Role of Freshmen Next Year

[GGGG]

2002MUAlum pointed this out in the Jake Thomas thread about our expectations for Juan for the next year.  During the last couple of years, freshmen have not seen the floor much.  What role to people believe that our freshmen will play next year.

Here is a look at some of the minutes played last year, and where I think they may go to next year...

DJO: 30 --> 35
Jae: 28 --> 32
Blue: 19 --> 25
Junior: 20 --> 28
Otule: 18 --> 25
Ox: 9 --> 15
Jamil: 0 --> 25

Those are some big jumps too.  Will Otule and Ox be able to go another seven and six respectively?  Not sure.  How good will Jamil really be?

Anyway, this leaves 15 mpg left.  Does Jamail get all of those?  Does Juan earn some as at least some height off the bench?  Who will our back up at point be?

[Nukem2]

Not so sure of the mix of minutes you present.  I do suspect that Anderson and Derrick Wilson will get on the court as they are touted as good defenders.  Mayo is uncertain as his offense seems to be better at this point...?  Todd may be the odd man out in the rotation.. for 2011-2012...?

[Pakuni]

Anyway, this leaves 15 mpg left.  Does Jamail get all of those?  Does Juan earn some as at least some height off the bench?  Who will our back up at point be?

I think Jamail and Juan will get a chance to compete for minutes at the three when Jamil is taking a rest or swinging over to the four. Jamail should have an obvious edge, having been in the system for a year, but I think he'll have to show a little more than he did last year to keep that edge.

Derrick Wilson seems like the most likely backup at the point, with Dave Singleton as Plan B. Nothing against Singleton, but I think we'll be much better off if it doesn't regularly come to that.

[MUMac]

I think Buzz is hoping for a better mix of time on the court.  He would like to get away from the reliance of the Haywards/Butlers taking 35+ minutes.  To me, his perfect mix would be to keep DJO and Jae around the 30 minute level. 

As to Jae specifically, though, he needs to learn how to play without making the silly fouls that keep him in foul trouble.  That will limit his time.  Hayward learned this under Buzz.  Hopefully Jae learns this as well.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Blue and Smith got their chances last year, so maybe the new guys will get their chances if they can prove that they can defend.

However, I just don't see many minutes available for them, which is good.

Otule 22
Jae 30
Wilson 25
DJO 30
Junior 30

Blue 25
Gardner 18
Jones 10
(Williams... errr... nope)
Wilson 8
Anderson 2 (Jamil Jones frosh min.)
Mayo (club Trill)

I guess back-up PF is the spot where some minutes could be earned. It's possible that Wilson could play some minutes there. I could also see Blue getting some PG minutes depending upon D. Wilson's abilities to play spot minutes.

Having Reggie and Erik Williams this season would have been some nice depth, and I don't think any frosh would be getting clock. However, those guys have moved on, so there are some minutes (maybe 15) that could be filled by frosh.

The rotations this year will be interesting again. I don't really understand Buzz's mad scientist routine, but I trust that he knows more than I do... so I'll roll with it.

[LAMUfan]

I think Jamil and Juan will get a chance to compete for minutes at the three when Jamil is taking a rest or swinging over to the four. Jamil should have an obvious edge, having been in the system for a year, but I think he'll have to show a little more than he did last year to keep that edge.

Derrick Wilson seems like the most likely backup at the point, with Dave Singleton as Plan B. Nothing against Singleton, but I think we'll be much better off if it doesn't regularly come to that.

What?  The jamil jamail thing is to complicated for us.  Nick names need to be developed to simplify discussion for posters.

[LAMUfan]

"The Mailman" and  "Jamilionare", screw Carl Malone it works

[GGGG]

I think Buzz is hoping for a better mix of time on the court.  He would like to get away from the reliance of the Haywards/Butlers taking 35+ minutes.  To me, his perfect mix would be to keep DJO and Jae around the 30 minute level.  

I agree with the fact that he wants to have that philosophy, but I wonder come crunch time if that will actually happen.  I have no doubt that he will fiddle around with line ups like he did at the beginning of next year, but he may have to do what he did with big minutes for a select few.

[bilsu]

I think Juan is the only freshman that will see significant minutes. Jones will get as many minutes as Erik did.

Both Otule's and Gardner's minutes depend on conditioning. I would expect Gardner's conditioning to improve more than Otule's, because he has more room to improve. At the start I think Singleton plays more than either Mayo or Wilson. He knows MU system and has three years of college basketball under his belt. He could be pushed down by either Mayo or Wilson as the season progresses. The more playing time Juan gets, the more time Blue gets at guard spot, which will push down the playing times of Singleton, Mayo and Wilson.

At the start of the season I will rank the players as follows:

C. Otule, Gardner, Crowder
PF Crowder, Wilson, Anderson
SF Wilson, , Blue, Anderson, Jones
SG DJO, Blue, Singleton, Jones, Mayo
PG Cadougan, Blue, Singleton and Wilson.

[BCHoopster]

The X factor on minutes is all Vander Blue.  Blue needs huge improvement on the O end to play.  Now
if Cadougan shows more O skills that will help Blue as well.  You can not have Otule, Blue and Cadougan
on the court at the sametime unless there skills change.  Can not play 2 on 5.

[TedBaxter]

I think Todd Mayo gets the most minutes of the freshman, although with less depth at forward, Juan Anderson will see his share with Jamail Jones.

[We R Final Four]

If Van gets 25 mpg we are in a world of hurt.

Karl Malone not Carl Malone.  Karl is a Hall of Famer you think that maybe you may have seen his name in print once before.

[GGGG]

Vander is definately going to see an increase in minutes next year.  I don't think from 19 mpg to 25 mpg is that much of a stretch.  What other options are there?  Like it or not, him and Junior are essentially tied as the guards with the second most experience.

And I think he improves quite a bit going into year two.

[LAMUfan]

easy...

[brewcity77]

Here are my current PT guesses...

Starters

Otule 23
Crowder 30
J. Wilson 25
DJO 32
Cadougan 28

Bench

Blue 24
Gardner 13
Jones 10
D. Wilson 6
Anderson 6
Mayo 2
Singleton 1

Otule and Gardner will get the lion's share at center, with Crowder occasionally sliding over. I'd love to see Otule and Gardner able to manage a few more minutes, but I'm not sure either is ready for that. I could also see scenarios where Jamil Wilson plays some center, at least on the defensive end.

At power forward, Jae will take the bulk of the time, with Jamil Wilson and Anderson filling in some. As in previous years, I expect it to be more of an inside-out position rather than a traditional banging four.

The three will mostly be manned by Wilson, I expect him to log at least 20 mpg there. I think this is also where Jones and Blue will see meaningful minutes. Fill in the rest with Anderson.

Shooting guard is DJO's position. He'll play all of his minutes there, with Blue and Jones giving him time to rest. Mayo gets in for mop-up time, mostly.

Point guard will be Cadougan. I think Blue will log some decent minutes here as well, basically Mr. Everything off the bench, with Derrick Wilson also putting in time here. When we do see Singleton, this is where I expect him, and if he's better than advertised, I think if anything he'll cut into Wilson's minutes at this position.

[NersEllenson]

I think Todd Mayo gets the most minutes of the freshman, although with less depth at forward, Juan Anderson will see his share with Jamail Jones.

Agree.  Think Mayo is the most polished offensively of the newcomers, and next year's team could use some scoring punch from all appearances - Outside of DJO and Crowder and maybe Wilson/Gardner - who can be counted on for offense?

[GGGG]

Ners, I think Jamail, after a year in the program, will be a better offensive player than Mayo next year.

[tower912]

The one we NEED to contribute is Juan.    Getting useful minutes from him and JJones may be the difference between elite 8 and on the bubble.    OK, this assumes that Vander makes the typical frosh to sophomore leap that 4 star recruits supposedly typically make.     There are 15-20 minutes a game available backing up JWilson and Crowder.  

[NersEllenson]

Ners, I think Jamail, after a year in the program, will be a better offensive player than Mayo next year.

Hopefully - hard to get a handle on these things as we saw so little of Jones last year, and have yet to see Mayo in a college uniform.  Having said that, Mayo's stock was really rising this spring, and with that 5th year of High School (Prep School), he could be a little more advanced than a typical freshman.  From the limited play I've seen, to me Jamail Jones looks more like a Jimmy Butler type (more passive offensively), and Mayo looks more dynamic as a playmaker/scorer....

[MUMac]

I agree with the fact that he wants to have that philosophy, but I wonder come crunch time if that will actually happen.  I have no doubt that he will fiddle around with line ups like he did at the beginning of next year, but he may have to do what he did with big minutes for a select few.

The thought this comment gave me was Buzz' confidence in Butler and Hayward.  He hated to take them off the floor, because they were consistent and the team was better with them on the floor.  Jae could have that kind of effect next year.  DJO needs more consistency, though, for Buzz to have that comfort.

Interesting discussions in this thread.

[bilsu]

Hopefully - hard to get a handle on these things as we saw so little of Jones last year, and have yet to see Mayo in a college uniform.  Having said that, Mayo's stock was really rising this spring, and with that 5th year of High School (Prep School), he could be a little more advanced than a typical freshman.  From the limited play I've seen, to me Jamail Jones looks more like a Jimmy Butler type (more passive offensively), and Mayo looks more dynamic as a playmaker/scorer....

You giver credit for Mayo for playing a fifth year of high school and ignore the fact that Singleton started two years in college and has a third year as a redshirt. Mayo was only rated an 89. Wilson is rated 90 and recruits ranked that low just do not play as freshmen in the Big East, especially for a team that already has DJO, Cadougan and Blue. Jones was rated 94 or 95 and did not play.  Williams was rated high also and did not play. Unless you think that Mayo and Wilson were significantly underrated there simply is no reason to expect them to play as freshmen. Of course you can point to Gardner and say ratings do no matter. However, in Gardner's case he is a center, were MU does not have much depth. The biggest thing for Buzz is whether the player can play defense. Anderson and Wilson have a shot to play because of that. Mayo at this point is just known for shooting. We already have Jones for that and he did not play as a freshmen.

[Marquette84]

The one we NEED to contribute is Juan.    Getting useful minutes from him and JJones may be the difference between elite 8 and on the bubble.    

From a purely pragmatic point of view, the one we really need to contribute is Derrick Wilson.  Cadougan isn't going to play 40 mpg and I'm not convinced Blue is the answer at the point.

After addressing the point, we can get 160 minutes from Otule, Gardner, Crowder, DJO, J Wilson, and Blue (average of 27 mpg each)--without the contribution of ANY minutes from Mayo, Anderson, or Jones.  

The other question is whether its reasonable to expect that Mayo and Anderson can get significant minutes as frosh when the higher rated E Williams and Jones didn't.  Buzz hasn't been known for being generous with minutes to freshman.  Blue got minutes as a frosh, but he was higher rated.  Gardner got minutes--but he would be analogous to D Wilson this year as a position player at a position with little team depth.  Mayo seems to be behind Blue and DJO, Anderson would seem to be behind Wilson & Crowder.





 

[dgies9156]

If Van gets 25 mpg we are in a world of hurt.

Are you nuts?

If Vander gets 25 minutes, it is because he earned them and has mitigated the freshman fobiles that he faced last year.

Here's hoping Vander is everything we think he is!!!!

[brewcity77]

After addressing the point, we can get 160 minutes from Otule, Gardner, Crowder, DJO, J Wilson, and Blue (average of 27 mpg each)--without the contribution of ANY minutes from Mayo, Anderson, or Jones.

27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.

[Marquette84]

27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.

I think you have to look at the end-of-season performance.  We were already getting close to that out of them.

Otule and Gardner combined for an average of 33.5 mpg in the six games in the BET and NCAA tournaments.  40 combined doesn't seem unreachable.