[Cracked Sidewalks] Tossups and white knucklers

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Tossups and white knucklers

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Tim Blair)

With a convincing win over Cincinnati on Saturday, Marquette moved to 21-5 on the season and a gaudy 10-3 record in the Big East. Despite devastating injuries to their front line, Buzz Williams' crew has run off nine wins in their last ten games, the program's best stretch since joining the Big East.

The latest Pomeroy numbers pulled MU up to #19 with a projected final record of 24-7 overall and 13-5 in Big East play. With a week to prepare for the next game, a roadie at UConn, this sounds reasonable given the current pace, no?

However, a closer look at the final five games shows that the Warriors are heading into the most uncertain stretch of the season. Four of the last five games are toss-ups per Pomeroy, who currently predicts four one-point games in the season's final two weeks.

• Loss @ UConn, 71-70 (49% certainty)
• Win vs. Rutgers, 75-62 (87% certainty)
• Loss @ WVU, 74-73 (49% certainty)
• Win @ Cincy, 71-70 (50% certainty)
• Win vs. Georgetown 67-66 (55% certainty)

The toss-ups are punctuated by three road games including back-to-back tilts against West Virginia and Cincinnati. Marquette has handled itself very well on the road this season, claiming three conference wins away from home to go with its signature road over the Badgers in December and a handful of neutral site wins.

While the KenPom numbers say 'tossup' there is more reason for optimism than not even though MU has a depleted roster at this point. Counting the road game at Villanova, MU has reeled off wins in four of the last five. This stretch corresponds to the Davante Garnder injury which many thought could derail the season, but ultimately saw MU once again demonstrate the fortitude that has long characterized the program.

Marquette was already one of the smaller teams in the nation prior to Gardner's injury. In addition, there was also the very real concern about the loss of Gardner’soffensive repertoire, one of the most efficient on the team and in the Big East.

Still, despite the vertically-challenged roster, opponents' height, quality and defensive efficiency have largely not mattered as Williams' crew has shown a great capacity for adjustment and improvement throughout the season.

For example when the Warriors hosted Seton Hall, the 63rd tallest team in the nation and one of the Big East's top defensive units, the Pirates only mustered a 43.7% eFG which was better than MU’s defensive average for the season. Marquette also tuned up the Pirates delivering 1.18 point per possession (ppp) in the decisive second half while holding SHU to just 0.83. (*note that 1.00 is the normalized average).

On Saturday the Warriors hung 95 points on the Bearcats thanks to an eye-popping 1.35 ppp against one of the conference's better defenses. Marquette shot 62.5% eFG% against an opponent that typically allows 0.91 ppp and 45.8%, respectively. And the Warriors held UC to just 0.92 ppp in the first half ... all the more remarkable considering that Cincy roared out to a 16-4 lead.

Obviously, this team is still improving despite the injury bug -- and in more areas than expected. In our Tweet stream on Saturday, Rob noted that MU’s turnover rate was 10% against Cincinnati --- the third-straight game with with elite ball protection (12.5%, 12.5%, 10%).

Tossups or not – Gardner or not -- MU will be a tough out in these last five games thanks to a deep, talented rotation and sound strategies on both sides of the ball which ultimately run well with just about any roster combination coach Buzz Williams chooses.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/tossups-and-white-knucklers.html

[nyg]

I for one would be very happy with a 3-2 record in next five games.  It would almost guarantee a 3/4 seed in the BE tournament. 

[dwaderoy2004]

I would be disappointed with anything less than 3-2.

[jsglow]

I personally consider this a sign of real strength.  On the road at Storrs and Morgantown and our Warriors are considered tossups?  I'm sure that's never been true before in our history in the BEast.  Play on. 

[Henry Sugar]

Notre Dame (currently 9-3); Prediction of 13-5
Rutgers   W, 65-57   80%   Home       
Villanova   L, 69-68   48%   Away       
West Virginia   W, 67-63   63%   Home       
St. John's   W, 67-62   67%   Away       
Georgetown   L, 63-55   19%   Away       
Providence   W, 71-61   82%   Home   

Summary:  Best comparable record.  Middle difficulty on stretch record.  Watch for @Nova and @GU

Georgetown (currently 9-4); Prediction of 13-5
Providence   W, 70-62   78%   Away       
Seton Hall   W, 61-58   64%   Away       
Villanova   W, 74-61   88%   Home       
Notre Dame   W, 63-55   81%   Home       
Marquette   L, 67-66   43%   Away       

Summary:  A game behind but an easier schedule down the stretch.  Watch for @SHU and ND

Louisville (currently 8-4); Prediction of 12-6
Syracuse   L, 69-66   40%   Home       
DePaul   W, 82-71   80%   Away       
Cincinnati   L, 65-64   47%   Away       
Pittsburgh   W, 71-62   82%   Home       
South Florida   W, 64-54   85%   Home       
Syracuse   L, 73-62   17%   Away       

Summary:  UL might be playing the best of any team listed, but they're a game behind and with the toughest schedule down the stretch. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I personally consider this a sign of real strength.  On the road at Storrs and Morgantown and our Warriors are considered tossups?  I'm sure that's never been true before in our history in the BEast.  Play on. 

Also I think it is a plus that the UCONN game is in Hartford, not in Storrs.  With the Huskies faltering, Calhoun out and the negative program news, will the fans come from off campus?  This was a team who in the early rounds of the NCAA's couldn't fill their ticket allotments.  Drummond also has a bad ankle...so MU may be hitting them at the right time for a roadie.

[79Warrior]

Also I think it is a plus that the UCONN game is in Hartford, not in Storrs.  With the Huskies faltering, Calhoun out and the negative program news, will the fans come from off campus?  This was a team who in the early rounds of the NCAA's couldn't fill their ticket allotments.  Drummond also has a bad ankle...so MU may be hitting them at the right time for a roadie.

Or just the opposite. The team gets fired up and looks to knock off MU for a big home win. Never underestimate how the UCONN kids will espond.

[Henry Sugar]

UConn has played two good games in the last six weeks (Notre Dame, Seton Hall).  Everything else has been a festival of crap.

I think the formula is pretty simple.  They come out strong and jump to a big early lead.  I'm sure that will surprise everyone.  Marquette roars back.  UConn folds like a bunch of hairy wet cats.

[robmufan]

UConn has played two good games in the last six weeks (Notre Dame, Seton Hall).  Everything else has been a festival of crap.

I think the formula is pretty simple.  They come out strong and jump to a big early lead.  I'm sure that will surprise everyone.  Marquette roars back.  UConn folds like a bunch of hairy wet cats.

Why waste our time...spot them 10 take 5 minutes off the clock and give us the ball...maybe give us 1 less timeout

[jsglow]

Also I think it is a plus that the UCONN game is in Hartford, not in Storrs.

Ah, thanks Doc.  Could be quiet in Hartford.  Maybe almost a neutral court situation if our eastern alums buy up some tickets.

[Henry Sugar]

Why waste our time...spot them 10 take 5 minutes off the clock and give us the ball...maybe give us 1 less timeout

I'm going to steal this and tweet it.

[CTWarrior]

No way a netural court situation for UConn.  Last year probably 20-1 UConn/Marq fans ratio and UConn was struggling then, too.  The HCC (or whatever they call it these days) is not nearly as loud as Gampel, though.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

My 10-yr old professes to be ready to yell "Miss it!" on UConn free throw attempts.  You can hear that at the XL (HCC) Center.

[robmufan]

I'm going to steal this and tweet it.

Saw that!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Why waste our time...spot them 10 take 5 minutes off the clock and give us the ball...maybe give us 1 less timeout

why stop there...presoak Buzz's shirt to create sweat stains just like McDonald's creates simulated ribs in the McRib.

[robmufan]

why stop there...presoak Buzz's shirt to create sweat stains just like McDonald's creates simulated ribs in the McRib.

Did anyone else see Cronin rip his jacket off and throw it saturday? it was comical!

[TallTitan34]

Did anyone else see Cronin rip his jacket off and throw it saturday? it was comical!

It was a great toss.  He was walking towards his team and flung it back.  It slid nicely all the way to the bench.