Bubble Watch has arrived!

[Windyplayer]

Yes, it's true and Marquette "should be in." Fair enough considering we're only midway through the conference season. Is the excerpt below from MU's analysis flawed logic or is it just me?

"There's almost no chance this team misses the tournament, and absolutely zero chance Buzz Williams and Co. will spend any time reprising the sweaty bubble worries of the past two campaigns."

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Is the excerpt below from MU's analysis flawed logic or is it just me?

MU is 18-4 with 3 of the losses @Syracuse, @Gtown, and Vandy.  Looking at the schedule ahead, it's tough to say that MU won't hit 22 wins.  

Part of the problem is what "bubble watch" is supposed to be.  As the author says, "In recent years, we've been overly cautious when including a team in "locks" and "should be in," because throughout February and March we like to move teams closer and closer to "lock" status -- not the other way around. This season, we'll still apply caution, but we also plan to strive for pragmatism whenever possible. "  If Syracuse, who is 22-1, lost every remaining game (including @SJU, USF, @ Rutgers, and a sweep by UCONN), they would likely still be in a good place and would get into the tournament.  If MU goes into a tailspin and finishes with 22 wins, we could miss the tournament, but we still should be in.  But I agree that, barring a collapse, MU should be in and there's a miniscule chance of finishing on the bubble.

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Maybe a better example is Creighton.  They're a "lock" and are sitting at 20-2.  Given their strength of schedule, it probably wouldn't take much for them to drop out of "lock" status.  A loss to Illinois State wouldn't help, and they have two left against Evanston.

In the same way, Marquette is right on the brink of "lock" and "should be in," but it's obviously still possible to finish on the bubble.  It's just a very, very small chance.

[Ari Gold]

I pretty much agree with Mister. 22 wins means we lose 5 of the last 9. If we lose 4 or more of the last 9 that will be an incredible disappointment. However with a huge run in the BET we could crawl our way back in.
A strong finish to the end of the season even if we bow out early in the BET will still land us in the NCAA, albeit not a great seeding

[PGsHeroes32]

Yes, it's true and Marquette "should be in." Fair enough considering we're only midway through the conference season. Is the excerpt below from MU's analysis flawed logic or is it just me?

"There's almost no chance this team misses the tournament, and absolutely zero chance Buzz Williams and Co. will spend any time reprising the sweaty bubble worries of the past two campaigns."

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Ha I found that flawed as well. Almost no chance we miss the tourney, but ABSOLUTLY ZERO chance we have bubble worries? Id like to think if we end up missing the tourney we also sweat on the bubble.

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

That's what I get for skimming the excerpt.  Yes, that makes no sense.  I'm sure he got it backwards: There's absolutely zero chance this team misses the tournament [a bit strong, but we'll call it hyperbole] and almost no chance we reprise the sweatiness of TBW.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I pretty much agree with Mister. 22 wins means we lose 5 of the last 9. If we lose 4 or more of the last 9 that will be an incredible disappointment. However with a huge run in the BET we could crawl our way back in.
A strong finish to the end of the season even if we bow out early in the BET will still land us in the NCAA, albeit not a great seeding

Meh. If MU were to finish league play strong (6-3) or better, and lose in the first round of the tournament...theyre still going to have a pretty good seed.

[tower912]

Losing 5 our of our last 9 in league still gets us to 11 IC wins and 22 overall.    Lock.  Stone cold.   Not the seed we want, but still a lock.   

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

I don't know if I'd go as far as to call it a "stone cold lock," but I think we'd probably get in with 22.  Don't forget that the conference tournaments still have to play out... we have no idea yet how many at-large bids are available.

[Henry Sugar]

Yes, it's true and Marquette "should be in." Fair enough considering we're only midway through the conference season. Is the excerpt below from MU's analysis flawed logic or is it just me?

"There's almost no chance this team misses the tournament, and absolutely zero chance Buzz Williams and Co. will spend any time reprising the sweaty bubble worries of the past two campaigns."

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Marquette has a >95% of finishing with 11+ wins
They have a >85% of finishing with 12+ wins
MU has a 65% of finishing with 13 wins or more
Heck... the Warriors have a 35% of getting 14+ wins!

I don't think it's flawed at all.  "almost no chance this team misses the tournament"*

*depends on injuries / etc

[tower912]

I can think of one 280 lb reason that this all falls apart......