Is college football doomed?

[BallBoy]

With the ten page forum on how college football was doomed from a few weeks ago, I thought this was a very interesting article for those who think it is and injuries or realignment would be the cause. 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20121221/college-football-apocalypse/?sct=hp_t11_a3&eref=sihp&hpt=hp_t3

[ChicosBailBonds]

Amen.  The talk is silly, it is going nowhere.  There is so much money, so much passion, etc....it simply isn't going anywhere.

[GOO]

I think it is peaking and will decline. Implode, no. Is it at its peak, I think so.

[GGGG]

I think it is peaking and will decline. Implode, no. Is it at its peak, I think so.

There is very little evidence to suggest this is the case.  I mentioned this in another thread, but I don't think Marquette fans have a full appreciation for the popularity of college football. 

[🏀]

There is very little evidence to suggest this is the case.  I mentioned this in another thread, but I don't think Marquette fans have a full appreciation for the popularity of college football.  

Yeah, talk to people that went to football schools.

I have a friend that went to a small school in the Quad Cities. Since then he was worked at Kentucky and now Michigan. Even with Kentucky sucking at football, it still has a major impact with their fans.

His mind was blown seeing the Kentucky football games and their operations.

[Tugg Speedman]

As in the other thread, I think it is peaking now too.  

Yes you can find find quotes in the past about safety but now we have a lot of credible people calling for changes or the sport being banned (see the other thread for numerous examples).  This many people all at the same time calling for it to be banned or significantly changed is new.  In the past it was always a lone voice here or there.

And, what is also new is the NFL is taking these calls seriously.  They started USA football, funding concussion research, and changing the rules of the game.  They are about to do away with the kick-off, as Goodall said in a recent TIME magazine interview.

The NFL sees the writing on the wall and they will change the game to make it safe.  That will cause its popularity to decrease.

Again, I think it slides in popurity to something like the popularity of MLB over a period of many years.  But the high is now.

[GGGG]

Again, no evidence to suggest that safety concerns is causing a decline in football popularity.  None.

[ChicosBailBonds]

There is very little evidence to suggest this is the case.  I mentioned this in another thread, but I don't think Marquette fans have a full appreciation for the popularity of college football. 

Exactly right.  We can't fill an 19000 seat arena 90% of the time when there are many schools that easily get 50K or more to a football game.  I realize they are different sports, different size venues, etc, but the money about to be unloaded for additional football coverage is going to blow some people away.  We are neck deep in some of it.  BLOW PEOPLE AWAY.  Money talks.

[jesmu84]

Exactly right.  We can't fill an 19000 seat arena 90% of the time when there are many schools that easily get 50K or more to a football game.  I realize they are different sports, different size venues, etc, but the money about to be unloaded for additional football coverage is going to blow some people away.  We are neck deep in some of it.  BLOW PEOPLE AWAY.  Money talks.

are they overpaying though? is there going to a sports/media "bubble"?

[jesmu84]

Again, no evidence to suggest that safety concerns is causing a decline in football popularity.  None.

no. but could the safety concerns change the game of football enough that it would eventually cause a decline in popularity?

as chicos said, money talks. what a sad commentary that changes to something because of safety/health problems only come about due to threat of a lawsuit.

[Tugg Speedman]

no. but could the safety concerns change the game of football enough that it would eventually cause a decline in popularity?

as chicos said, money talks. what a sad commentary that changes to something because of safety/health problems only come about due to threat of a lawsuit.

+1

No one is saying football is declining now.  The question is what does it do next.  The guess is it declines.

[Benny B]

Again, no evidence to suggest that safety concerns is causing a decline in football popularity.  None.

Great point, but there's also no evidence to suggest the opposite either.

[mu-rara]

Microsoft dominated the IT world a few years back.  Did anyone conceive an end to their dominance?  They are still the big kahuna.

They no longer drive the discussion.  Will they be as important in 10 years?  Did anyone predict the demise of the BEast 10 years ago? 

These things take years to happen.  Football will not be as dominant in 10 years.  It may still be popular with alum and fans, but will not command the TV $$.  It started a few years ago when moms didn't let their sons play.  Where it goes, exactly, and how long it takes?  Who knows?

It will change.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

The idea that it's invincible is silly.

It's an entertainment product that people have a TON of passion for. However, that passion can be turned off and/or redirected if people find an alternative.

Examples: Tennis, Baseball, and more recently Nascar. In about 2003, Nascar was the hottest sports property going. 10 years later, it's still successful, but not nearly the $ generator it once was.

Products, entertainment, music, fashion... they all have a life cycle.

Football is definitely on the upper end of it's cycle. It might be a long time before it comes back down, but it's not invincible.

[forgetful]

Exactly right.  We can't fill an 19000 seat arena 90% of the time when there are many schools that easily get 50K or more to a football game.  I realize they are different sports, different size venues, etc, but the money about to be unloaded for additional football coverage is going to blow some people away.  We are neck deep in some of it.  BLOW PEOPLE AWAY.  Money talks.

Put college football games on 30-33 times a year and see how many people show up.  Guess what if they do that no one comes, because an individual game doesn't matter. 

Why do you think that most bowl games struggle to put butts in the seats.  Because the fans frankly don't care about the bowls unless it is the Rose bowl et al.

Right now much of the hype on college campuses isn't for the game itself, but the party before and after the game.  There are exceptions, see Big 10/SEC but outside of those few schools they could not care less about the outcome.

[Aughnanure]

Amen.  The talk is silly, it is going nowhere.  There is so much money, so much passion, etc....it simply isn't going anywhere.

Agreed. It may have reached its "peak" and may decline some (Odue to competition from other sports) but it'll still  be the #1 sport for a long, long time. It's just too built-in.

[brandx]

Again, no evidence to suggest that safety concerns is causing a decline in football popularity.  None.

I agree - for now. But it is on issue that will start at lower levels and work its way up.

And college football's decision to ignore the safety issues, i think, will have an effect within just a few years.

[Tugg Speedman]

I agree - for now. But it is on issue that will start at lower levels and work its way up.

+1

If the NFL loses the concussion lawsuit, insurance rates skyrocket and it kills peewee and high school football.

[brandx]

+1

If the NFL loses the concussion lawsuit, insurance rates skyrocket and it kills peewee and high school football.

And most of the recent studies are suggesting that it is not that a player sustains 2 or 3 or 4 concussions that does the real long term damage. It is the accumulative effect of thousands of blows to the head in practices throughout their careers. (Which is why you don't see older QBs having a lot of issues later in life since they usually don't get hit in practice).

And... the NCAA has repeatedly fought against reducing the number of full contact practices.

[THRILLHO]

Again, no evidence to suggest that safety concerns is causing a decline in football popularity.  None.

This article (http://www.startribune.com/sports/165004946.html) says "The statistics are similar nationally. Overall football participation for all age groups decreased from 10.1 million in 2006 to 9 million in 2011."

Very preliminary evidence, sure, but I think most here are arguing that football is at or slightly past peak popularity, which is still incredibly popular!  And will be for the next decade at least! A trend of declining participation would probably not immediately manifest as lower viewership numbers.  But middle- and upper-class parents will start having their children play other sports, fewer children will grow up loving football, and many parents will probably learn to enjoy the sports their children play more than they would otherwise.  This is a slow moving process.  And this is extremely early and there are only a few data points that might just be noise.  But the logic seems eminently reasonable -- if I had children today I would DEFINITELY keep them from playing organized football, knowing what we know today about the link with brain injury. 

The response I keep reading is, "But you don't understand how popular college football is!"  Ok, I do understand it, it's very popular.  And, acknowledging that the evidence in the linked article is preliminary and subject to interpretation, I'm wondering if there's a particular part of the logic of declining football popularity that people object to?  Will people not care about their children's potential brain injuries?  Will children who grow up playing other sports still prefer watching football in the same numbers as now?

[forgetful]

This article (http://www.startribune.com/sports/165004946.html) says "The statistics are similar nationally. Overall football participation for all age groups decreased from 10.1 million in 2006 to 9 million in 2011."

Very preliminary evidence, sure, but I think most here are arguing that football is at or slightly past peak popularity, which is still incredibly popular!  And will be for the next decade at least! A trend of declining participation would probably not immediately manifest as lower viewership numbers.  But middle- and upper-class parents will start having their children play other sports, fewer children will grow up loving football, and many parents will probably learn to enjoy the sports their children play more than they would otherwise.  This is a slow moving process.  And this is extremely early and there are only a few data points that might just be noise.  But the logic seems eminently reasonable -- if I had children today I would DEFINITELY keep them from playing organized football, knowing what we know today about the link with brain injury. 

The response I keep reading is, "But you don't understand how popular college football is!"  Ok, I do understand it, it's very popular.  And, acknowledging that the evidence in the linked article is preliminary and subject to interpretation, I'm wondering if there's a particular part of the logic of declining football popularity that people object to?  Will people not care about their children's potential brain injuries?  Will children who grow up playing other sports still prefer watching football in the same numbers as now?

I live in the South where football is king and most of the people I know with kids (who are football fans) say they won't let their kid play football. 

[IrwinFletcher]

Even with the recent and highly publicized discussions on concussions, I am amazed at how many people are still ignorant on any of this.

I have talked with parents who have kids who play football at our HS and they haven't heard anything at all regarding concussions, the possible effects and how damage to the brain can occur.

Once this becomes more mainstream, you will see a decline in participation and the young age groups.

[GGGG]

Just because parents won't let their youth play, doesn't mean they won't tune in on Saturdays and Sundays.

[Benny B]

Just because parents won't let their youth play, doesn't mean they won't tune in on Saturdays and Sundays.

Don't worry, nature will take care of the baby boomers eventually.  Not sure that Nielsen or TV advertisers care what's being shown on TV in the dementia ward.

[ChicosBailBonds]

are they overpaying though? is there going to a sports/media "bubble"?

They might be, but it is based on the reality of what people are watching.  Folks in this industry don't want to make big bets on things that they can't monetize.  There is certainly some inflation in there that is above and beyond, but the numbers tell the story.  Football is king and it isn't close....not even remotely close.