South Florida Bulls in the Tourney?

[Aughnanure]

They're only 17-10 overall, but 10-4 now in the Big East -  what are their tourney chances? I keep seeing them left out of most brackets, but if they can go 2-2 in their final 4, can the tourney really keep out a 12-6 6th place Big East team? Unlucky for them, UConn won tonight and that will keep the selection committee salivating.

For a breath of fresh air, check out their board and their tourney talk. Makes you appreciate what Marquette has done year in and year out for the past decade. They are happy to just know they are in the NIT! I'll kinda be rooting for them..

http://thebullspen.com/index.php?/forum/25-south-florida-bulls-athletics-main-board/

[dwaderoy2004]

2-2 gets them in, i believe.

[chapman]

Don't think 12 wins can be left out - they have four good teams remaining and will have to beat two of them to make that happen.  Their schedule has been a double-edged sword - maybe the easy home-and-homes and getting the middling to weaker teams at home has helped them get to 10 wins, but they also played road games at MU, ND, GT, and have to go to SU and UL - that's all four of the teams ahead of them in the standings and the team right behind them - and none of those five road games came with a return trip to their place, where they've only lost once and would have been primed for the marquee wins they need to get in.

[PGsHeroes32]

No chance they get in at 2-2 unless both those wins are Cuse and UL. If they beat one of them they will need to win a lot of BET games. They just don't have the good wins, at all.

[BM1090]

No chance they get in at 2-2 unless both those wins are Cuse and UL. If they beat one of them they will need to win a lot of BET games. They just don't have the good wins, at all.

I understand this argument but don't think it will really matter this year. The bubble is terrible and spots are there for the taking. The Big East could reasonably (not likely) get ten bids.

[brewcity77]

I understand this argument but don't think it will really matter this year. The bubble is terrible and spots are there for the taking. The Big East could reasonably (not likely) get ten bids.

The bubble is terrible, but USF still isn't on it. Using Lunardi's bracket from yesterday, I took a look at USF's resume in comparison to the last three teams he projects as "in". The only thing they have in their favor is their Big East record. I projected USF as a 12-6 Big East team, putting them one win over their Pomeroy projection, then did the same with Northwestern, Seton Hall, and Miami.

USF comes in as the worst team in terms of overall record, RPI, quality wins, bad losses, record v top-50, and the computer rankings. The bubble may be soft, it just isn't USF soft. I think to get in, they need to go 3-1 and probably follow that up with 2 wins in the Big East tournament. They simply had a horrible run in the non-conference, and despite their Big East record, only have 1 top-50 win currently. They just aren't a tournament team right now.

South Florida
Record: 19-14 (12-6)
RPI: 55
SOS: 20
Quality Wins: 34 Seton Hall, (20 Louisville or 40 WVU)
Bad Losses: 119 Old Dominion, 125 Auburn, 132 Penn State
Record v Top 50: 2-8
Record v 51-100: 4-0
Kenpom Rating: 69
Sagarin Rating: 76

Northwestern
Record: 19-12 (9-9)
RPI: 36
SOS: 12
Quality Wins: 2 Michigan State, 34 Seton Hall, (7 Ohio State or 14 Michigan)
Bad Losses: None
Record v Top 50: 3-7
Record v 51-100: 3-4
Kenpom Rating: 50
Sagarin Rating: 49

Seton Hall
Record: 21-10 (10-8)
RPI: 32
SOS: 41
Quality Wins: 27 UConn, 40 West Virginia, 47 St. Joseph's, (13 Georgetown)
Bad Losses: 106 Villanova
Record v Top 50: 4-7
Record v 51-100: 3-1
Kenpom Rating: 46
Sagarin Rating: 45

Miami (FL)
Record: 20-10 (11-5)
RPI: 35
SOS: 38
Quality Wins: 3 Duke, (19 Florida State)
Bad Losses: None
Record v Top 50: 2-6
Record v 51-100: 4-3
Kenpom Rating: 42
Sagarin Rating: 46

[CTWarrior]

They are just a lucky team.  If you look at their conference wins

Rutgers - Not a postseason team
Villanova, at Villanova - Not a postseason team
Seton Hall - Home win vs bubble team by 1 (best conference win they have)
Saint Johns - Not a postseason team
at DePaul - Not a postseason team
Providence, at Providence - Not a postseason team
Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh - probably NIT team, and were terrible the first time they met

That is not an impressive set of victories.  Their 4 losses are by 3 at home to UConn, by 11 at ND, by 20 at MU and by 30 at Georgetown.  Non con games vs bubble teams or better are a 23 point loss at VCU and a 28 point loss at Kansas. 

It's a quirk of scheduling that their mirror opponents all turned out to be bad.  I suppose it is possible for them to get in, because any remaining regular season win they get from this point forward will be better than any win they have so far.

[nyg]

They have left:

Cuse
Louisville
Cincy
WVA

They may not win another game, maybe 1 and 3.  But for a team that went 3 and 15 one year ago, it was a nice  comeback season for them.  Good story, but no NCAA bid.  

[jficke13]

the big line I've been hearing over and over again lately is "the selection committee does not consider *conference* record at all." If that's really the case, then USF is  in trouble.

[brewcity77]

the big line I've been hearing over and over again lately is "the selection committee does not consider *conference* record at all." If that's really the case, then USF is  in trouble.

I don't know that they're in trouble, I just think they're a NIT team. For a program that went 7-6 in non-conference play, was 3-15 in league play a year ago, and never previously had a winning record in the Big East, that's pretty impressive.

Stan Heath's done a good job, and the future is starting to look bright. While Gilchrist, Robertson, and Anderson are all graduating, they return a great guard trio in Poland, Nash, and Collins. Toarlyn Fitzpatrick will be a senior next year and along with Victor Rudd form a solid pair in the front court. If incoming JUCO All-American C Waverly Austin (who picked USF over Kansas and Missouri) can pick up where Gilchrist left off, they could be in the NCAAs as soon as next year.

[bilsu]

Assume they go 2-2 with wins over Cincy and West Virginia. There is no way the NCAA can take Cincy and West Virginia over South Florida. Especially, since MU will also beat those two teams in the last four games.

[dwaderoy2004]

I understand all of the counter arguments.  But as others have pointed out, the scheduling quirk is not USF's fault.  They played who was put in front of them, and I think if they end up 12-6, even if the two wins are against Cincy and WVU, that gets them in, dependent on their performance in the BEAST tourney.  It's not like they skimped on their non-con schedule, as they have a non con SOS of 38, so the part of their schedule that they can control (something the committee looks at), they put together a difficult lineup (better than MU's).  The bad losses aren't crippling, and the RPI is a respectable 50, which may very well go up with two more wins against quality competition.  They would also be 8-4 in their last 12 if they split the last 4. 

It's is definitely an interesting case study, as the situation is pretty unique. 

[🏀]

College basketball and the bubble is very soft this year. No way does South Florida get left out if they finish with 12 wins, will not happen.

[CTWarrior]

Right now, they may not have a single win against a team that will make the tournament (it depends on whether Seton Hall makes it or not).  While the schedule isn't their fault, they've had some chances against good teams, but they've lost to every team they've played that's definitely going to make it, and in all but one case badly.  

On the other hand, if they win 2 of their last 4, then they will at least finally have some good wins regardless of who they come against.  IMO, they haven't beaten a team as good as any of the last four they have left to play.

[Benny B]

Goodman writes (and makes a good point):

http://bit.ly/zBkprh

IMO, USF is going to consume hours of the selection committee's precious time.