Are We Really Going to Be As Good As Everyone Thinks?

[dgies9156]

I've been reading about the upcoming season and it keeps mentioning us as a Top 20 team. Vitale thinks we're poised to have a great year and the consensus is that despite our Big East conference toughness, we should be VERY good.

Perhaps even "Al" good!

All this talk has me nervous. I know we did well in the NCAAs against Syracuse and Xavier, but we lost our scorer in Jimmy Butler. DJO is good and we have a couple of strong newcomers, but it seems there are as many questions for next year as answers.

Some of those questions are:

1) Where will the senior leadership come from? At times last year it seemed like the team went to sleep on itself and was most reluctant to step up. Will that person be DJO, Davante, Junior or Vander?

2) What will become of Vander Blue? This guy has boatloads of talent and it we're to become a Top 5 program again, it's really important that he develop into what we think he should be. We have a great record developing low first round NBA talent, but Vander was a Top 50 recruit and someone who most thought was "can't miss." If he misses, what does that say for our ability to attract Top 50 talent?

3) Are our newbies ready to step up? This is a big question. If they are, maybe Vitale is right! If they're delayed a year or more, what happens to our competitiveness this fall.

4) Can we handle our schedule? This one is not easy. We have the usual cupcakes, but we have the Big East and Vandy coming in. These teams can turn men into mice really quickly.

I think our program is headed in the right direction, but I am concerned that our expectations for this year are awfully high. Am I right to be concerned? What does my old friend Brew think?

[MUUWUWM]

Whats with the yellow..can't read it at all. Are those players your mentioning or links, or just bad words?

[dgies9156]

Whats with the yellow..can't read it at all. Are those players your mentioning or links, or just bad words?

Oops. Look now.

[Brewtown Andy]

I've been reading about the upcoming season and it keeps mentioning us as a Top 20 team. Vitale thinks we're poised to have a great year and the consensus is that despite our Big East conference toughness, we should be VERY good.

Perhaps even "Al" good!

All this talk has me nervous. I know we did well in the NCAAs against Syracuse and Xavier, but we lost our scorer in Jimmy Butler.

There was only a 0.1 difference between Jimmy & DJO's average by the end of the season.

If you look at MU's ESPN profile page, they were 32nd in PPG, 19th in assists per game, and 33rd in FG%.  If they can replicate top 40 performances in those three and play even 1% better defensively, watch out.

[brewcity77]

Personally, I think much of it comes down to health. If we're healthy, we can be really good. Our top 8 players (Buzz's usual rotation) includes three proven starters in DJO, Crowder, and Otule, three bench players that have been productive in the past in Cadougan, Blue, and Gardner, and one unknown but potentially exciting player in Wilson. The only unknown is number 8, which seems likely to be Jamail (initially).

To address the questions...

1. My vote goes to Crowder. I think he will be the heart and soul of this team. He has a year of experience and wasn't afraid to show emotion last year. In crunch time, however, I expect DJO to be our go-to guy. He showed that ability against UConn and with his late shot against Syracuse.

2. I still like Vander's chances. His shot looked more consistent over the summer, he's in much better physical shape, and he seemed willing to play a PG role. I don't know if he'll ever meet our expectations, but I do think he'll be a lock-down defender off the bench and an able backup at 3 positions. That's all he needs to be this year.

3. I expect Jamil Wilson to step up, but I'm guessing that's not who you mean. Typically, Buzz doesn't give many minutes to freshmen, especially once Big East play rolls around. My hope is that either Jones or one of the three freshmen can get 5-8 mpg in the Big East slate. That should be enough to give us decent depth.

4. My biggest worry is overlooking our cupcakes. Northern Colorado and Jacksonville are the types of teams that can get surprise wins. Will we get up for them? The key however is the Paradise Jam. We should win it on paper. If we do, we should be off to a 5-0 start with momentum. If we do that, then I'd call it a successful non-con if we won our expected home games and split against LSU, Wisky, Vandy, and Washington. 11-2 will be a success when you consider how tough that road is. Anything better and we'll probably be top ten when January rolls around.

But it still all comes down to health. I think that this team is Buzz's best since his first year. I know it's near sacrilege, but we might be even better than that team. Expectations should be high, but one injury to the wrong guy and we might have the same crashing reality that team did when James went down.

[Tugg Speedman]

If you look at MU's ESPN profile page, they were 32nd in PPG, 19th in assists per game, and 33rd in FG%.  If they can replicate top 40 performances in those three and play even 1% better defensively, watch out.

+1

Last year's team was "Al" good on offense.  Ths year's team should be the same.  If this year's team can step up the defense, then look out!

(Of course all this assumes no major injuries).

[bilsu]

I do not know why people get excited about what Vitale said. As I remember it, someone asked about their team being a surprise team. Vitale came out and said that team would have a great year and then added maybe MU could have a great year. I took that to mean he was confident about the other team, but not confident about us. Either nway, you have to take it Vitale as saying, if MU  has a great year it will be surprise. Being a sleeper team just means you have potential to be good, if the ball bounces your way.

[GGGG]

Do you guys honestly think Vitale does any research on this kind of stuff?  Cmon....  Anyway we can be very good if....

1. Junior steps up like we are hoping he can.

2. Jamil proves to be a decent replacement for JFB.  He doesn't have to do everything that Butler did, but needs to be adequate.

3. We need two or three players to make big strides from last year.  We have mentioned Blue, Gardner, Jones...along with Anderson and Mayo.  A couple of those guys have to take that next step.

4. They simply need to be better defensively.

[GOO]

I usually am negative and think we'll be worse than we end up being. That said I think this team could be a very, very good team. Still young, but with a lot of pieces and talent at all 5 positions.

There are always questions. Always issues. One never knows - who would have thought Buzz's second year team would be any good?  Team chemistry can be an issue. But I like this teams chances of being very good.  If we start the season strong, which I think we will, a top 10 type of team. But last years team was almost out of it with a few games to go, but won enough. So who knows.

I'd lay off vander. Let him become the player he is, not based upon highschool projections.

[dgies9156]

Brew, I agree with you, believe it or not. But my concern is that we're somehow basing this season off two very good games in Xavier and Syracuse. Yes, the latter was astounding and Vitale probably has the Orange overrated this year.

Still, last year's body of work was inconsistent. Anyone who saw that Cincinnati game had to wonder whether last year's team had the mojo to even make the NCAA. And the Seton Hall game was, well, sad.

Everybody has an off night and judging a new year by last year's is as foolish as judging this year's team by two games in the NCAA. But if we're going to be Top 10, leadership, even more than health, is everything. We can't lose because we don't show up, as we did a couple of times last year.

[brewcity77]

I do not know why people get excited about what Vitale said. As I remember it, someone asked about their team being a surprise team.

He also has us in his preseason top-20, so despite him mentioning us as a surprise, he doesn't seem to think we'd be that much of a surprise.

[NersEllenson]

To me this year's team's expectations should be Sweet 16.  Less than that would be a disappointment, more than that would slightly exceed expectations.  In my view it is a matchup that determines if this is an Elite 8 team or Sweet 16 team.  I would be disappointed with less than a Sweet 16 finish - but I'd still be a Buzz fanboy anyway!

[Goose]

Expectations are high across the board. We have ten guys that all can play ball and that is big. As for being "Al" good, gimme a break. Those teams played defense at a completely different level.

[Skatastrophy]

My expectations for the regular season are a little bit higher.  I definitely think we can do better than 9-9 in conference.  Probably 12-6, imo.

Now the NCAA tourney? That's a crapshoot.  Depending on where we're placed we could end up with a cake Sweet-16 walk, or a very tough 1st and 2nd round.  I'd be nice to make a run, but unless you're a 3+ seed it's ofentimes equal parts luck and talent.

I just hope we play defense this year.  Last year was tough to watch.

[brewcity77]

Brew, I agree with you, believe it or not. But my concern is that we're somehow basing this season off two very good games in Xavier and Syracuse. Yes, the latter was astounding and Vitale probably has the Orange overrated this year.

Still, last year's body of work was inconsistent. Anyone who saw that Cincinnati game had to wonder whether last year's team had the mojo to even make the NCAA. And the Seton Hall game was, well, sad.

Everybody has an off night and judging a new year by last year's is as foolish as judging this year's team by two games in the NCAA. But if we're going to be Top 10, leadership, even more than health, is everything. We can't lose because we don't show up, as we did a couple of times last year.

We were inconsistent last year, but our season largely came down to coin flips. What if we don't play like crap against Gonzaga? What if Vandy misses the last shot, or DJO hits the runner? What if we hold on against Loserville and Notre Dame? We just as easily could have been 27-10 last year as we were 22-15.

That's why I like our chances. I think we will be more consistent. While we lost 4 seniors, I think that we have a steadier hand at PG, just as good of senior leadership (I really like Jae as a leader), and enough improvement in returning players to offset the loss of JFB.

We'll have some disappointments, might have a few stinkers, but if we're healthy, I honestly expect a top-4 Big East finish and a top-4 seed. Predicting the NCAAs is always dicey, it's a match-up crapshoot, but I feel very good going into the season.

[muhs03]

Yeah, not sure why anyone would base next year's performance based on 3 games in the ncaa tournament. In retrospect, Xavier was not THAT good and Syracuse played with 4 freshman and their starting sg missed the 2nd half. Plus, we had already beaten them and we match up reasonably well against the zone so long as crowder and djo were hitting.

Regardless, i think we will finish 3-5 in BE standings. The only team that seems above the rest is UL. Im excited to see what Khem Birch does at Pitt (their first ever AA). I think Cuse will only be as good as their sophs and 2 freshmen AA's (which is asking a lot). UConn strikes me as possibly being the most over-rated but that happens to every team that wins the ncaa tournament. Nova and GTown will be down.

[Sharpie]

If we stay healthy this year then I think we will have a very good season. We know what we are getting from Jae and DJO. I think Jae will make some strides from last year and DJO will be more consistent.

If Junior is healthy all year long then I think he will be the main key to how far we go this year. I really have a good feeling about the way he will play this year. Everyone talks about Jae and/or DJO being our leader. I agree to some extent but there have been mentions how much of a leader Junior is. I think he steps up in a big way this year.

The other kep component is how much Vander and the rest improve from the beginning to the end of the season. I am not expecting huge numbers from either him or Jamil but I think they will bring much more to the team with intangibles and doing a little bit of everything.

There are a lot of questions about this team but I know I am sure excited about this group of guys. Moreso than the last few years.

[Golden Avalanche]

We were inconsistent last year, but our season largely came down to coin flips. What if we don't play like crap against Gonzaga? What if Vandy misses the last shot, or DJO hits the runner? What if we hold on against Loserville and Notre Dame? We just as easily could have been 27-10 last year as we were 22-15.

Perhaps people are skittish because it seemed they didn't learn their lesson from November to March?

There were collapses early, middle, and late for Marquette. With that being the majority of their experience, can't blame some for thinking it was more than just a coin flip determining the inconsistency.

[Brewtown Andy]

Everyone talks about Jae and/or DJO being our leader. I agree to some extent but there have been mentions how much of a leader Junior is. I think he steps up in a big way this year. 

I have a theory about the team the last few years.  The Amigos kept each other accountable and had a leadership grip on the team.  Lazar learned from them and had the same grip.  I never felt that anyone had that grip last year.  Someone needs to grab control of the team, and I think Junior and Jamil might be the best two candidates.

[NersEllenson]

I have a theory about the team the last few years.  The Amigos kept each other accountable and had a leadership grip on the team.  Lazar learned from them and had the same grip.  I never felt that anyone had that grip last year.  Someone needs to grab control of the team, and I think Junior and Jamil might be the best two candidates.

I tend to disagree as I don't see anyway Jamil would be the leader of this team - he is way too jovial, easy going, friendly (from what it appears), to have that ruthless, cutthorat, competitive edge most leaders of sports teams have.  Jae Crowder to me is the clear cut candidate to lead the team.  Jae has some of the above intangibles, and has a toughness about him I'm not sure any other MU player has.

[brewcity77]

So I was thinking about the leadership role...here are guys I think could step up:

• Jae Crowder: He plays with a lot of emotion and probably had more rousing, chest-pumping photo ops than anyone else last year. He led his JUCO team to a national title. Now as a senior, he may feel he doesn't have to defer to JFB anymore, and he isn't the new guy anymore.
  
• Jamil Wilson: Jamil was the team's biggest cheerleader last year. But in many ways, he's still the new guy. I think he's a year from being able to truly take the reins, unless he has a Wesley Johnson-like season.
  
• Junior Cadougan: I think he can lead, but he seems a bit quiet. He's been around as long as anyone, though, and plays the perfect position to lead from. I could see a two-headed monster with Jae leading emotionally and Junior being the calming influence.
  
• Darius Johnson-Odom: He's been a second option for 2 years now, but as the senior seemingly poised for a breakout season, maybe he will step up not only his play but his talismanic influence. He's been content to be play second fiddle, now he no longer has to.

I really can't see anyone else. If Junior comes across as quiet, Otule is mute. He can lead the defense with his play, but won't be the guy anyone rallies behind. Blue, Gardner, and Jones just don't seem to have enough on-court yet to take the reins. And frankly, I haven't seen that level of maturity yet. Maybe as juniors, but I doubt it now. As far as the freshmen, I think Anderson will be a great leader, but not this year.

[GGGG]

I don't know why you think someone needs to be "ruthless" or "cutthroat" to lead a team.  I just think you have to perform well, work hard, and be vocal.  The best bosses I have had were fairly jovial and easy going, but they also performed.

And I am not sure about Jae.  He wasn't around last summer, arrived for the first time in the fall, and didn't stick around this summer.  I know the prior summer was not his choice, but this summer certainly was.  Jamil has actually been around this team longer than Jae has in that regard.

I don't DJO is going to fill that role either.  One of the things that disturbed me the most about the Vander Blue incident where he was cited was that he was with DJO, who didn't pull him away or intervene.  I know it is just one incident, and I probably shouldn't read a lot into it, but it worries me.

In fact one of the things that concerns me greatly is the leadership on this team next year.  But I think Jamil might be one of them by the end of the year.

[bilsu]

Team leader has to be somebody the team likes and respects. My only complaint about Jimmy Butler was that he was not aggressive enough on offense. I think J. Wilson might be even less aggressive. However, it seems like Wilson is a real people person and players like playing with him. That could end up making him the team leader.

[brewcity77]

I don't DJO is going to fill that role either.  One of the things that disturbed me the most about the Vander Blue incident where he was cited was that he was with DJO, who didn't pull him away or intervene.  I know it is just one incident, and I probably shouldn't read a lot into it, but it worries me.

I'm not sure that's accurate. I remember talking with someone about that incident and hearing that DJO wasn't right there when it started, and that he went to pull Blue away once he saw it escalating. I have a vague memory of the conversation, but as I recall DJO pulled Blue outside, the guys followed and that's where the alleged shove happened.

I wasn't there, I can't say definitively, but I do remember at least one story about how DJO tried to de-escalate that situation.

[NersEllenson]

I don't know why you think someone needs to be "ruthless" or "cutthroat" to lead a team.  I just think you have to perform well, work hard, and be vocal.  The best bosses I have had were fairly jovial and easy going, but they also performed.

And I am not sure about Jae.  He wasn't around last summer, arrived for the first time in the fall, and didn't stick around this summer.  I know the prior summer was not his choice, but this summer certainly was.  Jamil has actually been around this team longer than Jae has in that regard.

I don't DJO is going to fill that role either.  One of the things that disturbed me the most about the Vander Blue incident where he was cited was that he was with DJO, who didn't pull him away or intervene.  I know it is just one incident, and I probably shouldn't read a lot into it, but it worries me.

In fact one of the things that concerns me greatly is the leadership on this team next year.  But I think Jamil might be one of them by the end of the year.

The arena of playing high major college ball is not the same as the work world Sultan.  Jamil is a very nice kid - he may be well liked by his teammates - but does he have the tenacity and toughness to lead in tough times?  Jamil is so gifted, that it is more difficult for a kid like him to develop the grit and toughness a Jimmy B, or Jae, or Lazar,has had to develop due to not being as gifted.

To me, the best leaders on sports teams have a grit, and almost surliness about them..the stems from their ultra-competitive drive:  Jordan, Kobe, Bird, Barkley, Favre, Aikman, etc.  Jamil is like a LeBron James - probably better as a Robin than a Batman...

I want to see someone on next year's team step up and demand the ball at clutch time - to me, if that happens, we'll have identified our leader.