Suck For Luck

[jesmu84]

All the options you cited were teams with no QB.  Luck in Indy is exactly like Rodgers in GB.  Luck is NOT pushing Manning and his $100 million contract out.  Nor should he.  You should expect Manning to return next year and be one of the best in the league.

So, he holds a clipboard for two or three years.

Although... If the colts do get luck, I believe this offseason they have the option to cut Manning and save many millions of dollars.

[StillAWarrior]

All the options you cited were teams with no QB.  Luck in Indy is exactly like Rodgers in GB.  Luck is NOT pushing Manning and his $100 million contract out.  Nor should he.  You should expect Manning to return next year and be one of the best in the league.

So, he holds a clipboard for two or three years.

I don't disagree.  The reason they typically start right away is that teams with quality QBs don't usually use a high draft pick on a QB.  I was really making two points:  1) I'm not sure Luck would view that as a perfect situation because many exceptional QBs have started very early in their careers; and 2) it is very, very rare these days for a high draft pick QB to wait more than a year to start -- Rodgers is, I think, more the exception than the rule.  But to be fair, looking at the QB leaders the last few years, I see these additional examples of guys who carried the clip board for 2+ years:  Schaub, Fitzpatrick, Romo, Cassell, Pennington.


On a related note, I think it's also fair to wonder how Peyton is going to come through this injury and whether his backup might be pressed into service before "several years" from now.

[MerrittsMustache]

Although... If the colts do get luck, I believe this offseason they have the option to cut Manning and save many millions of dollars.

And the Packers could save millions if they cut Rodgers and went with Matt Flynn.

The Colts would never cut one of the all-time great QBs who was still playing at a very high level and turn the reigns over to an unproven rookie. If anything, the Colts could see how Manning's recovery is coming along and then trade the #1 pick or trade Luck after drafting and likely get enough players and picks to rebuild their team. An Andrew Luck trade could be the new Hershuel Walker trade.

[jesmu84]

And the Packers could save millions if they cut Rodgers and went with Matt Flynn.

i was more referring to this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6944302/indianapolis-colts-peyton-manning-more-surgery-neck

"It is much too early to predict what will happen, but the Colts can get out of Peyton Manning's contract after one year and $26 million without any other money being guaranteed, a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

According to the source, Manning has a $28 million club option bonus in Year 2 that is due on the fifth day prior to the end of the 2011 league year (which will occurr sometime in late February 2012). But if the Colts cut Manning before that date, they don't have to pay it and Manning would become an unrestricted free agent. "

[brewcity77]

Fact is Luck is the highest rated prospect EVER.  If a team was ever going to throw games to get a pick, this is the guy.

Jeff George was a stud, can't miss QB, and honestly, the hype for him was just as big. Courtney Brown was the best DE since Reggie White. Tony Mandarich (albeit #2, not #1) was the best LT prospect anyone had ever seen. Or there's always the argument of Bo Jackson, who was supposed to be the best RB the game had ever seen...and might have been if not for injuries.

There's no way to know Luck will ever be anything. He might just be the beneficiary of a great college system, like David Carr or Carson Palmer. He could be a guy who looks perfect from the outside but simply doesn't have his head on straight like Jeff George or Ryan Leaf. He could succumb to injuries like Bo Jackson or Ki-Jana Carter. Or he might be a guy like Tim Couch who just isn't that good.

It's all well and good to label him the "best prospect ever", but that's a load of horse-hockey. Every year, every draft is full of guys that are overhyped and underhyped. And usually, it isn't for at least 2-3 years (and often longer) before you know which are which.

[4everwarriors]

Ya know, I opened this thread figurin' to read about the daily activities of some call girl in Las Vegas.

[MUBurrow]

There's no way to know Luck will ever be anything. He might just be the beneficiary of a great college system, like David Carr or Carson Palmer. He could be a guy who looks perfect from the outside but simply doesn't have his head on straight like Jeff George or Ryan Leaf. He could succumb to injuries like Bo Jackson or Ki-Jana Carter. Or he might be a guy like Tim Couch who just isn't that good.

I think the draft should just be a random lottery. Every college player's name goes in, and then each team gets 7 lotto balls. Those are the players they draft.  Same thing.

It's all well and good to label him the "best prospect ever", but that's a load of horse-hockey. Every year, every draft is full of guys that are overhyped and underhyped. And usually, it isn't for at least 2-3 years (and often longer) before you know which are which.

A guy like Luck has been salivated over by NFL scouts for multiple years now. This isn't a combine workout warrior earning a high pick by his workout scores.  He has been dissected time and time again. Unless you think that everything is random, and there is no point to scouts, drafts, or really anything trying to predict sports futures, your complaints about the Luck hype aren't really saying anything. Of course he could get hurt. Anyone could get hurt, but that doesn't prevent Luck's mix of high floor and high ceiling in the NFL from being a once in a decade combo.

And of course best prospect ever means something. Wasn't LeBron the best NBA prospect ever? And there seems to have been something to that. Of course, you can argue that LeBron's physical makeup was revolutionary, and Luck lacks that same man vs boys aspect, but then say that, not that trying to predict the NFL careers of NCAA football players is pointless and stupid.

[Tugg Speedman]

Ya know, I opened this thread figurin' to read about the daily activities of some call girl in Las Vegas.

or Humphrey last fall??????

[Tugg Speedman]

I think the draft should just be a random lottery. Every college player's name goes in, and then each team gets 7 lotto balls. Those are the players they draft.  Same thing.

A guy like Luck has been salivated over by NFL scouts for multiple years now. This isn't a combine workout warrior earning a high pick by his workout scores.  He has been dissected time and time again. Unless you think that everything is random, and there is no point to scouts, drafts, or really anything trying to predict sports futures, your complaints about the Luck hype aren't really saying anything. Of course he could get hurt. Anyone could get hurt, but that doesn't prevent Luck's mix of high floor and high ceiling in the NFL from being a once in a decade combo.

And of course best prospect ever means something. Wasn't LeBron the best NBA prospect ever? And there seems to have been something to that. Of course, you can argue that LeBron's physical makeup was revolutionary, and Luck lacks that same man vs boys aspect, but then say that, not that trying to predict the NFL careers of NCAA football players is pointless and stupid.

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

As noted above, the NFL has been salivating over Luck for two years (and maybe three if he goes back to Stanford next year, which is a possibility) and his hype is not like the hype all the high picks get.  Luck is "the chosen one" for the NFL (to steal Lebron's moniker).  He would have been picked ahead of Newton had he come out last year.

With Luck, you're not picking a QB, your picking multiple Superbowl appearances.  The fact that Jeff George did not pan out before the invention of the internet and was subject to about 1/1,000 the anal exam that Luck has been through is irrelevant. 

Now, of course he could be a bust.  But to ignore him because it happened before is irresponsible.  Don't think the 0-7 Colts are not thinking about him backing up Manning.

[MerrittsMustache]

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

Brian Cushing. He went #15, not #1 but there's definitely an example of a modern day "roid freak" who hasn't been nearly as productive since getting busted. Peeing in a cup doesn't test for HGH either.

[Hards Alumni]

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

As noted above, the NFL has been salivating over Luck for two years (and maybe three if he goes back to Stanford next year, which is a possibility) and his hype is not like the hype all the high picks get.  Luck is "the chosen one" for the NFL (to steal Lebron's moniker).  He would have been picked ahead of Newton had he come out last year.

With Luck, you're not picking a QB, your picking multiple Superbowl appearances.  The fact that Jeff George did not pan out before the invention of the internet and was subject to about 1/1,000 the anal exam that Luck has been through is irrelevant. 

Now, of course he could be a bust.  But to ignore him because it happened before is irresponsible.  Don't think the 0-7 Colts are not thinking about him backing up Manning.

Do you really take yourself seriously?

[Henry Sugar]

There is a lot of research out there about how difficult it is to predict QB performance.  This includes among players that are already in the league and contributing.

http://wagesofwins.net/2009/12/06/the-inconsistent-quarterback-story-told-again-in-less-than-3000-words/

1.  We did find several factors that predict where a quarterback will get drafted.  Specifically, we find that taller, faster, and smarter (i.e. better Wonderlic scores) quarterbacks get drafted first.

2. The factors that predict draft performance, though, don’t predict NFL performance.

3. Given this result, we shouldn’t be surprised that where a quarterback is drafted doesn’t predict how well a quarterback will perform in the NFL.