[Cracked Sidewalks] S-Curve: Feb 29 Update

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

S-Curve: Feb 29 Update

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

Most of the changes of the past few days involve seed differences. Unfortunately, none of that has changed yet for Marquette. I know some people have MU on the 2-line, but I just don't see it yet. Louisville and Wisconsin getting into the top-20 RPI would help, beating Georgetown would help even more, but teams like Missouri and Ohio State just have too many great wins to be upended by Marquette's good ones.

Speaking of Wisconsin and Ohio State, the Badgers moved up from being the top 6-seed to being the bottom 4-seed after their win in Columbus. At the other end, UConn is continuing to fall after that loss to Providence. The Huskies don't look very good under George Blaney. It's been said that the Selection Committee takes injuries into account over the course of the season. If Calhoun is back in the next week, will they take that into account? It's obvious that they are not the same team without their coach at the helm. On the bubble, there were no real changes, other than teams shifting around. However, both USF and Miami are making strong pushes to get into the Dance, especially with Dayton and St. Joe's having so many bad losses. Both A-10 teams have a number of quality wins that are keeping them above water, but it wouldn't take much to tilt things out of their favor. Here's the S-Curve:






First Four Out: South Florida, Miami, Washington, UCF
Next Four Out: LSU, Illinois, VCU, Arizona

Finally...my thoughts on the PAC-12 as a multi-bid league. Right now, I just don't see it. Washington and Arizona have a combined 1 top-50 win between them, and that was Arizona's win over another PAC-12 team, California. Even without bad losses, I just can't put teams in without some quality wins. That's why I like Dayton and St. Joe's right now, because despite the bad losses, they both have three top-30 wins and have actually proven they can beat someone. Bottom line, yes, some PAC-12 teams have winning conference records, but if you do nothing in your non-conference and get 80% of your wins against sub-100 teams, you are more deserving of a bid to the NIT than the NCAAs.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/s-curve-feb-29-update.html

[brewcity77]

Last night's loss dropped us, but I'd only have us at the 10 overall spot right now. Looking at the three currently solid 3-seeds, we were neck and neck with Michigan before their loss at home to Purdue. Our loss on the road to Cincy is less egregious than that one was. We're behind Georgetown, but win on Saturday and we're right back to the top three spot, possibly higher depending on what happens.

In MUScoop-land, yesterday was disastrous. In terms of seeding and the Selection Committee, it really wasn't a bad loss.

[NavinRJohnson]

In MUScoop-land, yesterday was disastrous. In terms of seeding and the Selection Committee, it really wasn't a bad loss.

Agreed. Very minimal  impact. Of course if we lose Saturday, it will take on a little more meaning.

[dwaderoy2004]

It was our worst loss of the season, rpi wise, wasn't it?  Or has cincy moved ahead of lsu?

[brewcity77]

It was our worst loss of the season, rpi wise, wasn't it?  Or has cincy moved ahead of lsu?

They may have after last night, but a top-75 loss to a tourney team on the road isn't damaging.

[bilsu]

The rpi is a joke, when Uconn is put 38th on your s-curve and South Florida is a bubble team. There is no way Uconn should get a bid. Ditto for West Virginia.

[brewcity77]

The rpi is a joke, when Uconn is put 38th on your s-curve and South Florida is a bubble team. There is no way Uconn should get a bid. Ditto for West Virginia.

I'll admit, I'm a little tired of hearing this. I just don't know who's more worthy. First, while recent play is obviously rewarded by seeding, what a team does in November and December does matter. Second, if they don't deserve buds, who does? CAA teams like VCU that haven't beaten anyone all year? The awful PAC-12 teams whose only top-50 wins are against each other? NC State or Miami whose entire resume is based on 1-2 games?

Bottom line, the bubble is soft and some bad teams will get in. I find it more likely that it will be teams with some quality wins rather than teams that beat no one of consequence.

[bilsu]

Most teams significantly improve from November to March. A November win is a good indication of how good you are in November, but if you are a team that does not improve (Uconn) it should not keep you ranked as high as 38th.

[brewcity77]

Most teams significantly improve from November to March. A November win is a good indication of how good you are in November, but if you are a team that does not improve (Uconn) it should not keep you ranked as high as 38th.

So who's more deserving?

[bilsu]

In my opinion South Florida is more deserving than Uconn, West Virginia or Seton Hall and that was before they beat Louisville.