7th loss in the last 2-plus years in which MU has lost a game in which

[Eye]

Pomeroy's Win Probability Graph has given them a 90 percent chance of winning the game at some point in the contest. That's almost a quarter (7 of 30) of MU's losses in the last 2-plus years.

Here's the list:

09-10 Florida State
09-10 North Carolina State
09-10 DePaul
09-10 Notre Dame
09-10 Washington
10-11 Louisville
11-12 Georgetown (MU 90 percent to win last night after Mayo's three with 13:10 to play that put them up 56-39).

Pomeroy's graphs only go back to the 09-10 season.

I have no idea if this is high compared to other teams, but I already sent an e-mail to him to see if there's an easy way to research this or if he'd consider doing a blogpost on the topic. Doing the research myself for all 345 D1 teams would take a rather obscene amount of time I would imagine.

In fairness, MU has won two such games in that timespan, last year at UConn and this year at WI-Madison.

Once we establish if this total is out of the norm compared to other D1 schools (I'm guessing it is), then we might be able to take a look at some causes and possible solutions.

[mu_hilltopper]

Eye .. thank you for the research.  I've been trying to figure an objective choke standard .. I think you've found it.

[Henry Sugar]

I also love this information.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm considering running through and doing it for every BE team.  That might be more manageable.

[mu_hilltopper]

Statsheet.com has "lead safe %age" .. and goes back about 10 seasons.  It must use a different formula ..as, for example, the Great Choke of 2011 @ UL hit only 60%.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2011/01/15/marquette-70-louisville-71/flow


I checked 2008-9, didn't see any obvious choke-jobs.

[mu_hilltopper]

Love the idea, Henry.   One wonders in the BE, who has the most Chokes .. who has the most ... Anti-Chokes (??)  Vanquishes? 

What do you call the opposite of "Pulling a Marquette"?

[Jay Bee]

Not sure a 90% at any point in the game can be used to define 'chokes'.

Ken's number is based on the specific teams playing and the chart for the current year will continue to fluctuate throughout the season until completion.  There are many instances when a team starts off with a greater than 90% win probability.

If a team is at a 91% win probability at the beginning of the game, but the big underdog comes in and starts off with an 8-0, and goes on to win the game.. that looks more like a 'crap the bed' game than a 'choke'.  Maybe semantics, but if you're going to settle on an objective 'choke' criteria, maybe you need to look at some point in the second half vs. at any point in the game.

As for statsheet, at one point I believe they were using a calculation that neither considered the specific teams playing nor the home team. 

[WellsstreetWanderer]

These fades are becoming a trademark of Buzz' teams

[mu_hilltopper]

Absolutely.

A friendly amendment .. 90% win% in the 2nd half?  .. Or with 10, 5 mins to go?

I think I'd go with .. 90% win, any time under 10 to go.   Maybe 80% under 5, as well.

[CTWarrior]

11-12 Georgetown (MU 90 percent to win last night after Mayo's three with 13:10 to play that put them up 56-39).

I find it very surprising that our win percentage likelihood was only 90% at that point.  It seems that teams with a 17 point lead and 13 minutes remaining would go on to lose much less than 1 in 10 times.  That makes last night's loss seem to be not as bad as I thought.  

[🏀]

Absolutely.

A friendly amendment .. 90% win% in the 2nd half?  .. Or with 10, 5 mins to go?

I think I'd go with .. 90% win, any time under 10 to go.   Maybe 80% under 5, as well.

That seems like a good defining line.

[Jay Bee]

I think I'd go with .. 90% win, any time under 10 to go.   Maybe 80% under 5, as well.

I'm with it.

[mu_hilltopper]

Can anyone recall a game where MU was at a 90% chance of loss in the final 10, but pulled it out?

[314warrior]

Does KenPom give access to his data in a downloadable format?  It wouldn't take too long to write a quick script to answer the 'choke' question.  In fact, that sounds like way more fun than doing research today...

EDIT: I'd even pay my $20 if I knew I could get it.

[Dr. Blackheart]

MU can build leads really well, but can't seem to hold 'em.  Would like to see the reverse as well, where MU clawed its way back to win from deep.  One thing I also saw in Statsheet is the coaches' record in close game (6 or less),  Buzz and Jay Wright are about .500, where the masters like Calhoun and Boeheim are over .600.  

Talent, defensive stop scheme, end game situationals and coaching experience win close games....we still forget that Buzz is the youngest coach on his staff, and second youngest in the BE.  He has a lot of learning yet to do, which he openly admits (unlike the previous).  Last night, MU had a great starting game plan...even after half, but Thompson changed up on the switches on defense and it was curtains.  Buzz had no answer.  And Gtwon continued to shoot lights out against our D and I didn't see any switch to zone or a box to stop Clark.  Rinse and repeat.

Good stuff....thanks

http://statsheet.com/mcb/coaches/compare?add=jim-calhoun&c1=buzz-williams&c2=jay-wright&c3=jim-boeheim

[Eye]

If it's 2nd-half only, that actually doesn't help the argument from an MU perspective. Only game of those 9 where the 90 percent threshold was reached in the first half was this year's WI-Madison game. So take that out and it's 1-7 for MU in games where they've had a 90 percent chance of winning/losing at some point in the 2nd half and the opposite has occurred over the past 2-plus years.

Pomeroy had UConn over 90 percent in last year's game at UConn at the peak of the UConn extended run to begin the 2nd half. MU up 34-23 at half, down 49-41 with 9 and change, so at the peak of UConn's 26-7 extended run over 10-plus minutes to begin the half, he had UConn at over 90 percent. Only one he has MU winning in that type of spot in the last 2-plus years.

I'll ask him if the info is downloadable when/if he replies.

[Henry Sugar]

Absolutely.

A friendly amendment .. 90% win% in the 2nd half?  .. Or with 10, 5 mins to go?

I think I'd go with .. 90% win, any time under 10 to go.   Maybe 80% under 5, as well.

Games this criteria would exclude:

Florida State - 95% @ 15 min to go
NC State - 94% @ 20 min to go
Washington (NCAA) - 93% @ 14 min to go
LAST NIGHT - 90% @ 13 min to go

I think it should be 90% with 15 min to go.  Would also accept the entire 2H just to include games like NC State.

Can anyone recall a game where MU was at a 90% chance of loss in the final 10, but pulled it out?

One from last year.  UConn 7% with 10 min to go.  Expanding to the final 15 min... USF last year (10% with 14 to go)

[Henry Sugar]

Going to try crowd-sourcing this one to see how it works.

I created a google docs version of a spreadsheet that I went through.  Although the initial question is just restricted to 90% and somewhere between 10-20 min, I believe there's a ton of additional information that could be obtained by looking at the starting/max/min win percentages.

Open access is allowed to edit the doc, and the Marquette template can be copied over.  I typically just copy the information from the Pomeroy Game Plan and then put it into a spreadsheet.  Anyone interested in helping to fill out the info for the entire league?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqUGYV4K8N_ydGVSeExLLW9FQ3B5WnBRaWp2ekhWQUE

[mu_hilltopper]

Henry had a couple good questions, though ..

FSU two years ago count as a choke?  only 87% with 10 min to go .. but 95% with 15 min to go. 

Washington NCAA tourney .. 93% at fourteen min to go .. choke?

While neither hit the 90% at 10 rule .. I imagine if I looked back at MUScoop history, everyone was using the "C-word" after those games.

Truth is, it's a "Choke Continuum" .. 90% at 10 is bad .. 93% at 14 is just a little less bad, but still a choke.

May need to alter the formula.  Maybe it should be 80% in the final 15?

[mu_hilltopper]

Wow, looking at that spreadsheet, Henry .. "Marquette, where we have enough data points to analyze our chokes."

[brewcity77]

Can anyone recall a game where MU was at a 90% chance of loss in the final 10, but pulled it out?

Here are a few notables:

USF last year: 90% under 15 to play, 80% under 9

UConn last year: 92% under 10, 80% under 1

Bucknell last year: 73% just over 10

St John's 2 years ago (OT): 80% just over 10

[mu_hilltopper]

Umm .. that UConn one, 80% under 1 to go .. that exposes a choke factor problem.  I mean, UConn was only ahead 2 points.   Hard to say UConn choked a 2 point lead away, to lose in OT. 

Are we missing something .. maybe there needs to be a double-digit+ lead within that 80-90% win probability to really count.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

These fades are becoming a trademark of Buzz' teams

This could be an interesting research project too.

Big East standings the past 4 seasons if the games ended at halftime, with 10 minutes to go, and with 5 minutes to go.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Wow, looking at that spreadsheet, Henry .. "Marquette, where we have enough data points to analyze our chokes."

I think this says more than any of the data.

Ouch.

[🏀]

I'm hoping that Buzz is just getting outcoached. He's still young with little experience himself or on his bench. Hopefully these are the only growing pains we have to experience with Buzz.

Anyone else somewhat think this?

[UticaBusBarn]

Must say, the data is most interesting. The question becomes why? Is the team tired because it is over-coached? Is it because Coach Williams has proven himself not to be a defensive coach - as was Al McGuire? Or, is it simply the coach who is "choking?" This Warrior fan is a big supporter of Coach Williams, but he needs to calm down a bit a become more consistent.