Concerned...

[NersEllenson]

It was alluded to in the Wisconsin/Florida thread - that we too have fundamental issues at key spots this year.  I tend to agree.  I was bullish on this year's MU team prior to Mayo's issues.  Combine Todd's absence with what we've seen of of our point/shooting guard situation - it is concerning. 

Teams are going to pack it in and realize Gardner is our only consistent scoring threat - and they won't double off of Jake Thomas when he's in the game.  Teams are going to make Vander and Junior beat them (hit shots)....hopefully they can.  I'm more confident in Jamil Wilson being the wildcard (perhaps even Juan Anderson), as 2 players who can score/capitalize on the double teams Gardner will force.

If Junior and Blue can hit shots, we'll be Sweet 16/Elite 8 good.  If not...a bubble team..unless Buzz can pull a rabbit out of his hit as he did with the midget team of 2009.

[Hards Alumni]

It was alluded to in the Wisconsin/Florida thread - that we too have fundamental issues at key spots this year.  I tend to agree.  I was bullish on this year's MU team prior to Mayo's issues.  Combine Todd's absence with what we've seen of of our point/shooting guard situation - it is concerning.  

Teams are going to pack it in and realize Gardner is our only consistent scoring threat - and they won't double off of Jake Thomas when he's in the game.  Teams are going to make Vander and Junior beat them (hit shots)....hopefully they can.  I'm more confident in Jamil Wilson being the wildcard (perhaps even Juan Anderson), as 2 players who can score/capitalize on the double teams Gardner will force.

If Junior and Blue can hit shots, we'll be Sweet 16/Elite 8 good.  If not...a bubble team..unless Buzz can pull a rabbit out of his hit as he did with the midget team of 2009.

I mostly agree, but I'm not sure that Mayo's absence really changes much.  This team will need to score a lot in transition... Our half court game is pretty bad from what we've seen so far*

*which isn't much

edit: also, I'm not sure we have a change to go to the elite 8 unless we get a really favorable bracket.  I think we are more in the round of 32/sweet 16 level.

[Goose]

Hards

I agree. We need transition points and we have enough athletic players to create opportunities. I really hope we tighten up the D and see what happens. As tough as Gardner can be I think he is too big of liability on D.

[Abode4life]

Teams are going to pack it in and realize Gardner is our only consistent scoring threat - and they won't double off of Jake Thomas when he's in the game.  Teams are going to make Vander and Junior beat them (hit shots)....hopefully they can.  I'm more confident in Jamil Wilson being the wildcard (perhaps even Juan Anderson), as 2 players who can score/capitalize on the double teams Gardner will force.

I also noticed in the first two games that whoever would feed Gardner from the wing, would then float to the top of the key and/or cut to the lane.  That's fine to try and get a dish on the cut, but once teams really start doubling and tripling Gardner, someone needs to move over to the wing for the Kick-out and open shot.

[BallBoy]

This post could have been pulled from any season from 2000-2012.  There is always going to be going to be some deficiency in the team.  What we learned in all the other seasons is that it is early and there is rust.  Buzz plays with his line-ups.  Someone has always stepped up.  If we are going into December and someone hasn't stepped up then we can worry.  Right now, we are two games into the season.  

Neither Vander nor Junior are completely inept at shooting outside.  They have just put up bad shots.  Players and teams adjust.  If a team packs the middle on Gardner than the outside players have less contested shots.  Less contested shots equal a higher percentage.  Sagging on Gardner allows Vander to be closer to the basket.  Sagging on Gardner requires a greater shift on defense which means someone will be out of position.  

Again, the team in the first two games isn't going to be the same team in Jan, Feb, Mar.  The players will get into the offensive flow, certain players will fall out of the rotation, and there is more consistency.

[NersEllenson]

I also noticed in the first two games that whoever would feed Gardner from the wing, would then float to the top of the key and/or cut to the lane.  That's fine to try and get a dish on the cut, but once teams really start doubling and tripling Gardner, someone needs to move over to the wing for the Kick-out and open shot.

The bolded action you describe above is to try to make it difficult to double Gardner...as MU is trying to create as much space for Gardner to operate as possible - if you rotate a player to the wing/ball side - it is easier for that defender to dig down on Gardner...but there certainly are opportunities for MU to do that on occasion and get a 3.

[GGGG]

Buzz always has MU playing better when the BE season rolls around.  As great as last season was, remember how this board nearly exploded after loses to LSU and Vandy?  (The last one a blow out at home?)  It's a marathon...not a sprint....and we might very well lose a couple of times in Maui.  But I think Buzz will figure things out by the time the BE season starts rolling.

[GGGG]

The bolded action you describe above is to try to make it difficult to double Gardner...as MU is trying to create as much space for Gardner to operate as possible - if you rotate a player to the wing/ball side - it is easier for that defender to dig down on Gardner...but there certainly are opportunities for MU to do that on occasion and get a 3.

Exactly.  The problem was that the double teams were coming from the other side of the floor and not from the top because they didn't want to leave Jake open.  So now everything is clogged and Davante can't do anything.  Better to get Jake out of there to allow Davante some room to operate.

[brewcity77]

I think this team, like the 2009-10 team that repeatedly came close against top-10 teams while not having a regular rotation player over 6'7" and the 2010-11 team that sputtered to a .500 Big East record before reaching the Big East semis and the Sweet 16, is a team that will not be playing their best until February or March.

First of all, this is a tremendously small sample size to get concerned over. I know that it only takes 1 bad game for this board to go into Sky Is Falling Mode (hereafter Skyfall) but this is massive overreaction early on.

For some guys, it's status quo. Junior is still the starting PG, and he's been pretty darn good. Averaging 4 apg, only 1 turnover, and hitting 40% from three while also increasing his scoring average. Yes, we all want the shooting inside the arc to improve, but over the course of the season those will start to fall. Davante has the same role and has excelled inside offensively while continuing to struggle defensively. He's getting the praise for leading the team in scoring, but is mostly just doing what he's done in the past. Chris is expected to be the space-eater, and has added a few more points than expected. Juan was expected to be an energy guy, just like last year, and he's done that while also hitting a few shots.

Look at how different the roles are for the other guys. Jamil is expected to be the man, something he's never had to do before, but something he's clearly talented enough to become. Lockett is expected to play more of a team role than he did at ASU because we are so much more talented. While the scoring isn't there yet, his rebounding, defense, and hustle is all evident. For Thomas and Taylor, this is a huge jump up.

In addition, this is a team that might be better suited playing a little slower, but they are pushing the tempo just as much as last year's team did. Buzz'll figure this out. The team will figure it out. They might not be perfect now, but I think come February, this is going to be a very good team. I honestly think this might be the best team Buzz has ever coached.

We'll know a lot more after Maui. We'll know tons more after December 8th. I think there's a decent chance we could walk out of the BC that night 7-1, but also a (fairly slim) chance we could be 4-4. Until then, I'm not going to start panicking.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I think Thomas is getting minutes for just that reason: when DG gets double-triple teamed we have another shooter on the floor. Better he gets the rythm now

[Aughnanure]

It was alluded to in the Wisconsin/Florida thread - that we too have fundamental issues at key spots this year.  I tend to agree.  I was bullish on this year's MU team prior to Mayo's issues.  Combine Todd's absence with what we've seen of of our point/shooting guard situation - it is concerning. 

Teams are going to pack it in and realize Gardner is our only consistent scoring threat - and they won't double off of Jake Thomas when he's in the game.  Teams are going to make Vander and Junior beat them (hit shots)....hopefully they can.  I'm more confident in Jamil Wilson being the wildcard (perhaps even Juan Anderson), as 2 players who can score/capitalize on the double teams Gardner will force.

If Junior and Blue can hit shots, we'll be Sweet 16/Elite 8 good.  If not...a bubble team..unless Buzz can pull a rabbit out of his hit as he did with the midget team of 2009.

He won't. This team will need Wilson, Gardner and Lockett to be the scorers.

[Abode4life]

Exactly.  The problem was that the double teams were coming from the other side of the floor and not from the top because they didn't want to leave Jake open.  So now everything is clogged and Davante can't do anything.  Better to get Jake out of there to allow Davante some room to operate.

The problem with getting out of there (i.e. move to the opposite side of the floor), without having someone rotate back to the wing, is that Davante's back will be to them.  And if we have 4 guys on the opposite side bunched together to give DG as much space as possible, it only takes 2 defenders to guard them.  Then the opposite defenders are able to double and triple team, with no easy kick-out for Davante.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

It was alluded to in the Wisconsin/Florida thread - that we too have fundamental issues at key spots this year.  I tend to agree.  I was bullish on this year's MU team prior to Mayo's issues.  Combine Todd's absence with what we've seen of of our point/shooting guard situation - it is concerning.  

Teams are going to pack it in and realize Gardner is our only consistent scoring threat - and they won't double off of Jake Thomas when he's in the game.  Teams are going to make Vander and Junior beat them (hit shots)....hopefully they can.  I'm more confident in Jamil Wilson being the wildcard (perhaps even Juan Anderson), as 2 players who can score/capitalize on the double teams Gardner will force.

If Junior and Blue can hit shots, we'll be Sweet 16/Elite 8 good.  If not...a bubble team..unless Buzz can pull a rabbit out of his hit as he did with the midget team of 2009.

I agree with your overall concern, but I think it's an issue with or without Mayo. DJO and Jae took and made a TON of 3's last year.

MU has some guys with decent percentages (Jamil, Trent, Mayo, Jake), but none of those guys have made as many as DJO and Jae did last year. I think they have the ability, but their volume is going to have to increase, which can sometimes lead to inefficiency.

If not, MU's post men with get doubled every time, and Junior will drive and kick the ball to another guy who simply drives it right back in.

MU actually has similar issue 2 years ago. Drive. Kick. Repeat.

[NersEllenson]

I agree with your overall concern, but I think it's an issue with or without Mayo. DJO and Jae took and made a TON of 3's last year.

MU has some guys with decent percentages (Jamil, Trent, Mayo, Jake), but none of those guys have made as many as DJO and Jae did last year. I think they have the ability, but their volume is going to have to increase, which can sometimes lead to inefficiency.

If not, MU's post men with get doubled every time, and Junior will drive and kick the ball to another guy who simply drives it right back in.

MU actually has similar issue 2 years ago. Drive. Kick. Repeat.

I'd say the issue is magnified/amplified without Mayo - Mayo had a mid season funk last year, but he was lights out in the non-conference portion of schedule and pretty much single handidly got MU the win at Wisconsin - Bo Ryan was rotating every one of his defenders to Mayo to see who could best keep him in check.  Then we saw Mayo contribute a ton in the NCAA games.  He definitely was going to be our best returning scoring guard..with regard to scoring and 3 point shooting.  So, I'd say it is a pretty big loss...no?  Mayo likely would have gotten/taken a lot of those 3-balls Jae and DJO took last year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'd say the issue is magnified/amplified without Mayo - Mayo had a mid season funk last year, but he was lights out in the non-conference portion of schedule and pretty much single handidly got MU the win at Wisconsin - Bo Ryan was rotating every one of his defenders to Mayo to see who could best keep him in check.  Then we saw Mayo contribute a ton in the NCAA games.  He definitely was going to be our best returning scoring guard..with regard to scoring and 3 point shooting.  So, I'd say it is a pretty big loss...no?  Mayo likely would have gotten/taken a lot of those 3-balls Jae and DJO took last year.

Certainly Mayo would help, no doubt. But, my concern over usage and volume of shots is still an issue. A handful of guys have decent %'s, but they haven't shot the volume of the guys from last year. The start of this year is going to be an evolution as guys are depended upon more and more.

Also, you keep pointing at one game or one portion of the season for Mayo, but we could cherry pick stuff like that for every player to illustrate how good he could be. Doesn't mean that player can perform like that consistently. Jamil, Vander and Junior are all examples of this.

I'm not dismissing Mayo, I just think he's another possible band-aid, not a cure-all for MU's shooting.

MU's offense is going to have to score by committee. That could make them dangerous in March, but right now it might be a little ugly to watch (we have only seen 2 games, so who knows?)

[Goose]

Guns


What is your position on Mayo being out? Do we miss him or not?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Guns


What is your position on Mayo being out? Do we miss him or not?

Yes, we miss him, but I don't think he's the elixir that some people may think.

You are looking at a college soph. that has shot a total of 93 3pters and made 33.

It's going to be challenging for him (just like Jamil, Jake and Trent) to take and make enough 3's to keep the floor spread.

[96warrior]

Buzz always has MU playing better when the BE season rolls around.  As great as last season was, remember how this board nearly exploded after loses to LSU and Vandy?  (The last one a blow out at home?)  It's a marathon...not a sprint....and we might very well lose a couple of times in Maui.  But I think Buzz will figure things out by the time the BE season starts rolling.

Those were ugly games for sure but the reaction to those were absurd. We had a very cohesive team from game one last year, right up until Otule went out. LSU and Vandy happened as the team was trying to regroup after a critical component was suddenly gone. We bounced back from that pretty well, but it took some time.

I have no concerns about this team two games in. There's a lot of raw talent that hasn't been focused yet and there are a lot of new pieces this year that haven't gotten the chemistry down yet, but there's lots of time to get there before conference play.

[NersEllenson]

Yes, we miss him, but I don't think he's the elixir that some people may think.

You are looking at a college soph. that has shot a total of 93 3pters and made 33.

It's going to be challenging for him (just like Jamil, Jake and Trent) to take and make enough 3's to keep the floor spread.

Have to disagree here Guns - The more a player is on the court, the better their rhythm, flow, and generally shooting percentage.  I was very excited to see Todd get a significant increase in shots this year with DJO and Crowder gone - as in my view - Todd is a better shooter than DJO, and has more offensive versatility than DJO had.  Mayo is a smooth player, oozing with potential.  Sure hope he finds a way to make it at MU - but I guess it is pointless to lament/debate his absence as we won't ever know unless he returns.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Have to disagree here Guns - The more a player is on the court, the better their rhythm, flow, and generally shooting percentage.  I was very excited to see Todd get a significant increase in shots this year with DJO and Crowder gone - as in my view - Todd is a better shooter than DJO, and has more offensive versatility than DJO had.  Mayo is a smooth player, oozing with potential.  Sure hope he finds a way to make it at MU - but I guess it is pointless to lament/debate his absence as we won't ever know unless he returns.

Yea, I'm just not seeing what you are seeing with Todd. I actually hope you are right, because if you are, MU is going to make a deep run in the tourny.

As far as rhythm, flow, etc., that's true to a point. But, when a player is asked to go well above his normal usage rate, he usually becomes inefficient. I believe Henry Sugar normally covers that topic.

I think MU's guards have talent, but they are being asked to up their usage rate a good deal, and I think that is going to lead to some growing pains and inefficiency (at least early in the season).

[brewcity77]

As good as Todd was at times, he was also very bad at times. His offensive efficiency was barely higher than Vander's was. It's not like the addition of Mayo would have us beating Southeastern Louisiana by 30 instead of 11. Hopefully he gets his affairs in order and gets back by mid-season, but it's probably better to assume he won't be here all year. Which may hurt now, but in the long run, will probably be good for the rest of the team's development.

[Aughnanure]

As good as Todd was at times, he was also very bad at times. His offensive efficiency was barely higher than Vander's was. It's not like the addition of Mayo would have us beating Southeastern Louisiana by 30 instead of 11. Hopefully he gets his affairs in order and gets back by mid-season, but it's probably better to assume he won't be here all year. Which may hurt now, but in the long run, will probably be good for the rest of the team's development.

He was a freshman though (albeit, an old one). But he showed much more in the first half of last year offensively than Vander ever has. But he ran into the freshman wall, his legs got tired, his shooting went down.

Is he the magic elixir? Probably not, but we are certainly missing his offensive threat - especially since none of our guards have really shown that ability yet.

[brewcity77]

He was a freshman though (albeit, an old one). But he showed much more in the first half of last year offensively than Vander ever has. But he ran into the freshman wall, his legs got tired, his shooting went down.

Is he the magic elixir? Probably not, but we are certainly missing his offensive threat - especially since none of our guards have really shown that ability yet.

That's the thing...no, he didn't. Let's compare the first 15 games of both guys careers:

Todd Mayo

10.2 ppg (High 22)
2.7 rpg (High 5)
1.3 apg (High 4)
0.5 spg (High 2)
21.2 mpg
43.6 FG%
37.5 3P%
76.7 FT%

Vander Blue

9.7 ppg (High 21)
3.7 rpg (High 9)
2.8 apg (High 6)
1.7 spg (High 4)
24.5 mpg
49.1 FG%
23.5 3P%
66.0 FT%

Those numbers are very similar. Slight edge to Todd in ppg, better from three and the stripe, but Vander has a big edge in rebounding, assists, steals, and overall field goal percentage. I know there's this narrative that Vander sucks and always has, and I hate to destroy that absurd lie for you (okay, no I don't) but both his career and Todd's started off pretty darn similar.

And for what it's worth, by including the first two Big East games, Todd's scoring average went up while Vander's went down. If you go strictly by the freshman non-conference season, Vander actually outscored Todd by 7 points.

[NersEllenson]

That's the thing...no, he didn't. Let's compare the first 15 games of both guys careers:

Todd Mayo

10.2 ppg (High 22)
2.7 rpg (High 5)
1.3 apg (High 4)
0.5 spg (High 2)
21.2 mpg
43.6 FG%
37.5 3P%
76.7 FT%

Vander Blue

9.7 ppg (High 21)
3.7 rpg (High 9)
2.8 apg (High 6)
1.7 spg (High 4)
24.5 mpg
49.1 FG%
23.5 3P%
66.0 FT%

Those numbers are very similar. Slight edge to Todd in ppg, better from three and the stripe, but Vander has a big edge in rebounding, assists, steals, and overall field goal percentage. I know there's this narrative that Vander sucks and always has, and I hate to destroy that absurd lie for you (okay, no I don't) but both his career and Todd's started off pretty darn similar.

And for what it's worth, by including the first two Big East games, Todd's scoring average went up while Vander's went down. If you go strictly by the freshman non-conference season, Vander actually outscored Todd by 7 points.

And you failed to compare Vander's freshman year Big East campaign to Mayos...we can also look at last year's NCAA tourney (3 games):

Vander:  5 of 22 shooting for 16 points with 16 rebounds and 1 steal.  Mayo: 9 of 20 shooting for 29 points, 16 rebounds, 6 steals

[brewcity77]

And you failed to compare Vander's freshman year Big East campaign to Mayos...

Can you read?

But he showed much more in the first half of last year offensively than Vander ever has.

I put up a direct response to Aughnanure's post. A direct response proving it as a complete fallacy.