The race for 2nd

[brewcity77]

I'm changing this since we've clinched the double-bye to the race for 2nd place. It's starting to look pretty straight forward, with 3 teams in the mix.

• Providence
  
• DePaul
  
• St. John's
  
• Villanova
  
• Pittsburgh
  
• Rutgers
  
• Connecticut
  
• Seton Hall
  
• West Virginia
  
• Louisville
  
• South Florida (Due to tiebreaker)
  
• Cincinnati

.
Here is the day-by-day schedule of games to watch as we work toward the double-bye:

Sunday, Feb 19: Syracuse's win over Rutgers pushed them to the brink of a guaranteed double-bye, while USF's win over Pitt kept them in the running.
Tuesday, Feb 21: Seton Hall beat Georgetown to help inch MU closer to a double-bye, and also clinched the double-bye for Syracuse.
Wednesday, Feb 22: Marquette's win adds West Virginia to the list above, Syracuse's win pushed South Florida to the edge, and Notre Dame beating the 'Neers did us no favors in the race for 2nd.
Thursday, Feb 23: Cincinnati beat Louisville, which due to tiebreakers puts the Cardinals out.
Friday, Feb 24: Marquette's massive win at WVU has us with a school record 13 wins. USF has been eliminated from passing us on the tiebreaker.
Saturday, Feb 25: Notre Dame's loss puts Marquette into 2nd place alone, GT stays alive in the race with a win over 'Nova.
Sunday, Feb 26: USF clinches the double-bye for Marquette by beating Cincy!
Monday, Feb 27: Georgetown's win over Notre Dame didn't guarantee anything for Marquette, but did put the Warriors destiny squarely in their hands starting Wednesday.

Wednesday, Feb 29: Marquette @ Cincinnati
A Marquette win would clinch 2nd place.

Friday, Mar 2: Providence @ Notre Dame
If Providence wins, Marquette is guaranteed to finish no worse than in 3rd place.

Saturday, Mar 3: Georgetown @ Marquette
Senior Day. If it isn't locked up, a win guarantees second.

[muguru]

Actually, it's pretty simple really. If USF loses one more(probably today @ Pitt), UL beats Cincy Thursday, and MU beats Rutgers Wednesday and WVU friday, they will clinch a double bye.

[jsglow]

Great work as always Brew.  From my seat, I think I agree with you that the double-bye morphed from 'if' to 'when' with the big win yesterday.  MU is simply better than all the teams left on the schedule with the exception of Georgetown.  In my mind it is not unreasonable to think we'll go 3-1 down the stretch with a loss at one of the road games.  My goodness, 14-4 in conference if that's what plays out.  Assuming that were true, we'd be locked into at least the #4 seed.  Pretty impressive.

I think I'm now going to watch BEast basketball with an eye toward maximizing our bids.  So lets cheer for our brothers at Seton Hall, Cincy and UConn to play well enough down the stretch to solidify their bids.  I'm not saying I like these teams, but I'd rather have Cincy dancing than Illinois.  No way I cheer for West Virginia though.  They asked for and were granted divorce papers.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Great breakdown! I'd only modify that I am cheering against 'Cuse each game. Double bye will be huge but any way the chance of a BE championship (however unlikely) improves, I'm focused on that.

Great post

[jsglow]

I think our double-bye magic numbers are as follows:

South FLA: 3
Louis: 2
Cincy: 2
W. Virg. 1

[bilsu]

The way we are playing now, I would expect to win 3 out of 4. 2 home games and one on the road. I will be rooting for
South florida against Pitt. Pitt is done and I want the Big East to get as many bids as possible. This is a must win for South Florida.

[jsglow]

The way we are playing now, I would expect to win 3 out of 4. 2 home games and one on the road. I will be rooting for
South florida against Pitt. Pitt is done and I want the Big East to get as many bids as possible. This is a must win for South Florida.

South Florida has to go at least 3-2, possibly 4-1 to get real consideration.  A 4-1 mark would mean wins over Cincy, West Virginia, and either 'Cuse or Louisville.  If they can pull off the impossible, they'll be the 'feel good' story heading to NYC.

[NotAnAlum]

Right now I'm thinking 2-2, wining both home games.  A road win is certainly possible and for me in our final road games we're playing with house money.  The G-town game is a must win for preferred seeding.  I would really like to see us get either the 2 or 3 to avoid Syr until the final game.  It would be great to play in the BE Final.
Having said all this as much as I hate to do it I'd root for ND to beat G-town in their matchup.  I'm willing to conceed the #2 in exchange for assurance of the #3.  The thing we've got to stay away from is any tie with these teams in which G-town holds a win over ND.  Assuming ND beats G-town then our home game with G-town locks the 3 seed.  In fact any other G-town loss or a MU win on the road and we'd likely have #3 locked going into the G-town game.

[NavinRJohnson]

Yes.

[cheebs09]

Thanks for the info Brew. I have to say that this conversation is much more fun than the ones last year like this, except they were about our bubble competition.

[rocky_warrior]

I would really like to see us get either the 2 or 3 to avoid Syr until the final game. 

I guess if you just want to get to the final that's a good strategy, but since syracuse is so deep, I think we'd want to play them earlier in the tournament so that we have fresh legs.  Of course, you still have to get past them to get to the final, but for a better chance at beating them I'd prefer we played them earlier.  If we face them in the final after a couple days of games, I don't know if our guys could win that one.

[chapman]

I would really like to see us get either the 2 or 3 to avoid Syr until the final game.

Agree, but that's not the only thing.  If Louisville is the 5 seed which seems likely, the #4 has a terrible draw.  They would have to play Louisville, and if they win Syracuse in the semis.  The #3 might get to play Cincy, USF, or a team play their 3rd game in the quarterfinals and then Georgetown or ND in the semis - that's as nice a draw as any to get to the finals.

[NotAnAlum]

I'll take my chances facing them in the finals.  If you avoid them until the Final they have to play 2 pretty tough games to get there.  They could get beat by G-town who only lost by 3 to Syr in Syr.

[brewcity77]

No help from Rutgers in terms of catching Syracuse, and no help from Pitt to push USF further from the double-bye. Removed the Feb 18 game from the above list. Time to look at GT/SHU tomorrow, and then pull for Marquette to beat Rutgers and get closer to that double-bye, hopefully accompanied by an Irish loss.

[PGsHeroes32]

Just really need to win and get a 2 or 3 in the BET. I do not want to face Louisville in our 1st game.

[brewcity77]

Monster night tonight. Hoping for all my birthday wishes to come true. If Marquette wins, that makes it impossible for West Virginia to catch them and pushes the magic number of losses for opposing teams catching us from 8 to 7. If Syracuse beats USF, that gets them one step closer to 7, and if WVU beats ND, it puts us in the driver's seat to finish 2nd.

Here are Pomeroy's current projections for the Big East, with tiebreakers for seeding factored in:

1) Syracuse 16-2
2) Marquette 14-4
3) Notre Dame 13-5
4) Georgetown 12-6
5) Cincinnati 11-7
6) Louisville 11-7
7) South Florida 11-7
8) Seton Hall 10-8
9) Connecticut 9-9
10) West Virginia 9-9
11) Rutgers 6-12
12) St. John's 6-12
13) Pittsburgh 5-13
14) Villanova 5-13
15) Providence 3-15
16) DePaul 3-15

So Syracuse would get the winner of the (UConn/DePaul) v Seton Hall game, Marquette would get the winner of the (West Virginia/Providence) v South Florida game, Notre Dame would get the winner of the (Rutgers/Villanova) v Louisville game, and Georgetown would get the winner of the (St. John's/Pitt) v Cincinnati game.

[jesmu84]

Happy birthday Brew! any big plans? (other than watching the games)

[brewcity77]

Happy birthday Brew! any big plans? (other than watching the games)

Thanks, socr! The only plan was to sit courtside for the first time in my life, and it went flawlessly. The only annoying part was that this bald guy in a suit kept standing up in front of us, running around, and generally blocking our view. I swear, he was like a bee with all his buzzing around

Anyway...our win last night put WVU out of the mix for edging us to a double-bye. Now it's time to start thinking a bit about tiebreakers.

Right now, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Georgetown all have the edge on us due to head-to-head victories. In fact, any possible group we ended up in with any of those teams would have us losing out. Syracuse and ND because they have head-to-head victories and no losses to any other team that could end up in a 3+ team group with us and them, and Georgetown because the only way we can be grouped with them is if we lose to them at home and both finish 12-6.

Bottom line, we want Syracuse, ND, and GT to lose every time out, though we will want to root for Georgetown over ND because against the Hoyas we control our destiny, while against the Irish we do not.

So on to the next tier...Cincy, Louisville, and South Florida. Right now, we have the edge on all three. The only one that can match us is Cincy with a win next Wednesday. That makes the Cincy game huge, though it could be less so if Cincy loses to UL tonight and we beat WVU Friday. That would give us 13 wins and Cincy 6 losses, meaning they cannot catch us no matter what. Furthermore, we would know for certain that either South Florida or Louisville would be eliminated from passing us no later than Feb 29 because they play each other, which guarantees a 6th loss for one of them.

As of right now, we can clinch a double-bye on Friday with a win at WVU. For that to happen, we need Louisville to win tonight and Marquette to beat WVU tomorrow. Marquette's 13th win coupled with Cincy's 6th loss would knock out the Bearcats, and our head to head wins over USF and Louisville would ensure that we win any group with either team, even if we were grouped with Notre Dame or Georgetown, both of whom also swept USF and Louisville.

[brewcity77]

Due to Cincy holding on against Louisville, we cannot clinch the double-bye tonight. However, Louisville was eliminated as a team that could pass us for the double-bye. If we win tonight, USF will also be eliminated as a team that could pass us.

Right now, the earliest we could clinch a double-bye would be on Saturday, if we win tonight and Georgetown loses tomorrow. If GT won, we could still clinch Sunday with a USF win over Cincy. If we don't have it then, we'd have another chance Monday if GT lost at home to ND.

Of course, we still have our destiny in our own hands when we take on Cincy on Wednesday.

[brewcity77]

It's virtually locked in, but if any one of the following happens, we clinch the double-bye:

• Villanova beats Georgetown on Saturday
  
• USF beats Cincinnati on Sunday
  
• Notre Dame beats Georgetown on Monday
  
• Marquette beats Cincinnati on Wednesday
  
• Marquette beats Georgetown on Saturday
  
• Villanova beats Cincinnati on Saturday
  
• Notre Dame loses to St. John's, Georgetown, and Providence

[brewcity77]

Thanks, Bulls!

[brewcity77]

Modified this to suit our pursuit for 2nd place. Any win from here on out guarantees second, but two losses combined with a ND win would see us finish in 4th. Let's hope to seal the deal on Wednesday at Cincy.

[MarquetteDano]

Modified this to suit our pursuit for 2nd place. Any win from here on out guarantees second, but two losses combined with a ND win would see us finish in 4th. Let's hope to seal the deal on Wednesday at Cincy.

On top of the importance in winning one of the two next games for a Big East two seed, I think we need to win one of two to be comfortable to get at least a three seed in the NCAA tourney, which is even more important.  Sure we could lose the next two then win the BET and still get a three seed but don't want to be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Four Seed = potentially playing a five seed near their backyard in third round + playing one seed most assuredly in their backyard in the Sweet Sixteen.

[Lennys Tap]

Modified this to suit our pursuit for 2nd place. Any win from here on out guarantees second, but two losses combined with a ND win would see us finish in 4th. Let's hope to seal the deal on Wednesday at Cincy.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the worst we can finish is 2nd. Hope it's all by ourselves, which means we'll also get the #2 seed.

[CTWarrior]

On top of the importance in winning one of the two next games for a Big East two seed, I think we need to win one of two to be comfortable to get at least a three seed in the NCAA tourney, which is even more important. 

After Kentucky, there are a lot of teams of similar quality, IMO (Syracuse, UNC, Duke, Kansa, Missouri, Baylor, Michigan State, Ohio State, us).  Being a 3/4 doesn't matter as much to me because you're likely to get one of those in Sweet 16 round either way.  More important is to not be in the Kentucky region.  I'd also like to avoid UNC.  I basically want to avoid long, talented athletic teams that are comfortable at our pace for as long as possible.  Give them more chances to be upset by someone like Wisconsin whose style could throw them off.