Suck For Luck

[Tugg Speedman]

How many of you Packer fans (or Bears/Lions) are concerned that the "Viqueens" are going to "Suck for Luck?"  Will they "suck enough" to get him?  If so, do you believe he can terrorize the NFC North for the next decade (like Rodgers now)?

He are leaders for Luck

Indy = 0-6
Miami = 0-5
St. Louis = 0-5
Minnesota = 1-5
Arizona = 1-4
Denver = 1-4

[MU B2002]

Can't see Stl going for him, but don't forget Jax at 1-5.  I don't know if they will win another game.and unfortunately I have season tickets.

[mugrad2006]

Let's not underestimate the weapons that TT has put in place for Rodgers (see Cutler, Jay for a reference point).  Granted, AP is up there in Minny, but it'll be at least 3 years before Luck will be performing at a Rodgers caliber level, likely meaning Peterson's best years will be behind him.  Luck also won't have time to sit on the bench like Rodgers did and learn the ropes.  And of course, Ponder was drafted up there, meaning a #1 pick on Luck makes it harder again to put the necessary weapons around him.

Will the Vikings be better with a legit quarterback?  No doubt
Am I terrified about a college senior who hasn't played an NFL snap yet?  Nope

[MU B2002]

Vikes should suck for Blackmon.  That would concern me more.

[ATLmarquettefan]

Doesn't make sense....why would Vikes waste a first rounder last year on Ponder just to pick luck again this year.

[brewcity77]

Honestly, I wouldn't get overly concerned about it. How many can't miss QB prospects end up missing? Here are the #1 drafted QBs of the past 25 years, and whether they were a boom, bust, or on the bubble:

1987 - Bust Vinny Testaverde, eventually came good, but never came close to the hype
1989 - Boom Troy Aikman, well worth the pick, HOF QB
1990 - Bust Jeff George, never came close to the hype, a few good years, but overall a bust
1993 - Boom Drew Bledsoe was a solid QB, won a Super Bowl, 4-time Pro Bowler
1998 - Boom Peyton Manning is one of the best ever, but he was neck-and-neck with bust Ryan Leaf
1999 - Bust Tim Couch was never what you'd call "good"
2001 - Bubble Michael Vick has had an up-and-down career, passing numbers are bust, 4x Pro Bowler is boom
2002 - Bust David Carr showed some promise but never justified his selection
2003 - Bubble Carson Palmer is a 2-time Pro Bowler, though not exactly a HOF type
2004 - Bubble Eli Manning won a Super Bowl, but hasn't yet quite met the hype
2005 - Bust Alex Smith might turn it around, but he certainly hasn't justified his #1 overall pick yet
2007 - Bust JaMarcus Russell got cut, enough said
2009 - Bubble Matthew Stafford has shown promise, but can't stay healthy
2010 - Bubble Sam Bradford has also shown promise, but it's too early to say
2011 - Bubble Hard to judge Cam Newton in his first year

So that's 3 definite boom players, 6 clear busts, and 6 on the bubble. Either way, when you look at QBs like Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, and Matt Schaub, you see guys that have had more prolific careers than guys drafted ahead of them. I wouldn't panic about Luck just yet, there's every chance he could bust.

[MU B2002]

So you give Bledsoe credit for Brady's Superbowl win?  Interesting.  Only thing Drew did in that game was tote a clipboard and pout.

[Hards Alumni]

Honestly, I wouldn't get overly concerned about it. How many can't miss QB prospects end up missing? Here are the #1 drafted QBs of the past 25 years, and whether they were a boom, bust, or on the bubble:

1987 - Bust Vinny Testaverde, eventually came good, but never came close to the hype
1989 - Boom Troy Aikman, well worth the pick, HOF QB
1990 - Bust Jeff George, never came close to the hype, a few good years, but overall a bust
1993 - Boom Drew Bledsoe was a solid QB, won a Super Bowl, 4-time Pro Bowler
1998 - Boom Peyton Manning is one of the best ever, but he was neck-and-neck with bust Ryan Leaf
1999 - Bust Tim Couch was never what you'd call "good"
2001 - Bubble Michael Vick has had an up-and-down career, passing numbers are bust, 4x Pro Bowler is boom
2002 - Bust David Carr showed some promise but never justified his selection
2003 - Bubble Carson Palmer is a 2-time Pro Bowler, though not exactly a HOF type
2004 - Bubble Eli Manning won a Super Bowl, but hasn't yet quite met the hype
2005 - Bust Alex Smith might turn it around, but he certainly hasn't justified his #1 overall pick yet
2007 - Bust JaMarcus Russell got cut, enough said
2009 - Bubble Matthew Stafford has shown promise, but can't stay healthy
2010 - Bubble Sam Bradford has also shown promise, but it's too early to say
2011 - Bubble Hard to judge Cam Newton in his first year

So that's 3 definite boom players, 6 clear busts, and 6 on the bubble. Either way, when you look at QBs like Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, and Matt Schaub, you see guys that have had more prolific careers than guys drafted ahead of them. I wouldn't panic about Luck just yet, there's every chance he could bust.

+1

Who says Luck is going to be worth a F...

[MerrittsMustache]

Well-researched and very true. However, IMO, all of the pre-2009* "bubbles" should be considered "busts." If a player is a #1 overall pick, he should in theory be an absolute stud. If there's uncertainty, then he's not.

* - It's too soon to tell on Stafford, Bradford and Newton but all have shown flashes that they may be something special.

[Tugg Speedman]

Above you're assuming Luck is "just another #1 pick".  He is not.  He's much more than that.

Luck has been called "best prospect he has ever scouted"

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/14372683/rewind-lucks-stock-rises-even-higher-ingrams-sags

[Hards Alumni]

Above you're assuming Luck is "just another #1 pick".  He is not.  He's much more than that.

Luck has been called "best prospect he has ever scouted"

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/14372683/rewind-lucks-stock-rises-even-higher-ingrams-sags

You're right... no scout has ever been wrong on anything.

Tom Brady.  Joe Montana.  Hell, Aaron Rodgers. 

On the flip side, Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, Rick Mirer.

[jesmu84]

Colts took suck for luck to a new level last night. However, Andrew luck won't turn this team around. They need many new pieces. He'd be the start of a long rebuilding process

[Hards Alumni]

Colts took suck for luck to a new level last night. However, Andrew luck won't turn this team around. They need many new pieces. He'd be the start of a long rebuilding process

I really want Luck to go to Miami.  That team has eaten a whole lot of turd sandwiches since they lost Marino.

[reinko]

I really want Luck to go to Miami.  That team has eaten a whole lot of turd sandwiches since they lost Marino.

I blame ownership.

[Tugg Speedman]

You're right... no scout has ever been wrong on anything.

Tom Brady.  Joe Montana.  Hell, Aaron Rodgers.  

On the flip side, Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, Rick Mirer.

Whether the scouts are right or wrong is a different question. (and yes they were wrong on Rodgers.  If they were right, he would have never fell to the Packers).  Besides saying they were wrong before on other guys, what specifically about Luck says to you he will not live up to the hype?  Is it his NCAA leading passer rating that you're unimpressed by?

Fact is Luck is the highest rated prospect EVER.  If a team was ever going to throw games to get a pick, this is the guy.

Right now it looks like he will go to the perfect situation, he will hold a clip board behind Manning for a few years and, after this year, the Colts will be on the short list for the Superbowl every year until 2025.

[reinko]

Whether the scouts are right or wrong is a different question. (and yes they were wrong on Rodgers.  If they were right, he would have never fell to the Packers).  Besides saying they were wrong before on other guys, what specifically about Luck says to you he will not live up to the hype?  Is it his NCAA leading passer rating that you're unimpressed by?

Fact is Luck is the highest rated prospect EVER.  If a team was ever going to throw games to get a pick, this is the guy.

Right now it looks like he will go to the perfect situation, he will hold a clip board behind Manning for a few years and, after this year, the Colts will be on the short list for the Superbowl every year until 2025.

A few whispers from Luck's camp that if not a good situation (i.e. being forced to sit on the bench behind Peyton Manning for 3+ years, with one of the oldest teams in the NFL with no WR's and no running game), he would pull an Eli and either force a trade, or return to college.

[g0lden3agle]

To consider being drafted by Indianapolis "not a good situation" would be a pretty numb skull move by Luck.  Sure, he won't get playing time right away, but what's the success rate of QB's that are forced into a trial by fire situation? Concerns for age and running game could be addressed in the draft, both this year and coming years.  Saying they have no WR's is an overstatement.  While Wayne and Clark are getting old, Garcon and Collie are only a couple years into the league and could very well have their best years ahead of them.

[GGGG]

I don't think he has any college eligibility left. 

[StillAWarrior]

Right now it looks like he will go to the perfect situation, he will hold a clip board behind Manning for a few years and, after this year, the Colts will be on the short list for the Superbowl every year until 2025.

I think this is an interesting comment.  Do you really think that holding a clip board "for a few years" is really the perfect situation for a QB like Luck?  Aside from Rodgers, I'm having a hard time thinking of many great QBs (especially recently) that waited very long to take over.  I'm sure there are some (feel free to correct me), but I'd venture a guess that they weren't nearly as touted as Luck.

The three "boom" quarterbacks in brewcity's post (Aikman (11), Bledsoe (12) and Manning (16)) started a combined 39 games in their rookie years.  Other notable quarterbacks I checked:

• Elway - Started 10 games rookie year
• Brady - Started 14 games in second year
• Brees - Started 16 games in second year
• Favre - Started 13 games in second year

Whether or not it is, in fact, a perfect situation, it's certainly very rare.  Teams simply don't wait on top quarterback to develop.  I looked at QBs taken in the top 12 picks for the last 10 years.  All but one started the majority of his team's games by the second season.  Here they are and how many games they started in the season in which they apparently took over"

• Newton - 7 (and counting)
• Locker - None (too early to tell)
• Gabbart - 5 (and counting)
• Ponder - 1 (and counting)
• Bradford - 16 (1st Season)
• Stafford - 10 (1st Season)
• Sanchez - 15 (1st Season)
• Ryan - 16 (1st Season)
• Russell - 15 (2nd Season)
• Young - 13 (1st Season)
• LI have a toothachert - 11 (1st Season)
• Cutler - 16 (2nd Season)
• Smith - 16 (2nd Season)
• Manning - 16 (2nd Season)
• Rivers - 16 (3rd Season)
• Roethlisburger - 13 (1st Season)
• Palmer - 13 (1st Season)
• Leftwich - 13 (1st Season)
• Carr - 16 (1st Season)
• Harrington - 12 (1st Season)

Not saying that this is the way is should be done, but recent history shows that this is the way that it is being done.  

For a guy like Luck, I'm not sure which is the better way.

[MerrittsMustache]

I don't think he has any college eligibility left. 

He's a red-shirt junior. He could have come out as a RS Soph last season because, per NFL rules, his HS class was 3 years past graduation.

[reinko]

I don't think he has any college eligibility left. 

Redshirted his freshman year, still has a year.

[reinko]

To consider being drafted by Indianapolis "not a good situation" would be a pretty numb skull move by Luck.  Sure, he won't get playing time right away, but what's the success rate of QB's that are forced into a trial by fire situation? Concerns for age and running game could be addressed in the draft, both this year and coming years.  Saying they have no WR's is an overstatement.  While Wayne and Clark are getting old, Garcon and Collie are only a couple years into the league and could very well have their best years ahead of them.

So if Garcon and Colli'e best years are ahead of them, let's say Andrew Luck is the Indy starting QB, at best by Fall 2015.  That would mean Garcon would be 31 and Collie would be 32.  Not to mention Freeney will be 35, Mathis would be 34, and not too mention this doofus as your head coach.  Indy is far from ideal.

[DegenerateDish]

There are different levels of bad this season.

4 absolutely awful teams (in contention for the first pick)

Rams
Colts
Jaguars
Dolphins

It's an interesting year, usually there's 2 just really awful, awful teams, but this year there are 4.

You have a few bad teams:

Cardinals
Vikings
Seahawks
Broncos

Then you have team mediocre:

Browns

Team that's bad, who's arrow is clearly pointing upwards (good bad team):

Panthers

Teams that looked good, but are probably more bad/mediocre:

Titans, Redskins

Teams that looked bad, but might be good:

Chiefs

Teams that will stay in playoff contention, but are pretty "meh":

Bears, Bucs, Falcons, Raiders, Chargers, Bills, Giants, Jets

Bad team that came out of nowhere to be good (Bills don't count):

Bengals

[g0lden3agle]

So if Garcon and Colli'e best years are ahead of them, let's say Andrew Luck is the Indy starting QB, at best by Fall 2015.  That would mean Garcon would be 31 and Collie would be 32.  Not to mention Freeney will be 35, Mathis would be 34, and not too mention this doofus as your head coach.  Indy is far from ideal.

If we're saying he's not starting until 2015, that still only puts Garcon at 29 and Collie at 30, meaning they could realistically have a handful of years left in their tanks to play at a solid level.  I'll give you that Freeney and Mathis will be over the hill, but Indy has proven to be a solid team in terms of reloading on the fly.  It's tough to predict how they'll look even a year in the future with how early they will be drafting this coming year.  A solid 2-3 drafts in a row and they'll be fine for the foreseeable future.

Whenever age comes into play with teams that have been solid for roughly an entire decade I take it with a grain of salt.  To be that good for that long the organization has to be doing something right, and odds are they will find a way to overcome their old age in ways that may not be apparent at the present date.

[Tugg Speedman]

I think this is an interesting comment.  Do you really think that holding a clip board "for a few years" is really the perfect situation for a QB like Luck?  Aside from Rodgers, I'm having a hard time thinking of many great QBs (especially recently) that waited very long to take over.  I'm sure there are some (feel free to correct me), but I'd venture a guess that they weren't nearly as touted as Luck.

All the options you cited were teams with no QB.  Luck in Indy is exactly like Rodgers in GB.  Luck is NOT pushing Manning and his $100 million contract out.  Nor should he.  You should expect Manning to return next year and be one of the best in the league.

So, he holds a clipboard for two or three years.

[jesmu84]

All the options you cited were teams with no QB.  Luck in Indy is exactly like Rodgers in GB.  Luck is NOT pushing Manning and his $100 million contract out.  Nor should he.  You should expect Manning to return next year and be one of the best in the league.

So, he holds a clipboard for two or three years.

Although... If the colts do get luck, I believe this offseason they have the option to cut Manning and save many millions of dollars.

[StillAWarrior]

All the options you cited were teams with no QB.  Luck in Indy is exactly like Rodgers in GB.  Luck is NOT pushing Manning and his $100 million contract out.  Nor should he.  You should expect Manning to return next year and be one of the best in the league.

So, he holds a clipboard for two or three years.

I don't disagree.  The reason they typically start right away is that teams with quality QBs don't usually use a high draft pick on a QB.  I was really making two points:  1) I'm not sure Luck would view that as a perfect situation because many exceptional QBs have started very early in their careers; and 2) it is very, very rare these days for a high draft pick QB to wait more than a year to start -- Rodgers is, I think, more the exception than the rule.  But to be fair, looking at the QB leaders the last few years, I see these additional examples of guys who carried the clip board for 2+ years:  Schaub, Fitzpatrick, Romo, Cassell, Pennington.


On a related note, I think it's also fair to wonder how Peyton is going to come through this injury and whether his backup might be pressed into service before "several years" from now.

[MerrittsMustache]

Although... If the colts do get luck, I believe this offseason they have the option to cut Manning and save many millions of dollars.

And the Packers could save millions if they cut Rodgers and went with Matt Flynn.

The Colts would never cut one of the all-time great QBs who was still playing at a very high level and turn the reigns over to an unproven rookie. If anything, the Colts could see how Manning's recovery is coming along and then trade the #1 pick or trade Luck after drafting and likely get enough players and picks to rebuild their team. An Andrew Luck trade could be the new Hershuel Walker trade.

[jesmu84]

And the Packers could save millions if they cut Rodgers and went with Matt Flynn.

i was more referring to this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6944302/indianapolis-colts-peyton-manning-more-surgery-neck

"It is much too early to predict what will happen, but the Colts can get out of Peyton Manning's contract after one year and $26 million without any other money being guaranteed, a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

According to the source, Manning has a $28 million club option bonus in Year 2 that is due on the fifth day prior to the end of the 2011 league year (which will occurr sometime in late February 2012). But if the Colts cut Manning before that date, they don't have to pay it and Manning would become an unrestricted free agent. "

[brewcity77]

Fact is Luck is the highest rated prospect EVER.  If a team was ever going to throw games to get a pick, this is the guy.

Jeff George was a stud, can't miss QB, and honestly, the hype for him was just as big. Courtney Brown was the best DE since Reggie White. Tony Mandarich (albeit #2, not #1) was the best LT prospect anyone had ever seen. Or there's always the argument of Bo Jackson, who was supposed to be the best RB the game had ever seen...and might have been if not for injuries.

There's no way to know Luck will ever be anything. He might just be the beneficiary of a great college system, like David Carr or Carson Palmer. He could be a guy who looks perfect from the outside but simply doesn't have his head on straight like Jeff George or Ryan Leaf. He could succumb to injuries like Bo Jackson or Ki-Jana Carter. Or he might be a guy like Tim Couch who just isn't that good.

It's all well and good to label him the "best prospect ever", but that's a load of horse-hockey. Every year, every draft is full of guys that are overhyped and underhyped. And usually, it isn't for at least 2-3 years (and often longer) before you know which are which.

[4everwarriors]

Ya know, I opened this thread figurin' to read about the daily activities of some call girl in Las Vegas.

[MUBurrow]

There's no way to know Luck will ever be anything. He might just be the beneficiary of a great college system, like David Carr or Carson Palmer. He could be a guy who looks perfect from the outside but simply doesn't have his head on straight like Jeff George or Ryan Leaf. He could succumb to injuries like Bo Jackson or Ki-Jana Carter. Or he might be a guy like Tim Couch who just isn't that good.

I think the draft should just be a random lottery. Every college player's name goes in, and then each team gets 7 lotto balls. Those are the players they draft.  Same thing.

It's all well and good to label him the "best prospect ever", but that's a load of horse-hockey. Every year, every draft is full of guys that are overhyped and underhyped. And usually, it isn't for at least 2-3 years (and often longer) before you know which are which.

A guy like Luck has been salivated over by NFL scouts for multiple years now. This isn't a combine workout warrior earning a high pick by his workout scores.  He has been dissected time and time again. Unless you think that everything is random, and there is no point to scouts, drafts, or really anything trying to predict sports futures, your complaints about the Luck hype aren't really saying anything. Of course he could get hurt. Anyone could get hurt, but that doesn't prevent Luck's mix of high floor and high ceiling in the NFL from being a once in a decade combo.

And of course best prospect ever means something. Wasn't LeBron the best NBA prospect ever? And there seems to have been something to that. Of course, you can argue that LeBron's physical makeup was revolutionary, and Luck lacks that same man vs boys aspect, but then say that, not that trying to predict the NFL careers of NCAA football players is pointless and stupid.

[Tugg Speedman]

Ya know, I opened this thread figurin' to read about the daily activities of some call girl in Las Vegas.

or Humphrey last fall??????

[Tugg Speedman]

I think the draft should just be a random lottery. Every college player's name goes in, and then each team gets 7 lotto balls. Those are the players they draft.  Same thing.

A guy like Luck has been salivated over by NFL scouts for multiple years now. This isn't a combine workout warrior earning a high pick by his workout scores.  He has been dissected time and time again. Unless you think that everything is random, and there is no point to scouts, drafts, or really anything trying to predict sports futures, your complaints about the Luck hype aren't really saying anything. Of course he could get hurt. Anyone could get hurt, but that doesn't prevent Luck's mix of high floor and high ceiling in the NFL from being a once in a decade combo.

And of course best prospect ever means something. Wasn't LeBron the best NBA prospect ever? And there seems to have been something to that. Of course, you can argue that LeBron's physical makeup was revolutionary, and Luck lacks that same man vs boys aspect, but then say that, not that trying to predict the NFL careers of NCAA football players is pointless and stupid.

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

As noted above, the NFL has been salivating over Luck for two years (and maybe three if he goes back to Stanford next year, which is a possibility) and his hype is not like the hype all the high picks get.  Luck is "the chosen one" for the NFL (to steal Lebron's moniker).  He would have been picked ahead of Newton had he come out last year.

With Luck, you're not picking a QB, your picking multiple Superbowl appearances.  The fact that Jeff George did not pan out before the invention of the internet and was subject to about 1/1,000 the anal exam that Luck has been through is irrelevant. 

Now, of course he could be a bust.  But to ignore him because it happened before is irresponsible.  Don't think the 0-7 Colts are not thinking about him backing up Manning.

[MerrittsMustache]

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

Brian Cushing. He went #15, not #1 but there's definitely an example of a modern day "roid freak" who hasn't been nearly as productive since getting busted. Peeing in a cup doesn't test for HGH either.

[Hards Alumni]

+1 ...

All the busts noted above (see Tony Mandarich) were in an era of small contracts and much less scrutiny.  Mandarich was a bust because the Packers did not know he was a "roid freak" and once off the juice, he was not that good.  That cannot happen today.  These guys all pee in cup a dozen times before the draft.

As noted above, the NFL has been salivating over Luck for two years (and maybe three if he goes back to Stanford next year, which is a possibility) and his hype is not like the hype all the high picks get.  Luck is "the chosen one" for the NFL (to steal Lebron's moniker).  He would have been picked ahead of Newton had he come out last year.

With Luck, you're not picking a QB, your picking multiple Superbowl appearances.  The fact that Jeff George did not pan out before the invention of the internet and was subject to about 1/1,000 the anal exam that Luck has been through is irrelevant. 

Now, of course he could be a bust.  But to ignore him because it happened before is irresponsible.  Don't think the 0-7 Colts are not thinking about him backing up Manning.

Do you really take yourself seriously?

[Henry Sugar]

There is a lot of research out there about how difficult it is to predict QB performance.  This includes among players that are already in the league and contributing.

http://wagesofwins.net/2009/12/06/the-inconsistent-quarterback-story-told-again-in-less-than-3000-words/

1.  We did find several factors that predict where a quarterback will get drafted.  Specifically, we find that taller, faster, and smarter (i.e. better Wonderlic scores) quarterbacks get drafted first.

2. The factors that predict draft performance, though, don’t predict NFL performance.

3. Given this result, we shouldn’t be surprised that where a quarterback is drafted doesn’t predict how well a quarterback will perform in the NFL.