Outside shot at 1 seed still?

[dw3dw3dw3]

Hypothetically if MU was to win out (29-5)...and Cuse loses to ville in their regular season finale and to MU in the BEast finals (30-3), we could take their spot as the #1 Big East team. I think our neutral ct win would trump their home ct win vs us.  In that scenario, 1 seeds will go to Kentucky, acc winner (Duke/NC), b12 winner (KU/Mizzou) and either the b10 winner or BEast winner (MU). B10 is such a crapshoot any of those teams could knock of MSU early and derail their shot at a #1.   

Probably the same chances that Llyod had with Ms. Swanson, but fun to think about this late in the year.

1. Kentucky (28-1) : vs. UGA (3/1), @ #13. FLA (3/4)
2. Syracuse (29-1) : vs. #18 U of L (3/3)
3. Duke (25-4) : @ WF (2/28), vs. #6 UNC (3/3)
4. Kansas (24-5) : @ OK St (2/27), vs. Tex (3/3)
5. Michigan State (24-5) : @ #20 IU (2/28), vs. #11 OSU (3/4)
6. North Carolina (25-4) : vs. MD (2/29), @ #3 Duke (3/3)
7. Marquette (24-5) : @ Cincy (2/29), vs. #12 GTown (3/3)
8. Missouri (25-4) : vs. ISU (2/29), @ TT (3/3)

[martyconlonontherun]

If 3 out of the 4 ahead of us lose early in the tournament, I don't know how you can leave us out of the top 4 if we also win out. Winning 18 out of 19 and the BE tournament is top 4 material.

[flash]

The only way we get a 1 seed is by winning out.

[chapman]

UK and Cuse could lose out and still be #1s.  Beyond that it would take a lot...KU losing early in the B12 tournament, Mizzou not winning the B12 tournament either, MSU losing to OSU and also not winning the B1G tournament, UNC beating Duke in Cameron and then not winning the ACC tournament.  That's 5 teams that are ahead of us or have in-roads to get ahead of us, all competing for 2 spots as it is.  If we would win out we'd likely be the first or second #2 though.

[cheebs09]

Andy Glockner has us as the last two seed in front of Mizzou right now. He said their weak non-conference schedule is hurting them.

[strotty]

If Marquette wins out, they will be a one seed. Absolutely.

[dwaderoy2004]

I agree.

[MuMark]

Not going to happen......BE isn't getting 2 1 seeds.

Last 2 1 seeds will come from MSU, NC/Duke, and Kansas.

Cuse and Kentucky are already locks

[dwaderoy2004]

Hopefully we get the chance to find out.

[Benny B]

If MU gets a 1-seed, we're going to get shipped to Phoenix.  I'd much rather be a 3-seed in St. Looey.

[Goose]

I want to be the one seed at about 11pm on April 2nd.

[strotty]

Not going to happen......BE isn't getting 2 1 seeds.

Last 2 1 seeds will come from MSU, NC/Duke, and Kansas.

Cuse and Kentucky are already locks

A 29-5 team that has won 17 of 18 and would have an RPI of probably 2-4 is a 1 seed.

[MUWarrior11]

A 29-5 team that has won 17 of 18 and would have an RPI of probably 2-4 is a 1 seed.

Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?

Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team.  In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.

That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that.  And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.

In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed.  Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.

[strotty]

Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?

Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team.  In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.

That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that.  And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.

In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed.  Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.

Wins over Cincinnati (77), Georgetown (12), Louisville (20), maybe Georgetown again (12) and maybe Syracuse (1) would push their RPI toward the top, yes. They are ranked 7th in RPI right now.

The eye test, hype and Marquette rolling through the Big East Tournament would push them to a No. 1 seed, in my opinion.

And of course a lot of chips would need to fall into place for this to happen. That's the whole point of the thread. It's all speculative and probably won't happen.

[Canadian Dimes]

hvae to agree 5-0 gets us a 1

[Dawson Rental]

Unfortunately, I believe that there is a NCAA rule that requires that to get a number one seed, a team has to have a McDonald's All-American on its roster.

All kidding aside, it seems quite possible to me that its never happened.

[frozena pizza]

If MU gets a 1-seed, we're going to get shipped to Phoenix.  I'd much rather be a 3-seed in St. Looey.

Yeah, being a #1 seed would be really cool, but I'd rather be a notch or two lower and have a better draw (and maybe a chip on our shouler).

[dwaderoy2004]

Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?

Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team.  In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.

That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that.  And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.

In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed.  Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.

I don't think Mizzou can get a 1 over us if we both win out.  Their SOS is in the 100's, they have a worse RPI than MU, they have the same number of top 100 wins as MU.  Don't see it...

[Abode4life]

I would much rather be a high 2 or 3 seed and get decent matchups and a spot in Columbus for the first two rounds and then St. Louis in the regional.  If we get a 1 seed, we will be the last one and get a crappy location.  Seeding does not matter one bit.  Its much more about location and match ups.  That's why Lunardi won't pick a final four without seeing a bracket. 

[Warriors10]

I'd agree that Kentucky/Syracuse are automatic locks for a #1 seed.  Even if Syracuse loses to Louisville, and we beat them in the BE final.  They'll be a 3 loss team at best from the Big East.  Kentucky, well, do I really have to explain?  The only way we have a shot at a #1 seed is...

• Kansas or Missouri does not win the B12 tournament.  Team like Baylor does; Kansas does not even make the final
• Michigan State or Ohio State does not win the B10 tournament.  Wisconsin does (giving us a road win over the B10 champion as yucky as it sounds that Wisco wins the B10); Michigan State does not even make the final.  Remember Ohio State is still in front of us on the S-curve
• We obviously win the Big East tournament and win these last two games
• Duke or UNC does not win the ACC tournament.  Team like Florida State/Virginia does.  Problem is even if Duke/UNC make the final they will probably get a #1 seed

This just needs to happen for us to entertain the possibility of being a #1 seed.  We probably need a team or two of these to lose in the regular season still.  Overall, I'd rather be a #2/#3 seed in the Midwest or East than a #1 out west.

[wadesworld]

Why people would want to be a 3 seed over a 1 seed, anywhere, is beyond me.  If we got a 1 seed, they would not put us in a bracket where the 2, 3, and 4 seeds would have home games against us.  It would be a truly neutral site.  A 3 seed opens with a 14 seed.  14 seeds this year will probably be some mid-major who has decent talent.  A 16 seed is not going to beat a 1 seed, while I would not be surprised at all if a 14 beats a 3 this year.  Then the 2nd round you would rather play a 6 seed than an 8?  Again, they aren't going to give a 6 seed a virtual home game.  And being in Columbus is NOT going to give Marquette a home-court advantage, I can guarantee you of that.  Last year Marquette was in Cleveland and it was literally 90% Ohio State fans.  Neither Marquette nor Syracuse was well represented, and neither set of fans had any play in the outcome of that game.  Now the game is in Columbus, and while Ohio State won't be there, I can guarantee you that Ohio State fans who won't have any rooting interest in the games will make up at least 75% of the crowd.  2nd round you either get a team that underachieved (or was in a stacked Conference - Big East) and got seeded 11th (Marquette last year, Washington when they beat Marquette) or a tough 6 seed.  Last year 2 3 seeds lost in the 2nd round (both to 11 seeds).  1 1 seed was knocked off in the 2nd round, but that was to Butler and Brad Stevens does magic.  Butler will not be an 8 seed this year, so there is no need to worry about him (although they could be a 14...).  Then in the 3rd round you play a 2 seed and being an underdog vs. playing a 4 seed and being fairly heavily favored still.  The 4 seeds this year will not be all that scary, while 2 seeds probably will (Missouri or Kansas, Ohio State and maybe Michigan State, Duke or North Carolina, and maybe Baylor.  I would much rather play a UNLV, Wichita State, Indiana, Florida, or Wisconsin type team than a 2 seed type team, regardless of where the game is.  And then if we were a 3 seed in St. Louis and were able to make it to the Elite Eight, we would be playing Kansas in St. Louis.  No thanks.  I'll take my chances against a 2 seed on a neutral court.

[tower912]

Warriors10 nailed it.   It isn't impossible to get a 1, but the path is so difficult and requires so much help that is not worth talking about.   Finish strong, get a 2-3, take your chances. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Kentucky and Syracuse are locks for 1-seeds. Duke, Kansas, and Michigan St. would all basically have to lose 3 straight for MU to even be in the discussion for a #1.

[wadesworld]

Warriors10 nailed it.   It isn't impossible to get a 1, but the path is so difficult and requires so much help that is not worth talking about.   Finish strong, get a 2-3, take your chances. 

If we win out we will be a one seed.  The difficult party about it is the winning out.

Duke/UNC play each other once in the regular season and then have the ACC Tournament.  At least one will be knocked below us, could be both if the winner of the regular season game doesn't win the ACC Tournament.  Michigan State plays at Indiana and vs. Ohio State and then has the Big 10 Tournament.  Chances are good that they will lose at least one in there and we jump them.  Kansas has the Big 12 Tournament where they will probably have to play Iowa State in the semifinals (lost to them once this year) and Missouri in the finals (lost to them once this year).  If they lose one of those we jump them.

Winning out would leave us at 29-5, 2nd in the Big East, and Big East Tournament Champions, with wins over Georgetown (probably twice) and (probably) Syracuse, to go along with road wins over probably NCAA Tournament teams Cinci, UConn, and maybe even West Virginia over the last couple weeks of the season.  We would have won 18 out of 19 games and would be the hottest team going into the NCAA Tournament.  All of the teams above would have very similar records to us.

If many of the teams above us didn't play each other multiple times before the end of the season, then it would be pretty hard to see happening.  But just by them playing each other it's not like we need to pray for huge upsets.  If we win out, we get the 1 seed.  That is the hard part about it.

[TallTitan34]

I don't think it will happen, but I'd much rather have a 1 seed over a 2 or 3.

A 1 seed gets to play the 4 or worse in the Sweet Sixteen.