[Cracked Sidewalks] Can MU beat Butler to give Gardner a chance to repeat dominance of UNC?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Can MU beat Butler to give Gardner a chance to repeat dominance of UNC?

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

In the CrackedSidewalks preseason preview I was the only one to pick a Marquette upset of UNC Tuesday on ESPN at 7 p.m. in the Maui Classic.  As a freshman, Davante Gardner torched UNC for 16 points in 18 minutes on an incredible 6 of 9 shooting and 4 of 5 from the line to go along with 6 rebounds.

"Butler is a huge game, as a loss could make MU a bubble team worried about Selection Sunday"

While Gardner dominated UNC as a freshman, Value Add projects him as the top player on a very balanced MU team this year and projects UNC as being (relatively) down for a year before being a contender again in 2014.  So UNC seems ripe, even though in two previous meetings, Williams built leads of 42 points (Kansas 2003) and 31 points (UNC 2011) vs. MU.
However, now MU needs to win its first big game of the year Monday at 2:30 CT against Butler Monday to even get that chance.  Butler is a huge game, as a loss could make MU a bubble team worried about Selection Sunday, but a solid win could indicate MU is incorporating all of the new roles and is worried more about what seed it will be with a chance to make a statement against Roy Williams.  
When I picked MU to easily beat Butler and then stun UNC, I considered MU the 25th best team in the country based on Value Add.  Since then, Todd Mayo was ruled ineligible dropping MU from 25th to 34th in the Value Add projections â€" thus projecting a MU as a first round LOSER in the NCAA tournament.  Then a weak performance against Southeastern Louisiana dropped MU all the way to 41st in www.kenpom.com, and made MU only a 3-point favorite Monday against Butler, despite Butler dropping to 79th in www.kenpom.com after their 15-point loss to Xavier.

An upset against Butler could be a neutral court loss to a Non-top 50 team come Selection Sunday, and would saddle MUs RPI with the record of consolation opponent Mississippi State (132nd in Value Add) on Tuesday at 1:30 on ESPN2, rather than a “nothing to lose” chance at UNC Tuesday at 7 on ESPN.

So while I do believe UNC is vulnerable early this year, the Butler game is a huge game for MU.

BUTLER PREVIEW

At the beginning of the season Value Add rated Butler as the 89th best team in the country, 10 spots below where www.kenpom.com has them now.  Value Add identified just two Butler players as legitimate BCS-level starters in Rotnei Clark and Andrew Smith, and rated Khyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones as strong BCS-level bench players.  Those four have performed about where expected through two games, but the surprise has been freshman Kellen Durham who was rated just outside the top 1000 (top 25% of all players) but has scored 14.5 points per game on 4 of 11 treys.  In order of preseason Value Add, here are how the top players have performed:

268. Rotnei Clarke, 6-foot-0 SR, preseason 268thbest player, 14 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists per game381. Andrew Smith, 6-foot-11 SR, 381st, 4.5 points, 8 rebounds per game468. Khyle Marshall, 6-foot-6 JR, 468th, 10.5 points, 4 rebounds per game673. Roosevelt Jones, 6-foot-4 SO, 673rd, 4.5 points, 3 rebounds per game1007. Kellen Durham (6-foot-6), who has averaged 14.5 points per game largely due to hitting 4 of 11 treys.

We know Brad Stevens gets more out of his teams than the sum of its parts, so only being a projected 3-point favorite is a big concern.  Being upset on a neutral court by Butler would clearly signal that Marquette is a bubble team.  However, with an entire roster of top 1000 players, a solid MU win could show the team was just still making some adjustments to playing.

There are encouraging signs with the new papers shoring up the defensive boards, and the balance looking very good.  With two games under their belts, Monday is MUs first fork in the road to either take the overall play to another level to take care of Butler give Davante another shot at UNC, or take the other fork which may well lead to a nervous Selection Sunday to keep the streak of invites alive.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/11/can-mu-beat-butler-to-give-gardner.html

[The Equalizer]

As to Gardner "dominating" UNC, I'm going to suggest that some of his success might have more to do with UNC letting up on the gas after MU spotted them a 30 point lead.  12 of Gardner's 16 points came in the 2nd half after the score reached 46-16. 

If he's going to dominate, I want to see his points contribute to building a lead.

[bamamarquettefan]

Agree on your second point, but I believe Williams (like coach k on gardner's injury-shortened appearance vs duke) said unc had absolutely no answer on their roster for Gardner. Being at the game, the unc bigs were throwing their arms up repeatedly in an apparent "what can I do?" so while the game was out of reach I believe there was a lot of personal pride in their attempts to stop him.

So while you raise a legit point in your first paragraph I don't completely agree.

However we are in complete agreement on your 2nd point - let's get him in early if we get to unc and take our shot.

[brewcity77]

Add me to the camp of not putting much stock in Davante's impact against UNC. That game was over at halftime. I think he could have a legitimate impact on this game. They don't have anyone defensively that can stop him. However, there will be times he has to pass out of the double-team, and when he does, the rest of the team will have to make shots.

Otule could also have an offensive field day with UNC. The only legitimate big man on their roster is freshman Joel James. He'll be fine eventually, but isn't there yet. If our wings can hit 40% of their shots, I think we win.

[GGGG]

This is not a good Butler team.  They got crushed at Xavier over the weekend, and simply had trouble putting the ball in the basket.  Marquette should win this game, I don't care how bad they looked on Tuesday.  Butler has some size, but I feel better against that type of team this year than I would have in years past.  Tempo will be very important for MU in this game.

[T-Bone]

This is not a good Butler team.  They got crushed at Xavier over the weekend,

A Xavier team that lost their top 3 scorers, top rebounder, top assist-man, top blocker, and their top stealer.

I think we'll be fine against Butler.

[UticaBusBarn]

It is a bit odd how Gardner is treated on this board. It appears that almost everyone likes him. Yet, it seems, like Rodney Dangerfield, he gets little respect.

Actually, despite being is a 30 point hole, the Warriors not only clawed back, but where closing fast ... until they were trown a hook on the four point play. They were closing fast because of the Big Guy ... to the point that Williams called a time out to try and figure how to stop Gardner.

Putting that game aside, putting aside offensive efficiency, putting aside valude added, just think of Georgetown at home game game and how Gardner (on one leg) went on one of his runs in the second half. More importantly think of Murray State, and how Gardner (not DJO, or Crowder) scored the 7 straight points, again in the second half, to pull the Warriors back on top for the win.

Gardner is not only good, but he has been the "clutch" and often "go to" guy since that NC game. More than anything else, Gardner should have serious respect. He is a money player.

[GGGG]

It is a bit odd how Gardner is treated on this board. It appears that almost everyone likes him. Yet, it seems, like Rodney Dangerfield, he gets little respect.

Actually, despite being is a 30 point hole, the Warriors not only clawed back, but where closing fast ... until they were trown a hook on the four point play. They were closing fast because of the Big Guy ... to the point that Williams called a time out to try and figure how to stop Gardner.

That is simply not how the game played out.  Here is the play-by-play:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=310840153

Davante had most of his points at the beginning of the half...and at the end.  But when MU cut it to 14 it was more Butler and Crowder leading the scoring.  UNC called two timeouts that half - neither off Davante scoring and one was when the game was well in hand at the end.

And I never thought in the second half that MU was going to win.

[Bocephys]

The real cat they couldn't stop was Rob Frozena.  He came in, hit a beautiful corner three and Roy Williams had the audacity to run out the clock he was so worried about what Rob could do. 

[Blue Horseshoe]

That is simply not how the game played out.  Here is the play-by-play:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=310840153

Davante had most of his points at the beginning of the half...and at the end.  But when MU cut it to 14 it was more Butler and Crowder leading the scoring.  UNC called two timeouts that half - neither off Davante scoring and one was when the game was well in hand at the end.

And I never thought in the second half that MU was going to win.

This data is interfering with a terrible and false narrative!

[NersEllenson]

It is a bit odd how Gardner is treated on this board. It appears that almost everyone likes him. Yet, it seems, like Rodney Dangerfield, he gets little respect.

Actually, despite being is a 30 point hole, the Warriors not only clawed back, but where closing fast ... until they were trown a hook on the four point play. They were closing fast because of the Big Guy ... to the point that Williams called a time out to try and figure how to stop Gardner.

Putting that game aside, putting aside offensive efficiency, putting aside valude added, just think of Georgetown at home game game and how Gardner (on one leg) went on one of his runs in the second half. More importantly think of Murray State, and how Gardner (not DJO, or Crowder) scored the 7 straight points, again in the second half, to pull the Warriors back on top for the win.

Gardner is not only good, but he has been the "clutch" and often "go to" guy since that NC game. More than anything else, Gardner should have serious respect. He is a money player.

There have been a few on this board who have generally minimized Gardner's value, largely for the last 2 years, while championing Vander Blue's value...and to this day, cannot acknowledge the fallacy of their evaluations.  God bless them, though.  The stark contrast they make in trying to minimize Gardner's value, while maximizing Blue's is ridiculous.  To Blue's defense, they are left with:  Anyone who knows anything about basketball can see Blue has an impact on the game in so many ways - he's a very good defender and rebounding guard.  Uh..okay. I'm still waiting for MU to give Vander the ball in clutch time, and say, okay...go get us one..we need a bucket.  Until Blue starts getting 3-4 steals a game and converting those into points, his overall value will not come close to matching Gardner's overall value.  Gardner is MU's biggest money player.  Period.

[brewcity77]

I take great solace knowing that after next year, both Gardner and Blue will graduate so we can be done with this ridiculousness.

[Bocephys]

I take great solace knowing that after next year, both Gardner and Blue will graduate so we can be done with this ridiculousness.

Better hope neither gets injured and granted the dreaded fifth year...

[GGGG]

I take great solace knowing that after next year, both Gardner and Blue will graduate so we can be done with this ridiculousness.

Exactly...like anyone is making this an "either/or" type discussion.  Both are players with positives and negatives to their games. 

[NersEllenson]

I take great solace knowing that after next year, both Gardner and Blue will graduate so we can be done with this ridiculousness.

I'm lamenting Gardner's graduation...as I don't see how he's going to be easily replaced...

Exactly...like anyone is making this an "either/or" type discussion.  Both are players with positives and negatives to their games. 

Agree that it doesn't need to be an either/or type of discussion - just that there be a consistency as to how each player is judged, and not grasping for straws (intangibles)to support one, while denying the tangibles of the other.

[jsglow]

The real cat they couldn't stop was Rob Frozena.  He came in, hit a beautiful corner three and Roy Williams had the audacity to run out the clock he was so worried about what Rob could do. 

Absolutely.  MU made a major mistake on the remake of the 'History Video' when they added the 2010s and failed to include Rob along with DJO and Jae.  Hey, I'd love to be able to tell my grandkids about the 3 ball I hit in the NCAA Sweet 16 game.

[brewcity77]

Agree that it doesn't need to be an either/or type of discussion - just that there be a consistency as to how each player is judged, and not grasping for straws (intangibles)to support one, while denying the tangibles of the other.

That is complete and utter BS. You live to perpetuate this inane discussion. Why else bring Blue into this thread in the first place? The only other mention of Blue prior to you trying to beat this dead horse that was dragged into the glue factory a year and a half ago was when BLUE Horseshoe posted in the thread, AND HE WASN'T TALKING ABOUT VANDER! If you would stop trying to resurrect this year-and-a-half old discussion that was dead ages ago, this entire site would be a more enjoyable place.

[martyconlonontherun]

Besides the whole argument about garbage time minutes, there is also the fact Gardner wasn't even close to our main option. Williams probably cared a lot more about shutting down our 3 future NBA draft picks than some freshman. Those 3 combined for 31 points, so I doubt Roy really cared Gardner went off when the game was out of hand.

Also, who the f cares that DG had a great half 2 years ago. Its not like he has been dominating them a conference rivals multiple times in a 2 year period. It was one half and it is a totally different team now. They have 5 guys who are 6'7" or taller that weren't on the team two years ago. I have no doubt in my mind Roy will have a better game plan for DG now that he is our main option.



Also, do you guys do value-add for NBA players? I would LOVE to see what Drew Gooden would be projected for coming into this year. The guy fills up the stat book, but even my girlfriend can see the guy hurts his team every time he touches the court.

[NersEllenson]

That is complete and utter BS. You live to perpetuate this inane discussion. Why else bring Blue into this thread in the first place? The only other mention of Blue prior to you trying to beat this dead horse that was dragged into the glue factory a year and a half ago was when BLUE Horseshoe posted in the thread, AND HE WASN'T TALKING ABOUT VANDER! If you would stop trying to resurrect this year-and-a-half old discussion that was dead ages ago, this entire site would be a more enjoyable place.

Brew - Only reason it was brought up was because UticaBusBarn brought up that Gardner doesn't get respect around here...and *generally* the few who have posted negatively on Gardner have been you and on rare occasions Sultan.  Your negative commentary on Gardner stems from our debating the value of Gardner compared to Blue and Otule - two players you have championed.  The continued refusal to give Gardner his due...and minimize his value is what UticaBusBarn refers to - particularly when it is abundantly clear that Gardner is our best Go To option...and generally Go To players are considered a team's best...and not usually debated as to importance against a role/glue type player like Vander Blue is at this stage.

I'll drop the matter, but this debate has been perpetuated as much by you, as it has been me...and the rest of the board.  I'm not trying to resurrect the discussion - but the topic of Vander's play is resurrected by many here, as is Gardners...so they will continue to be topics of conversation with or without you/me commenting.  Peace tho - I respect your passion for MU ball, and a majority of your opinions...and hope you can do the same with regard to me.

[GGGG]

Ners, UticaBusBarn was apparently watching an imaginary basketball game because the way he stated how the UNC game played out was completely false.  He may not get his due here, but people shouldn't make things up to defend him.

If you want to debate Gardner's play, debate his play.  If you want to debate Blue's, debate Blue's.  There is no reason to bring up one in a debate about the other - it's not a zero sum game.

[The Equalizer]

There have been a few on this board who have generally minimized Gardner's value, largely for the last 2 years,

I disagree.  I think Gardner has received far more love that is deserved.  Admittedly, he's the best at cleaning up garbage inside we've seen in years.  On the other hand, half the garbage he cleans up is his own, and the other half we give back at the other end of the court.

Blue has the opposite problem.  He's great defensively, but doesn't score at a level we need if he's going to be in the game for 30+ mpg agaisnt BE-level competition.

What we need is a guy with Blue's defense and Gardner's offense.  Unfortunately, guys with skills like that play one season for Cal and then move on to the NBA.

Gardner is MU's biggest money player.  Period.

And at a listed 290, nobody is going to argue the point.  Hiyo!