Sizing Up Three Potential New Basketball-Centric Members For The ACC

[nathanziarek]

Not much new here other than some more wishful thinking, but at least it's nice to be someone's conversation!

http://t.co/RoSM7mkV

This is no doubt a huge long shot, but stay with me here. Conference realignment holds no geographic limitations; the forces pushing the realignment wheel minimize travel inconvenience and regional disunity. To wit: Boise State, beginning in 2013, will play its football in the Big East and its other sports in the Big West. As outlandish as it sounds, these sorts of geographic mismatches are commonplace in today's post-realignment world. So it's not at all crazy to suggest Marquette, located in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, could join the ACC... More

[Marqus Howard]

Rush The Court seems to churn out these pro-Marquette articles every few months. I would be ecstatic if this came to fruition, but it seems unlikely.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

They needed a third school to mention. At this point, the best we can hope for is that the ACC and Big 12 leave Louisville, GTown, and UConn alone and we manage to restructure around those programs. This hoops season could be huge, and a deep tournament run could make or break us I feel.

[Tugg Speedman]

Everything I read is the ACC is done.  Adding another school does nothing to increase their TV contract and makes the rest get a smaller share.

Same with the B10 and the B12.  Even though the B12 only has 10 teams, if they go to 16, so they can get a FB conference championship, adding the likes of Louisville or Cincy does nothing to increase their TV contract and lowers everyone's share.  They are not doing anything for now (as in a few years, if ever)

So, I agree that we might be in an era of stability.  I would not be surprised if no "big" schools make moves to or among the power conferences for the next few years.

[GGGG]

Everything I read is the ACC is done.  Adding another school does nothing to increase their TV contract and makes the rest get a smaller share.

Same with the B10 and the B12.  Even though the B12 only has 10 teams, if they go to 16, so they can get a FB conference championship, adding the likes of Louisville or Cincy does nothing to increase their TV contract and lowers everyone's share.  They are not doing anything for now (as in a few years, if ever)

So, I agree that we might be in an era of stability.  I would not be surprised if no "big" schools make moves to or among the power conferences for the next few years.

The B12 would only need to go to 12 to get a championship game.  (I think you just made a typo.)  But yeah, UC and UL aren't going to do it for them.

[Tugg Speedman]

Yes 12 would do it, but what two schools makes them money?  Right now they get 1/10 of a conference deal with no championship game.  If they went to 12, 14 or 16, what schools boost the TV contract to pay for their inclusion so you will accept a 1/12, 1/14 or 1/16 share instead of 1/10 and make more money?

Answer schools now in the ACC, B10, SEC and Pac-12.  But none of them are moving to the B12.  Schools in the BE or other FB conferences would water down the share of a B12 TV deal, not make them money.

So we are done with the moves and a period of stability will now settle in.

[GGGG]

Yeah I think you are right.  The ACC claims it is done, but any pick they make would be a marginal loss.  SEC is not adding anymore.  No obvious candidates for B10 or P12. 

The only scenario that *might* result in some instability is if the Longhorn Network takes off and Texas feels that it can do better as a football independent and park its other programs in the ACC in a Notre Dame like deal.  But if that even happens, I think it's a few years off.

[Tugg Speedman]

If Texas went independent, then the other 9 schools of the B12 would be up for grabs.  Schools like Kansas would look attractive to the B10.

But first Texas has to go independent, and like you said, that is not happening for at least a few years, if ever.

[bilsu]

Assuming the ACC would even consider adding a basketball only school, the only one of the three mentioned in the article that makes sense at all is Villanova. The probelm in adding a basketball school is what does the ACC do, if Notre Dame ever decides to join in football. The answer is to take Villanova with the agreement they upgrade their football when and if Notre Dame ever decides to join in football. Otherwise the ACC is just creating a future problem for themselves by taking a totally non-football school. 5,7,10 years from now, if Notre Dame decides to join in football, the ACC would have also have problem finding another football team, so Villanova could be a good addition now to cover that contingency. In the near term the ACC has only two viable choices. Stay with 15 or add a school that could provide a future football team.

[Room510]

In my mind, saying that ND did not join the ACC for football misstates the reality.  Their move was more about football than any of the other GoldenBS reasons they spin it.  They are agreeing to play 5 ACC football games a year and participate in ACC bowl arrangements.  So you could say their football is 2/3 of the way into the ACC.

So the ACC did not take in a non-football program here - and they are not going to take in any other one.   

[Aughnanure]

The B12 would only need to go to 12 to get a championship game.  (I think you just made a typo.)  But yeah, UC and UL aren't going to do it for them.

Disagree. Louisville brings enough to the table, but after that it's going to be a hard pill to swallow. But remember, they already rashly added TCU and WVU (would've been better if they could've gotten Pitt with them - they were trying before Cuse/Pitt suddenly moved).

Other Big XII boards (I know, but it's a reading of their fans/alums) keep mentioning USF and that makes me gag. The 4th best football program in any state is a bad idea (*cough* East Carolina *cough*).

I would think BYU would be high on their list, but they may have to settle for a Cincy/Memphis type unless they want to go all the way East and grab UConn or Rutgers.

[Aughnanure]

In my mind, saying that ND did not join the ACC for football misstates the reality.  Their move was more about football than any of the other GoldenBS reasons they spin it.  They are agreeing to play 5 ACC football games a year and participate in ACC bowl arrangements.  So you could say their football is 2/3 of the way into the ACC.

So the ACC did not take in a non-football program here - and they are not going to take in any other one.   

This. NO bball-only is going to the ACC or any other major football-conference.

...No, not even Villanova and their mythological D1 football program.

[dgies9156]

At the very least, what Notre Dame did was to potentially upgrade their schedule by guaranteeing five ACC games a year. Right now, the pool of independents capable of being able to play Notre Dame after the third or fourth week of the season is dropping dramatically.

Now, ND plays its Big 10 schedule -- Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State -- in weeks 1 to 3. Then they play the service acadamies, Boston College, Florida State and or Miami and one to two other saps in the next five weeks. Then it's USC. Without some type of conference affiliation, I don't see how Notre Dame can be assured of a D1 schedule in the years ahead. Frankly, the Big East doesn't hack it. Who would you rather play? Florida State, Clemson and Miami or UConn, Rutgers and Louisville?

With this deal, they lock in Florida State, Miami and Boston College -- or teams like these -- plus two other ACC teams. They still play the Big 10 and USC, if possible, plus the service acadamies.

So you sacrifice basketball by going to the ACC. From Notre Dame's perspective, you trade Marquette, Georgetown, UConn and Villanova for UNC, Duke, NC State and Virginia. If I were an Irish fan, I could live with that.

[Tugg Speedman]

You guys are thinking about this all wrong. 

Any school that is added will be based on alumni base, TV ratings and the potential to add to the existing TV contract. 

For instance, the ACC already has Maryland and Virginia so they do not need a DC Presence.  That rules of Georgetown as a non-basketball team.  Adding the Hoyas does nothing for their TV contract.  If the ACC wants a Philly presence, they would be better off with Rutgers than Villanova as they have a larger Alumni base but they passed on them (because they took Cuse Pitt and ND).  Why did they pass on Rutgers?  Because ESPN told them that Rutgers adds zero to their TV contract.

Louisville adds zero to the B12 TV contract.  Same with Cincy.  Add them to the B12 and everyone else gets less.

[dgies9156]

You guys are thinking about this all wrong. 

Any school that is added will be based on alumni base, TV ratings and the potential to add to the existing TV contract. 

For instance, the ACC already has Maryland and Virginia so they do not need a DC Presence.  That rules of Georgetown as a non-basketball team.  Adding the Hoyas does nothing for their TV contract.  If the ACC wants a Philly presence, they would be better off with Rutgers than Villanova as they have a larger Alumni base but they passed on them (because they took Cuse Pitt and ND).  Why did they pass on Rutgers?  Because ESPN told them that Rutgers adds zero to their TV contract.

Louisville adds zero to the B12 TV contract.  Same with Cincy.  Add them to the B12 and everyone else gets less.

No kidding! That's why we're going nowhere. What do we add to anyone's contract. We don't play football and our operating base is a dying industrial market in the Midwest. We have a strong presence in Chicago, which is covered for the Big 10 already. Beyond Wisconsin and Illinois, our alumni base offers very little.

I don't see us being attractive to anyone because we don't play football and we don't have a massive, national alumni base with tons of disposable income.

[Aughnanure]

You guys are thinking about this all wrong.  

Any school that is added will be based on alumni base, TV ratings and the potential to add to the existing TV contract.  

For instance, the ACC already has Maryland and Virginia so they do not need a DC Presence.  That rules of Georgetown as a non-basketball team.  Adding the Hoyas does nothing for their TV contract.  If the ACC wants a Philly presence, they would be better off with Rutgers than Villanova as they have a larger Alumni base but they passed on them (because they took Cuse Pitt and ND).  Why did they pass on Rutgers?  Because ESPN told them that Rutgers adds zero to their TV contract.

Louisville adds zero to the B12 TV contract.  Same with Cincy.  Add them to the B12 and everyone else gets less.

This is slightly wrong. First off, we are yet to see if Louisville will be added - but just because they haven't yet does not mean they do not bring enough value. Think TCU here -  Big XII already had Texas, right? Louisville would be a fine add, the problem is that the Big XII missed out on Pitt and those 2 along with WVU would've been a perfect match. So now it becomes the Louisville and who? Louisville doesn't have a clear attractive partner to join it, so it's in an awkward position (unless BYU and Big XII start talking again).

But the main thing here that is misunderstood is this idea that 'everyone gets less if we add more teams.' While this is somewhat true, it is not to the extreme some people (in every message board around) act like it is. Why? Cause adding a team = MORE GAMES. More games equal more inventory to sell advertising dollars.  So you're not actually taking away the pie, but growing it physically. These networks need and want game inventory (not every freaking game has to be Ohio St-Michigan to deliver ratings and ads).

So yes, you don't want to add Tulsa because you would not be able to the sell ad time at as high of a rate as needed. But a program like Louisville certainly can, especially when they would be selling ads for games like Kansas St-Louisville, Oklahoma St- Louisville, West Virginia-UL.

[thebigjake]

dgies has it right. And keep in mind that those very reasons why the top 5 conferences won't poach anymore BE teams is exactly why we finally have some stability.  We are in a conference of geographic misfits, yes. But also leftovers that the big boys just don't need. That sounds bad, but considering it means we stay in a conference with GT, LVille, Nova, UConn, St. John's, Cincy, Memphis and Temple makes me finally feel OK about all this realignment mess for the first time in a few years. We'll be fine. The BE will still have enough juice to earn 7-9 bids every year, but we have a better chance of being top 3 in the BE every year now. That means higher seeds and deeper tourney runs, which is what this is all about. Right?

This talk of running to the A10 is just silly.

[GGGG]

This is slightly wrong. First off, we are yet to see if Louisville will be added - but just because they haven't yet does not mean they do not bring enough value. Think TCU here -  Big XII already had Texas, right? Louisville would be a fine add, the problem is that the Big XII missed out on Pitt and those 2 along with WVU would've been a perfect match. So now it becomes the Louisville and who? Louisville doesn't have a clear attractive partner to join it, so it's in an awkward position (unless BYU and Big XII start talking again).

But the main thing here that is misunderstood is this idea that 'everyone gets less if we add more teams.' While this is somewhat true, it is not to the extreme some people (in every message board around) act like it is. Why? Cause adding a team = MORE GAMES. More games equal more inventory to sell advertising dollars.  So you're not actually taking away the pie, but growing it physically. These networks need and want game inventory (not every freaking game has to be Ohio St-Michigan to deliver ratings and ads).

So yes, you don't want to add Tulsa because you would not be able to the sell ad time at as high of a rate as needed. But a program like Louisville certainly can, especially when they would be selling ads for games like Kansas St-Louisville, Oklahoma St- Louisville, West Virginia-UL.

I think you are completely overstating Louisville's value.  Louisville has a great deal of support within its home city, but not much outside of that.  They simply don't have a large base of support.  I think that if the B12 were truly interested, they would have found a way for it to work by now.

[M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS]

dgies has it right. And keep in mind that those very reasons why the top 5 conferences won't poach anymore BE teams is exactly why we finally have some stability.  We are in a conference of geographic misfits, yes. But also leftovers that the big boys just don't need. That sounds bad, but considering it means we stay in a conference with GT, LVille, Nova, UConn, St. John's, Cincy, Memphis and Temple makes me finally feel OK about all this realignment mess for the first time in a few years. We'll be fine. The BE will still have enough juice to earn 7-9 bids every year, but we have a better chance of being top 3 in the BE every year now. That means higher seeds and deeper tourney runs, which is what this is all about. Right?

This talk of running to the A10 is just silly.

I dont think we would run to the A10.  More like poach a couple of their teams.  Like Xavier...

[Aughnanure]

I think you are completely overstating Louisville's value.  Louisville has a great deal of support within its home city, but not much outside of that.  They simply don't have a large base of support.  I think that if the B12 were truly interested, they would have found a way for it to work by now.

Unless Big XII finds a way to bring in Fla St/Clemson, Louisville will be added eventually. Big XII (rightly) has been trying to poach those southern ACC schools before grabbing Louisville cause they know they can always get the Ville.

[The Equalizer]

The BE will still have enough juice to earn 7-9 bids every year, but we have a better chance of being top 3 in the BE every year now. That means higher seeds and deeper tourney runs, which is what this is all about. Right?

I agree that it will becomes easier for us to make the top three in the Big East every year.  

But the reason its easier is because the competition is no longer as strong.  And if the competition isn't as strong, the league won't have as many teams qualify.

Replacing Syracuse, ND, Pitt and WVU with Houston, Temple, SMU, UCF and Memphis can't be considered an even swap.

[bilsu]

No it is not an even swap, but teams like DePaul should be improving.

[Tugg Speedman]

Unless Big XII finds a way to bring in Fla St/Clemson, Louisville will be added eventually. Big XII (rightly) has been trying to poach those southern ACC schools before grabbing Louisville cause they know they can always get the Ville.

ACC buyout was just raised to $50 million.  So no ACC tam is ever leaving for the rest of time.

Also the B12 has repeatedly said this week that they are done and not looking to add anyone else.  Sure they can change they mind, but I take those statements to mean no one is going to the B12 for AT LEAST a year, and probably longer.  That means we (the BE) have stability.

[Tugg Speedman]

Let's separate two things ....

Most of the comments above are about football.  Yes, the BE is a misfit football conference.  Not so when it comes to basketball.  It has been the premier basketball conference over the last several years.

That said, let's not confuse it with the non-football schools.  We are not saddled with a mediocre football team no one wants, like all the remaining BE football schools (and yes that includes Uconn Rutgers and 'ville).  We get nothing from Football in the BE (never have) so football is not our problem.

Regarding basketball, we have value with all the other basketball only schools.  Our preference is to remain in the BE and I think we finally have some stability so that can happen.  But if it dissolves all the basketball schools can form a conference and pick up a few other basketball only schools in about five minutes.  That new conference will produce as many NCAA bids as the ACC or B10 and ESPN will give it a decent (basketball) TV contact right away.

I would rather be MU, or any other basketball only school in the BE, than any BE football school.  We are in better shape and have better options.

[Aughnanure]

ACC buyout was just raised to $50 million.  So no ACC tam is ever leaving for the rest of time.

Also the B12 has repeatedly said this week that they are done and not looking to add anyone else.  Sure they can change they mind, but I take those statements to mean no one is going to the B12 for AT LEAST a year, and probably longer.  That means we (the BE) have stability.

If you've been paying attention to the details, the full knowledge of the buyout increase is debatable. It gets weird and is not as simple as "they can never leave." First, it has been reported that Pitt and Cuse were allowed to vote for the adding ND but NOT for the increase. There is known anger from FSU, UMd and others on how and when this will take  effect. A High ranking UMd official said Notre Dame was "shoved down our throats." It doesn't take a genius to see the members that voted against he increase are squirming and not happy.

Second, this is Maryland's president who voted against the increase:

Loh, a former dean of the University of Washington Law School who holds a law degree from Yale, said that he believes very strongly in freedom of contract, wherein people are free to enter into and exit from relationships, provided they pay a reasonable amount of damages for breaking out of the relationship. The definition of "reasonable," Loh said, is up for legal bodies to decide, but should not be "a damage that is so punitive and so overwhelming that it deters people from entering an agreement" in the first place.


Third, name me one school that has moved conferences and PAID IN FULL THEIR CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS of the exit fees. The answer is NONE! If you really think for one second that lawyers aren't ready to pounce  on this and find a way out, you're being delusional. Obviously any move should happen sooner rather than later, but there will ALWAYS be a way to get out of paying in full. The Grant of Media Rights the Big XII gave is much much much more restrictive.

Plus, The Big XII has $60 million on hand to help any team, as being reported and bragged about by all the Big XII blogs. Forgot exactly where that comes from, but I remember that being true.