[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Jan. 21

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Bracketology: Jan. 21

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

It's early. Really early. But the way I see it, the best way to have an accurate feel for what might happen come March is to have an idea of what was going on in the months before March. I decided to take a stab at my own version of bracketology. I've used a compilation of RPI, SOS, Pomeroy and Sagarin computer rankings, Record v Top-100, good wins, bad losses, and non-conference SOS. Before analyzing, here's the bracket:






The Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids. The Big East is just behind them with 8. Both the Big 12 and SEC have 5 bids, the ACC and C-USA each have 4, and the A-10, Mountain West, and West Coast have 3 apiece. The only other multi-bid leagues are the Missouri Valley and Pac-12 with 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Southern Miss, Minnesota, and Florida State. The last four teams into the field were BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and UCF. The lowest RPI team to make the field was #85 Cincinnati while the lowest KenPom team to make the field was #93 UCF.

The first four teams out were Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Mississippi, and Northern Iowa. The next four out were St. Louis, LSU, Arizona, and Oregon. The highest RPI team snubbed was #39 Northern Iowa while the highest KenPom team snubbed was #16 St. Louis.

From a Marquette perspective, I feel this would be a decent draw, if somewhat predictable. I'd almost be surprised if MU didn't see Indiana by the Round of 32. I contemplated a first-round match-up with Stanford, but felt Creighton should really be up against a BCS-conference team. Kentucky looms large in the Sweet 16, but clearly that one would have Warrior fans confident considering the history of the two programs

I also tried to have some of the typical NCAA humor we see on Selection Sunday outside of the Crean v Marquette rematch. Hope if nothing else, it provides a bit of enjoyment, and I'll be updating this as the season goes on.
table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/bracketology-jan-21.html

[🏀]

Give me Norfolk St. over Michigan St. and I will laugh all the way to the sportsbook on that one.

[wadesworld]

Bracketology: Jan. 21

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

It's early. Really early. But the way I see it, the best way to have an accurate feel for what might happen come March is to have an idea of what was going on in the months before March. I decided to take a stab at my own version of bracketology. I've used a compilation of RPI, SOS, Pomeroy and Sagarin computer rankings, Record v Top-100, good wins, bad losses, and non-conference SOS. Before analyzing, here's the bracket:






The Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids. The Big East is just behind them with 8. Both the Big 12 and SEC have 5 bids, the ACC and C-USA each have 4, and the A-10, Mountain West, and West Coast have 3 apiece. The only other multi-bid leagues are the Missouri Valley and Pac-12 with 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Southern Miss, Minnesota, and Florida State. The last four teams into the field were BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and UCF. The lowest RPI team to make the field was #85 Cincinnati while the lowest KenPom team to make the field was #93 UCF.

The first four teams out were Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Mississippi, and Northern Iowa. The next four out were St. Louis, LSU, Arizona, and Oregon. The highest RPI team snubbed was #39 Northern Iowa while the highest KenPom team snubbed was #16 St. Louis.

From a Marquette perspective, I feel this would be a decent draw, if somewhat predictable. I'd almost be surprised if MU didn't see Indiana by the Round of 32. I contemplated a first-round match-up with Stanford, but felt Creighton should really be up against a BCS-conference team. Kentucky looms large in the Sweet 16, but clearly that one would have Warrior fans confident considering the history of the two programs

I also tried to have some of the typical NCAA humor we see on Selection Sunday outside of the Crean v Marquette rematch. Hope if nothing else, it provides a bit of enjoyment, and I'll be updating this as the season goes on.
table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/bracketology-jan-21.html

That would be an awesome bracket for us.  I don't think Duke's ceiling is one of the top 4 in the country.  Creighton will be an awful 4, their schedule is an absolute joke.  Georgetown is a really weak 3 and my guess is they fall off this season.  Same for Indiana at 5 and UNLV at 3.  WVU would be tough.  Kansas and Kentucky obviously good.  My guess is Kansas wins the Big 12 and gets a 1 seed (hard to see how Baylor is a 1 seed above them when Kansas just blew them out).

East Region seems like it would be very weak.  I see SH falling off, Virginia falling off, and MSU I personally think is overrated, but they will stay up there.  I don't think Murray State or Alabama will make the Sweet 16 if they match up with other 4 or 5s.  The West region would be BRUTAL!  Out of Baylor, Vandy, UConn, and UNC I think Baylor has the least chance of making a Final Four.  If Vandy, UConn, and UNC all are in different region, I could see all 3 of those making the Final Four.  Vandy will work it's way up into a top 3 seed (I think they win the SEC, so probably even top 2).  UConn will continue to be up and down as they are young, but their ceiling is high, and UNC I think has the highest ceiling in the country by a decent margin.  They will put it all together at the end of the season just like they did last year.

Fun to look at.

[brewcity77]

I had a lot of fun with making the match-ups. Syracuse is guaranteed to play another New York team coming out of the play-in game, Murray State could take on former coach Mick Cronin if Cincy wins their play-in, Memphis plays cross-state rival Middle Tennessee, and Pitino takes on Donovan. Also, three games are reduxes of classic NCAA upsets -- UNC/Weber State, Kansas/Bucknell, and Georgetown/Davison. And if Kansas survives, they possibly face their own cross-state rival in Wichita State in the second round.

[brewcity77]

My thoughts for wades...

I agree on Duke and Baylor, but right now just can't put them below the top line. Duke has played a brutal schedule and both losses were true road games against tourney teams. Baylor's record is too good to ignore, and despite the loss at Kansas, it was a true road game and they don't have any questionable losses, like KU had against Davidson.

In this field, after the top two lines, I feel there's a lot of parity. Most of the 3-6 seeds are very, very close. I could see almost any of those teams moving up as high as a 2 or as low as an 8.

The weakness of the East region is largely because Syracuse is the overall #1 seed, which gave them my second lowest 2-seed (MSU) and lowest 3 and 4 (Virginia and Murray State). I also tried to keep them away from the other top Big East teams, which meant GTown, MU, and UConn were headed elsewhere.

The West is definitely tough. UNC is currently the last 2-seed, but that's largely reflective of the FSU loss. I think they'll play up, but couldn't put them in a bracket with Virginia or Duke. Personally, I think Missouri could fall off as well. They have played a really weak schedule to build their record, with their best win being Illinois. UConn has 1-seed talent, but likely won't put it together until March. Vandy I definitely think will move up. Initially I had the Commodores in the 7-9 range, but the more I looked at what they've done in the past month, the more they moved up. I could see them being a 2 or 3 by the time Selection Sunday rolls around.

Finally, I agree that it's a pretty good bracket for Marquette. I toyed with the idea of Stanford in the first round, but wanted Creighton to take on a BCS team, so I gave us Iona. Indiana would be tough, but they haven't beat anyone away from home of significance. Kentucky is a really tough test, but who doesn't remember 2003 and 2008? Kansas would really worry me -- how do we account for Thomas Robinson?

[wadesworld]

I had a lot of fun with making the match-ups. Syracuse is guaranteed to play another New York team coming out of the play-in game, Murray State could take on former coach Mick Cronin if Cincy wins their play-in, Memphis plays cross-state rival Middle Tennessee, and Pitino takes on Donovan. Also, three games are reduxes of classic NCAA upsets -- UNC/Weber State, Kansas/Bucknell, and Georgetown/Davison. And if Kansas survives, they possibly face their own cross-state rival in Wichita State in the second round.

Cincinnati has a shot at taking 2nd in the Big East.  To me I don't think they'll have to worry about a play in game by the end of the year.  A couple of early season bad losses, but also a couple of really good wins lately.  They're really good.

Again, fun to look at.  Will be interesting to see how things play out.  I still have no idea if Marquette is the 2nd best team in the Big East or 10th best team.  I think it's closer to 2nd, but if we're being honest we're 0-2 against top 5 teams and 4-0 against bottom 6 teams.  And the same uncertainty can be said for everyone outside of Syracuse really.

[brewcity77]

Cincy's a team that I think will spark a lot of debate. Looking at 50webs, Cincy is only included in 24 of the 38 brackets. Here's what I looked at regarding their profile:

RPI: 82
SOS: 96
Non-con SOS: 314
Top-50 wins: 2
Sub-100 losses: 2
Sub-200 wins: 7

The wins on the road over GTown and UConn are huge, but the losses to SJU and Presbyterian are just as bad as those former wins are good.

Bear this in mind -- No team has ever made the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team with an RPI worse than 75. Last year, the last at-large team in was USC with the #67 RPI. For Cincy to get to 75, they need to go 6-6 the rest of the way. To really feel comfortable, however, they probably need more wins than that. Will the Bearcats go 8-4 to get their RPI into the 50s? With 6 games against kenpom top-50 teams, it won't be easy.

[🏀]

Cincy's a team that I think will spark a lot of debate. Looking at 50webs, Cincy is only included in 24 of the 38 brackets. Here's what I looked at regarding their profile:

RPI: 82
SOS: 96
Non-con SOS: 314
Top-50 wins: 2
Sub-100 losses: 2
Sub-200 wins: 7

The wins on the road over GTown and UConn are huge, but the losses to SJU and Presbyterian are just as bad as those former wins are good.

Bear this in mind -- No team has ever made the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team with an RPI worse than 75. Last year, the last at-large team in was USC with the #67 RPI. For Cincy to get to 75, they need to go 6-6 the rest of the way. To really feel comfortable, however, they probably need more wins than that. Will the Bearcats go 8-4 to get their RPI into the 50s? With 6 games against kenpom top-50 teams, it won't be easy.

ESPN has already penciled them in behind Syracuse if you're watching this Nova/SJU game.

I believe Cincy will be 18-7 coming into the Bradley Center. 18-8 leaving the Bradley Center.

22-23 wins total.

[karavotsos]

First, its impressive to even create the bracket, so well done.  I know the Cincy thing has been discussed quite a bit, but when you look at the roster and the way they have been playing - rather than just ranking numbers - I don't see how you keep them out. 

When you say they won't be comfortably in if they go 6-6 the rest of the way, you're saying they won't get into the NCAA with an 11-7 record in the Big East.  I find that hard to believe.  SU got robbed with a 10-8 Big East record whatever year that was.  I find it hard to believe you could get to 11 and not get in.  Further, to get to that point should not be difficult for Cincy -- to get 6 victories, they have to get 6 of these 8: @Rut, St. John, USF, Vill; Home: DePaul, Prov, Hall, Louisville.  Plus, they have 2 shots against MU, and if I remember correctly, they beat us on our floor last year.  I don't find that too difficult a road to get 6.  Also, they have a legitimate rotation and a bunch of Jrs and Srs.  (Tu Holloway wouldn't even play on that team.)

Also, you can take Louisville's 8 seed and give it to someone else.  I would say that the littler Smith and Dieng are the 2 legit players left on that team.  The bigger Smith is OK.  That's pretty much it.  And its easy to get Dieng in foul trouble.  I don't know how many wins you believe they need to grab that 8 seed, but I don't see them getting that many wins more because of who they are than who they play.

I can't believe I'm defending Cincinnati.  Please put Wisconsin on a 2 line next week so there can be some gratuitous Badger Bashing.

[brewcity77]

The thing to remember regarding Cincy and Louisville is that the tournament isn't giving bids based on Big East records. For a second, let's throw the Big East out and look at their non-con schedules:

Louisville (12-1)
Top-100 Wins: 4 (21 Vandy, 29 Memphis, 43 Long Beach St., 73 Ohio)
Sub-250 Losses: 0
Non-Con RPI: 6
Non-Con SOS: 64

Cincinnati (10-3)
Top-100 Wins: 1 (67 Oklahoma)
Sub-250 Losses: 1 (260 Presbyterian)
Non-Con RPI: 149
Non-Con SOS: 312

The comparison isn't even close. If you could just forget about November and December, Cincy is at least a top-6 seed, even with the SJU loss. But those early games still count, and the Presbyterian loss came with the team at full strength. We've seen Va Tech denied in years past for non-con schedules that were about as tough as Cincy's this year despite great league records. Cincy escaped last year because they were undefeated in non-con play. Not the case this year.

[77ncaachamps]

Marquette matches up with Indiana in the Second Round.

I'll take that.

[karavotsos]

Do they still do they eye test?  Because if they do, Louisville will not make it. 

[brewcity77]

Do they still do they eye test?  Because if they do, Louisville will not make it.

I think the eye test has been largely done away with, simply because it only takes into account generally 2-3 games. If you use the eye test, Marquette could be a 2-seed based on their dominance of Ole Miss and their solid win at Wisconsin, or could be out of the tournament based on their loss at LSU and the beatdown at home against Vandy.

You need to look at the totality of the season, and the eye test rarely does that. In recent years, teams like George Mason, Butler, and VCU have shattered the eye test (though I still contend VCU didn't deserve a bid) and proven that you need to get in on merit of the entire year rather than what someone saw on a few given days.

[Hoopaloop]

Bracketology: Jan. 21

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

The Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids. The Big East is just behind them with 8. Both the Big 12 and SEC have 5 bids, the ACC and C-USA each have 4, and the A-10, Mountain West, and West Coast have 3 apiece. The only other multi-bid leagues are the Missouri Valley and Pac-12 with 2 each.

9 bids?  Has Lenny disavowed you and CS yet?  Are you crazy?

They won't get 9.  Maybe 8.  They most certainly will have the highest percentage of bids  and it will not be close.  Big East may get 50% of their teams in but the Big Ten could get 66% which is just behind the percentage the Big East sent last year.  If the Big Ten does get 9 bids, that would shatter the % mark at 75% of a conference accepted.  Don't see it happening.  Big East only getting 7 is not out of the realm either.

[karavotsos]

Also, the ACC has been a 2 team, or 3 team max, league for years now.  Point being, even in a down year this year, BEast teams have plenty of opportunities in league play to prove whether they belong in the tournament or not.  Based on what Cincy has done so far I believe it is much more likely than not that they will show they are a tournament team.  I believe it is pretty clear Louisville will prove they are not.  Both are on their way to doing so.

If Cincy goes 11-7 in the BEast, a loss against Presbyterian in Dec should be inconsequential as to whether they get into the tournament or not.  It's so far in the rearview, what does it really say about a team in March?  

[karavotsos]

I think the eye test has been largely done away with, simply because it only takes into account generally 2-3 games. If you use the eye test, Marquette could be a 2-seed based on their dominance of Ole Miss and their solid win at Wisconsin, or could be out of the tournament based on their loss at LSU and the beatdown at home against Vandy.

You need to look at the totality of the season, and the eye test rarely does that. In recent years, teams like George Mason, Butler, and VCU have shattered the eye test (though I still contend VCU didn't deserve a bid) and proven that you need to get in on merit of the entire year rather than what someone saw on a few given days.

Isn't VCU an eye test team though?  No one thought they had the stats to get in, or should get in, based on RPI and whatever else, and they got in.  Didn't the committee just look at VCU, with hard matchups like Skeen and Rodriguez, and a high pressure style, and say this this is a team that could cause other teams problems, they're close enough and none of the other teams that got left out are any better, RPI be dammed?

[brewcity77]

9 bids?  Has Lenny disavowed you and CS yet?  Are you crazy?

They won't get 9.  Maybe 8.  They most certainly will have the highest percentage of bids  and it will not be close.  Big East may get 50% of their teams in but the Big Ten could get 66% which is just behind the percentage the Big East sent last year.  If the Big Ten does get 9 bids, that would shatter the % mark at 75% of a conference accepted.  Don't see it happening.  Big East only getting 7 is not out of the realm either.

The top 7 right now are easily in. Purdue and Minnesota are questionable, but Purdue is 6-4 against the top-100 while Minnesota is 5-4 with only one bad loss. Either could fall out of the bracket.

However, you're wrong that the Big Ten will definitely have the highest percentage and it won't be close. Texas and Iowa State could both play their way into the field, and if it's at the expense of Purdue and Minnesota (both among the last 8 in) you could see the Big Ten send 7/12 while the Big 12 sends 7/10. The SEC also has a few teams that could play their way in, both LSU and Mississippi merit consideration, while Arkansas' win today gets them into that bubble range as well. The SEC could send 7/12 or 8/12, either of which could match or exceed the Big Ten's total.

Big East only getting 7 is definitely possible, especially if Louisville's freefall continues and Cincy goes 10-8 or worse in conference play.