Rethink the importance of the Big East Tourney

[Tugg Speedman]

An often heard line around here is something like "who cares about the Big East Tourney, Give me a final four!"

Well they go hand-in-hand.  Below is the last 10 years, BE from 2006 to present and Conference USA and Big East from 2002 to 2005.

2012: Louisville, Won the BE Tourney
2011: Uconn, Won the BE Tourney (and the NC)
2010: WVU, Won the BE Tourney
2009: Uconn, #2 ranked team in the nation and a #1 seed in the NCAA
2009: Vilanova, #10 ranked team in the nation and a #3 seed in the NCAA
2008: No final four teams
2007: Georgetown, won the BE Tourney
2006: no final four teams
----------------------------------------
2005: Louisville, Won the Conference USA Tourney
2004: Uconn, Won the BE Tourney (and the NC)
2003: MU #10 ranked team and #3 seed
2003: Syracuse, Won the BE Tourney (and the NC)
2002: No Conference USA or Big East Teams

Here is the bottom line

10 teams have made the final four in the last 10 years.
7 of the 10 final four teams won their conference tourney.
The last three BE Tourney teams have made the final four
1 team was a #1 seed and ranked #2 in the nation
2 teams were #3 seeds and ranked in the top 10.

So what is a good indicator of a final four team?  Winning in MSG right before it the tourney starts.  Otherwise go into the tourney as the #1 seed.  This account for 80% of the final four teams.

[MUMac]

Sorry, but that is spin and changing history.  The majority of the comments about not winning the BE tourney was after MU lost.  And it was along the lines of not winning the BE tourney (or any tourney) does not mean you will fall flat or fail in the NCAA Tourney.  I don't know that many said they did not care about the BE tourney - in advance.  Some? yes.  Hardline? hardly.

[4everwarriors]

It's all about the scheckles

[Tugg Speedman]

Sorry, but that is spin and changing history.  The majority of the comments about not winning the BE tourney was after MU lost.

This is true.  But keep these stats in mind.  the conference tourney winner is on the fast track to the final four.

[MUMac]

This is true.  But keep these stats in mind.  the conference tourney winner is on the fast track to the final four.

I agree with that.  Winning the BE Tourney does show some toughness and peaking - all important in the NCAA Tourney.

[brewcity77]

Ding ding ding ding ding!

Any wonder I was so disappointed to crash out against UL? Winning the Big East usually translates to success in the Dance, and even if you Pitt out, you still have won the second-biggest tournament in all of college basketball (sorry, NIT).

[Tugg Speedman]

Ding ding ding ding ding!

Any wonder I was so disappointed to crash out against UL? Winning the Big East usually translates to success in the Dance, and even if you Pitt out, you still have won the second-biggest tournament in all of college basketball (sorry, NIT).

And this is why no one should be surprised that Louisville is the only BE team in the final four despite a #4 seed.  They did the one thing that accurately predicts final four teams, they won in NYC the week before!

[4everwarriors]

How 'bout the teams who shoot their load in the BE Tourney only to crap the bed in the dance like Syr 3-4 yrs ago?

[Tugg Speedman]

How 'bout the teams who shoot their load in the BE Tourney only to crap the bed in the dance like Syr 3-4 yrs ago?

The last three BE champions went to the Final four (and Uconn won).  4 of the last 5 BE champions went to the final four.

BE champions don't crap the bed, only one did in the last five years (Pitt in 2008 which was BE tourney champion and a #1 seed). 

What you suggest is not true.

[Hoopaloop]

This is true.  But keep these stats in mind.  the conference tourney winner is on the fast track to the final four.

Aren't you really talking about a self selection process of statistics here?  If you win the Big East tournament, more than likely you are a very good team and will also do well in the NCAA Tournament. It doesn't mean you are the best team in the Big East, but more than likely a very good one.  The best team doesn't always win tournaments.

Let's also not forget that just because you win the BET doesn't mean you go to the Final Four as you state.  The tournaments are tough.  Any one and done situation is tough.  The best team doesn't always win the NCAA Tournament.

2012:  Louisville won Big East tournament and reached Final Four
2011:  Uconn won Big East tournament and reached Final Four (won it all)
2010:  WVU won Big East tournament and reached the Final Four
2007:  Georgetown won Big East tournament and reached Final Four
2004:  Uconn won Big East tournament and reached Final Four (won it all)

However, some won but lost in the first few rounds of NCAA and we heard the amazing arguments about how tired the run in the Big East tournament made the teams.  Which is it?

2009:  Louisville won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (knocked out in Elite 8)
2008:  Pittsburgh won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in 2nd round)
2006:  Syracuse won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in opening round)
2005:  Syracuse won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in opening round)
2003:  Pittsburgh won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (MU knocked them out Sweet 16 round)
2002:  UCONN won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in Elite 8 game)

[Tugg Speedman]

Your stats show that the last 10 BE tourney champions are 5 for 10 in making the final four.  

These are better odds than being a #1 seed!

Given the choice of being a BE tourney champion or a #1 seed, I'll take BE Tourney champion.  See this year; #1 Syracuse is going home with BE tourney champion Louisville is going to New Orleans.

[MU82]

I'm not a gotta-win-the-BET kind of guy, but I admit to being impressed by the success the BET has had in the NCAAs.

What I think is more impressive, however, is that last year's ninth-place team and this year's seventh-place team were good enough to reach the Final Four. How deep is this conference? You sure don't see such depth coming from any other league.

[RawdogDX]

Sorry, but that is spin and changing history.  The majority of the comments about not winning the BE tourney was after MU lost.  And it was along the lines of not winning the BE tourney (or any tourney) does not mean you will fall flat or fail in the NCAA Tourney.  I don't know that many said they did not care about the BE tourney - in advance.  Some? yes.  Hardline? hardly.

-1.  People have been saying that a freaking sweet 16 is more important than the BET for years.

[Big Papi]

2012:  Louisville won Big East tournament and reached Final Four
2011:  Uconn won Big East tournament and reached Final Four (won it all)
2010:  WVU won Big East tournament and reached the Final Four
2007:  Georgetown won Big East tournament and reached Final Four
2004:  Uconn won Big East tournament and reached Final Four (won it all)
2009:  Louisville won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (knocked out in Elite 8)
2008:  Pittsburgh won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in 2nd round)
2006:  Syracuse won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in opening round)
2005:  Syracuse won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in opening round)
2003:  Pittsburgh won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (MU knocked them out Sweet 16 round)
2002:  UCONN won Big East tournament and did not reach Final Four (lost in Elite 8 game)

So in the last 11 years the BET champ has:

Won National Title 2 times (possibility of 3)
Reached at least the Final Four 5 times (45% of the time)
Reached at least the Elite 2 times (64% of the time)
Reached at least the Sweet 16 1 time (73% of the time)
Reached Second round 1 time
Lost in first round 2 times (18% of the time)

Hmmm so if success is measured by making the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament, why wouldn't you be disappointed in not winning the Big East Tournament since BET winners make the Sweet 16 73% of the time?  Plus you have just as great a chance of winning the national title as you do flaming out in the first round and by flaming out, we are talking about Syracuse, a team that has always had phenomenal talent but has typically struggled in the NCAA tournament.

Give me a Big East Tournament Championship every year and I will take my chances with NCAA tournament.

[NavinRJohnson]

The error in this thinking is in the suggestion that their is some sort of direct cause and effect. Outise of possibly improving your seed, These teams aren't going to FFs or winning National Cahmpionships because they won the BET, they are winning both for the same reason, because they're good. Winning the BET is an indicator of NCAA success, because if you are good enough to win the BET, you are likely good enough to get to the FF. MU's loss to FLA had nothing to do with the loss to UofL outside of the fact that they simply weren't quite good enough to win either tournament.

[Tugg Speedman]

The error in this thinking is in the suggestion that their is some sort of direct cause and effect. Outise of possibly improving your seed, These teams aren't going to FFs or winning National Cahmpionships because they won the BET, they are winning both for the same reason, because they're good. Winning the BET is an indicator of NCAA success, because if you are good enough to win the BET, you are likely good enough to get to the FF. MU's loss to FLA had nothing to do with the loss to UofL outside of the fact that they simply weren't quite good enough to win either tournament.

As we pointed out above, many here have dissed winning the BE tourney saying they would rather have a sweet 16 or more.  The point here is they go hand-in-hand. 

In retrospect we should have seen our loss in the BE tourney and Louisville's 4 wins in four days as indicators of how each team would do the following week.  We should keep this in mind every year when the BE tourney comes around.

If you care about how we do in the big dance, then how we do in the BE tourney matters.

[Big Papi]

The error in this thinking is in the suggestion that their is some sort of direct cause and effect. Outise of possibly improving your seed, These teams aren't going to FFs or winning National Cahmpionships because they won the BET, they are winning both for the same reason, because they're good. Winning the BET is an indicator of NCAA success, because if you are good enough to win the BET, you are likely good enough to get to the FF. MU's loss to FLA had nothing to do with the loss to UofL outside of the fact that they simply weren't quite good enough to win either tournament.

Of course there is no direct cause and effect but yet some on here will defend that the preferred is to lose in the Big East Tourny or at the very least it is ok to lose because they care more about the NCAA Tournament?  Why?  Don't we always want to win?  Aren't we disappointed when we lose be it non-conference, conference or any tournaments?  It's definitely not a detriment to win the BET.

I was disappointed that we lost in the Big East Tournament this year.  We had a real good team.  We should have performed better in the BET.  Winning the BET does not have a negative affect on the NCAA tournament performance.  I think it would have been awesome to win the BET this year or any year.  That would have been a huge accomplishment and something we could talk about for a long long time with immense pride.

[brewcity77]

Of course there is no direct cause and effect but yet some on here will defend that the preferred is to lose in the Big East Tourny or at the very least it is ok to lose because they care more about the NCAA Tournament?  Why?  Don't we always want to win?  Aren't we disappointed when we lose be it non-conference, conference or any tournaments?  It's definitely not a detriment to win the BET.

Some people said we were better off losing early in the Big East tournament because it gave us more time to rest before the NCAAs. That is simply inane. Did Louisville need the extra time to rest? UConn last year? Any of the Big East teams that took a BET run and used it as a springboard to further NCAA success?

That's a ridiculous argument. During the regular season, you typically have 2-4 days off between games. After the Big East final on Saturday, you get at least 4 full days off before you have to play again. That's plenty of rest time. There is zero downside to winning the Big East Tournament. Asserting otherwise is simply preposterous. And if NCAA success and BET success are completely independent (despite the trend the numbers indicate over the past decade), then if you exit early in the NCAAs, isn't it better to say "well, at least we won the BET" rather than saying "we lost our first BET game and got bounced by a 14-seed a week later?"

[rocky_warrior]

That's a ridiculous argument.

This is all ridiculous.  MU lost to the BET champion.  Does it matter whether we played that game 2 days later in the championship?  Likely not.  It was a bad draw, they lost to the champs.  What can you do.

But I would argue Davante DID need more time to rest before the NCAA.

[Tugg Speedman]

This is all ridiculous.  MU lost to the BET champion.  Does it matter whether we played that game 2 days later in the championship?  Likely not.  It was a bad draw, they lost to the champs.  What can you do.

But I would argue Davante DID need more time to rest before the NCAA.

Yes we got a bad draw in the BE tourney.  That said, I think it would have made a difference had we lost to Loserville in the finals rather than getting bounced in our first game.

Did you think Cincy was a sweet 16 team?  I did not but making the finals of the BE tourney helped give them some momentum going in the NCAA.

[Hoopaloop]

So in the last 11 years the BET champ has:

Won National Title 2 times (possibility of 3)
Reached at least the Final Four 5 times (45% of the time)
Reached at least the Elite 2 times (64% of the time)
Reached at least the Sweet 16 1 time (73% of the time)
Reached Second round 1 time
Lost in first round 2 times (18% of the time)

Hmmm so if success is measured by making the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament, why wouldn't you be disappointed in not winning the Big East Tournament since BET winners make the Sweet 16 73% of the time?  Plus you have just as great a chance of winning the national title as you do flaming out in the first round and by flaming out, we are talking about Syracuse, a team that has always had phenomenal talent but has typically struggled in the NCAA tournament.

Give me a Big East Tournament Championship every year and I will take my chances with NCAA tournament.

  Not arguing with your conclusion.  The notion that it is a fast track to the Final Four was more than a stretch.

[brewcity77]

This is all ridiculous.  MU lost to the BET champion.  Does it matter whether we played that game 2 days later in the championship?  Likely not.  It was a bad draw, they lost to the champs.  What can you do.

But I would argue Davante DID need more time to rest before the NCAA.

If he needed rest, the coaches can rest him. If he isn't fit to play, it's the job of Buzz and the training staff to make that call. But there's no logic in tanking for rest. You'll get rest time regardless of whether you play Thursday or Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

[MU82]

All I ever said was that if I had to make a choice, I would choose a couple (or more) NCAA tourney wins over a BET championship. I know I don't have the power to choose one or the other; I was just stating my preference -- and what I believe would be the preference of the vast majority of fans of programs everywhere (especially Mizzou fans, I'm guessing).

And the only reason I ever posted at all on the subject is that the loss to Louisville seemed to have so many MUScoopers on the ledge, as if we no longer had anything to play for because the season suddenly had become an abject failure.

[warthog-driver]

uconn runs table
pitino romps on the same
porcini delight