[PaintTouches]Reincarnating the Big East

[PaintTouchesSays]

Reincarnating the Big East
      

Written by: jeff wolf
            

Last week, Notre Dame announced its decision to leave the Big East and join the ACC in all sports but football. And with that announcement, college sports Nostradamuses are again making predictions on an impending apocalypse for the Big East. ... Continue reading →


            

http://painttouches.com/2012/09/25/reincarnating-the-big-east/
      

[GGGG]

"In hindsight, it's probably for the best that UMass and Rhode Island didn't make it in. Just as with the original Big East, our conference has taken on a decidedly urban (and private school) flair."


You are aware that Virginia Commonwealth is a public university right?  I would rather have URI and UMASS than St. Joes and St. Louis.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I know Butler and VCU have had a good run, but are they good enough to be considered automatics?

History isn't on their side. If they lose their coaches, they could be screwed.

[Dawson Rental]

"With the retirement of Jim Calhoun, it's only a matter of time before Connecticut becomes the next Big East team to defect to the ACC."

What is Wolf saying here?  UConn thought everything was fine, but now that Calhoun has retired, UConn is in panic mode?  Or the ACC wanted UConn, but it didn't want Calhoun coaching in the conference?  Neither is true.

Virginia Commonwealth is a must have?  What about after Shaka Smart leaves?

"Instead of waiting for a desperate hour to make their move, the non-FBS power schools in Big East territory should do something drastic: strike out on their own and essentially restart the historic conference from its roots."

This is just a rehash of a premise that has already been discussed and debunked on other threads here.  For MU to stay competitive, or so the argument goes, MU must stop competing against established big time basketball programs like Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn and an on the rise Rutgers.  We'll replace them with Xavier (not bad), VCU, Butler, Dayton, St. Louis, and Richmond.  Quality recruits want to play against the best competition.  How would this look to them?  How much TV revenue do we throw out when we disassociate MU from nationally branded basketball programs?  How big a cut does that force in the men's basketball budget?

Oh, I almost forgot, the athletic conference sky is falling!  All the football schools are going to leave because that's what football playing schools do.  Well, we'll show them and leave them first!  Aside from the juvenile nature of this reaction, the question arises whether the football playing schools are leaving.  Aside from the Big 12, all the (used to be) BCS conferences seem quite happy with how they are currently constituted.  This has not been the case for decades. The Big 12 has run the numbers and found that the most desirable Big East members for them geographically, Louisville and Cincinnati are "deficit units".  That is, they are schools who will take out from the TV revenue kitty more money then they will contribute.  The whole reason for conference realignment has been to increase TV revenue, not decrease it.  The last real current threat to the Big East was the possibility that the Big 12 would raid the ACC for two schools, leaving the ACC wanting to replace them with big East members.  However, the ACC is instituting a 50 million withdrawal fee.  That should go a long way toward cutting off that option for the Big 12.

[Aughnanure]

Add me to the "Why VCU" crowd. They should not be considered automatic like this piece does. Not that I would mind VCU, but I would rather have Richmond (private, big endowment is a plus), and I would honestly be interested in both.

Also, how does this ranking not take in account for areas where we would already have teams? You think Georgetown is gonna be okay with GW? Villanova with St. Joe's? St. John's with Fordham (ha). Unless there's a powerful rivalry to keep (VCU-Richmond? Xavier-Dayton) it's best to avoid that.

Also, UMass is going D1 in football in football, so it's best avoid them anyways.

Also, why does Creighton or Wichita St never get any love? It's in Marquette's interest to spread the conference more geographically for the right schools (i.e., closer).

[Aughnanure]

"With the retirement of Jim Calhoun, it's only a matter of time before Connecticut becomes the next Big East team to defect to the ACC."

What is Wolf saying here?  UConn thought everything was fine, but now that Calhoun has retired, UConn is in panic mode?  Or the ACC wanted UConn, but it didn't want Calhoun coaching in the conference?  Neither is true.

Virginia Commonwealth is a must have?  What about after Shaka Smart leaves?

"Instead of waiting for a desperate hour to make their move, the non-FBS power schools in Big East territory should do something drastic: strike out on their own and essentially restart the historic conference from its roots."

This is just a rehash of a premise that has already been discussed and debunked on other threads here.  For MU to stay competitive, or so the argument goes, MU must stop competing against established big time basketball programs like Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn and an on the rise Rutgers.  We'll replace them with Xavier (not bad), VCU, Butler, Dayton, St. Louis, and Richmond.  Quality recruits want to play against the best competition.  How would this look to them?  How much TV revenue do we throw out when we disassociate MU from nationally branded basketball programs?  How big a cut does that force in the men's basketball budget?

Oh, I almost forgot, the athletic conference sky is falling!  All the football schools are going to leave because that's what football playing schools do.  Well, we'll show them and leave them first!  Aside from the juvenile nature of this reaction, the question arises whether the football playing schools are leaving.  Aside from the Big 12, all the (used to be) BCS conferences seem quite happy with how they are currently constituted.  This has not been the case for decades. The Big 12 has run the numbers and found that the most desirable Big East members for them geographically, Louisville and Cincinnati are "deficit units".  That is, they are schools who will take out from the TV revenue kitty more money then they will contribute.  The last real current threat to the Big East was the possibility that the Big 12 would raid the ACC for two schools, leaving the ACC wanting to replace them with big East members.  However, the ACC is instituting a 50 million withdrawal fee.  That should go a long way toward cutting off that option for the Big 12.

I mostly agree. There is no reason for the basketball schools to strike out on their own right now. But the premise remains that when (not if) Louisville, UConn, Rutgers are gone -  at what point does the league continue to add value to the basketball schools? Sure Memphis, Temple and Cincy are nice. But how nice are they with USF, UCF, SMU, Boise St, Navy?

Also, we should never push for a split until we know we will keep the Big East name. That IS a big deal.

[Dawson Rental]

I mostly agree. There is no reason for the basketball schools to strike out on their own right now. But the premise remains that when (not if) Louisville, UConn, Rutgers are gone -  at what point does the league continue to add value to the basketball schools? Sure Memphis, Temple and Cincy are nice. But how nice are they with USF, UCF, SMU, Boise St, Navy?

Also, we should never push for a split until we know we will keep the Big East name. That IS a big deal.

I forgot to mention Temple, nice pickup.  Boise State and Navy are football only schools, so the status of their basketball programs aren't an issue.  I was going to mention, but forgot to bring up the fact that if you're going to recruit nationally, don't you want a presence in Texas (SMU and Houston) and Florida (USF and UCF) for your conference?

You're dead on about the desirability of keeping the Big East name.

[The Equalizer]

VCU and Butler just paid a $700K entry fee to join the A10, and would have to pay $1 million to leave the A10.

As outlined earlier, Xavier would walk away from a HUGE pile of previously earned NCAA money if they left the A10.

And without any indication that this new conference would match the A10's 75% sharing of NCAA money, all three (if they anticipate future success) would walk away from a lot of future revenue as well.

[Pakuni]

I know Butler and VCU have had a good run, but are they good enough to be considered automatics?

History isn't on their side. If they lose their coaches, they could be screwed.

Maybe, maybe not.
VCU's current run of success started in 2003-04 under Jeff Capel, continued under Anthony Grant and then was handed over to Shaka Smart.
And Butler made several NCAA runs (including Sweet 16s in 2003 and 2007) in the years before Brad Stevens became coach.
Obviously Stevens and Smart led their teams to unprecedented heights, but it's not as if they weren't solid programs until those two came around.

[Aughnanure]

I forgot to mention Temple, nice pickup.  Boise State and Navy are football only schools, so the status of their basketball programs aren't an issue.  I was going to mention, but forgot to bring up the fact that if you're going to recruit nationally, don't you want a presence in Texas (SMU and Houston) and Florida (USF and UCF) for your conference?

You're dead on about the desirability of keeping the Big East name.

Well, the Big East never had before. I don't think its a 'must-have' in any way. Also, do you really think the western schools are going to football-only for long? I think it's not too long until they add more western schools (i.e., BYU, AirForce, someone else) and establish the western half so those schools can put all their sports in. Especially with any more defections.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Maybe, maybe not.
VCU's current run of success started in 2003-04 under Jeff Capel, continued under Anthony Grant and then was handed over to Shaka Smart.
And Butler made several NCAA runs (including Sweet 16s in 2003 and 2007) in the years before Brad Stevens became coach.
Obviously Stevens and Smart led their teams to unprecedented heights, but it's not as if they weren't solid programs until those two came around.

Totally fair.

Admittedly, I'm not up to date on each school's history.

I'm not as concerned about immediate results as I am with the schools commitment to athletics. If Butler loses Steven, but spends big $ to find another coach, then they will probably be ok. But, if they lose him and the Athletic department decides to spend less, then it could be an issue.

[MU82]

Not always the best idea to measure "fan support" by attendance.

Most games, DePaul doesn't fill half the seats at its arena and many games they don't fill a third of them. Even when Quentin Richardson and Bobby Simmons were going to the NCAAs, DePaul had trouble convincing fans -- especially students -- to venture out to Rosemont. I know there was support during the end of the Ray years and early Joey years, but from the time I got to Chicago ('94), support has been mediocre to poor. That's nearly two decades of history, one that included many homegrown stars and some decent teams.

If they had a nice, on-campus arena that seated 10K, they'd be on to something, but that has been proposed and shot down about a dozen times in the last 20 years.

Having said that, I'd still take DePaul because its in Chicago and because it is a "sleeping giant" in the right situation.

[muwarrior69]

Well if the Beast is going to play football on the west coast lets invite Gonzaga and St. Mary's for basketball.

[bilsu]

Well if the Beast is going to play football on the west coast lets invite Gonzaga and St. Mary's for basketball.

Before inviting more schools add San Diego St for basketball.

[bilsu]

I think the biggest problem with this analysis is to assume the A-10 will break up. They are now close to the quality of the current Big East.  Drop out Louisville and Uconn(however, I doubt that anyone wants Uconn) and the A-10 might be the better conference. It would make more sense for the A-10 to add 2 or 4 Big East teams. I am assuming they will not take Temple back. Add Villanova, MU, DePaul and St. John's and it becomes an even stronger basketball conference. Even better if they can get Georgetown for a 19 team league, which would result in an 18 game league schedule. The day will come where we are begging to get into the A-10.

[The Equalizer]

I think the biggest problem with this analysis is to assume the A-10 will break up. They are now close to the quality of the current Big East.  Drop out Louisville and Uconn(however, I doubt that anyone wants Uconn) and the A-10 might be the better conference. It would make more sense for the A-10 to add 2 or 4 Big East teams. I am assuming they will not take Temple back. Add Villanova, MU, DePaul and St. John's and it becomes an even stronger basketball conference. Even better if they can get Georgetown for a 19 team league, which would result in an 18 game league schedule. The day will come where we are begging to get into the A-10.

The problem is that most of the Big East schools will have a hard time justifying the $10 million Big East exit fee.

Only MU, Georgetown and perhaps Villanova could make anything close to a reasonable the business case right now to leave the BE and join the A10 (assuming recent NCAA trends continue)

DePaul's payback would probably be sometime between Forever and Eternity.  All so they could trade home games with Houston and UCF for games with LaSalle and St. Boneventure.

[bilsu]

Do we know if the basketball schools have the same exit fee structure as the football schools?

[slingkong]

SLU doesn't have the entirety of MO as a market. Mizzou does. Some of the STL metro area might care but most don't care at all about SLU sports. SLU would probably still make the cut per these categories but definitely wouldn't be #3 overall.

[The Equalizer]

Do we know if the basketball schools have the same exit fee structure as the football schools?

I checked--you're right--its only $5 million for basketball schools.  That would reduce the payback period for DePaul to only about 50 years.

The other question--which is under-discussed--is whether it would be collectively better for the 12 or 16 or 18 best non-football teams to be in one conference togehter, or to align themselves into  two different conferences, each with a handful of very strong teams.

It's the "Lake Woebegone" effect where people seem to think everyone is still going to be above average in such an alignment. 

In reality, in conference play we'll have the ultimate zero-sum game.  Someone is going to finish last, and half the teams will be the bottom half of the conference.