Is the S16 a bust this year?

[JD]

Hello fellow Fanatics!

So I was reading a few blogs on CBS sports, and this one gentleman brought up the fact that getting to the Sweet 16 for teams like Duke, UNC, Ohio State, etc is a down year.

Considering Marquette is ranked higher then 16 in the polls, would it be considered a "down year" if we only made it to that level?

To me, no..however I was just curious on everybody else's perspective.

[bilsu]

We are not ranked in the top 8 and therefore should not expect to get past the sweet 16. That does not mean we won't, but it is not expected. I would be dissappointed, if we lost in the first round.

[JD]

So similar question, would you rather be a 2 seed and play farther away, or have a 3 seed and possibly play in Columbus or somewhere close?

[Abode4life]

I would say it depends on our draw.  If we lose to a Cinderella or get blown out like last year, yes.  If we face a legit opponent and it's a tough match up, I'd still be upset that we lost, but it wouldn't make the season a disappointment.  

[jsglow]

I'd never be unhappy with a Sweet 16 run.  What, we've got 3 of them in the last 20 years?

[Warriors10]

If we lose in the S16 or E8 to a 7 or below seed than yes.

[tower912]

Any sweet 16 run is a good one at this point.   Only a few programs, Duke, UNC, Sparty, Kentucky, would consider that a down year.   We aren't there yet.    10 years from now, in year 14 of the Buzz dynasty, after  three final 4's in 5 years, it will be considered a down year.   

[IrwinFletcher]

I always feel that if we make the Sweet 16, it is a Great year.  After that, it is such a crap shoot.  You catch a hot team, you play a bad game, you get a bad match up etc...

Lets not forget we were an 11 seed last year and beat a 3 seed.  stuff like that happens.

The nice part of getting a 3 or 4 seed means you should have a high likelihood that you win your first game at least...

[chapman]

A "down year"?  Hell no.  Is it a disappointing tournament run if we don't at least hold our seed, which as of now is a 3 or 4?  Yes. 

[dwaderoy2004]

Agreed.  If we end up a protected seed, anything less than the sweet 16 would be a disappointment.

[NavinRJohnson]

If you get to the sweet 16 orenter the tournament with a top 4 seed, it's a successful season (even if you get upset in the first 2 rounds with that top 4 seed. Sometimes you get upset).

[godzilla]

If you get to the sweet 16 orenter the tournament with a top 4 seed, it's a successful season (even if you get upset in the first 2 rounds with that top 4 seed. Sometimes you get upset).

How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?

[chapman]

How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?

Yeah, I think the Pitt fans are sick of getting top seeds and choking.  I'd feel the same way.  We've had some seasons where it really is successul ('06, '10) despite losing in the first round with a better seed, but it's different when the team greatly outperforms expectations to get there.  A top four seed might be overachiving, but we expected to make the tournament and at least win a game in it from the beginning - getting a better seed and thus an easier path makes it a little disappointing to not advance.

[CTWarrior]

I'd never be unhappy with a Sweet 16 run.  What, we've got 3 of them in the last 20 years?

By my count 3 Sweet 16s in the last 32 seasons.  Getting to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament is not a disappointing season by any stretch.  It would take at least a half dozen consecutive top 10 seasons before I'm jaded enough to call a sweet 16 season a disappointment.

[NavinRJohnson]

How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?

How is it not? If you enter the tournament as a 4 seed but lose in the first or second round, does it make you any worse than you were before the tournament started, or did you just lose a game? Disappointing? Sure, but is playing and losing that one additional game really the thing that makes a season successful? Pretty sure I couldn't name 8 of last year's sweet 16.

One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?

[esotericmindguy]

How is it not? If you enter the tournament as a 4 seed but lose in the first or second round, does it make you any worse than you were before the tournament started, or did you just lose a game? Disappointing? Sure, but is playing and losing that one additional game really the thing that makes a season successful? Pretty sure I couldn't name 8 of last year's sweet 16.

One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?

I'm having a hard time figuring out your point, he said first round not first or second round....and "One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?" Again, not what he said.

When you consider yourself a top 20 program then getting the tournament is to be expected 95% of the time, Wisconsin has made it 14 straight years. I consider Marquette to be on their level (a tad better because I'm biased). So yeah, losing in the first round is extremely disappointing....I find it even more disappointing that you don't feel the same way.

[bamamarquettefan]

Currently even though we are ranked 12/13, we are given a 43% chance of making the Sweet 16, a 5% chance of making the Final Four, and just below a 1% chance of being national champions on Lunardi's latest odds.

So I would say that objectively, making the Sweet 16 is a big success this year because we have overcome the odds as there is a slightly better chance we are at home on the second weekend.

I know it sounds like the Top 16 teams should be better than 50-50, but typically some of them aren't just because of how close teams are bunched.  You may have a 53% chance of winning your second game, but if you also had only an 80% chance of winning even an easy first game, overall the odds are below 50-50 that you win both.

So I would encourage people to think of a Sweet 16 as a big success, even if we don't take the huge next step to go Elite 8.

Subjectively, I think that losing the first weekend will be viewed as a huge disappointment even though there is a better than 50-50 that happens.  All the disappointments about the Three Amigos never making the Sweet 16, whether you view it as them being overrated or simply bad luck with injuries, is now coupled with last year's team becoming only the 2nd No. 11 seed to make the Sweet 16 I believe.  So even though this year the team has taken a big step forward over last year's team, a 2nd round loss would throw all that out the window for many fans.

[77ncaachamps]

Sweet 16 is the realistic goal.

Anything else is gravy.

[NavinRJohnson]

So yeah, losing in the first round is extremely disappointing....I find it even more disappointing that you don't feel the same way.

Except for the fact that I clearly said it would be "disappointing." it just doesn't make your season a bust. If you are a team like Marquette, and you spend the majority of the season in the Top 15 or so, you've had a successful year.

[GGGG]

To put another wrinkle on it, what if Marquette win the Big East tournament, enters as a 3 seed, and then loses to the 6 seed in the round of 32.  I certainly wouldn't call the season a bust...I mean it would be a disappointing ending...but not a bust.

I don't think you can judge an entire season by how you perform in the NCAA tournament.  This is one problem I have with sports fans.  The journey should be enjoyed.  It may have a disappointing ending, but that doesn't mean the journey itself wasn't fun.  It's like the MU fans and the 2003 Final Four run.  Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time.  But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game.  Yet for many fans, the first thing I hear when discussing the Final Four is the Kansas game.

Fan like that will never be happy unless they win a championship.  And I would rather enjoy the journey and have fun along the way rather than being disappointed 99% of the time.

[brewcity77]

To put another wrinkle on it, what if Marquette win the Big East tournament, enters as a 3 seed, and then loses to the 6 seed in the round of 32.  I certainly wouldn't call the season a bust...I mean it would be a disappointing ending...but not a bust.

I'd be very happy with winning the Big East tournament, but I would definitely hope for that to be a precursor to more success. In the past five years, the Big East tournament champ has gone to the Final Four three times and only once (Pitt 2008) failed to reach the Elite Eight.

But if I could only have one, I'd take Big East tournament win over Elite Eight appearance any day.

[gmhfordham1015]

If we win the Big east tournament i could see a posible 2 seed if we win 4 of the next 5 as well.

[MUMac]

I don't think you can judge an entire season by how you perform in the NCAA tournament.  This is one problem I have with sports fans.  The journey should be enjoyed.  It may have a disappointing ending, but that doesn't mean the journey itself wasn't fun.  It's like the MU fans and the 2003 Final Four run.  Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time.  But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game.  Yet for many fans, the first thing I hear when discussing the Final Four is the Kansas game.

While I agree with your comments, history has a different way of viewing things.  Over a few years, people remember Conference Championships (Regular and Post Season), NCAA berth's, Sweet 16's, Elite 8's and Final 4's.

MU could finish 28-7, with the losses in the BE Championship and NCAA 1st game, and historically it will be remembered as an NCAA Team.  Harsh, but that is the way it get's remembered.  Not by the diehards, but to the rest of the populice.

[Rudy]

It all depends on matchups. Sometimes you just get screwed.

[CTWarrior]

Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time.  But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game. 

For me, as a player and a fan, losing always feels worse than winning feels good.  I hate losing more than I like winning.  Crappy outlook, I know, but that's how I'm wired.