Is college football doomed?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Microsoft dominated the IT world a few years back.  Did anyone conceive an end to their dominance?  They are still the big kahuna.

They no longer drive the discussion.  Will they be as important in 10 years?  Did anyone predict the demise of the BEast 10 years ago? 

These things take years to happen.  Football will not be as dominant in 10 years.  It may still be popular with alum and fans, but will not command the TV $$.  It started a few years ago when moms didn't let their sons play.  Where it goes, exactly, and how long it takes?  Who knows?

It will change.

Not sure the analogy makes sense.  Microsoft deals in the world of software and operating systems.  It is an enabler of the hardware that has been created for productivity, personal use, etc.  Others can get into the business if they wish (and they did).

Football, like many sports, is about entertainment as much as anything.  To use your analogy, what entertainment entity is going to jump in and steal their share...football's share?  It absolutely could happen, but I'm curious to hear what you might think it will be? 

And honestly, your 10 year comment about football is ALREADY wrong.  There are deals in place right now for football that carry into the next decade that far exceed everything out there.  It isn't even close. 

ESPN extended last year their NFL contract by $15.2 billion.  The contract ends in 2021.  Just one example.  CBS, NBC and Fox signed a 9 year extension last year that runs out in 2022.

The college football ones are happening now.   You can add all the other sports contracts up and combine them and they do not pass up college football and NFL. 

[Benny B]

They might be, but it is based on the reality of what people are watching.  Folks in this industry don't want to make big bets on things that they can't monetize.  There is certainly some inflation in there that is above and beyond, but the numbers tell the story.  Football is king and it isn't close....not even remotely close.

Replace "football" with "residential housing market" and throw on your I <3 Tom Crean t-shirt because you've just blasted yourself back to 2005.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Put college football games on 30-33 times a year and see how many people show up.  Guess what if they do that no one comes, because an individual game doesn't matter. 

Why do you think that most bowl games struggle to put butts in the seats.  Because the fans frankly don't care about the bowls unless it is the Rose bowl et al.

Right now much of the hype on college campuses isn't for the game itself, but the party before and after the game.  There are exceptions, see Big 10/SEC but outside of those few schools they could not care less about the outcome.

But they don't, and that's the key.  The other sports over saturate their product, make the regular season less meaningful, give half the participants playoff spots.  That's why I don't see any of them overtaking football...they have wrecked havoc on their own products with their own decisions. 

I agree with you on the college bowls, it is ridiculous...same line of thinking for NBA, NHL, etc. 

Let's be clear, when I talk about football dying I'm talking about college AND NFL.  They are linked in a big way.  The NFL's popularity pulls up college and vice versa.  We see it in every study we do.  We do not see anything close to that in basketball.  Many college basketball fans abandon the NBA and there are NBA fans that don't follow college.  The disparity between the two is amazing, especially when you overlay the fondness for football (college or NFL) by football fans.  A much stronger consumption linkage.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Replace "football" with "residential housing market" and throw on your I <3 Tom Crean t-shirt because you've just blasted yourself back to 2005.

You can throw in Glass Steagall act, gov't intervention, bad corporate policy, corporate fraud, many stupid consumers, etc as for why that happened....that doesn't have anything to do with a popularity of a sport and who will be standing in 10 or 20 years.

[mu-rara]

Not sure the analogy makes sense.  Microsoft deals in the world of software and operating systems.  It is an enabler of the hardware that has been created for productivity, personal use, etc.  Others can get into the business if they wish (and they did).  Football, like many sports, is about entertainment as much as anything.  To use your analogy, what entertainment entity is going to jump in and steal their share...football's share?  It absolutely could happen, but I'm curious to hear what you might think it will be? 
And honestly, your 10 year comment about football is ALREADY wrong.  There are deals in place right now for football that carry into the next decade that far exceed everything out there.  It isn't even close. 
ESPN extended last year their NFL contract by $15.2 billion.  The contract ends in 2021.  Just one example.  CBS, NBC and Fox signed a 9 year extension last year that runs out in 2022.
The college football ones are happening now.   You can add all the other sports contracts up and combine them and they do not pass up college football and NFL. 

I am not making a direct analogy.  Call it a situational comparison.  Few conceived that MS would be vulnerable to changes in the marketplace 10 or 15 years ago.  They fell behind in mobile and cloud technology.  They can live for years on legacy installed base, but they are not framing the debate anymore.   Not saying that the same thing will definitely happen to football, or in the same timeframe.  just pointing out that anyone whose livelihood (You?) depends on football better be looking 10,20,30 years down the road.  Be careful that you aren't using 2010 thinking when planning for 2020.

[GGGG]

I am not making a direct analogy.  Call it a situational comparison.  Few conceived that MS would be vulnerable to changes in the marketplace 10 or 15 years ago.  They fell behind in mobile and cloud technology.  They can live for years on legacy installed base, but they are not framing the debate anymore.   Not saying that the same thing will definitely happen to football, or in the same timeframe.  just pointing out that anyone whose livelihood (You?) depends on football better be looking 10,20,30 years down the road.  Be careful that you aren't using 2010 thinking when planning for 2020.

But MS world is driven by technology and innovation in a quick changing marketplace.  The sports viewing world is driven mostly by taste.  I actually don't think tastes change all that much over a ten year time frame in this marketplace...so I think these contracts are perfectly reasonable both now and in the future.  The real question is 2030 and beyond...but the contracts dont go out that far.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

You can throw in Glass Steagall act, gov't intervention, bad corporate policy, corporate fraud, many stupid consumers, etc as for why that happened....that doesn't have anything to do with a popularity of a sport and who will be standing in 10 or 20 years.

You're right. Football can NEVER FAIL.

C'mon Chicos.

Everything we know about housing now is hindsight. At the time, everybody was riding the train.

Early indicators against football? Concision research. Lawsuits. Less kids playing youth ball. Over expansion of conferences in college.

Now, I'm not saying it's going to fail, but automatically dismissing seems a bit naive.

[GGGG]

Guns, Chicos point is a good one.  These contract are about 10 years long.  Do you really think that things like concussions and less kids playing football are going to have that drastic an impact on viewing habits over the coming decade?  I seriously doubt that...

[Tugg Speedman]

Guns, Chicos point is a good one.  These contract are about 10 years long.  Do you really think that things like concussions and less kids playing football are going to have that drastic an impact on viewing habits over the coming decade?  I seriously doubt that...

It did to boxing, when people found it uncool to watch boxers die or permanently  impair themselves, they turned it off.

Ali's current condition also hurt.

[GGGG]

Again, that is not a good analogy.  Boxing was done in by PPV more than anything else.

[Benny B]

Guns, Chicos point is a good one.  These contract are about 10 years long.  Do you really think that things like concussions and less kids playing football are going to have that drastic an impact on viewing habits over the coming decade?  I seriously doubt that...

Contract length is an effect, not a cause.  If the game changes, if popularity wanes, if one of the members of your conference drops football, if ESPN or BTN is named party to an action, the contract length can instaneously go from 10 to zero.

IOW, long term contracts won't keep football where it is... keeping football where it is keeps the contracts alive.

[GGGG]

Contract length is an effect, not a cause.  If the game changes, if popularity wanes, if one of the members of your conference drops football, if ESPN or BTN is named party to an action, the contract length can instaneously go from 10 to zero.

IOW, long term contracts won't keep football where it is... keeping football where it is keeps the contracts alive.

No, my point about long term contracts is that they are not all that risky.  Tastes dont change that quickly.

[forgetful]

No, my point about long term contracts is that they are not all that risky.  Tastes dont change that quickly.

As I posted in the other link for 12-24 year olds Soccer is more popular than College Football.  That's the first generation where that is true.  The generation after them 1-12 right now, will be even more skewed away from Football.

You are right that over the next 10 years their won't be enormous change.  But others are right in that it has peaked.

The next generations (kids of those listed above) will care very little for football.  If they don't play it they won't watch it.

[Tugg Speedman]

Again, that is not a good analogy.  Boxing was done in by PPV more than anything else.

Boxing's popularity is down in all developed countries for the reasons I described above.  That suggests it is more than HBO/PPV hurting the sport.

It remains popular in the developing world, however.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Guns, Chicos point is a good one.  These contract are about 10 years long.  Do you really think that things like concussions and less kids playing football are going to have that drastic an impact on viewing habits over the coming decade?  I seriously doubt that...

#1 You keep saying "tastes don't change in 10 years". I hate to get into semantics, but that is just wrong. Tastes in music, fashion, products, technology, etc. change pretty rapidly. Now, when referencing football, that's a multi-generational institution (not so much a "taste"), so realistically, it might take a long time to evolve.

#2 Do I personally think that football will be gone in 10 years? Absolutely not. However, a few people here act like football is going to be king forever. I hate to be a naysayer, but there are no sure things in life. Football is on top right now, but we've seen the evolution of several sports in US history and popularity can change over time, and eventually that might include football.

#3 NASCAR was an extremely hot property in 2003, brands were fighting each other for sponsorships, track exposure, etc. etc. NASCAR is still successful, but I don't believe brands are backing up the brinks truck for minor sponsorships anymore.

[GGGG]

#1. Poor choice of words, but my point was that it wasn't like a technology change.

#2. It doesn't have to be king forever with these contracts...just over the next decade, which it will assuredly be.

#3. NASCAR is an interesting example.  However it really isn't a parallel. 

[Benny B]

#3. NASCAR is an interesting example.  However it really isn't a parallel. 

It absolutely is a parallel... the same audience that gives/gave NASCAR huge TV ratings is also giving college football huge TV ratings. 

[Tugg Speedman]

#3 NASCAR was an extremely hot property in 2003, brands were fighting each other for sponsorships, track exposure, etc. etc. NASCAR is still successful, but I don't believe brands are backing up the brinks truck for minor sponsorships anymore.

NASCAR grapples with a downshift in popularity
The nation's premier motor racing series has seen attendance and TV ratings plummet in the last four years. A lagging economy is certainly a factor, but some of the damage has been self-inflicted — particularly with the widely panned Car of Tomorrow.
March 21, 2011|By Jim Peltz

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/21/sports/la-sp-nascar-20110322

[snip]

But talk to people involved in NASCAR and most keep pointing back to one decisive culprit: The new race car that NASCAR mandated starting in 2007 in the Cup series turned off many drivers and fans.

NASCAR dubbed it the "Car of Tomorrow," or COT. Designed mostly for enhanced driver safety following the 2001 death of seven-time champion Dale Earnhardt Sr., the car was unlike anything seen before.

It was boxy, had a rear wing and, even in a sport where cars had little resemblance to "stock" cars on the street, this one had almost no resemblance. Worse, the COT's new chassis and steering system were temperamental to drive and hindered the passing that NASCAR fans crave.

After winning the first COT race, brash driver Kyle Busch told a national TV audience what many others in NASCAR garages were whispering. "I can't stand to drive" the new car, Busch said as he stood in Victory Lane. "They suck."

Suddenly, NASCAR had a big problem.

"If you look at something that hurt [the sport], that hurt. That car alienated a lot of fans," said driver and team owner Michael Waltrip.

NASCAR also "thought the competition [on the track] would be good enough that it wouldn't matter" what the car looked like, said Howard Comstock, Dodge's engineering program manager for NASCAR. "It did matter, it mattered a lot to the fans."

The car was part of "a disconnect" that opened between NASCAR and its fan base, agreed Julie Sobieski, a vice president at ESPN, which with its broadcast sister ABC splits the Cup series' telecasts with Fox and TNT.

In retrospect, NASCAR President Mike Helton said, "If we had that opportunity to go back . . . we would probably introduce [the car] differently," although he didn't offer specifics.

Regardless of what NASCAR thought about the car, "the perception is that it was" a big factor in NASCAR's popularity decline even if it kept drivers safer, he said.

--------------------------

My Comments Below...

10 years ago NASCAR was soaring in popularity.  Then, according to the article the 2008 recession made fans cut back on going to the track because they lacked the financial means.

But it was NASCAR responding to safety concerns,especially after Dale Earnhardt was killed, that really hurt the sport. The article says between 2007 and 2010 NASCAR TV ratings fell more thn 20%.

Isn't this what football is doing?  New concussion rules, helmet-to-helmet hit penalties/fines, banning the kick-off (Goodell said in a recent TIME magazine interview that the competition committee was looking at doing away with the kick-off as it was too dangerous.  Since he said it in this fashion means it will happen).

Seems to me that the NFL is going down the same path as NASCAR.  Why shouldn't we expect the same results?

[GGGG]

It absolutely is a parallel... the same audience that gives/gave NASCAR huge TV ratings is also giving college football huge TV ratings. 

So your theory is that these people no longer watch television?  And I have noticed you have this theory that college football is only watched by southerners...but that really isn't true.

[GGGG]

Seems to me that the NFL is going down the same path as NASCAR.  Why shouldn't we expect the same results?

Because they aren't the same sport.  NASCAR has always been a niche sport.  Football in more central to American culture.  It is a made for television sport that does extremely well.  Getting rid of kickoffs isn't going to change that.

[Tugg Speedman]

So your theory is that these people no longer watch television?  And I have noticed you have this theory that college football is only watched by southerners...but that really isn't true.

The center of college football, it's biggest fan base and best teams is the SEC conference area.  This is NASCAR same fan-base.

So yes college football is popular coast-to-coast but so is NASCAR.  But college football's heart and soul is the south, just like NASCAR

[GGGG]

The center of college football, it's biggest fan base and best teams is the SEC conference area.  This is NASCAR same fan-base.

So yes college football is popular coast-to-coast but so is NASCAR.  But college football's heart and soul is the south, just like NASCAR

I said "only watched by southerners."  I know full well the demographics of both college football and NASCAR.

[Tugg Speedman]

Because they aren't the same sport.  NASCAR has always been a niche sport.  Football in more central to American culture.  It is a made for television sport that does extremely well.  Getting rid of kickoffs isn't going to change that.

In the almost football strike and new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) last year, the NFL can expand to as many as 22 regular season games.  They are now planning on going to 18 regular season games in the next 2 or 3 years (they will also drop down to two pres-season games).

The biggest hold-up is injuries.  The NFL said they will expand the rosters by 5 to 7 players.  However, this is changes nothing.  How many of those 18 game are the Packers going to sit Clay Mathews or Aron Rodgers because it is a longer season?  Answer, zero.  So, by the playoffs you will see even more starters not playing.  So, you will still have those two pre-season games, they will be the playoffs with the quality of players that are left.

Additionally, the NFL is considering expanding the playoffs and the Superbowl might not be played until March (still under discussion under the CBA).  So even more games.

The Players union wants to players to get more money, everyone's contract gets a 25% raise because of the longer season.  To offset this, the owners will make the game "safer" so they get a better return on investment (more starters on the field).

Devalue the meaning of the regular season, everyone gets into the playoffs, make the season 8 months and change the game so few players get hurt.

I would argue one of the easiest predictions I have ever made is football is peaking in popularity now and will start declining in the coming years (again, peaking and decline will take years).  I don't feel I have to explain myself.  Instead those that think football is immune from the natural cycles, owners greed and a 25 game season to get to through the Superbowl, and make it safe so all the starters that gets huge contracts can suit up every week are those that have to explain.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

#1. Poor choice of words, but my point was that it wasn't like a technology change.

#2. It doesn't have to be king forever with these contracts...just over the next decade, which it will assuredly be.

#3. NASCAR is an interesting example.  However it really isn't a parallel. 

I agree that for the next decade, football is going to be top dog.

However, I can also see some chinks in the armor, so I don't think it's invincible. In the long run (maybe this isn't what this debate is about?), I can see a scenario where it loses some popularity and/or networks simply won't pay the premium prices for broadcast rights.

That probably won't happen in a 10 year cycle (contracts and whatnot), but my point was/is that football is NOT invincible.

[BallBoy]

In the almost football strike and new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) last year, the NFL can expand to as many as 22 regular season games.  They are now planning on going to 18 regular season games in the next 2 or 3 years (they will also drop down to two pres-season games).

The biggest hold-up is injuries.  The NFL said they will expand the rosters by 5 to 7 players.  However, this is changes nothing.  How many of those 18 game are the Packers going to sit Clay Mathews or Aron Rodgers because it is a longer season?  Answer, zero.  So, by the playoffs you will see even more starters not playing.  So, you will still have those two pre-season games, they will be the playoffs with the quality of players that are left.

Additionally, the NFL is considering expanding the playoffs and the Superbowl might not be played until March (still under discussion under the CBA).  So even more games.

The Players union wants to players to get more money, everyone's contract gets a 25% raise because of the longer season.  To offset this, the owners will make the game "safer" so they get a better return on investment (more starters on the field).

Devalue the meaning of the regular season, everyone gets into the playoffs, make the season 8 months and change the game so few players get hurt.

I would argue one of the easiest predictions I have ever made is football is peaking in popularity now and will start declining in the coming years (again, peaking and decline will take years).  I don't feel I have to explain myself.  Instead those that think football is immune from the natural cycles, owners greed and a 25 game season to get to through the Superbowl, and make it safe so all the starters that gets huge contracts can suit up every week are those that have to explain.

Another, I guess baseball is doomed as well. The whole football discussion started with Junior suicide.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8774575/ryan-freel-dies-apparent-suicide

My opinion on the matter is that football won't be king forever but it is going to be a long time before it falls and it isn't going to impact MU's current situation nor is it going to impact the C7 contract discussions so why talk about its fall as it is going to happen anytime soon.  Based on people in the know it is 10 yrs away minimally but more realistically iris 20-30yr