Otule's Value

[MU82]

Got killed on the offensive boards and on drives to the hoop.

We're not the NCAA's greatest rebounding team even with all of our players, but I think you saw tonight one of the many reasons why Buzz gives Otule much bigger minutes than Gardner. Otule obviously is a much better interior defender and is much longer for the times the ball is being batted around.

Here's hoping it's not a season-ender, both for the kid and for the team's long-term prospects.

[Markusquette]

They wouldn't have gotten nearly as many second chance points or points inside if Chris were in there defending.  His presence is huge.  Great win, but hope Otule can suit up within a few games.

[esotericmindguy]

Totally agree, the lane was wide open all night. He'll be a big loss, -12 on the boards.

[ATLmarquettefan]

thought buzz would've played anderson more...kid's a beast on the boards with the limited time he's seen

[wojosdojo]

Sprained knee? How serious are we talking?

[brewcity77]

Said it preseason, I'll say it again. Otule is the most important player on our team. Our defense thrives on his ability to alter shots with the threat of a block, his work to keep opponents off the glass, and his skill not only in rebounding but in redirecting rebounds to Jae and Van.

We have probably 6-7 guys that could average in double figures if it was needed. Offense is not a problem, and we could survive without a Mayo, Crowder, even DJO. There are others who can step up. But there is no one who can physically replace CO if he is out for an extended period. He is hands down the single most important cog in this machine.

After tonight, I don't see how there could be any argument.

[Les Nessman]

Sprained knee? How serious are we talking?

Won't know until they get the MRI.

[NersEllenson]

Said it preseason, I'll say it again. Otule is the most important player on our team. Our defense thrives on his ability to alter shots with the threat of a block, his work to keep opponents off the glass, and his skill not only in rebounding but in redirecting rebounds to Jae and Van.

We have probably 6-7 guys that could average in double figures if it was needed. Offense is not a problem, and we could survive without a Mayo, Crowder, even DJO. There are others who can step up. But there is no one who can physically replace CO if he is out for an extended period. He is hands down the single most important cog in this machine.

After tonight, I don't see how there could be any argument.

Yep - you've been on the Otule fan-wagon for a long time...and said the above many times.  I think tonight illustrated your feeling/point quite well.  First game all year I believe that we were outrebounded...and were by something like 12 boards.  Lots of putbacks at the rim, Ndayie got a few points he likely wouldn't get...definitely a big absence.

[brewcity77]

Yep - you've been on the Otule fan-wagon for a long time...and said the above many times.  I think tonight illustrated your feeling/point quite well.  First game all year I believe that we were outrebounded...and were by something like 12 boards.  Lots of putbacks at the rim, Ndayie got a few points he likely wouldn't get...definitely a big absence.

I believe Ole Miss also out-rebounded us, but when you win by 30, no one notices you getting out-boarded by 4

Hopefully Chris being on court after the game is a good sign. We should be able to manage Green Bay (though they're better than their record) and Northern Colorado at home without him, but that trip to LSU would be much tougher without CO. I'd hate to see what Johnny O'Bryant could do with an unimpeded lane.

[Pago Warrior]

Got killed on the offensive boards and on drives to the hoop.

We're not the NCAA's greatest rebounding team even with all of our players, but I think you saw tonight one of the many reasons why Buzz gives Otule much bigger minutes than Gardner. Otule obviously is a much better interior defender and is much longer for the times the ball is being batted around.

Here's hoping it's not a season-ender, both for the kid and for the team's long-term prospects.

+1!!!!!

[buckchuckler]

Said it preseason, I'll say it again. Otule is the most important player on our team.

After tonight, I don't see how there could be any argument.

I disagree.  Otule is huge, and the offensive boards were killer, but if that was DJO that went out, I don't think we're talking about a win.  

[Silkk the Shaka]

Yep, BrewCity has a great point.  Chris brings a dimension to our team that no one else does.  Tallest by a good amount, and a real defensive/box out presence in the lane.  Without him we got backdoored all night and manhandled on the glass.  REALLY hope we get him back SOON.  Without him, we have a ceiling.  With him, I'm not so sure we do.

As a side note, how great is our depth that you can beat a top 10 team on the road without your starting PG, then two days later beat a top 50 team on a neutral court without your starting C?

[brewcity77]

I disagree.  Otule is huge, and the offensive boards were killer, but if that was DJO that went out, I don't think we're talking about a win.

I'm thinking long-term. There's literally no one to replace Otule. Our defense goes from top-20 in the nation to sub-50 without him. Take away DJO and Mayo will put up 14 a night. Sure, it would hurt, but we'd still have a great offense. Every player on our team has at least one interchangeable piece except for Otule and Gardner. And only one of those two brings defense. I'll take the great defender every time, especially on a team with so many gifted scorers.

[mu2031]

Sprained knee generally just means it hurts, but shouldn't be anything serious. Nothing's torn or broken or requiring surgery. Might miss a few games but I'd predict he'd be back by the BE opener, if not before.

[MU06CU10]

I'm not as optimistic and would definitely caution anyone against reading too much into "sprained knee." It doesn't sound as serious, but that's usually the generic knee injury wording used to describe a jacked up knee. Could be something minor and I sure hope that's the case, but it could easily devolve into the dreaded ACL/MCL/etc. The way it happened seriously worries me, but we won't know for sure until the MRI. Until then, fingers crossed.

[94Warrior]

Sprained knee generally just means it hurts, but shouldn't be anything serious. Nothing's torn or broken or requiring surgery. Might miss a few games but I'd predict he'd be back by the BE opener, if not before.

If you don't know what you're talking about, why comment?

1st degree sprain is no big deal, but a 3rd degree sprain is a complete tear requiring reconstructive surgery (in the case of an ACL).

I hope you are right (purely by coincidence), but nobody knows until an MRI is done.

Best Wishes Chris.

[El Duderino]

Got killed on the offensive boards and on drives to the hoop.

We're not the NCAA's greatest rebounding team even with all of our players, but I think you saw tonight one of the many reasons why Buzz gives Otule much bigger minutes than Gardner. Otule obviously is a much better interior defender and is much longer for the times the ball is being batted around.

Here's hoping it's not a season-ender, both for the kid and for the team's long-term prospects.

Yea, the main guy who killed us on the glass was N'Diaye. He was only given credit for 4 offensive rebounds, but he tipped a few others that ended up in the hands of teammates. At 7 feet tall, we had absolutely nobody to match up with N'Diaye.

I do think that Gardner could be a better rebounder than he is even though he lacks height, but he just doesn't use his body consistently enough to block out on the defensive boards. With his bulk, if he consistently used proper fundamentals, Gardner could be a force on the boards simply because his bulk could prevent guys from ever getting inside him.

Big/thick guys like Gardner who can't jump much should sit and watch film over and over of Kevin Love to see how you can dominate the glass through bulk, effort, anticipation, and consistent boxing out techniques.

[krocheck]

First game all year I believe that we were outrebounded...and were by something like 12 boards.

I use Marquette's official box scores to run my numbers.  We are 5-2-1 on rebounds (7-1 DREB, 2-6 OREB).  The overall tie was Ole Miss and the second REB loss was Jacksonville (by 2), but this was the first time we were REALLY out-rebounded.  I've said before ... the offensive rebounds concern me a lot.  6-19 2nd chance points in this game and they only took 6 more shots than us.

There were a lot of good take-away's from this game as well, though.  19-27 (70.4%) to 5-10 (50%) free-throws, 20-13 assists, 10-16 turnovers ... a 2.00 to 0.81 assist-to-turnover ratio.  HUGE.

Last season, 31 of 37 games, the team that had the most rebounds also won the game.  Last season, 31 of 37 games, the team that had the best FG% won the game.  In rebounds MU was 4-2 for those last 6 and in FG% MU was 3-3 for those last 6.  USF was the only game where the team that had fewer rebounds AND the worse shooting percentage won (MU won).  Rebounds follow wins.  FG% follow wins.  And if we loose 4.8 REB/GM, 60% shooting, and 5.7 Pts/GM in Chris (factoring out this last game) we have a rougher road ahead in terms of staying consistent.  We could have been those couple rebounds and points short of winning against Washington.  We escaped just barely this time ...

Keith

[El Duderino]

I use Marquette's official box scores to run my numbers.  We are 5-2-1 on rebounds (7-1 DREB, 2-6 OREB).  The overall tie was Ole Miss and the second REB loss was Jacksonville (by 2), but this was the first time we were REALLY out-rebounded.  I've said before ... the offensive rebounds concern me a lot.  6-19 2nd chance points in this game and they only took 6 more shots than us.

There were a lot of good take-away's from this game as well, though.  19-27 (70.4%) to 5-10 (50%) free-throws, 20-13 assists, 10-16 turnovers ... a 2.00 to 0.81 assist-to-turnover ratio.  HUGE.

Last season, 31 of 37 games, the team that had the most rebounds also won the game.  Last season, 31 of 37 games, the team that had the best FG% won the game.  In rebounds MU was 4-2 for those last 6 and in FG% MU was 3-3 for those last 6.  USF was the only game where the team that had fewer rebounds AND the worse shooting percentage won (MU won).  Rebounds follow wins.  FG% follow wins.  And if we loose 4.4 REB/GM, 60% shooting, and 5 Pts/GM in Chris we have a rougher road ahead in terms of staying consistent.  We could have been those couple rebounds and points short of winning against Washington.  We escaped just barely this time ...

Keith

I agree in general with what you said, but in some games various things outside of the players control can impact the game rebounding stats.

For example, often if a team shoots a poor percentage from the field, their offensive rebound totals will go higher simply because more opportunities to get an offensive rebound were available.

A team that shoots a lot of jump shots and misses a good percentage of them, those type of shots can lead to more unpredictable bounces off the rim to where the ball simply finds someone as much as a player gets it through proper boxing out.

Lastly, playing style and matchups. Sometimes your team will just face an opponent that's bigger and/or longer. That was a factor i thought tonight. The mix of Otule being out and Washington often having an overall length advantage allowed them to get contested rebounds. There were quite a few times where boxing out properly wasn't the problem as much as a ball coming off the rim with a roughly even mix of MU/UW players there for the rebound, but the ball would be tipped around once/twice before Washington ended up with the ball. Their overall length and Otule not being in there to help with N'Diaye was by far the biggest problem, not an effort issue.

Plus, Buzz just likes to play with a three guard lineup on the court for sizable stretches of the game where the three guards range from being 6' to 6'4. This can hurt on the glass, especially with Otule out, but Buzz likes how those three guard lineups can put pressure on opposing defenses. So there is good and bad which can come with three guards so much.

[krocheck]

I agree in general with what you said, but in some games various things outside of the players control can impact the game rebounding stats.

For example, often if a team shoots a poor percentage from the field, their offensive rebound totals will go higher simply because more opportunities to get an offensive rebound were available.

A team that shoots a lot of jump shots and misses a good percentage of them, those type of shots can lead to more unpredictable bounces off the rim to where the ball simply finds someone as much as a player gets it through proper boxing out.

I don't disagree with your assumptions, but here's the data from last season.  Typically, if a team with the lower FG% wins they will have an average of 3.8 more OREBs.  Keep in mind that those 6 games where the the better FG% team lost (WIS-L, @VAN-L, SYR-W, @VIL-L, @USF-W, SYR-W), the average margin of victory was only 3.7 points.  In 4 of those 6 the differential in 2nd change points covered the margin of victory.  For your reference, last season, 22 of 37 games did the OREB winner also win the game and 25 of 37 games did the 2nd Chance Point leader also win the game.  Except for FT%, OREBs is the least likely statistical predictor of game outcome overall.

Keith

[nycwarrior]

Chris's ability to clog the lane from alley-oops and put a body on the other team's biggest big will be sorely missed if he's out for any length of time.

As others have noted, those things don't show up in a box score but they impact the game greatly.

As far as wins go, tonight was about as frustrating a game as one could watch. All of the put-backs and easy drives made our defensive effort look like it was allowing a two hour lay-up line for Washington. Especially in the second half.

Great to escape the Garden with a win. I hope Chris is OK.

[brewcity77]

We'll be tested again Satuday without Otule. Green Bay will try to slow us down and have a dominant big man in 7'1" Alec Burks, who's averaging 13 / 7.5 per game. Expect them to try to steal a page from Norfolk State. All of their losses are on the road to kenpom top-110 teams.

This is an easy game to overlook, but UW-GB is a dangerous team, especially without Otule.

[LAMUfan]

it was a big deal to see him walking without crutches at the end of the game, that means that all the clinical tests they could do (hands on) were negative, checking for ACL, MCL, PCL, LCL laxity or meniscus damage.  It looked like an MCL or ACL injury as it happened.  Obviously could be serious, but still a very good sign he was up and about without crutches.
How many times did we over play and the baseline was wide open with no one there last night?  Big defensive difference without the big guy

[tower912]

CO also has great value in keeping his guy from getting the board and clearing space for a teammate to get the rebound.

[Lighthouse 84]

CO also has great value in keeping his guy from getting the board and clearing space for a teammate to get the rebound.

Agreed.  CO may not get a ton of boards but he does clear space that allows the rest of the Warriors to get them.