Jimmy Butler -- 1st round?

[NYWarrior]

Over the weekend The Big Lead updated their mock draft and slotted Jimmy Butler in as a first-rounder to the Bulls.

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/05/30/an-nba-mock-draft-where-derrick-williams-doesnt-go-2nd/

Mock drafts don't mean much but this is the second time I've seen Butler projected as one of the Bulls' first round picks. The Hoops Report had JFB pegged in this slot for a week or so.  http://thehoopsreport.com/draft.aspx.  Other sites have Butler going in the middle of round two.

While Jimmy established his draft-worthiness at Portsmouth, it seems that his interviews and play at the Chicago combine actually improved his draft positioning.  According to Draft Express, Butler was one of the top spot-up three-point shooters at the Combine, nailing 18 of 25 from deep (wow), http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2011-NBA-Draft-Combine-Shooting-Drills-Results-3726/  

We all knew that Butler was a good athlete (39" vertical at the Combine), capable of defending and playing multiple positions effectively.  Given the mindset he brings to the court -- has this guy ever played out of character -- adding three-point shooting to the mix could allow him to sneak into the first round.  

[NavinRJohnson]

If I were the Bulls watching the likes of Kyle Korver trying to guard LeBron James, I'd think long and hard about taking Jimmy Butler if for no other reason than that. The Bulls are obviously in a position that they need to build to beat the Heat in the next few years. They are not likely to find a star at their spot, so they might as well try to nab a guy who can potentially do something...anything defensively against LBJ. Butler just may be that guy.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

If I were the Bulls watching the likes of Kyle Korver trying to guard LeBron James, I'd think long and hard about taking Jimmy Butler if for no other reason than that. The Bulls are obviously in a position that they need to build to beat the Heat in the next few years. They are not likely to find a star at their spot, so they might as well try to nab a guy who can potentially do something...anything defensively against LBJ. Butler just may be that guy.

The Bulls aren't going to take Jimmy Butler. IMHO Jimmy's NBA game will likely look a lot like Ronnie Brewer's: solid on the defensive end, suspect half-court offensive skill set, hard worker, who can score in transition. The Bulls already have Jimmy Butler. The defense wasn't the problem for the Bulls; you aren't going to be able to completely shut down LeBrat (and God knows JFB wouldn't be able to). The Bulls are going to target another three-point threat and look for someone who can create something himself (that is if they don't work out a trade). Think Marshon Brooks, Tyler Honeycutt, Josh Selby, Shumpert, and Jereme Richmond are all intriguing outside options, although at the Bulls position I think there potentially is greater upside with inside guys like JaJuan Johnson, Trey Tompkins or Keith Benson.

As for JFB, as I said I think he has a good shot at finding a role a lot like Ronnie Brewer, just don't think the Bulls have a need there. 

[MU_Iceman]

As for JFB, as I said I think he has a good shot at finding a role a lot like Ronnie Brewer, just don't think the Bulls have a need there. 

Don't forget though, Brewer only has one full year left on his contract and then the bulls have an option on him for '12-'13.  At his salary level, his expiring contract may be desireable for teams in a financial pinch depending on how the new CBA plays out...

Also, probably more importantly, it is well documented that Thibideau does not like / trust rookies...James Johnson started and was effective for the Raptors, Thibs didn't let him sniff the court even in a blowout.  JFB may be a good second round pick-up that could provide some toughness in practice and then potentially contribute if/when Brewer is shown the door.

This years draft is pretty mediocre, the bulls aren't drafting for immediate impact players, they're drafting future reserves...personally, I'd love to see Marshon Brooks and Jimmy donning a Bulls jersey...but that may be wishful thinking...

[wadesworld]

This years draft is pretty mediocre, the bulls aren't drafting for immediate impact players, they're drafting future reserves...personally, I'd love to see Marshon Brooks and Jimmy donning a Bulls jersey...but that may be wishful thinking...

I don't mean to get this thread completely off track, but I completely agree that this draft is pretty weak.  This is why I hope that the Cavs try to trade up and get the numbers 1 and 2 picks in the draft.  I honestly think that would be a waste.  This is one of the worst drafts to have the top 2 picks.  I think both Irving and Williams will be nice NBA players, but I have my doubts as to whether or not they can be cornerstones for an NBA franchise.  I just can't see it from either of them.  I feel like this would be a horrible move, and to be honest I can't stand Dan Gilbert.  In my opinion, he came off much worse than LBJ did in terms of "the decision."

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

I agree that JFB will make his early mark defensively, but MU fans should be the last to discount his abilities on offense.  His junior season he averaged 15 PPG on 53 FG% and 50 3PT%.  Over the last 2 seasons he hit 40% from 3. JFB was one of the most efficient scorers in the entire NCAA over the last 2 seasons.  Most of the more heralded scorers simply shot the ball more.  Jimmy could have scored 20+ AND still be more efficient than the majority of them.  Just because guys decide to take 4 three's a game does not make them better shooters or scorers.  Some of these guys that do mocks get caught up in numbers,  but scouts are fully aware that Jimmy COULD have scored much more.  The scouts will like the team first mentality of JFB and his restrained approach on offense will gel well with teammates that are more talented.  The "chuckers" are often notorious malcontents at the end of the bench.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

I agree that JFB will make his early mark defensively, but MU fans should be the last to discount his abilities on offense.  His junior season he averaged 15 PPG on 53 FG% and 50 3PT%.  Over the last 2 seasons he hit 40% from 3. JFB was one of the most efficient scorers in the entire NCAA over the last 2 seasons.  Most of the more heralded scorers simply shot the ball more.  Jimmy could have scored 20+ AND still be more efficient than the majority of them.  Just because guys decide to take 4 three's a game does not make them better shooters or scorers.  Some of these guys that do mocks get caught up in numbers,  but scouts are fully aware that Jimmy COULD have scored much more.  The scouts will like the team first mentality of JFB and his restrained approach on offense will gel well with teammates that are more talented.  The "chuckers" are often notorious malcontents at the end of the bench.

While I don't have an interest in criticizing JFB's game, I think it is important to note that being an efficient scorer in college doesn't necessarily translate into being an efficient scorer at the NBA level. JFB is a great team basketball player and that will serve him well in his professional career even if he is never a starter anywhere. But to say that JFB could have kept up his efficiency numbers anywhere close to what he had if he was caring the load a guy like Jimmer or Kemba Walker is just wrong.

JFB's efficiency numbers are so high because he didn't take bad shots, and got to the FT line at will. It is easier to scale back your game and increase efficiency than it is for a guy like JFB to keep up his numbers. I'm still not sold on JFB being an effective spot up 3 point shooter, and the 15 foot jumpers he relied on in college won't be there at the next level. Additionally, bigger, stronger, faster defenders at the NBA level won't resort to fouling JFB as often.

Guys like Fredette and Walker were facing defenses designed to stop them. They won't be faced with that at the next level. They will be forced to take a less prominent role and shoot fewer shots, but this is going to actually help their efficiency and I'm more confident in there ability to find ways to score when they do get the ball.

As for this year's draft... ya it's terrible... although don't sleep on the foreign guys like Kanter, Monteuinas, Vasly, and Valanciunas. I think there are 2 potential all-stars in there.

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

While I don't have an interest in criticizing JFB's game, I think it is important to note that being an efficient scorer in college doesn't necessarily translate into being an efficient scorer at the NBA level. JFB is a great team basketball player and that will serve him well in his professional career even if he is never a starter anywhere. But to say that JFB could have kept up his efficiency numbers anywhere close to what he had if he was caring the load a guy like Jimmer or Kemba Walker is just wrong.

The amount of shots required to have gotten to around 20 PPG would NOT have affected his efficiency very much.  Of course,  getting to a Jimmer or Kemba level of scoring would and that is why I didn't say 25+ PPG.  My example was more in the comparison range of a Jordan Hamilton or Klay Thompson who took 6+ three's a game.  To be clear,  I am not saying Jimmy is as good of a shooter as those two.  I am saying Jimmy could have scored just as many points and just as efficiently as those two had he taken more shots. Here's a breakdown comparison:

Jimmy Butler 15.7 PPG on 10.3 FGA.......1.5 points per FGA
Hamilton      18.6 PPG on 15.3 FGA.......1.2 points per FGA
Thompson    21.6 PPG on 16.2 FGA.......1.3 points per FGA

Obviously JFB gets a boost from the foul line,  but you can expect that boost to continue when taking more possessions.  Even if you drastically changed his points per FGA to an even 1 on the extra possessions,  he would still be scoring significantly more than Hamilton and the same as Thompson.

[drewm88]

I don't mean to get this thread completely off track, but I completely agree that this draft is pretty weak.  This is why I hope that the Cavs try to trade up and get the numbers 1 and 2 picks in the draft.  I honestly think that would be a waste.  This is one of the worst drafts to have the top 2 picks.  I think both Irving and Williams will be nice NBA players, but I have my doubts as to whether or not they can be cornerstones for an NBA franchise.  I just can't see it from either of them.  I feel like this would be a horrible move, and to be honest I can't stand Dan Gilbert.  In my opinion, he came off much worse than LBJ did in terms of "the decision."

The rumors I've seen have Cleveland dealing with Detroit to get the #8 in exchange for taking Rip Hamilton, who they would buy out. Then, they flip #4 and #8 for #2. I'm sure the Pistons would be covering virtually all of the cost, so what's there to lose for Cleveland? It only costs their LeBron trade exception.