bowl game, the NCAA etc, etc.? 

For a variety of reasons I don't agree that football is in any real trouble in this country.  However, with a fluke play like this and the very real chance that a player could end up dead on National TV, I don't think it's quite as bulletproof as others seem to think.  And I know that guys have ended up paralyzed, but it's not the same thing, at least to me. 

All I know is that watching that play made my stomach turn as I thought I was going to witness a guy maybe get killed.   

That rule will change next year in the NCAA I would bet.    The NFL already implemented the rule that when a helmet comes off during a play, it is over immediately (Rule 10.7)...I think it came into being in the last two years.  Though I still remember this play by one of my all time favorites without his helmet.

https://www.youtube.com/v/bEXblEAdoG4



Incidentally, the current NCAA rule of making a player sit out a play when his helmet comes out is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen.  I went to a UCLA game this year where UCLA's RB, Franklin, had his helmet come off multiple plays in a series because the opposition was purposely pulling it off.

[ATL MU Warrior]

That rule will change next year in the NCAA I would bet.    The NFL already implemented the rule that when a helmet comes off during a play, it is over immediately (Rule 10.7)...I think it came into being in the last two years.  Though I still remember this play by one of my all time favorites without his helmet.

Incidentally, the current NCAA rule of making a player sit out a play when his helmet comes out is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen.  I went to a UCLA game this year where UCLA's RB, Franklin, had his helmet come off multiple plays in a series because the opposition was purposely pulling it off.

The NFL rule is all well and good, but the play on the field happened so fast I don't know if the defender could have stopped himself from hitting the guy even if he tried.  So the rule doesn't really prevent the outcome they are trying to prevent, and in this case I don't know if anything could have, it happened so fast.  And the players are only getting faster (and bigger).

[MerrittsMustache]

Incidentally, the current NCAA rule of making a player sit out a play when his helmet comes out is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen.  I went to a UCLA game this year where UCLA's RB, Franklin, had his helmet come off multiple plays in a series because the opposition was purposely pulling it off.

If a player's helmet and chinstrap fit properly (i.e tightly, borderline uncomfortably), it would be VERY difficult for his helmet to come off from a big hit or by being yanked on by an opposing player. My assumption is that the NCAA is trying to get players to stop wearing such loose-fitting helmets.

If they really wanted to crack down, they'd make it a 15-yard penalty if a helmet came off. If that was the case, coaches would be having equipment managers all but soldering helmets to players' heads.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If a player's helmet and chinstrap fit properly (i.e tightly, borderline uncomfortably), it would be VERY difficult for his helmet to come off from a big hit or by being yanked on by an opposing player. My assumption is that the NCAA is trying to get players to stop wearing such loose-fitting helmets.

If they really wanted to crack down, they'd make it a 15-yard penalty if a helmet came off. If that was the case, coaches would be having equipment managers all but soldering helmets to players' heads.

Perhaps, but players and coaches are not happy and there is plenty of claims that defensive players are pulling off the helmets in some cases.  I know in that UCLA game the coaches and players were ticked.  Franklin was killing them and all of a sudden his helmet comes off while he's on the ground.  He has to come out.  Comes in a play later, helmet is off again.  It was borderline laughable.


http://rumorsandrants.com/2012/09/ncaa-football-helmet-rule-is-predictably-backfiring.html

http://www.timesdispatch.com/sports/coaches-and-players-see-flaws-with-ncaa-s-new-helmet/article_234c8cab-86a3-510a-bc3b-ec0f1771194c.html

http://www.forwhomthecowbelltolls.com/2012/9/13/3318214/is-college-footballs-new-helmet-rule-helping-or-hurting

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/64908/new-helmet-rule-seen-across-acc-in-week-1

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1324811-how-college-footballs-new-helmet-rule-is-hurting-the-game-for-all

[ChicosBailBonds]

The NFL rule is all well and good, but the play on the field happened so fast I don't know if the defender could have stopped himself from hitting the guy even if he tried.  So the rule doesn't really prevent the outcome they are trying to prevent, and in this case I don't know if anything could have, it happened so fast.  And the players are only getting faster (and bigger).

It's a violent sport, there are risks.  The rules will try to mitigate the risks, but can never totally remove them.  There have been players killed, paralyzed, etc in the game of football.  I'm not sure what else to say, I certainly understand your concerns on the play and they are reasonable. 

It's interesting, I would suspect most of us here played football in high school or at some level.  When I played, if a guy's helmet came off the natural human reaction was to back off and not want to hurt the guy.  It made you hesitate a second.  That won't be universal, but that was my experience.  The instinctive reaction was not to go even further at the guy because he was defenseless, but rather to back off.

[ATL MU Warrior]

It's a violent sport, there are risks.  The rules will try to mitigate the risks, but can never totally remove them.  There have been players killed, paralyzed, etc in the game of football.  I'm not sure what else to say, I certainly understand your concerns on the play and they are reasonable. 

It's interesting, I would suspect most of us here played football in high school or at some level.  When I played, if a guy's helmet came off the natural human reaction was to back off and not want to hurt the guy.  It made you hesitate a second.  That won't be universal, but that was my experience.  The instinctive reaction was not to go even further at the guy because he was defenseless, but rather to back off.

I don't know that there is anything else to say.  I get that the danger/risk is inherent to the sport.  I just wonder if that danger is going to haunt the sport at some point in the future, I think it's plausible that it could.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not college football, but NFL and college are heavily linked more than any other sport we study.

Of the top 32 rated television programs this fall, 31 were NFL games.  In some cases, ratings down slightly but we see that with just about everything due to further fragmentation.  They are still the 800lb gorilla and dominate.  The ratings for the bigger bowls so far have been up over last year as well.

A few tidbits from today's report:


NFL games accounted for 31 of the 32 most-viewed TV shows during the fall.

For the first time ever, an NFL game was the week's most-watched TV show in all 17 weeks of the regular season.

During the last four years, Fox has seen its four most-viewed NFL seasons on record.

For nine Sunday national windows, Fox averaged a 14.8 rating and 24.8 million viewers, making it the most-viewed program on TV and No. 1 among all key adult and male demos.

CBS averaged 17.7 million viewers for its package of regular-season games this season.

NBC's "SNF" finished the fall as the No. 1 show in primetime, and remains on pace to be the No. 1 primetime show for the entire season for the second straight year.

Despite finishing with an 8-8 record, the Cowboys remained a top draw for the NFL, with the team playing in four of the 10 most-viewed games this season.

[MerrittsMustache]

Perhaps, but players and coaches are not happy and there is plenty of claims that defensive players are pulling off the helmets in some cases.  I know in that UCLA game the coaches and players were ticked.  Franklin was killing them and all of a sudden his helmet comes off while he's on the ground.  He has to come out.  Comes in a play later, helmet is off again.  It was borderline laughable.

I'm not saying that players and coaches are happy with the rule. I'm saying that if players wore their helmets the right way, they wouldn't have to worry about them coming off from contact or by being pulled off in the pile.