[Cracked Sidewalks] S-Curve: March 4 Update

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

S-Curve: March 4 Update

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

As of right now, the Big East would have 10 teams in the tournament just one year after landing a record 11 teams. That said, some of those teams still need help to stay on the right side of the bubble. Despite being higher on the S-Curve, teams like West Virginia, Connecticut, and Seton Hall may be in more danger than USF, who has been hot of late. USF likely secured their spot with the win at Louisville, while WVU may have done the same by returning that favor on the Bulls' court yesterday. The Hall also looked to have locked up a spot with their win against Georgetown, then came up short against Rutgers and DePaul. UConn's failures stretch back further, as they've gone 6-11 in their past 17 games. The Big East tournament will determine a great deal. USF and WVU probably only need one win to guarantee a spot, while UConn and Seton Hall need two wins apiece to truly feel secure. Here's the current S-Curve:





First Four Out: Miami, Dayton, UCF, VCU
Next Four Out: Arizona, Tennessee, NC State, Mississippi

One thing that should unnerve the Big East borderline teams are the potential bid-stealers. Here's a look at a few teams that could spoil Selection Sunday for some of the teams on the bubble:

Illinois State: The Redbirds beat Wichita State yesterday and could steal a bid if they can knock off Creighton. The Bluejays are safely in the tourney, while ISU has no hope outside of winning the conference tourney. Jackie Carmichael will be the key to any upset hopes they have. He is averaging 13.7 ppg and 9.6 rpg on the season, but only 10/5 in two games against Creighton. If Carmichael comes through, the Redbirds could be dancing.

Pennsylvania: Penn is hoping to do what Princeton did a year ago and knock Harvard off in a 1-game playoff. Coincidentally, it is Princeton that Penn has to beat to get to that playoff. Harvard should be safely in the field regardless, but Penn is a legitimate contender to steal a bid, as they did win at Harvard just over a week ago.

Cal Poly: Long Beach State has a solid resume and would be right in the mix as a bubble team if they lose in the Big West Tournament. Cal Poly is the only Big West team to be within single digits of LBS twice this season. They can play with the Beach. If they beat UC-Riverside, they could have a chance to steal the auto-bid on Friday.

Washington: California will be in the field, so almost any Pac-12 team could be a bid-stealer. But after Washington's loss to UCLA, they have virtually no chance of making the field without the auto-bid. But watching them play close to Marquette and Duke earlier this season, they are a team that can play with anyone in the country. They've stolen the auto-bid before, they could do it again.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/03/s-curve-march-4-update.html

[AlumKCof93]

I hope upon doesn't make it.  They certainly don't deserve it

[JTBMU7]

I thought it was great last year when CS gave a breakdown of potential first round ncaa matchups and locations given our anticipated seeding. Since we're basically locked into the 3 line, any chance we can see something like that again?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think Washington still has a very good shot at being the field, and not even the last four in. If they lose their first game of the PAC12 tournament, they may be on the bubble. But I think they're pretty safe as of now. Cal, Washington and Arizona should all be in the field.

[brewcity77]

I think Washington still has a very good shot at being the field, and not even the last four in. If they lose their first game of the PAC12 tournament, they may be on the bubble. But I think they're pretty safe as of now. Cal, Washington and Arizona should all be in the field.

Those three teams are a combined 4-14 against the RPI top-50. All of their top-50 wins came against teams from their own league. If the Pac-12 gets any more than Cal and the auto-bid (which could be the same team) it's a definitely BCS bias. That league is awful and doesn't deserve more than 1 team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Those three teams are a combined 4-14 against the RPI top-50. All of their top-50 wins came against teams from their own league. If the Pac-12 gets any more than Cal and the auto-bid (which could be the same team) it's a definitely BCS bias. That league is awful and doesn't deserve more than 1 team.

The Pac12 is definitely down but Arizona and Washington are tournament teams. They both pass the eye test, and again, assuming they don't add a terrible loss between now and the tournament, I think they're both in.

Arizona and Washington are better teams than Northwestern, Colorado State, Texas, Seton Hall, BYU, St. Joe's, Miami, Dayton, UCF, VCU, and Ole Miss. And those are the teams that are on the bubble.

[brewcity77]

I have a feeling the Pac-12 will get more in, I just don't think they deserve it. The teams you list have all beaten someone. They may not have a lot of good wins, but they all have at least one or two. Every chance the Pac-12 got in non-conference, they blew it. I'll be adding some criteria to my own data this week, which may benefit teams like UA and UW, but right now, I can't see any way they are more deserving than the teams I currently have as being in.

[Eye]

I'm with 5J on this one. As a guy who watches lots of UW (as opposed to the fraudelent on a national scale UW-Madison that Seth Davis got some great and accurate comments on in his column a handful of days back) and U of A, along with plenty of ND, UC, USF (not terribly willingly), UL, WVU, Hall and UConn, UW and U of A are better than most of those teams.

I would hope the committee would be able to figure out that it's not U of A's fault that Utah, USC and the junior varsity operation in Tempe are so lousy this year, which is what is dragging down their RPI so much. If you're going to call the Pac 12 a mid-major this year, I don't have a problem with that, in large part because there ae no dominant teams and the bottom 3 teams are abysmal.

As I finish this, U of A is tied with 5:11 to go. Lose that game and my argument for U of A is null and void. Teams that lose to the JV in March don't belong in the tournament.

Edit: U of A gave up 87 points and lost to the JV. No longer a worthy tournament team in my mind. Can get back in the discussion if they beat Cal in the tourney semi's.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Arizona losing to ASU is a very bad loss. So I think they're on the bubble and have significant amount of work to do in the PAC12 tournament now. Oh, how a few hours in March can change so much.

[Eye]

Only way U of A has a shot at an at-large now in my mind is if they beat Cal/UW in the semi's and lose the final in a competitive game to the other one.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

MSU loss helps our 2 see chances, no?

[Warriors10]

MSU loss helps our 2 see chances, no?

Probably not.  A MSU win would have helped a lot more.

[statnik]

MSU loss helps our 2 see chances, no?

Given they lost Branden Dawson to an ACL injury for the season in the process, I would say yes, especially if they don't advance to the final of the Big Ten Tournament.

[79Warrior]

The Pac12 is definitely down but Arizona and Washington are tournament teams. They both pass the eye test, and again, assuming they don't add a terrible loss between now and the tournament, I think they're both in.

Arizona and Washington are better teams than Northwestern, Colorado State, Texas, Seton Hall, BYU, St. Joe's, Miami, Dayton, UCF, VCU, and Ole Miss. And those are the teams that are on the bubble.

Absolutely. Pac 12 will get 3.

[JTBMU7]

Given they lost Branden Dawson to an ACL injury for the season in the process, I would say yes, especially if they don't advance to the final of the Big Ten Tournament.

i was on board with MSU getting a 1 as of last week, but i just took a look at their schedule... blown out by Duke/UNC... beat Gonzaga, FSU at home... outside of that, just a pretty good conf record, but not that great. and some bad losses. not nearly as impressive as i originally thought. i could see them dropping to the last #2 seed at this point. not sure if it's possible they will fall to a 3 or not...