Pomeroy has Marquette 5th in BE (10-8), 21st in country (19-10)

[bamamarquettefan]

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

Here are his conference records.  Marquette is slightly higher than four other teams, with all 5 rounding to 10 wins.  (Marquette actually adds up to 10.28 conference wins, 18.8 overall wins).  Due to rounding, the overall record comes out to 142-146 in conference play, meaning two teams would have to have one more win and two more teams one more loss.

Syracuse   13   5
Connecticut   13   5
Pittsburgh   12   6
Louisville   12   6
Marquette   10   8
West Virginia   10   8
Cincinnati   10   8
Notre Dame   10   8
Villanova   10   8
Georgetown   9   9
Seton   7   11
South Florida   6   12
St. John's   6   12
Rutgers   5   13
Providence   5   13
DePaul   4   14

[dwaderoy2004]

I'm thinking 12-6.

[bamamarquettefan]

agreed.  Ken is always somewhat conservative in preseason, so everyone is probably a little closer to .500 than they end up.

[6Under20]

If you go game by game and add in a couple more victories at the PJ it comes out to 23-8 and 11-7 in conference......I'd be pretty happy with that

[MU_LOL]

This is why The Big East is awesome right now. A team can [hypothetically] go 10-8 In conference and be ranked nationally.

[MuMark]

If they went 10-8 in conference they probably wouldn't be ranked nationally.

These predictions don't mean much without 2011/2012 data.

[PGsHeroes32]

I don't see 10-8 being good enough for 5th place.

[PGsHeroes32]

Now after going through and looking at it, he pretty much had us losing every road game against a decent to good team I think? Then winning every home game.

I think we win at least 1 of the road games vs Gtown and Nova, maybe both. ND and WVU are also very winnable.

[kmwtrucks]

WE play 18 Big east games.  7 homes games. 2 away games, and 4 neutral site games.  That is 31 games not 29? 

[Dr. Blackheart]

WE play 18 Big east games.  7 homes games. 2 away games, and 4 neutral site games.  That is 31 games not 29? 

Pomeroy doesn't list the two neutral site Virgin Island games (with TBD opponents) until the winner/losers are determined at the Paradise Shoot Out.

[Golden Avalanche]

If they went 10-8 in conference they probably wouldn't be ranked nationally.

These predictions don't mean much without 2011/2012 data.

True.

But the 9th place team could win a National Title. That should suffice.

[MarquetteDano]

But the 9th place team could win a National Title. That should suffice.

I still think it is unbelievable that UConn, with its tough non-con schedule and obviously tough NCAA tourney schedule, never lost to a non-Big East team all season.  And they were NINTH in said Big East.

[brewcity77]

Just thought I'd note this...

Pomeroy has us going 21-8 (11-7) if you go game-by-game. His final-season projections are often a bit more conservative than if you go by the individual games.

[mug644]

I still think it is unbelievable that UConn, with its tough non-con schedule and obviously tough NCAA tourney schedule, never lost to a non-Big East team all season.  And they were NINTH in said Big East.

I guess I never heard that stat, but combining it with the fact that UConn ended the season with an 11-game winning streak to win both the BEast tournament and the National Championship...well, that's a helluva season.

[MuMark]

They don't match up because he uses probabilities. For example if MU is a 51% favorite in 2 games they would both be predicted wins but it is much more likely that those games end up 1-1 which accounts for the discrepancy.

Just thought I'd note this...

Pomeroy has us going 21-8 (11-7) if you go game-by-game. His final-season projections are often a bit more conservative than if you go by the individual games.

[Canadian Dimes]

Can we all agree that this Pomeroy stuff before the season starts is a complete joke.  These mathmatics are based on what?  This is a prognostication no better than the preseason AP or ESPN poll,  with some numbers to make it look legit.  

Furthermore most of the games are 1-2 point out comes that could go either way.  looking at other teams they are the same way.  

Not a fan of the BCS but at least they have the intelligence to realize computer numbers dont mean squat without some actual numbers to plug in.  To their benefit they wait 6 weeks or so to publish something.  

[Eye]

In concept, I'd agree that a computer ranking without numbers doesn't mean much. That being said, Pomeroy's model was uncanny in its quality last year (much better than Blue Ribbon, which I'd previously thought was the best) as a preseason predictor of results. For example, he was higher than anybody I could find on Arizona, Belmont, Louisville, George Mason, Utah St and Va Com a year ago. (I can safely bring up Utah St. these days without the topic devolving into a mess quickly  ).

[copious1218]

I can safely bring up Utah St. these days without the topic devolving into a mess quickly  ).

Stew Morrill is a legend.

[brewcity77]

They don't match up because he uses probabilities. For example if MU is a 51% favorite in 2 games they would both be predicted wins but it is much more likely that those games end up 1-1 which accounts for the discrepancy.

Yeah...thought that was a given. It's just that some people get a bit panicked when they see 19-10 at this point of the season. I was just trying to emphasize that his method of predicting the final record is conservative.

Maybe I should have elaborated.

[Skatastrophy]

Maybe I should have elaborated.

No, it goes without saying cause it's the same thing Pomeroy does every year.  You're good.