3 Seed vs 14 Seed - All Time Stats

[TallTitan34]

92-16, .852 | Higher seed scoring margin: +11.5 ppg

Recent upsets:
2010, Ohio over Georgetown
2006, Northwestern State over Iowa
2005, Bucknell over Kansas
1999, Weber State over North Carolina
1998, Richmond over South Carolina

Three seeds have been shocked by 14 seeds in about half the 27 dances of the modern era. In two years, there were two 3v14 upsets: 1986 and 1995.  The most recent 14-seed uprisings occurred in 2010 and 2006, with Ohio beating Georgetown and Northwestern State downing Iowa. Amazingly, 3 seeds are less likely to win one game in the tourney than top seeds are to win two. (Only 14 top seeds have failed to reach the Sweet Sixteen.) But it still doesn't make any sense to pick 3 seeds to lose in Round 1. Too many have made deep runs to eliminate them early. Just go back to last year, when UConn beat 14 seed Bucknell (a perennial Cinderella darling) on its way to the 2011 title.

Upset watch: The 14 seeds most likely to spring upsets are high scoring squads (averaging more than 76.5 points a game) coming into the tourney with solid momentum (more than six wins in their last 10 games and at least three straight victories). They're 13-24 (.351) while their lower scoring counterparts are just 3-68 (.042). If you further refined your criteria to teams relying on unbalanced scoring (more than 55 percent of scoring from either the frontcourt or backcourt), you'd improve your upset-picking odds to 41 percent (11-16).

The tell-tale sign of a 3 seed victim is a tight margin of victory, a so-so record and a so-so coach. Three seeds that score less than 17 percent more than their opponents, have a winning percentage lower than .840, have won fewer than nine of their last ten games and have a coach with less than five Elite Eight trips are more prone to upsets (12 losses in 42 tries for a 28.6 percent upset rate) than all other three seeds (only four losses in 66 tries for a 6.1 percent upset rate).

Last year, Syracuse possessed the attributes of a third-seeded victim, but the Orange had little trouble with Indiana State, winning 77-60.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracket-lab

[TJ]

I was at the 2006 NW State vs Iowa game.  It was a really boring game featuring two bad teams (Iowa was just terrible) capped off with one of the most exciting final 30 seconds I have ever witnessed.  Great finish and awesome to see a 3 seed go down

I was also in Indy in 2003 for MU-Holy Cross.  Absolutely could have gone the other way - thank you Travis Diener for keeping us off that list!

[AlumKCof93]

I thought Louisville last year was a 3 seed that lost to Morehead State.  That must have been wrong - were they a 2 or a 4?

[JakeBarnes]

I thought Louisville last year was a 3 seed that lost to Morehead State.  That must have been wrong - were they a 2 or a 4?

I believe they were a 4 off the top of my head because of the jokes made that they'd try to avoid that distinction of losing as a 4 this year.

[drewm88]

Upset watch: The 14 seeds most likely to spring upsets are high scoring squads (averaging more than 76.5 points a game) coming into the tourney with solid momentum (more than six wins in their last 10 games and at least three straight victories). They're 13-24 (.351) while their lower scoring counterparts are just 3-68 (.042). If you further refined your criteria to teams relying on unbalanced scoring (more than 55 percent of scoring from either the frontcourt or backcourt), you'd improve your upset-picking odds to 41 percent (11-16).

Since there has never before been a 14 seed at-large, all 14 seeds throughout the history of the tournament would have had to come in off of a victory in the conference championship and probably multiple to get there. That takes care of your 3 game win streak. Also, going 6-4 or worse over last 10 games, which includes winning the conference tournament, implies several losses to teams within your 1-bid conference. If that's the case, I'd expect a 15/16.

In other words, I'd be curious to see how many 14 seeds throughout history have fit these 2 criteria. My guess is >90%.