LSU Stats

[Henry Sugar]

1st Half (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  29
Efficiency:  0.78 vs 0.94
eFG%:  36% v 48%
TO%:  20% vs 22%
OR%:  33% vs 40%
FTR:  Irrelevant

2nd Half (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  36
Efficiency: 0.99 vs 1.10
eFG%:  50% vs 76%
TO%: 25% vs 33%
OR%:  37% vs 25%
FTR:  Irrelevant

Full Game (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  66
Efficiency:  0.90 vs 1.03
eFG%:  43% vs 62%
TO%:  23% vs 28%
OR%:  35% vs 33%
FTR:  Irrelevant

Really poor offense in the first half (news, right?).  Defense overall wasn't bad, but the eFG% defense was weak.

The second half defensive eFG% makes me really concerned.  76% allowed is atrocious.  Then, despite forcing LSU into turnovers on one third of all possessions, MU simply could not take care of the ball themselves.  If that 2H turnover rate is a little bit stronger, MU may have enough to win.

Note that for the game, MU won the turnover and offensive rebounding battles, but not by enough to account for the massive eFG% disparity.  Just in case anyone still doubted the relative importance of eFG% in comparison to the other factors.

[Henry Sugar]

Player Stats

Net Positive
Jae +6.9
DJO +1.3

Net Negative
Jamail -1.3
Vander -1.4
DWil -1.5
Davante -1.5
JWilson -1.8
Mayo -4
Junior -4.6

I really thought that DJO's game was a lot worse watching the game last night, so a net positive kind of surprised me.  I do think it was kind of lost how bad a game Mayo had last night (0-5 and a TO).  And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

[RJax55]

Mayo was really bad last night. IMO, that Blue/Mayo combo is this year's X factor. I thought Blue was ok, but MU can't get that line out of Mayo on the road and come away with a win.

Last year, Jae was the X factor. When he was playing well, MU was difficult to beat. It's no coincidence that last year's run in March directly correlated with the return of strong play from Crowder.

So far, MU's two worst games have been LSU and Norfolk State. Well, Blue's worst game was Norfolk State, and Mayo's was LSU.

Even if Jae and DJO are playing well, it is Mayo & Blue that will determine how successful MU is.

[GGGG]

The second half defensive eFG% makes me really concerned.  76% allowed is atrocious.  Then, despite forcing LSU into turnovers on one third of all possessions, MU simply could not take care of the ball themselves. 

This is why I don't like turnovers to determine how effective a defense is. 

[brewcity77]

Henry, would it be possible to do a comparison of eFG% and ppp pre and post Otule injury?

[Silkk the Shaka]

As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

His assist rate is sky high, but yeah that TO rate is kind of disturbing.  One thing I really wanted to see this offseason was Cadougan tightening up his dribble, but that didn't happen.  It should never come above your waist at any position, but that is a cardinal sin as a PG.  DJames had the ball on a string his senior year.

[Silkk the Shaka]

This is why I don't like turnovers to determine how effective a defense is. 

A TO is like a missed shot only better, since it usually leads to an easy transition bucket.  It shouldn't be the most important factor in determining the effectiveness of a defense (as being able to force them is less reliable in my opinion) but it definitely should be a factor in the evaluation.  If two teams are similar in FG% defense but one can turn a team over better, wouldn't you say that team is better defensively?

[GGGG]

Yes, but when you create a turnover in one out of three posessions, but give up a 76% eFG, it means your defense kinda sucks.  I brought this up in another thread, but the response is "look how many turnovers we created!!"

High risk...high reward.  Yeah we are creating turnovers, but we are also allowing too many open looks.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The full court pressure did what Buzz wanted it to do in the 2nd, and that was to speed up the tempo to feed our offense.  MU forced the TO's and reduced the LSU OR rate as planned; however, LSU daggered it with the eFG% as we were too spread out with the press.  DJO's six empty 2nd half possessions (5 turnovers and a front end miss) killed our chances for a V, not that there wasn't a slew of other blame to spread.

Where MU missed Otule though was the 1st half drought where we desperately needed to spread the offense and run the motion gaps.  MU got away from what they do well on offense after a high tempo start.  Otule helps us in a slow down game by eating space and helping to create channels in the paint for our drivers against a pack line defense.  For some reason, DG was out top setting picks when he is more effective in the offense in the low post.  MU also got away from the drive and kick-out that Jimmy did so well with.  

[RJax55]

Where MU missed Otule though was the 1st half drought where we desperately needed to spread the offense and run the motion gaps.  MU got away from what they do well on offense after a high tempo start.  Otule helps us in a slow down game by eating space and helping to create channels in the paint for our drivers against a pack line defense.  For some reason, DG was out top setting picks when he is more effective in the offense in the low post.  MU also got away from the drive and kick-out that Jimmy did so well with.  

With DG now playing 20-25 minutes, it is time to fully utilize all his offensive skills. MU can run pick and pops with DG, freeing him for mid-range jumpers. He can definitely hit that shot.

Also, I would like to see MU utilize Wilson, especially when he is in at the 5, in drive and kick situations. He has a very good handle & passing skills and is certainly quicker than most 5s guarding him.

[Henry Sugar]

Henry, would it be possible to do a comparison of eFG% and ppp pre and post Otule injury?

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====
There is not a large enough sample size for significance.  However, I've been struggling with it as well, and just haven't had enough time to do a deep dive.   But here's the current level of thinking.

Simple Averages (pre vs post)

Offense
Efficiency (1.16 vs 1.07)
eFG% (56.5% vs 50%)

Defense
Efficiency (0.82 vs 0.97)
eFG% (40.9% vs 51.6%)

It's easy enough to just run an average and just say "hey, our offense and defense are both worse with Otule out".  One could say "boom - roasted"...  Otule made all the difference.   But there's not enough data to answer that definitively.

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

With DG now playing 20-25 minutes, it is time to fully utilize all his offensive skills. MU can run pick and pops with DG, freeing him for mid-range jumpers. He can definitely hit that shot.

Also, I would like to see MU utilize Wilson, especially when he is in at the 5, in drive and kick situations. He has a very good handle & passing skills and is certainly quicker than most 5s guarding him.

100% agree. That pick and pop and the end of the half with DG was a very good look, for example, although there was grumbling on the boards over that one.  However, the guards have not yet adjusted to DG in the flow of the game.  They were just out of sync.  On Wilson, I couldn't agree more.  Buzz is using him as something he isn't right now.  We saw flashes in the NCU game of what he could bring with his versatility....didn't see that last night at all.  

Buzz has a couple of weeks of straight hoops to fold in more into the offense and defense.  The team always has improved its efficiency flow during this break. There was only a one day prep for this LSU game and it showed.  All about the BE from here on out.

[UticaBusBarn]

Player Stats

Net Positive
Jae +6.9
DJO +1.3

Net Negative
Jamail -1.3
Vander -1.4
DWil -1.5
Davante -1.5
JWilson -1.8
Mayo -4
Junior -4.6

I really thought that DJO's game was a lot worse watching the game last night, so a net positive kind of surprised me.  I do think it was kind of lost how bad a game Mayo had last night (0-5 and a TO).  And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

As was noted in another thread, their guards beat our guards (see above) and we lost.

[RJax55]

100% agree. That pick and pop and the end of the half with DG was a very good look, for example, although there was grumbling on the boards over that one.  However, the guards have not yet adjusted to DG in the flow of the game.  They were just out of sync.  On Wilson, I couldn't agree more.  Buzz is using him as something he isn't right now.  We saw flashes in the NCU game of what he could bring with his versatility....didn't see that last night at all.  

I think DG is one of, if not, the best shooter on the team. I loved the call at the end of the half. However, it is more than just the guards getting adjusted, Buzz needs to give DG the opportunity to play the pick and pop game. With DG's lack of lift and no left-hand, you can only get so much out of him in the post. However, I think he can hit a few mid-range jumpers a game. It would be a big boost to his stat line and would also open some driving lanes for the guards as well.

 

[UticaBusBarn]

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====

...

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure. 
This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.

[UticaBusBarn]

.



Opps ... let us try this again ...



This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.
[/quote]

[NYWarrior]

This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.

An abbreviated look at MU in back to back scenarios is here

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/16-marquette-wins-for-only-3rd-time.htm

[MuMark]

Our defense is regressing. Now down to 32 in adjusted efficiency on Pomeroy.

I think Otule makes a big difference but I also think the early season results might have been a bit of a fluke.

I'm never sold on predicting a seasons worth of stats based on 9 or 10 games mostly played against inferior opponents.



My guess is our D will turn out to be similar to last year when all is said and done.

[bilsu]

Mayo, being inexperienced, just did not realized they were suckering him into driving. They took away the outside shot and set him up to take the charge. He had two maybe three charges which count as turnovers. LSU had a well designed game plan, but they still would of lost if they had not hit those threes.

[Dr. Blackheart]

And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

His assist rate is sky high, but yeah that TO rate is kind of disturbing.  One thing I really wanted to see this offseason was Cadougan tightening up his dribble, but that didn't happen.  It should never come above your waist at any position, but that is a cardinal sin as a PG.  DJames had the ball on a string his senior year.

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

[MattyWarrior]

That was an awful effort, except for Jae! Was he hustling or what. It always seems going into a game like this we hear
they can't shoot, they finished second last in there conference last year and we should win easy. No easy with this team
from here on out. Our half court offense sucks. Lsu was coached up and we mailed it in. JWill needs to get aggresive!

[ATL MU Warrior]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

Thank you for this...but he went 0-1 from the line last night so he sucks.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

First, I said his assist rate is sky high, not his turnover rate.  That may have been a misread on your part, as we are in total and complete agreement there.

Second, I like Junior and am one of the most positive posters on this board.  I think he's an extremely creative passer, and when he plays like he did against WVU in the BEast tourney last year, he can single-handedly win games.  I liked that he was on the attack last night.  I like that he seems to have worked on his mid-range game in the off season and that he shoots it more confidently this year.  If he could tighten up his ball handling and hit his jumper a bit more consistently, he'd pretty much be my ideal offensive point guard.  That's all I was saying.

[Boone]

ATL MU Warrior, tell me where I said JR sucks. He didn't play well last nite. Don't know why that's so hard for you to understand.

[Jay Bee]

Thank you for this...but he went 0-1 from the line last night so he sucks.

Normally I don't mind a missed free throw much, but that attempt was brutal.  Gasp-inducing.