[Cracked Sidewalks] Projecting 2012-13 (Part 1 of 4): Otule and Thomas give MU 10th best returning redshirts – Louisville and Notre Dame 3rd and 4th

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 1 of 4): Otule and Thomas give MU 10th best returning redshirts – Louisville and Notre Dame 3rd and 4th

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Last night four of the top 7 Value Add players in last May's projections were on the court in the Final Four games, but the scary part was seeing how well Louisville fought Kentucky despite note yet having transfer Luke Hancock from George Mason or the injured Mike Marra.

Those two rank as the 6th and 11th best players in the country returning from a redshirt year, as they combine for a projected 7.66% Value Add from players coming back from a redshirt year.  At the bottom of this post is the list of 100 players who took a red shirt this year, but are likely to have Value Add next year.

Missouri and West Virginia have the most projected Value Add from current redshirts, but right behind them are Big East foes Louisville and Notre Dame, with Marquette just a few spots back at 10th best in the country with Otule and Thomas.  This post reviews the returning red shirts for every team, and this will be followed by posts on projected Value Adds for new recruits and returning players from this year’s teams – finally wrapping up with the overall projected Value Add for all 345 teams for the 2012-13 season and where Marquette ranks in the Big East and nationally.

Notre Dame gets the #1 returning player in Tim Abromaitis and with #40 Garrick Sherman ranks as the 4th best team overall, but Marquette’s combination of sharp shooter Jake Thomas (15th most valuable incoming transfer/41st best player coming back from redshirt) and Chris Otule (29th best returning player) give Marquette the 10th best Value Add from redshirted players.  The following are the top 20 teams in the country:

Projected 2012-13 Value Add from current red shirts
1. Missouri 7.99
2. West Virginia 7.95
3. Louisville 7.66
4. Notre Dame 7.01
5. Iowa St. 6.32
6. Minnesota 5.51
7. Temple 5.15
8. Butler 4.41
9. Utah 4.07
10. Marquette 3.58
11. North Carolina 3.54
12. California 3.29
13. Oregon 3.12
14. Kentucky 2.99
15. Hofstra 2.89
16. Nebraska 2.69
17. Southern Cal 2.58
18. Rutgers 2.56
19. Canisius 1.98
20. Drake 1.97

Last May we did a similar piece noting that Jamil Wilson projected as the 23rd best transfer, but sharp-shooter Jake Thomas ranks 8 spots higher based on lighting it up at South Dakota.  Remember, Value Add is adjusted for competition, so his ability to average putting up seven treys a game and still maintain a 39% accuracy from beyond the arc for two years truly gives the perfect complement to Otule’s power defense inside – whether he comes in to bury a couple of shots a game or is utilized more to destroy zones.

I laid out that Value Add indicated MU should be almost at the same level next year, but has a real shot in 2014 to go to the Final Four.  Of course, that was in the vacuum of looking at MU only, so we will see how we actually stack up once all 345 teams’ Value Add is tallied.

After compiling these three lists of projected Value Adds, we will sum up in a fourth piece where all of the teams across the country rate in cumulative Value Add.

Some other players you may note from the table below are players who could have ended up at Marquette in Aaric Murray (#3, chose West Virginia), D.J Newbill (#20) and Korie Lucious (#23), as well as former MU players Trevor Mbakwe (#2) and Erik Williams (#74).

This does not include any new players who could transfer immediately, such as huge impact players such as Alex Oriakhi of UConn and Trent Lockett of Arizona State.

I always appreciate any corrections to my database, so please email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com if something is wrong on this sheet, or just looks off to you.  College Hoops Update does a great job of keeping up a list of projected rosters, so if you aren’t sure, check that out by clicking here and if you catch something, I will update this list.

Here is the table.  There weren’t quite 100 players who projected to add value, so I included a couple at 0% who were close to round out the list at 100:

table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}
.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}

RnkFNAmeLnameHeightTeamOffDefTotYearOld school[/tr]

1	Tim	Abromaitis	6' 8"	Notre Dame	5.51	0.00	5.51	Sr
2	Trevor	Mbakwe	6' 8"	Minnesota	3.52	-1.99	5.51	Sr
3	Aaric	Murray	6' 10"	West Virginia	3.67	-1.37	5.04	Jr	Xavier
4	Will	Clyburn	6' 7"	Iowa St.	3.67	-1.35	5.02	Sr	Utah
5	Rotnei	Clarke	6' 0"	Butler	4.41	0	4.41	Sr
6	Luke	Hancock	6' 5"	Louisville	3	-1.15	4.15	Jr	George Mason
7	Aaron	Dotson	6' 4"	Utah	2.77	-1.29	4.07	Jr	Louisiana St.
8	Laurence	Bowers	6' 8"	Missouri	3.04	-0.99	4.03	Sr
9	Scootie	Randall	6' 6"	Temple	2.86	-1.08	3.94	Sr
10	Leslie	McDonald	6' 4"	North Carolina	1.21	-2.33	3.54	Jr
11	Mike	Marra	6' 4"	Louisville	0.39	-3.12	3.51	Jr
12	Ricky	Kreklow	6' 6"	California	2.95	-0.34	3.29	So	Missouri
13	Olu	Ashaolu	6' 7"	Oregon	1.10	-2.02	3.12	Sr	LouisianaTech
14	Juwan	Staten	6' 0"	West Virginia	0.00	-2.91	2.91	So	Dayton
15	Jamal	Coombs-McDaniel	6' 7"	Hofstra	1.13	-1.76	2.89	Jr
16	Marc	Trasolini	6' 9"	Santa Clara	2.89	0	2.89	Sr
17	Ryan	Harrow	5' 11"	Kentucky	2.60	0.00	2.60	So
18	Kourtney	Roberson	6' 9"	TexasA&M	1.42	-1.14	2.56	So
19	Nick	Minnerath	6' 8"	Detroit	2.53	0	2.53	Jr
20	D.J.	Newbill	6' 4"	Penn St.	2.49	0	2.49	So
21	Brandon	Wood	6' 2"	MICHIGAN St.	2.48	0	2.48	Jr	Valparaiso
22	Jabari	Brown	6' 4"	Missouri	2.40	0.00	2.40	Fr
23	Wally	Judge	6' 9"	Rutgers	2.30	0.00	2.30	Jr
24	Larry	Drew	6' 2"	UCLA	0.05	-2.24	2.29	Sr
25	Ramon	Galloway	6' 1"	LaSalle	0.88	-1.41	2.29	Jr	SouthCarolina
26	Kelly	Olynyk	6' 11"	Gonzaga	1.01	-1.19	2.20	Jr
27	Manny	Atkins	6' 7"	Georgia St.	1.18	-1.01	2.19	Jr
28	Khem	Birch	6' 8"	Pittsburgh	2.10	0.00	2.10	Fr	UNLV
29	Chris	Otule	6' 11"	Marquette	0.01	-2.08	2.09	Jr
30	Dwayne	Polee	6' 7"	San Diego St.	1.44	-0.63	2.07	So	St. John's
31	Seth	VanDeest	6' 11"	Drake	1.97	0	1.97	Jr
32	Andre	Almeida	6' 11"	Nebraska	0	-1.96	1.96	Sr
33	Stacey	Poole	6' 5"	GeorgiaTech	1.80	0.00	1.80	So	Kentucky
34	Darrell	Williams	6' 8"	Oklahoma St.	0.89	-0.91	1.80	Sr
35	Scott	Suggs	6' 6"	Washington	1.76	0	1.76	Sr
36	Bryson	Pope	6' 6"	KENT St.	0.00	-1.66	1.66	Jr	Tulsa
37	Lorne	Jackson	6' 2"	Pepperdine	1.6	0	1.60	Sr
38	Jio	Fontan	6' 0"	Southern California	0.58	-0.94	1.52	Jr	Fordham
39	Malcolm	Armstead	6' 0"	Wichita St.	1.50	0.00	1.50	Sr
40	Garrick	Sherman	6' 10"	NotreDame	0.43	-1.07	1.50	Jr
41	Jake	Thomas	6' 3"	Marquette	1.49	0.00	1.49	Jr	South Dakota
42	Earnest	Ross	6' 5"	Missouri	1.46	0	1.46	Jr
43	Will	Felder	6' 6"	MIAMI-OHIO	0.00	-1.41	1.41	Jr	St. Francis PA
44	Isaiah	Armwood	6' 7"	GeorgeWashington	1.40	0.00	1.40	So	Villanova
45	Korie	Lucious	5' 11"	Iowa St.	1.30	0.00	1.30	Sr	MichiganSt.
46	DeShawn	Dockery	5' 11"	TENNESSEE St.	0.00	-1.25	1.25	Jr	FarleighDickinson
47	Dalton	Pepper	6' 5"	Temple	0.69	-0.52	1.21	Jr
48	Lamont	Jones	6' 0"	IONA	1.15	0	1.15	So	Arizona
49	Isaac	Sosa	6' 3"	Canisius	1.1	0	1.10	Sr	CentralFlorida
50	Ari	Stewart	6' 7"	Southern California	0.00	-1.06	1.06	Jr	Wake Forest
51	Josh	McCoy	6' 4"	MISSOURI- St.LOUIS	1.01	0	1.01	So	ClevelandState
52	Sam	Prescott	6' 3"	Mount St. Mary's	0.00	-1.01	1.01	Jr	Marist
53	Vee	Sanford	6' 3"	Dayton	0.73	-0.25	0.98	Jr
54	Michael	Bizoukas	6' 1"	MISSOURI St.	0.00	-0.92	0.92	Sr	DePaul
55	Mangisto	Arop	6' 5"	INDIANA St.	0.31	-0.6	0.91	So	Gonzaga
56	Brian	Oliver	6' 6"	Seton Hall	0.90	0.00	0.90	Jr
57	Freddy	Asprilla	6' 10"	Canisius	0	-0.88	0.88	Sr
58	Marshawn	Powell	6' 7"	Arkansas	0.87	0	0.87	Jr
59	Kendrick	Washington	6' 7"	Arkansas St.	0.11	-0.72	0.83	Jr	Houston
60	Gene	Teague	6' 9"	Seton Hall	0.22	-0.60	0.82	Jr	Southern Illinois
61	Amath	M'Baye	6' 9"	OKLAHOMA	0.80	0.00	0.80	Jr
62	Eshaunte	Jones	6' 4"	NORTHERNKENTUCKY	0.04	-0.76	0.80	So	Nebraska
63	Charles	Carmouche	6' 2"	Memphis	0.75	-0.05	0.80	Sr
64	Ray	Gallegos	6' 3"	Nebraska	0	-0.73	0.73	Jr
65	Bryce	Jones	6' 5"	UNLV	0.00	-0.72	0.72	So	Southern California
66	Royce	Woolridge	6' 2"	Washington St.	0.70	0.00	0.70	So	Kansas
67	Antoine	Proctor	6' 3"	MONTANA-BILLINGS	0.00	-0.69	0.69	Sr	Sacramento St.
68	Glenn	Bryant	6' 7"	EasternMichigan	0.69	0	0.69	Jr
69	Chris	Pelcher	6' 10"	NEWHAMPSHIRE	0.68	0	0.68	So	Iona
70	Sampson	Carter	6' 8"	Massachusetts	0.62	0	0.62	Jr
71	Akeem	Richmond	6' 1"	EastCarolina	0.61	0	0.61	Jr
72	Julian	Gamble	6' 9"	Miami	0.61	0	0.61	Sr
73	Nikola	Cerina	6' 9"	Northwestern	0.00	-0.60	0.60	Jr	Texas Christian
74	Erik	Williams	6' 7"	Sam Houston St.	0.36	-0.15	0.52	Jr	Marquette
75	Zach	Bohannon	6' 7"	Wisconsin	0.42	0	0.42	Jr
76	Jamal	Branch	6' 3"	St. John's	0.40	0.00	0.40	Fr	TexasA&M
77	Marko	Petrovic	6' 3"	XAVIER	0.39	0	0.39	Fr	SanFrancisco
78	Maurice	Creek	6' 5"	Indiana	0.39	0	0.39	Jr
79	Jon	Hood	6' 7"	Kentucky	0	-0.39	0.39	Jr
80	J'mison	Morgan	6' 10"	Baylor	0.03	-0.34	0.37	Sr
81	Riley	Barker	6' 9"	Portland	0.32	0	0.32	So
82	Colton	Iverson	6' 10"	Colorado St.	0.02	-0.29	0.31	Sr
83	Noruwa	Agho	6' 3"	Columbia	0.28	0	0.28	Jr
84	Austin	Carroll	6' 3"	Rutgers	0.26	0	0.26	So
85	Jordan	Jahr	6' 6"	Evansville	0.25	0	0.25	So
86	Roger	Franklin	6' 5"	NorthTexas	0	-0.22	0.22	Jr
87	J.J.	Richardson	6' 8"	HOUSTON	0.20	0.00	0.20	So	Arizona
88	Darius	Leonard	6' 9"	CAMPBELL	0.18	0	0.18	Fr	KentState
89	Joe	Latas	6' 11"	HOUSTONBAPTIST	0.18	0	0.18	Jr	ClevelandState
90	Hayden	Humes	6' 8"	ILLINOISCHICAGO	0.15	0	0.15	Fr	Toledo
91	Keion	Bell	6' 3"	Missouri	0.1	0	0.10	Sr
92	Will	Regan	6' 9"	BUFFALO	0.00	-0.07	0.07	So	Virginia
93	Evan	Gordon	6' 2"	Arizona St.	0.06	0	0.06	Jr
94	Desmar	Jackson	6' 5"	Southern Illinois	0.06	0	0.06	Jr
95	Dre’	Winston	6' 1"	PORTLAND St.	0.00	-0.03	0.03	So	Washington St.
96	Jon	Horford	6' 9"	Michigan	0.00	-0.01	0.01	So
97	Amath	M’Baye	6' 9"	OKLAHOMA	0.00	0.00	0.00	So	Arizona
98	Hooper	Vint	6' 10"	Texas-ElPaso	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr
99	Cedrick	McAfee	6' 3"	Auburn	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr
100	Ben	McLemore	6' 5"	Kansas	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/04/projecting-2012-13-part-1-of-4-otule.html

[brewcity77]

Olu Ashaolu (#13) didn't redshirt, he played for Oregon this past year. He graduated and was thus eligible to transfer and play immediately this past year. He used up the last of his eligibility in 2011-12.

[QuetteHoops]

I thought Abromitas wasn't granted another year...

[MarquetteDano]

I think you reversed Khem Birch.  It appears he is going to Pitt from UNLV when it is the other way around.

[oshkoshbgosh]

Brandon Wood also played this year for Mich. State after graduating from Valpo.

Also notice #20, D.J. Newbill for Penn State. Where have I heard that name before?

[bamamarquettefan]

thank you!  All great catches that will be incorporated into the final tallies in Part 4.