2 Seed possibilities in NCAA Tournament

[Mu2323]

There has been alot of talk around here lately about how we can or cant reach a 2 seed to im going to break it down on how we can. Obviously we would have to win out regular season and make it to the bet championship if not win it. Here are some key games to watch to for in the coming week or two.

1) Missouri @ kansas            Kansas is not going to slip out of the 2 seed at this point. Cheer for kansas to beat missouri and then have missouri lose again in the big 12 tournament.

2) North Carolina @ Duke      Duke will not fall past a 2 because of there impressive wins. Cheer for Duke and then for N.C to lose in the opening rounds of the ACC tournament.

3) Ohio St. @ Michigan St.      MSU has been all over ESPN lately and i just dont see them dropping although it could go either way. But whoever wins this game we want to win the B10 tournament so the other teams gets 2 loses. I will cheer for MSU since ohio st has lost more games lately. Cheer MSU and Ohio St to lose in the B10 Tournament.

[ErickJD08]

Wouldn't we have to win out except for the BE Championship game?

If we win out the regular season, I think we can get up to 6.  Losing in the BE championship game would probably keep us in the top 8. 

Call me crazy, but if we win out and beat Syracuse in the BE championship game, I can see us getting a 1 seed.  Obviously that depends on how the other teams play out but I think we have a shot.

[wadesworld]

Wouldn't we have to win out except for the BE Championship game?

If we win out the regular season, I think we can get up to 6.  Losing in the BE championship game would probably keep us in the top 8. 

Call me crazy, but if we win out and beat Syracuse in the BE championship game, I can see us getting a 1 seed.  Obviously that depends on how the other teams play out but I think we have a shot.

I agree and have been saying the same.  Being 29-5 and having won 18 out of 19 going into the NCAA Tournament, to go along with 2nd place in the Big East and Big East Tournament champions, we should be a 1 seed if teams that will play each other both in the regular season and conference tournaments (Kansas/Missouri/Baylor, Ohio State/Michigan State, Duke/UNC) beat up on each other.  Outside of Kentucky and Syracuse, less than 2 of those teams run the table the rest of the year, they would all have at least 5 losses on the season as well, and we would be the "hot" team going into the Tournament.

[Aughnanure]

Wouldn't we have to win out except for the BE Championship game?

If we win out the regular season, I think we can get up to 6.  Losing in the BE championship game would probably keep us in the top 8.  

Call me crazy, but if we win out and beat Syracuse in the BE championship game, I can see us getting a 1 seed.  Obviously that depends on how the other teams play out but I think we have a shot.

Can't see that happening. We would still have as many or more losses than KU, Cuse, Mizzou, UK, UNC, Duke and either Ohio St or Michigan St. Also can't see Cuse NOT getting a #1 seed and have a hard time feeling this is another year of the BEAST getting multiple 1 seeds.

It would be amazing to win out, but #2 is the absolute ceiling - and I would be freaking out if we got it. Though hopefully my 1000th post is just completely wrong in every way.

[ErickJD08]

I agree and have been saying the same.  Being 29-5 and having won 18 out of 19 going into the NCAA Tournament, to go along with 2nd place in the Big East and Big East Tournament champions, we should be a 1 seed if teams that will play each other both in the regular season and conference tournaments (Kansas/Missouri/Baylor, Ohio State/Michigan State, Duke/UNC) beat up on each other.  Outside of Kentucky and Syracuse, less than 2 of those teams run the table the rest of the year, they would all have at least 5 losses on the season as well, and we would be the "hot" team going into the Tournament.

Don't you think we have no room for error until the BE Championship game to get a 2?  I feel like if we drop any game before then, we don't have much of a chance of cracking the top 8.  I suppose we could win the BE tourney, but the margin for error is pretty tight.

[brewcity77]

Honestly, these games aren't as important as the other ones for these teams. Losing to a top-10 team at this point won't hurt your resume much. So what if Duke loses to UNC? At worst, they go from a low-1 to a high-2. UNC probably stays a 2. What will matter are the games they lose against teams outside the top-10, especially if it happens at home.

[Benny B]

Can't see that happening. We would still have as many or more losses than KU, Cuse, Mizzou, UK, UNC, Duke and either Ohio St or Michigan St. Also can't see Cuse NOT getting a #1 seed and have a hard time feeling this is another year of the BEAST getting multiple 1 seeds.

It would be amazing to win out, but #2 is the absolute ceiling - and I would be freaking out if we got it. Though hopefully my 1000th post is just completely wrong in every way.

If RPI is the end all, be all, there's little chance MU gets a 1-seed over Syracuse.

Assume the committee strongly relies - but is not dependent - upon RPI this year.  If MU wins out and beats Cuse in the BET, then there's a decent shot they get into the top-5 (currently #8).   If MU and Syracuse are both in the top-5 RPI on SS, that's so close that I just can't see them giving a #1 to Cuse but not MU simply based on the fact that MU just beat Cuse a few hours prior on a neutral floor.  If MU isn't in the top-5, then Syracuse probably gets the edge regardless of who beats who in the BET.

If RPI is generally ignored on SS, then they overall record and head-to-head is going to carry the weight... MU would then be 30-5 with one of those losses being to Cuse on their home floor, Syracuse is 32-2.  Look at MU's losses:

LSU - road loss almost immediately after Otule's injury.  There has to be some consideration there.
Vandy - home loss, but to a top-25 team.  Still just a couple weeks removed from Otule's injury (although Festus did play limited minutes).
G-Town - road loss, but MU split the series, each team winning at home.
Syracuse - same as above, except MU beat Cuse on a neutral court.
ND - road loss, same as Syracuse.

Basically, all of those losses are "explainable" even if they're not an excuse.  If the committee gave credit for MU's "good losses" in past years, there has to be some credit given for those five losses.  So with Syracuse, both have similar SOS, MU has a few minor blemishes (one of which is shared with Cuse) and MU has a "fresh" win on a neutral court.  Body of work aside, MU has lost once in over two months, Syracuse lost the night before... I don't think the committee can put Cuse ahead on the S-Curve if RPI isn't a determining factor.

I don't think MU can displace KY, but I do think that if they run the table, with those five losses, they can displace any of the others you mentioned for a 1-seed.

[MUWarrior11]

My two cents:

Run the table (including BET): #2 seed
Win last 3 BE games, lose one in BET: #3 seed
Lose 1/3 BE games, lose one in BET: #3 seed
Lose 2/3 BE games, lose one in BET: #4 seed
Lose 3/3 BE games, lose one in BET: #5 seed

[brewcity77]

There are a few things that could help get into the 1-line discussion:

• LSU wins out, and wins at least 1 game in the SEC Tourney, which would get their RPI into the top-50, giving us zero sub-50 losses.
  
• Washington, South Florida, and Ole Miss win out, all of whom could give us additional top-50 RPI wins if they move up a little. Unfortunately, Ole Miss and LSU play each other, best case scenario would be for Ole Miss to beat LSU and win one SEC Tourney game, then for LSU to go at least 2-1 in the SEC Tourney, which would nullify our sub-50 loss and give us another top-50 win.
  
• Win out, obviously. Currently we have no top-20 RPI wins. If we beat Georgetown and then Syracuse or GT in the BET, we would have 2.
  
• Have Louisville, UConn, and Wisconsin start winning, all of them could end up as top-20 RPI teams or 30-40 teams. We need the former for a 1-seed.

.
Right now, I think Syracuse and Kentucky are locks, and Michigan State, Kansas, and Duke all have resumes that crush ours. We're trying to match a resume with zero top-20 wins and only 5 top-50 wins against teams with 4-5 top-20 wins and 7-9 top-50 wins. If we're going to reach the top-line (highly unlikely) we need the teams we beat to play up just as much as we need ourselves to win out.

[ErickJD08]

I think we climb to 8. We win out and have a 1 seed.

[PGsHeroes32]

Id just love to get a 2 seed. Even a 3 would be great but a 2 would be awesome as it would eliminate any chance at meeting a KU, UNC, UK(if we were a 4) etc... til the elite 8.

There are only a few teams a feel we have little to no chance to beat, and being a 2 seed keeps us AWAY from them.

Gotta win out and maybe even win BET for that though.

[MuMark]

No real difference between a 2 and a 3.

We aren't getting a 1. We are almost locked into a 3 unless we lose out. A 2 might be possible with a really strong finish and some help.

[ErickJD08]

No real difference between a 2 and a 3.

We aren't getting a 1. We are almost locked into a 3 unless we lose out. A 2 might be possible with a really strong finish and some help.

Hate to start a pissing contest but why don't you think we can get a 1?  If we win out, we will be a top 4 team.

[brewcity77]

We aren't likely getting a 1, but if we win out, beating GT, UL, ND, and Cuse, that would give us 10 top-50 wins and we'd go in white hot. The West is up for grabs. If we'd won 17/18, had a top-5 RPI, and FSU, K-State, and Bucky managed to win conference tourneys over the teams we're battling for those spots, there's no reason we can't jump up. It's unlikely, but not unfathomable.

[seakm4]

we're a 4 seed.


I'm setting the bar very low so that way i can't be disappointed when I guarantee we get screwed.

[downtown85]

we're a 4 seed opposite Kentucky in the bracket.


I'm setting the bar very low so that way i can't be disappointed when I guarantee we get screwed.

Fixed.  This way you can be less disappointed if we really get a 4.   

[bilsu]

We are going to get a good seed. Most likely a three. I am more worried about which number 1 team bracket we get in. Based on conference affiliation and the fact that we were matched early with Syracuse last year, I believe we will not be put in same bracket as Syracuse. I would like to avoid Kentucky's bracket, but based on tournament history (most played matchup)we will be matched up with them.

[ATWizJr]

No real difference between a 2 and a 3.

We aren't getting a 1. We are almost locked into a 3 unless we lose out. A 2 might be possible with a really strong finish and some help.

The voice of reason. Exactly correct.

[brewcity77]

We are going to get a good seed. Most likely a three. I am more worried about which number 1 team bracket we get in. Based on conference affiliation and the fact that we were matched early with Syracuse last year, I believe we will not be put in same bracket as Syracuse. I would like to avoid Kentucky's bracket, but based on tournament history (most played matchup)we will be matched up with them.

First of all, let's look at the teams on the top 3 lines, league-by-league, in order of where they will be seeded on priority:

• Big East: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown
  
• ACC: Duke, North Carolina
  
• Big Ten: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
  
• Big 12: Kansas, Mizzou, Baylor
  
• SEC: Kentucky

Now, what the various regions want:

• East: Top seed will be Syracuse, 2 seed will be ACC or Big Ten
  
• Southeast: Top seed will be Kentucky or ACC, 2 seed will be ACC
  
• Midwest: Top seed will be Kentucky or Big 12, 2 seed will be Big Ten or Big 12
  
• West: Fourth top seed, one of the top 2 seeds will be a Big 12 team

Then it's important to consider that among the top three seed lines, none of the teams from the same conference will be in the same region. If I were guessing right now, based on yesterday, I'd say...

• East: 1-Syracuse, 2-Ohio State, 3-Baylor
  
• Southeast: 1-Kentucky, 2-Duke, 3-Marquette
  
• Midwest: 1-Kansas, 2-North Carolina, 3-Michigan
  
• West: 1-Michigan State, 2-Missouri, 3-Georgetown

I basically drafted the seeds. Syracuse getting the East is a no-brainer. Kansas moved ahead of MSU on the S-Curve yesterday by adding a 4th top-10 win, which gave them the Midwest (pushing UK to the Southeast) and kicked Michigan State from the Midwest to the West.

The Southeast got Duke, being the top 2-seed, that allowed them to play closest to home. tOSU is ahead of UNC, which gave them the East, and Mizzou filled the obligatory Big 12 spot in the West.

Marquette was the top 3, they couldn't go to the East (Syracuse) or Midwest (UNC), so they got the Southeast as it's closer than Phoenix and they have a good history with Kentucky. The others were easy. Michigan could only go to the Midwest (after MU filled their spot), then GT could only go to the West, and Baylor slotted perfectly into the East.

Just my guesses based on the S-Curve right now.

[JTBMU7]

The voice of reason. Exactly correct.

this is correct. our ceiling is 2, and that's why we should be motivated to keep winning. that gives us a better shot at getting into the St Louis bracket for the second round.

it's going to be tough, the top 8, according to Lunardi, are pretty much set... of the 8 below, who do we jump (assuming we jump GTown after their loss)...?

UK
SU
MSU
KU
Mizzou
OSU
Duke
UNC

[robmufan]

this is correct. our ceiling is 2, and that's why we should be motivated to keep winning. that gives us a better shot at getting into the St Louis bracket for the second round.

it's going to be tough, the top 8, according to Lunardi, are pretty much set... of the 8 below, who do we jump (assuming we jump GTown after their loss)...?

UK
SU
MSU
KU
Mizzou
OSU
Duke
UNC

I believe in his latest S-Curve Duke and UNC as shown above are the only 2 teams we could/would jump.  If they are both at the bottom, whoever wins the game next week between the two, we would want the other team to lose early in the tournament!

[San Diego Warrior]

Ohio St. could definitely drop - they play Wisconsin today, and I think that loss might even be enough to jump us over them.

[Goose]

I think if everything falls into place we are worthy of a 1 or but ultimately we fall short. Aside from LSU and Vandy mess we have played like a top ten most of the year. Because of LSU and Vandy loss we have been chasing to get top ten and that hurt us. Regardless of seed this team can make serious noise in NCAA.

[cheebs09]

I think people are reading the S-Curve wrong. Duke and UNC are the top 2 seeds. Ohio State and Missouri are the two that are closest to us.

I think it would be tough for us to drop to a 4 seed, we would need a big collapse. The 4 seed line showed Wisconsin, Indiana, Louisville and Florida State. I think at the moment, there is a pretty big gap between us and those teams. I think Louisville could jump us if we drop a few games and lose to them in the Big East Tournament though. Granted, this is all Lunardi's opinion, so it could be fairly different than what the committee is thinking right now. Winning out with wins over Georgetown, and then Cuse, ND or Georgetown in the tourney would make it tough to argue against us getting a 2. Especially if the above teams falter in their tournaments.

[Mu2323]

Granted the big east was alot stronger last year. But if 9th place uconn ran the table and got a 3 seed last year when they were a 7-10 seed going in can make that big of a jump, why cant marquette go from a 3 to a 2 if they win it?