Back To Basketball - Next Years Player Potential

[jeffreyweee]

I just want to get back on the topic of hoops asap. I just typed this up real quick cause I was bored and didn't want to write my history paper or study for my physics exam. Hope I didn't forget anyone - my opinion on the potential best and worst case scenarios of our team, by player:

The returners

Junior Cadougan:

Best case: After a full year of running the offense Junior is ready to be more consistent. His decision making, handle, and outside shot all significantly improve as he continues to get in better physical condition. 12 and 7 with over a 30% 3P% isn't unreasonable to expect as there won't be 2 guys monopolizing the shots this year.

Worst case: Another season like this year. Can't get over the consistency hump and Vander / Taylor / Wilson take more time from him at the point.

Chris Otule:

Best case: Complete recovery an continued dedicated work ethic result in 1-2 more RPG and 2-4 more PPG. I don't see any more than that mainly due to Gardner pushing for at least equal playing time as he gets more fit and capable on defense. A stat line of 7/6/3blks would do wonders for this team to stabilize the defense and rebounding.

Worst Case: Not quite the same athletically as last year and conditioning becomes a problem due to his knee, the Eagles are forced to go "small" again with Davante/Jamil splitting time at the 5.

Vander Blue:

Best Case: Mr. Everything. He takes the big step offensively. He begins to finish strong and in control around the rim and hits the 3 pointer off the set shot at a rate of 33-35%. Takes on the opposing teams best offensive perimeter player every night. 15pts/5reb/4assists/2steals/1block. The ultimate glue guy.

Worst Case: Can't put it together offensively and get passed by Mayo and Taylor in minutes. Numbers drop from playing time being down.

Jamil Wilson:

Best Case: Really starts drilling that 15-18 footer we saw Jimmy Butler master. It opens up his driving game an becomes a real dynamic offensive threat. Defensively our best switchable and screen guarder. 15/8 isn't unreasonable.

Worst Case: Is there really a worst case with this guy? 10/5? I dont see anyone taking his playing time and he will inevitably get more shots with DJO and Crowder gone. I just don't see a "worst case" from Jamil.

Jamail Jones

Best Case: Finds his offensive niche now that he'll be relegated to the 3 as he should be instead of the 4/5 when jae and jamil are in foul trouble. Knocks down the 3 at a good clip and isn't afraid to put it on the floor and throw it down like we saw in high school. A dynamic offensive threat capable of serious instant offense. 6-8ppg and a handful of rebounds.

Worst Case: Bench warmer for his career. Too many good guards in front of him and not a "banger" to play the 4 position.

Davante Gardner:

Best Case: Looks like an entirely new player AGAIN next year. A noticeable vertical leap and conditioning improvement allow davante to play 25mpg at a high, efficient level. Develops a strong left hand skill set and gets more defensive boards. 14/7. I think these numbers could be higher but I dont see Chris not getting 15-20mpg if healthy.

Worst Case: Continue to have nagging injuries that keep him from getting in great condition (shoulder last year, knee this year). Stays about the same weight with the same production.

Todd Mayo:

Best Case: A weight room offseason of Todd vs. Todd. Stronger around the rim and becomes a real go to scorer for 25-30mpg. Takes the new roll as defensive stopper (maybe the best off the ball face guarder i've seen as a freshman). 16/4/3.

Worst Case: Bugged by shooting slumps too often and doesn't get his points in the flow of the offense. Throws up shots too early in the shot clock and struggles as defenses key on him more. Similar stats to this year: 8/3.

Juan Anderson:

Best Case: I hope he moves in with Todd Smith until Marquette Madness. See a similar body transformation as Jamail Jones in the off season strength-wise and really excels in the 10-15mpg "Joe Fulce" roll. A bit of a "do anything" type of player. Great passer, good defender and decent shooter while the game slows down for him.

Worst Case: Passed by Steve Taylor and behind Jamil, Davante and Otule he just doesn't get any minutes. Bench.

Derrick Wilson

Best Case: Shows the ability to run the offense and not just keep the TO's down. Spells Junior for 10mpg with an effort of 4/2. While those numbers aren't huge, they would be incredibly useful to Buzz and Junior.

Steve Taylor

Best Case: Takes Juan Anderson's 10mpg and stretches the floor with his 3pt shooting. Excels as an energy guy in the paint grabbing rebounds on both ends of the floor and shows a bit of a post game every once and a while.

Worst Case: Behind Juan, Jamil, Otule and Gardner he can't get in. His body isn't Big East ready and spends the year seeing too many DNP - Coach's Decision.

The New Guys

TJ Taylor

Best Case: Replicates his JUCO numbers of 14ppg and a low 30's 3P%. Shares minutes with Todd/Vander as the 2/3 or even spells Junior at point (less likely). His strength and experience really pay off.

Worst Case: Slow JUCO transition to the new workload / school. 5-10 mpg with not much confidence.

Jamal Ferguson

Pretty big question mark here:

Best Case: Bothers teams with his ungodly wingspan and becomes a fantastic defensive stopper. A bit like Vander his freshman year with more of an ability to finish around the rim. 10mpg spelling vander at the 3 and playing great defense.

Worst Case: Just too many good guards in front of him. Bench.

Aaron Durley

Mega unknown, hard to predict:

Best Case: His athleticism and big body translates to the Big East immediately. Playing against Chris and Davante all summer give him the confidence he needs to play 5-10mpg of solid defense and get scrappy put back points. I don't see him taking Chris' defensive roll or Davante's offensive roll this year but he shows an ability to develop into both a solid offensive and defensive player.

Worst Case: Mbao minutes and Mbao ending. His skills just don't translate to high major status and ends up on the bench.

[tower912]

I predict that Durley red-shirts.   I predict that Junior and Blue make the biggest leaps.   Assuming health, the DG/CO combo becomes a two headed monster that combines for 20 and 10, forcing other coaches to actually game plan for the MU post game.   Incremental but noticeable improvements from JWilson and Mayo, primarily in leadership and consistency.      Sweet 16 again, done in by the lack of a Crowder/Lazar/JFB type leader. 

[bilsu]

When was the last time we did not have at least one double digit scorer returning?

[tower912]

03-04 may be a decent parallel, as Diener at 11.8 and Merrit at 10.1 were returning, but Wade and Jackson had left.  I couldn't find any  since 2000.

[MUMac]

TJ Taylor

Best Case: Replicates his JUCO numbers of 14ppg and a low 30's 3P%. Shares minutes with Todd/Vander as the 2/3 or even spells Junior at point (less likely). His strength and experience really pay off.

Worst Case: Slow JUCO transition to the new workload / school. 5-10 mpg with not much confidence.

One thing to remember about Taylor - he spent a summer and 1st semester at Oklahoma.  He had concussions and was going to sit out, which is why he went JUCO.  Thus, I doubt his transition will be slow or difficult.

[frozena pizza]

Great post, thanks.

Steve Taylor is a "new guy" but that's nit picking.

I don't expect any meaningful contributions from the new guys. 

I think Otule, Mayo and J. Wilson are poised to take the biggest steps forward.

Didn't see Jake Thomas in there.  Not expecting much from him, but I think his "best case" could be pretty good.

Mostly, I would just love to see us go through a season without any significant injuries.  If we do that, we should be in the top third of the BE.  But one or two key injuries could really derail this team.

[BCHoopster]

Good points.  The only thing I want to see is Junior learning to use his left hand more, dribbling is questionable but what he really needs work on is finishing with his left hand in scoring situations.  If he does that, he can become a 10 point scorer.

[PJDunn]

I predict that Durley red-shirts.   I predict that Junior and Blue make the biggest leaps.   Assuming health, the DG/CO combo becomes a two headed monster that combines for 20 and 10, forcing other coaches to actually game plan for the MU post game.   Incremental but noticeable improvements from JWilson and Mayo, primarily in leadership and consistency.      Sweet 16 again, done in by the lack of a Crowder/Lazar/JFB type leader. 

Considering this was only our 4th sweet 16 since Al left, that is a high expectation.  3 in a row would truly be sweet. 

[brewcity77]

Nice thread, though as far as the OP goes...pretty sure Steve Taylor is a new guy

My thoughts...

The Starters

• Junior: I expect him to simply be consistent. Maybe 7-9 ppg, 5-7 apg, and a 2.5 or better A/T ratio. He'll be the often unsung hero that always gets undue blame, but I expect him to be great.
  
• Van: I expect some pretty studly numbers. 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg, and around 30% from the arc. He won't put up the gaudy points of his predecessors, but he'll be a guy you never, ever, ever want off the floor.
  
• Mayo: Likely scoring leader, should start and average 14-15 ppg while hitting close to 40% from 3. May declare for the NBA draft if his scoring average is 16+, though it'd be a year too early.
  
• Jamil: Will be close to Mayo for the scoring lead, and will really excel as a swing 3-4. Numbers will make him look like MU's MVP, and he may well be.
  
• Otule: No idea how he'll rebound from the surgery, but I think he'll be somewhat limited. Still, with his 7'5" wingspan, he'll be a defensive force. Look for him to start and get 15-18 mpg of shot-stuffing.

.
The Returning Bench

• Gardner: Will come off the bench, but will get more minutes than Otule, probably in the 20-22 range. Will be one of 4 guys in double-digit scoring and a low-post load.
  
• Juan: He'll make the jump so many hoped Jones would make this year. One of the hardest workers on the floor already, he'll benefit greatly from a summer with Todd Smith and hopefully getting his skills to catch up with his insane basketball IQ. 10-15 mpg off the bench.
  
• DW: Will pretty much strictly be Junior's backup, which will give him 8-10 mpg. He won't need to score, but if he can keep his A/T ratio around 2, he'll be a solid contributor.
  
• Mellow: He put in work in the weight room, but it didn't translate to the court. The talent is there, but he doesn't seem to be able to harness it. I hope he can just find a little consistency.
  
• Jake: When he puts up 17 points on 5/5 shooting from 3 against Wisconsin, his admirers will go nuts. But the reality will be that he's a zone-buster who's really only suited for short stints and won't contribute in fast-paced games. He'll have his nights where he legitimately makes a difference, but just as often will be a DNP-CD. 5-8 mpg and 3-5 ppg.

.
The Newcomers

• Steve: We always oversell a freshman, and I think he might be it this year. He'll get some time, but by Big East season it will diminish and he'll likely be deep bench. I love his potential, but this is just a different level, and Jamil, Juan, and Mellow all have a big leg up on him.
  
• TJ: I expect him to be our biggest impact newcomer. I think he'll be the first guard off the bench, and his ability to play 1-3 in Buzz's offense will allow him to get 20 mpg if his defense is sound. With his shooting and athleticism, I think he could have a statline similar to Wes Matthews as a freshman.
  
• Ferguson: Early on, he'll surprise some people. He's an athlete and has the kind of defensive potential Buzz likes. I think he's a lot like a less polished Jeremy Lamb.
  
• Durley: If he doesn't redshirt, he'll see limited minutes in November and December, and will only play in the Big East if someone's hurt. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up better than Otule or Gardner (**braces for backlash**) but I think he needs 1-2 years before we start to see that.

[Bardo32486]

I may be overly optimistic here, but I think Jake Thomas steals the show next year. Had INCREDIBLE range and massive games before he walked-on last year. Tall, perimeter player. Reminds me of Steve Novak. Watch for him to explode in BE play.

[hdog1017]

I may be overly optimistic here, but I think Jake Thomas steals the show next year. Had INCREDIBLE range and massive games before he walked-on last year. Tall, perimeter player. Reminds me of Steve Novak. Watch for him to explode in BE play.

I know you stated that you maybe overly optimistic, but can I have whatever you are drinking?  Thomas is listed at 6'3".  Novak was 6'10" I believe.  That's a big difference.  Thomas won't be able to shoot over anybody the way that Novak did. 

Thomas has the ability to knock down a triple or two a game, but to expect something more might be a little too optimistic. 

[Bardo32486]

I've seen Thomas listed as 6'3" and 6'4". Either way, that's not the small perimeter players Marquette has had in years past. And during his freshmen and sophmore years he made over 175 3-pointers and had multiple 30 pt games and one 40 pt game where he made 10 3's. Thats big time. I can see him.as a role player/3point Sharp-shooter like DJO was his sophomore season. Call me crazy all u want, but I think its possible

[Aughnanure]

I'm still hoping for Juan to have a massive breakout year at the 3 position behind Blue.

[brewcity77]

I've seen Thomas listed as 6'3" and 6'4". Either way, that's not the small perimeter players Marquette has had in years past. And during his freshmen and sophmore years he made over 175 3-pointers and had multiple 30 pt games and one 40 pt game where he made 10 3's. Thats big time. I can see him.as a role player/3point Sharp-shooter like DJO was his sophomore season. Call me crazy all u want, but I think its possible

DJO as a sophomore was a starter that averaged 29.7 mpg and 13 ppg. I like Jake and think he'll give more than the average walk-on, but with the quantity of talent we have, even getting 10 mpg would be a monumental accomplishment. He's a very good player, but the South Dakota team he played for was a completely different level of basketball. In his 2 years there, they only had 2 wins over top-200 kenpom teams, and none against teams in the top-175. To succeed at this level is a massive step up. I do feel he can contribute against slower paced teams (UW, ND) and act as a zone-buster, but to think that he will do anything remotely like what DJO did as a sophomore is...well, titanic expectations to say the least.

[Aughnanure]

It'd be nice if Jake Thomas, Blue or TJ Taylor could run some of the point this year. Having a scoring option/threat would be so nice at the PG.

[wojosdojo]

Nice thread, though as far as the OP goes...pretty sure Steve Taylor is a new guy

My thoughts...

The Starters

• Junior: I expect him to simply be consistent. Maybe 7-9 ppg, 5-7 apg, and a 2.5 or better A/T ratio. He'll be the often unsung hero that always gets undue blame, but I expect him to be great.
  
• Van: I expect some pretty studly numbers. 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg, and around 30% from the arc. He won't put up the gaudy points of his predecessors, but he'll be a guy you never, ever, ever want off the floor.
  
• Mayo: Likely scoring leader, should start and average 14-15 ppg while hitting close to 40% from 3. May declare for the NBA draft if his scoring average is 16+, though it'd be a year too early.
  
• Jamil: Will be close to Mayo for the scoring lead, and will really excel as a swing 3-4. Numbers will make him look like MU's MVP, and he may well be.
  
• Otule: No idea how he'll rebound from the surgery, but I think he'll be somewhat limited. Still, with his 7'5" wingspan, he'll be a defensive force. Look for him to start and get 15-18 mpg of shot-stuffing.

.
The Returning Bench

• Gardner: Will come off the bench, but will get more minutes than Otule, probably in the 20-22 range. Will be one of 4 guys in double-digit scoring and a low-post load.
  
• Juan: He'll make the jump so many hoped Jones would make this year. One of the hardest workers on the floor already, he'll benefit greatly from a summer with Todd Smith and hopefully getting his skills to catch up with his insane basketball IQ. 10-15 mpg off the bench.
  
• DW: Will pretty much strictly be Junior's backup, which will give him 8-10 mpg. He won't need to score, but if he can keep his A/T ratio around 2, he'll be a solid contributor.
  
• Mellow: He put in work in the weight room, but it didn't translate to the court. The talent is there, but he doesn't seem to be able to harness it. I hope he can just find a little consistency.
  
• Jake: When he puts up 17 points on 5/5 shooting from 3 against Wisconsin, his admirers will go nuts. But the reality will be that he's a zone-buster who's really only suited for short stints and won't contribute in fast-paced games. He'll have his nights where he legitimately makes a difference, but just as often will be a DNP-CD. 5-8 mpg and 3-5 ppg.

.
The Newcomers

• Steve: We always oversell a freshman, and I think he might be it this year. He'll get some time, but by Big East season it will diminish and he'll likely be deep bench. I love his potential, but this is just a different level, and Jamil, Juan, and Mellow all have a big leg up on him.
  
• TJ: I expect him to be our biggest impact newcomer. I think he'll be the first guard off the bench, and his ability to play 1-3 in Buzz's offense will allow him to get 20 mpg if his defense is sound. With his shooting and athleticism, I think he could have a statline similar to Wes Matthews as a freshman.
  
• Ferguson: Early on, he'll surprise some people. He's an athlete and has the kind of defensive potential Buzz likes. I think he's a lot like a less polished Jeremy Lamb.
  
• Durley: If he doesn't redshirt, he'll see limited minutes in November and December, and will only play in the Big East if someone's hurt. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up better than Otule or Gardner (**braces for backlash**) but I think he needs 1-2 years before we start to see that.

Solid analysis. Agree with starting lineups and pretty much everything you say. However, I only saw Steve play once and none of the other new comers. I remember watching DJ(O) at the Old Spice in 2009 and saying he was going to make a huge impact at Marquette. From what I am hearing I may say the same about TJ.

[robmufan]

JC seemed to be more confident shooting/scoring towards the end of the year.  Sometimes it was a good thing, sometimes it wasn't.

I am interested to see what Blue can do when you don't have a "star" player making him more of a role player. If his scoring goes up, and he rebounds like he did this year, it could be a very special year for him.

[GGGG]

DJO as a sophomore was a starter that averaged 29.7 mpg and 13 ppg. I like Jake and think he'll give more than the average walk-on, but with the quantity of talent we have, even getting 10 mpg would be a monumental accomplishment. He's a very good player, but the South Dakota team he played for was a completely different level of basketball. In his 2 years there, they only had 2 wins over top-200 kenpom teams, and none against teams in the top-175. To succeed at this level is a massive step up. I do feel he can contribute against slower paced teams (UW, ND) and act as a zone-buster, but to think that he will do anything remotely like what DJO did as a sophomore is...well, titanic expectations to say the least.

Exactly.  If he was *that* good, why was he only offered by the likes of South Dakota out of school?  If he was *that* good, why is he a walk-on next year?  Let's be realistic here. 

[brewcity77]

Solid analysis. Agree with starting lineups and pretty much everything you say. However, I only saw Steve play once and none of the other new comers. I remember watching DJ(O) at the Old Spice in 2009 and saying he was going to make a huge impact at Marquette. From what I am hearing I may say the same about TJ.

I think one big difference for TJ is simply the available minutes. When DJO came here, we went small by necessity, Acker and Cooby were the obviously default starters, but even they hadn't put up big numbers before. The other minutes were either going to go to him or Buycks...someone had to step in because Caddy was injured, Fulce was coming off injury, and Williams simply wasn't ready. I felt the same exact way after the Old Spice, but for TJ, there are three established guards ahead of him, and other guys who can take some minutes as well.

[GGGG]

I think one big difference for TJ is simply the available minutes. When DJO came here, we went small by necessity, Acker and Cooby were the obviously default starters, but even they hadn't put up big numbers before. The other minutes were either going to go to him or Buycks...someone had to step in because Caddy was injured, Fulce was coming off injury, and Williams simply wasn't ready. I felt the same exact way after the Old Spice, but for TJ, there are three established guards ahead of him, and other guys who can take some minutes as well.

Three established guards if you count Blue, but Blue is more of a wing player.  My guess is TJ is the primary back up to Mayo and will get even more minutes if he can handle the ball reasonably well.

[ErickJD08]

When was the last time we did not have at least one double digit scorer returning?

Buzz's second season... Not sure if Harward as a double digit scorer yet.

[mug644]

Exactly.  If he was *that* good, why was he only offered by the likes of South Dakota out of school?  If he was *that* good, why is he a walk-on next year?  Let's be realistic here. 

Perhaps I'm being unfair (and I may even be accused of being 'anti-traditional'), but I can't help but wonder/worry if the Jake Thomas scenario is the Scott Christopherson scenario in reverse. SC had a solid enough high school career to get a scholarship at a major program as a freshman. But, maybe it was a program that wasn't well suited for his speed and athleticism (or lack therof), so he transferred to a lower level program (although folks could debate that, to some degree). And, he ended up having a solid collegiate career.

Thomas, on the other hand, didn't have the same attention in high school and started college in an undeniably low program. He was able to exploit his awesome shooting skill to have some great numbers. Still, what did that earn him? An opportunity to walk-on at a BEast program. He may well be overwhelmed in the same way SC was.

I want to hope that he'll have an impact, although I think a small impact is about all I can realistically hope for. I do hope that he'll be a great teammate and a valuable player in practices. Mostly, I hope he gets loads of playing time, 'cuz that is likely to mean we're having a lot of one-sided wins.

[bilsu]

I am not sure if I am thinking of the right person. I think Thomas was hurt his senior year and fell off the radar.

[Mike Deane]

I think the dark horse is Steve Taylor.

I agree starters will be Jr, Blue, Mayo, Jamil, and CO.

[brewcity77]

Three established guards if you count Blue, but Blue is more of a wing player.  My guess is TJ is the primary back up to Mayo and will get even more minutes if he can handle the ball reasonably well.

True, I'm just thinking that the role of TJ v DJO will be different. Being a backup at 2-3 positions versus instant starter and top-3 scoring option isn't nearly the same thing.